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Old 06-22-2016, 08:38 PM   #15426
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Straight up winrate analysis baby ... woooo!


Results from 2016:
76 sessions total, 58 NLHE (18 PLO)

$1/2 NLHE:
267.6 hours for $3762.0, or $14.06/hr

$1/2 PLO/RxR:
59.9 hours for $1, or $0.0167/hr (Hooray!)




As happens every time I look at this, playing PLO may not be worth my time on a shortish roll. (Although even at dead even I'm probably doing better than 60% of the player pool.)

Running the way I have in the last 100 hours is always frustrating. General brickiness in smallish pots, and a couple of gnarly beats (1 outer for $500? Sure, why not ... which way is BBV again?), but it will turn around.
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:44 AM   #15427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
this just in....taking shots at tournaments then bricking them is bad for your bankroll

Started the year with a BR of 19k.

Cash started badly this year but after a good run in Vegas, my cash stats for the year are back in small profit - up 1k from about 50 hours.

Have bricked 6 tournaments and am now down 8k for the year.
MTTs are extremely high variance, playing with less than 20 buy ins is asking to go busto, especially if you arent selling action.
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:49 AM   #15428
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
MTTs are extremely high variance, playing with less than 20 buy ins is asking to go busto, especially if you arent selling action.


Agreed. And it's worse - I had less than 10 buy ins. Played a 2k and a 2.2k amongst my donkaments as well as a 1.5 and 1.1k

My roll is only nominal in the sense that it can be re-plenished with life funds, albeit I won't let that happen.
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:09 AM   #15429
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I think the only logical MTT approach would be to keep playing them by coming up with money, make a decent score, and put that entire winning into a new dedicated tourney roll and repeat.
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:18 AM   #15430
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Is it even possible to win at MTTs given that all of your decent wins are going to be taxed to hell? I've never played in any big tournaments before. I have seen a $130 going on every Sunday at my local Casino and the play is absolutely atrocious. More or less, the same players play in a quarterly tournament that is a $600 buyin. At what point to the tournaments start becoming more diluted by competent players?
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:19 AM   #15431
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It may never happen simply because of the variance.
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:26 AM   #15432
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I think the only logical MTT approach would be to keep playing them by coming up with money, make a decent score, and put that entire winning into a new dedicated tourney roll and repeat.
I do something like that.

my POV is that I don't play enough and don't play high/well enough at cash to make any real improvement to my life/life roll - winning 10k ish per year from 300 hours ish is great as a profitable hobby but doesn't change anything in my life at all.

I enjoy playing cash and work hard to get better at it, but I use my profits from cash to fund shots at big ish buy in tournies where a win/top few finish really could make a difference. Likely I'll play 5ish 1-2k buy in tournaments a year and then about the same number of $400 buy in ones

of course, I have to hope I run well because I'm never ever gonna conquer the variance of tournaments and it still really sucks busting out of a 2k tournament. To date, I've run/done pretty well in the tournaments and I'm probably up more overall in donkaments than in cash games, but this year's losing streak...which is only about 5/6 tournaments overall and thus nothing in the scheme of things, does really hurt.
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:46 AM   #15433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I think the only logical MTT approach would be to keep playing them by coming up with money, make a decent score, and put that entire winning into a new dedicated tourney roll and repeat.
I have a short/intermediate term plan of getting the BR back up to 50k and then siphoning off maybe 5-10% of profits thereafter for a tournament roll. I'd like to get to the point where I am playing the $500-1000 buyins that occur every 3-4 months, but short of hitting a score early on that looks to be a 12-24 month proposition to be properly rolled for (ie: being able to do multiple Day 1's). Not sure how feasible that is but I think incorporating tournaments into the equation once the cash game machine is firing on all cylinders seems inevitable.
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:47 AM   #15434
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I think a successful cash player who buys into tournaments with life changing prizes is like a non-******ed version of buying lottery tickets. Similar concept but with say +10% EV over cost instead of like -70% or whatever.
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Old 06-23-2016, 02:49 AM   #15435
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Curious to see how other players work paying bills into the bankroll. I have monthly bills that total $1226/month and I divide them by 4 to get my weekly amount needed to deduct from my roll which is $306. It helps me keep focused and when i lose it helps me to take a small approach and that I only need to win 50 or so dollars a day to pay bills. Obviously I want to win a lot more then that but it makes small wins not seem so bad and loses not impossible to overcome. Does anyone else do this? How do you guys factor in bill money from the roll? I feel like there is probably a better way
I pay my mortgage 3-6 months in advance. I never feel any pressure to "pay bills" when I hit the brick wall of variance, which is nice to have one less thing to worry about when you lose like 10k in a week.

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Old 06-23-2016, 03:33 AM   #15436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I have a short/intermediate term plan of getting the BR back up to 50k and then siphoning off maybe 5-10% of profits thereafter for a tournament roll. I'd like to get to the point where I am playing the $500-1000 buyins that occur every 3-4 months, but short of hitting a score early on that looks to be a 12-24 month proposition to be properly rolled for (ie: being able to do multiple Day 1's). Not sure how feasible that is but I think incorporating tournaments into the equation once the cash game machine is firing on all cylinders seems inevitable.
I haven't really put in any real thought into this, so take it for what its worth.

