Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
So a player with a 1% risk of ruin should react to losing his entire bankroll due in full part to negative variance in the same way someone who knew there was a 100% chance of rain should? Variance is variance, but saying there is a 100% chance that any given amount of variance will occur is wrong. I don't care how eloquently Tommy Angelo put it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Yeah, this. Tommy Angelo writes counterproductive nonsense. The idea that your reaction to being out drawn should be "w00t! I got it in good!" is delusional. It can apply to one bad beat, or even two, but no one ever ran like UCD has run and said that to all 15 buy ins evaporating. It's not possible, and telling people to try just sets them up for failure. Now they're thinking "why can't I handle this swing like Angelo says to? There must be something wrong with me," when, in truth, it simply isn't possible to be indifferent to negative variance.
I do agree that reminding yourself that you got it in good is a useful way to manage the emotion of losing to a huge suckout, though. But not having the emotions is an impossible ideal.
I agree & I didn't mean to come across as if you should take such a bad run like a Bot. It's not possible. Hell, if I ran cool for 3 months straight & was down say only $10.00, I wouldn't be impressed with poker. However, knowing that it isn't my play that costing me the $$ is a confidence builder.
I'd be looking for ways to overcome the emotional downswing that rides along with the downswing. As far as that 1% risk of ruin - the chances of winning the Powerball is >300 million:1 yet someone continues to win.
**** happens. A few months back, someone I know was dealt KK two hands in a row. No big deal right? Well the same V was dealt AA those same 2 hands in a row. Hmmmm. Finally, both times the guy with KK flopped a set & won both pots.
I posted this in the probability section, asking what the odds were & the answer I got was 771k*771k:1.
What Tommy Angelo is saying, IMO, is that it is going to happen to someone. So, when it's you that it happens to, be aware of the fact that anything is possible & be mentally tough & work through it.
If you're a good poker play - This too shall pass.