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Old 09-09-2015, 05:53 PM   #10376
spikeraw22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think the seat change issue is very much player pool dependent. The guys who are higher stakes regs have a much different view than those of us still slumming it in the lower games. I hop around all the time and no one cares or thinks too much of it. Even if they have an idea about what I'm doing they don't know what to do about it nor do they have any inclination. Since I'm a nice guy nobody ever cares that I'm poaching easy money. If RP is as big of a DB as he says I can see why people might get cross with him about it.
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Old 09-09-2015, 09:55 PM   #10377
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

in my hours at higher stakes I would say seat changing is very rare. like the above poster mentioned the risk of making the special guest feel poached and making the game tougher is too high for most plus normally you are trying to beat everyone in the modern 5/10 environment due to how few big losers are in the games.

also my thought on the seat change thing is this: I never move to the left of a good player. I may move to have position of the fish. The reason I don't move to the left of good players is that the majority of winning regs in games aren't picking on you anyway. I would rather have a good rec on my right and a pro to my left than a good rec to my left and a pro to my right.

you can even use an aggro reg to your left to give you visibility in games that tend to have lots of multi way pots. bunch of other stuff. plus position is marginally important. money flows to the left regardless and if a reg is weaker than me I'm going to be able to further marginalize his advantage. another thing is if a guy moves to your left he can't really just 3b you like crazy because he risks losing the weaker players out of the pot.

also as a population read people don't adjust or play tough enough or just go bonkers 3 betting other regs. it's just not as much of a big deal as people think it is.
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Old 09-10-2015, 01:27 AM   #10378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJacob View Post
Worst part IMO is people constantly asking for the button(s) with no intent of changing seats.

Usually when one guy asks for the button the dealer runs out from other people thinking they need a button too. Most common seat change I see in Vegas is people wanting a view.
If they have it, you can't have it. It's the same reason the Yankees tried to sign Doug Mirabelli, the same reason the Pats signed Wayne before GB could even talk to him, the same reason to draft 3 great QBs/Defenses in fantasy.
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Old 09-11-2015, 09:23 AM   #10379
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I have come to the conclusion, based on what I've read in books & articles, along with my variance over the last 795 hrs of live play, that one needs ~2350 hours of playing live to establish a solid win rate.

I base this on 25 hands per hour [which you won't always get] which is 58,750 hands.

I play 25-30 hrs per week. That's actually sitting at the table being dealt into the hands.
That's 27.5 hrs * 48 weeks a year. I take time off.

That's 1320 hours & I need 2350 hrs to get 58750 hands. I've played 795 hours already, so I need another 1555 hours of play, or 56.5 more weeks of play.

So I think I'll have a solid win rate established in 1.17 years, or, ~14 more months. That being around election time, November 2016. Thoughts?
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Old 09-11-2015, 09:37 AM   #10380
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I've heard 1500 hours is a good gauge but obv the bigger the sample the more reliable the outcome.
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Old 09-11-2015, 09:58 AM   #10381
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I have come to the conclusion, based on what I've read in books & articles, along with my variance over the last 795 hrs of live play, that one needs ~2350 hours of playing live to establish a solid win rate.

I base this on 25 hands per hour [which you won't always get] which is 58,750 hands.

I play 25-30 hrs per week. That's actually sitting at the table being dealt into the hands.
That's 27.5 hrs * 48 weeks a year. I take time off.

That's 1320 hours & I need 2350 hrs to get 58750 hands. I've played 795 hours already, so I need another 1555 hours of play, or 56.5 more weeks of play.

So I think I'll have a solid win rate established in 1.17 years, or, ~14 more months. That being around election time, November 2016. Thoughts?
My sample is right at 4k hours. 3k of the hours are plo high only. Are u asking about hold em or plo samples?

I think with plo one would need around 4k hours in a similar game.

My swings are huge and sample gets skewed and distorted because I have played plo as small as 1-2 on those electronic machines. To 1-3 spread limit hold em thats like limit hold em and nl hybrid. To 50-100 plo.

If your stake is similar its way easier to figure out.


Basically confidence intervals is what we are talking about. So the way to frame this would be like "after 1k hours we can say with 70 percent certainty that our expected winrate lies between x and y."

After 5k hours maybe we get to 95 percent certainty. Etc.

I just made the numbers up but im sure you get the idea.




