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Old 09-11-2015, 10:59 PM   #10401
spikeraw22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse View Post
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
Fold pre. You're spewing obviously.
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Old 09-12-2015, 03:44 AM   #10402
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse View Post
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
damn you get dealt AA alot, what a tease when it never holds

the sickest beat i saw was AA vs QQ all in pre for something ridiculous like 500bbs deep each, they ran it 3 times, QQ won all 3 times lol. Queen first board, straight second board, queen third board.

variance is such a bish. I also lose motivation when running bad, tho I'm blessed by the poker gods and have yet to experience and substantial downswing, did you consider taking a small 1 week break?
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Old 09-12-2015, 04:06 AM   #10403
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse View Post
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
Having this info makes it easy to return since you know the downswing isn't due to your play. You can return with total confidence in your game. It's just variance.

Tommy Angelo writes in "The Elements of Poker" that a player getting upset over downswings due to variance is kinda' like a person getting upset when he goes out at night & it rains when the weather called for a 100% chance of rain. You know there is going to be variance in poker, so why get upset when it happens.

I've never had a 4.5k downswing, but if I did, it would really be helpful to have the info you have to keep my confidence. Since I play live, I won't have it available if it happens.

I do remember hands like when I flopped a set of 7s vs. my V's flopped set of A's & I turned quads & was free-rolling going into the river with a chance of winning 65k for my share of the bad beat.
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Old 09-12-2015, 10:48 AM   #10404
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

been a pro poker player for 6 years and the idea of a stop win has never once crossed my mind (degen??)
I mean you have those emotional moments where you think it would be nice to win x amount but then you just think ah yes but what about x+1
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Old 09-12-2015, 11:42 AM   #10405
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I guess pro by definition is anyone who plays poker and has no job.
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Old 09-12-2015, 02:23 PM   #10406
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Wouldn't it be like if there was a 20% chance of rain and it rained on you 7 times in a row when you tried to go out?
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Old 09-12-2015, 02:36 PM   #10407
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Wouldn't it be like if there was a 20% chance of rain and it rained on you 7 times in a row when you tried to go out?
Nah, you missed the point.
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Old 09-12-2015, 02:52 PM   #10408
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Lol I get the point. Variance is going to happen. Not everyone is going to go on the type of run he just described live though and it's foolish to compare that kind of bad run to a foregone conclusion.
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Old 09-12-2015, 03:06 PM   #10409
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse View Post
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
Silver lining is that this downswing is happening to you at 1/2/3 NL instead of a 2/3/5 deep stack game.
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Old 09-12-2015, 03:32 PM   #10410
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
Lol I get the point. Variance is going to happen. Not everyone is going to go on the type of run he just described live though and it's foolish to compare that kind of bad run to a foregone conclusion.
I don't mean to be rude but you really did miss the point.

I can't explain nearly as eloquently as Tommy Angelo so I just suggest reading EoP. It's essential for all players, imo.

It's like, variance is variance. We know it's there, it's what makes poker go. So saying "wait that's too much variance, I only wanted a little" is silly.

Last edited by DK Barrel; 09-12-2015 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 09-12-2015, 04:06 PM   #10411
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Silver lining is that this downswing is happening to you at 1/2/3 NL instead of a 2/3/5 deep stack game.
Im UP at 2/3/5 this year!!

I also work full time so the money is whatever. But it would be nice to have AA hold sometimes.
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Old 09-12-2015, 04:13 PM   #10412
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So a player with a 1% risk of ruin should react to losing his entire bankroll due in full part to negative variance in the same way someone who knew there was a 100% chance of rain should? Variance is variance, but saying there is a 100% chance that any given amount of variance will occur is wrong. I don't care how eloquently Tommy Angelo put it.
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Old 09-12-2015, 04:56 PM   #10413
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
So a player with a 1% risk of ruin should react to losing his entire bankroll due in full part to negative variance in the same way someone who knew there was a 100% chance of rain should? Variance is variance, but saying there is a 100% chance that any given amount of variance will occur is wrong. I don't care how eloquently Tommy Angelo put it.
Yeah, this. Tommy Angelo writes counterproductive nonsense. The idea that your reaction to being out drawn should be "w00t! I got it in good!" is delusional. It can apply to one bad beat, or even two, but no one ever ran like UCD has run and said that to all 15 buy ins evaporating. It's not possible, and telling people to try just sets them up for failure. Now they're thinking "why can't I handle this swing like Angelo says to? There must be something wrong with me," when, in truth, it simply isn't possible to be indifferent to negative variance.