There is no absolute.

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Old 09-11-2015, 11:09 AM   #10382
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I have come to the conclusion, based on what I've read in books & articles, along with my variance over the last 795 hrs of live play, that one needs ~2350 hours of playing live to establish a solid win rate.

I base this on 25 hands per hour [which you won't always get] which is 58,750 hands.

I play 25-30 hrs per week. That's actually sitting at the table being dealt into the hands.
That's 27.5 hrs * 48 weeks a year. I take time off.

That's 1320 hours & I need 2350 hrs to get 58750 hands. I've played 795 hours already, so I need another 1555 hours of play, or 56.5 more weeks of play.

So I think I'll have a solid win rate established in 1.17 years, or, ~14 more months. That being around election time, November 2016. Thoughts?
I'm beginning to think it might take lifetimes to gain confidence in our winrate.

I'm currently sitting at 8.3 bb/hr at 2,398 hours of 1/3 NL. My last 354 hours (i.e. 2015), I'm winning at an OMC rate of a measly 2 bb/hr.

GIhavezeroconfidenceinmywinrateG
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Old 09-11-2015, 11:14 AM   #10383
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Maybe the game is just passing you by GG
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Old 09-11-2015, 11:18 AM   #10384
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm beginning to think it might take lifetimes to gain confidence in our winrate.

I'm currently sitting at 8.3 bb/hr at 2,398 hours of 1/3 NL. My last 354 hours (i.e. 2015), I'm winning at an OMC rate of a measly 2 bb/hr.

GIhavezeroconfidenceinmywinrateG
Better start recording HH's
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Old 09-11-2015, 11:24 AM   #10385
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Maybe the game is just passing you by GG
You just so jealous of the 2 bb/hr.

GI'mawinner!G
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Old 09-11-2015, 11:26 AM   #10386
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Better start recording HH's
Lol.

M's post actually got me to thinking about exactly how much of our winrate does revolve around AA/KK. I wonder what a only-play-AA/KK rock-it-up winrate looks like?

Gbetterthanmycurrentone?G
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Old 09-11-2015, 11:29 AM   #10387
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
I've heard 1500 hours is a good gauge but obv the bigger the sample the more reliable the outcome.
The problem is by the time you hit 1500 hours your winrate has changed (Hopefully because you've gotten better, but maybe you've picked up some big leaks or the games have gotten worse)

You'll never know!
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Old 09-11-2015, 11:55 AM   #10388
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
The problem is by the time you hit 1500 hours your winrate has changed (Hopefully because you've gotten better, but maybe you've picked up some big leaks or the games have gotten worse)

You'll never know!
this

it's pretty much impossible to ever have an accurate wr for live play. you just can't play enough hands fast enough.
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Old 09-11-2015, 04:58 PM   #10389
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lol.

M's post actually got me to thinking about exactly how much of our winrate does revolve around AA/KK. I wonder what a only-play-AA/KK rock-it-up winrate looks like?

Gbetterthanmycurrentone?G
The problem with this is that although llsnl players don't adjust they WILL adjust to extremes. Like playing 1 hand a day or every hand.
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Old 09-11-2015, 05:22 PM   #10390
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
The problem with this is that although llsnl players don't adjust they WILL adjust to extremes. Like playing 1 hand a day or every hand.
but will they really adjust? or will they have sat with you long enough to realize what your doing?

on average we'll get AA/KK once every ~4.5 hours if we're playing 25 hands/hr. i guess after a little while of doing this, you'd probably become known as an uber nit if you play in the same room.


it sounds boring as **** though.
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Old 09-11-2015, 05:24 PM   #10391
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One may argue that KK+ becomes -RIO in a room with mostly regs.
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Old 09-11-2015, 07:29 PM   #10392
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so I am crossing the 400 hour mark at 1/2/3 and am currently in the middle of a 15 buyin downswing.

While I am not worried about this (have played 2 million hands lifetime, I've definitely seen sicker) I am beginning to have my desire to play come into question. I have lost pretty much all AA to KK this year, and the last 3 times I flopped straights I lost by showdown.

How do you guys keep coming in when this is happening?
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Old 09-11-2015, 07:50 PM   #10393
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That's interesting. When I run into bad streaks, I usually can't wait to get back onto the table because I know that I'll be able to turn it around.
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Old 09-11-2015, 08:46 PM   #10394
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lol.