I do agree that reminding yourself that you got it in good is a useful way to manage the emotion of losing to a huge suckout, though. But not having the emotions is an impossible ideal.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:05 PM   #10414
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Tbh my biggest leak is keeping track if I'm up/down in a session.

I think it makes me a fish if it affects me emotionally or affects my play.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:08 PM   #10415
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Don't really understand why one would track more often than once a month.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:08 PM   #10416
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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Having this info makes it easy to return since you know the downswing isn't due to your play. You can return with total confidence in your game. It's just variance.

Tommy Angelo writes in "The Elements of Poker" that a player getting upset over downswings due to variance is kinda' like a person getting upset when he goes out at night & it rains when the weather called for a 100% chance of rain. You know there is going to be variance in poker, so why get upset when it happens.

I've never had a 4.5k downswing, but if I did, it would really be helpful to have the info you have to keep my confidence. Since I play live, I won't have it available if it happens.

I do remember hands like when I flopped a set of 7s vs. my V's flopped set of A's & I turned quads & was free-rolling going into the river with a chance of winning 65k for my share of the bad beat.
You obviously haven't read the COTM article currently at the top of the page.

The major way you run good or bad is all in EV. Tracking your all in EV is child's play. I kept a written record of it (and lots of other stats) for the first two years I was out here. After doing it in writing for two years, I can now do it easily enough in my head, and I just keep a running tally each month, and focus on tracking other stuff.

"I play live, so I can't accumulate data" is a fallacy. "I play live, so I can't EASILY accumulate data is closer to the truth." But if you don't accumulate data, it is a choice not to do so.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:12 PM   #10417
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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
Don't really understand why one would track more often than once a month.
I don't understand why you wouldn't.

There's no best answer. Just do whatever keeps you calmest.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:15 PM   #10418
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Because the swings could adversely affect your play is why I would recommend not constantly tracking.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:22 PM   #10419
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Because the swings could adversely affect your play is why I would recommend not constantly tracking.
How can you be so oblivious to your results that you don't know you're downswinging? That doesn't strike me as possible, tbh.

But I DO NOT mean to criticize. This is the sort of stuff people think about when they think they have their game under control--looking for another tiny edge. I think that's fine, but I think the edge comes from doing what makes you comfortable, not what someone else recommends.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:25 PM   #10420
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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
Because the swings could adversely affect your play is why I would recommend not constantly tracking.
Also: I don't see how it is possible to track the information you need to track for the IRS and not have current knowledge of whether you are up or down.

So I just don't really think ignorance is plausible.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:25 PM   #10421
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If you track your results you may chase numbers. We saw Johnny do this a couple weeks back in this very thread. Chasing losses is neither logical nor productive.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:27 PM   #10422
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Calculating a live WR over 2k hours is so lol. It's only 60k hands. Even trying to calculate a reliable WR over 10k hours is absurd.

I can think of plenty of live guys who aren't great but somehow always seem to stack the fish, run good in their biggest pots, and more importantly never really run bad for a significant amount of hands.

Obv there's also lots of great players that have had the opposite experience.

--

All that matters is identifying mistakes in the current game you're playing, then estimating your EV you can extract from each mistake by implementing the most optimal strategy.

After that the results are entirely based on variance.

It's not a comforting thought but that that just the world poker operates in.

15 buy ins is nothing.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:27 PM   #10423
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IRS does not have any daily tracking requirements to my knowledge but I am no accountant.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:29 PM   #10424
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If you track your results you may chase numbers. We saw Johnny do this a couple weeks back in this very thread. Chasing losses is neither logical nor productive.
Sure. But chasing losses is not because you track results, it's because you are a degen. Treat the underlying disease, not the symptom, imo.

(Not you, "you" in general).

But, that's my last, because I honestly think the right answer varies from person to person.
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Old 09-12-2015, 05:31 PM   #10425
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IRS does not have any daily tracking requirements to my knowledge but I am no accountant.
I'm not an accountant either but I'm pretty sure you actually do need to track it and they need to be hand written (ie the irs will not accept an excel spreadsheet). Well, you only need to track it if you're ever audited...
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