M's post actually got me to thinking about exactly how much of our winrate does revolve around AA/KK. I wonder what a only-play-AA/KK rock-it-up winrate looks like?

Gbetterthanmycurrentone?G
just got through updating my AA/KK spreadsheet that I'm keeping for the purposes of the COTM article we did:

Actual WR month to date with AA and KK: 13.25bb/hand.

Equity adjusted WR: 21.67bb/hand.

Variance: Got AA in v KK pre and held; KK < AJo aipf; 4/11 hands were folded to my PFR.

Math: you get AA and KK once each every 8 hours, or one every 4 hours. So 25% of your AA/KK WR is equal to your hourly expectation with AA and KK.

At my current EV adjusted WR, that would be 21.67 * .25 = 5.42bb/hr = $10.80 per hour.

(if you only ever played AA and KK, with that win rate), but you'd lose $10/hr to the blinds per hour [assuming 30 hands per hour at a nine handed table, so your actual WR would be $0.80/hour)

Back to my spreadsheet:

AA and KK have been really swingy so far (true of my whole month, unfortunately), so no firm conclusions to draw. ATM, AA and KK are 82% of my profit month to date; equity adjusted they would be 88% of my profits month to date, lol. But I KNOW small sample variance is affecting that number, I have run almost impossibly bad in three sessions this month and almost impossibly good in one, with only one of my 5 sessions being sort of normal.

It looks like my 50% of your winnings are AA and KK guesstimate in the COTM OP is probably going to be pretty close, even in the small sample I'll have for this month.
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Old 09-11-2015, 08:49 PM   #10395
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I find downswings due to obvious bad luck pretty easy to get over. Eh, got 2 outed, bye 3k pot, what can ya do, lol. But then again thankfully I've never been on one of those of soul-crushing length.

The ones that eat at me are when the decisions are debatable ("if V never has xx this should be a fold... is that in his range or was stacking off spew?", "well that was his 3rd 3bet, he happened to have AA here but could he really have been light?" etc) or I just seem to be spewing without showdown and can never win a pot.

@mpethy -- I remember one of the uNLFR COTWs saying your winrate with AA = your overall winrate. As in you break even with every other hand put together. ofc that's for online and that was back in the day (well, not THE day, the other day) Gonna be neat to see the end results for live.

Last edited by DK Barrel; 09-11-2015 at 08:54 PM.
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Old 09-11-2015, 08:56 PM   #10396
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I find downswings due to obvious bad luck pretty easy to get over. Eh, got 2 outed, bye 3k pot, what can ya do, lol. But then again thankfully I've never been on one of those of soul-crushing length.

The ones that eat at me are when the decisions are debatable ("if V never has xx this should be a fold... is that in his range or was stacking off spew?", "well that was his 3rd 3bet, he happened to have AA here but could he really have been light?" etc) or I just seem to be spewing without showdown and can never win a pot.
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
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Old 09-11-2015, 09:00 PM   #10397
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I would consider cashing out with a stop win if it is affecting your psyche, and it certainly seem that way.
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Old 09-11-2015, 09:01 PM   #10398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Math: you get AA and KK once each every 8 hours, or one every 4 hours. So 25% of your AA/KK WR is equal to your hourly expectation with AA and KK.

At my current EV adjusted WR, that would be 21.67 * .25 = 5.42bb/hr = $10.80 per hour.

(if you only ever played AA and KK, with that win rate), but you'd lose $10/hr to the blinds per hour [assuming 30 hands per hour at a nine handed table, so your actual WR would be $0.80/hour)
Nitpicky, but does this account for AA/KK getting when in the blinds?
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Old 09-11-2015, 09:14 PM   #10399
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Nitpicky, but does this account for AA/KK getting when in the blinds?
Nice catch, lol, I realized it does not after I submitted. Decided to let it go because "surely no one would be that nit picky..."

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Old 09-11-2015, 09:52 PM   #10400
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I would consider cashing out with a stop win if it is affecting your psyche, and it certainly seem that way.
Ya stop wins, as well as stop losses are pretty crucial sometimes. Especially if game gets really deep and you can get stacked. Im usually not having more than 10-15 percent of my roll on table. Ill push to 20 percent in soft games where I cover since it mitigates some risk.

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