If your hourly is $40/hr and you spent $500 each shot and 6 hours on average (something like 7, 5, 4, 2, 2, 9, 8, 6, 7, 10hrs), the cost alone is:

$40 * 6 * 10 + $500 * 10 = $7400.

Assuming you are ITM 15% of those times for average cash of 2x tourney BI.

-$7400 + 1.5 * $1000 = -$5900.

I mean, how do people actually make money playing tourney?
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:35 AM   #15437
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You don't make money long term by min cashing. Werebeer already explained it well.
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:40 AM   #15438
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Originally Posted by WereBeer View Post
I think a successful cash player who buys into tournaments with life changing prizes is like a non-******ed version of buying lottery tickets. Similar concept but with say +10% EV over cost instead of like -70% or whatever.
yes, exactly - you made my point far better than I did

The standard of play on day 1 of most 1500 tournaments is so incredibly bad that there's a real chance of some decent run good leading to a big stack and a great foundation for a big score.

for johnnybuz though, trying to make a living out of poker, I think the equation needs to be far more conservative than for somebody like me who has a stable income stream outside of poker and can be far more aggressive around shot taking
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:47 AM   #15439
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RP, in your example, the player has a massively negative ROI without even factoring the opportunity cost of the time. So, of course it looks really bad, because he's losing $350 per tournament to begin with. If you give him a 20% ROI (good but not insane) it's closer at
-$1400 when factoring in opportunity cost.

So, I would make 2 cases for tournaments (at least). For one, you could attempt to find larger buyin tournaments to a point where your ROI would make it a more cost effective decision, but I don't think that's really feasible for a lot of reasons. Secondly, and the best reason which was alluded to earlier, is the lottery concept. You're capped at $40/hr by not playing the tournaments. However, if you play the tournament, you're only sacrificing a short amount of ev and there's a small chance you strike it rich.
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:47 AM   #15440
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Rp seriously relax... this isn't some contest.
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:59 AM   #15441
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Rp seriously relax... this isn't some contest.
I thought his response was relaxed, and despite his numbers being inflated, his larger point remains solid. There are other considerations though, such as if the person finds tournaments as a form of entertainment, or if they can play tournaments at times that would not interfere with their normal hourly, etc.
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Old 06-23-2016, 08:06 AM   #15442
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I haven't really put in any real thought into this, so take it for what its worth.

If your hourly is $40/hr and you spent $500 each shot and 6 hours on average (something like 7, 5, 4, 2, 2, 9, 8, 6, 7, 10hrs), the cost alone is:

$40 * 6 * 10 + $500 * 10 = $7400.

Assuming you are ITM 15% of those times for average cash of 2x tourney BI.

-$7400 + 1.5 * $1000 = -$5900.

I mean, how do people actually make money playing tourney?

Most donkament regs can't beat cash games for $40/h.

I know a local guy who plays mostly donkaments. Usually everything from dailys to 560s. He absolutely crushes. Always at FTs, binked a few 20k+ scores last year. He sometimes plays cash and I estimate he's a 5bb/h winner. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the only long term tourney player in the tournament player pool there with a +ROI.
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Old 06-23-2016, 08:57 AM   #15443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I haven't really put in any real thought into this, so take it for what its worth.

If your hourly is $40/hr and you spent $500 each shot and 6 hours on average (something like 7, 5, 4, 2, 2, 9, 8, 6, 7, 10hrs), the cost alone is:

$40 * 6 * 10 + $500 * 10 = $7400.

Assuming you are ITM 15% of those times for average cash of 2x tourney BI.

-$7400 + 1.5 * $1000 = -$5900.

I mean, how do people actually make money playing tourney?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post
You don't make money long term by min cashing. Werebeer already explained it well.
This is really the huge huge important part of this notion.
You absolutely can not be playing for a min cash. You need to be playing for 1st place every time you play. (Except even more lol survivor tournaments)
And that's what a lot of people playing tournaments at levels =<$500 don't really understand.

Because of how top heavy the payouts are for all of these tournaments if you're not getting 1st 2nd or 3rd with some decent % of your ITM times, you are just going to be a massive losing player.
The average 100 - 150 person tournament that I play in pays between 9 and 15 spots. With the top place taking ~28%. 2nd gets 18% and 3rd gets 14%.
The last 3 spots normally get a min cash of 2.2% or so. So in a 9 person payout, the other 3 aren't doing too bad, averaging 10% each. But in a 15 person pay out they are getting a measly 4% on average.

It's such a gross way to pay people out but it is what it is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Most donkament regs can't beat cash games for $40/h.

I know a local guy who plays mostly donkaments. Usually everything from dailys to 560s. He absolutely crushes. Always at FTs, binked a few 20k+ scores last year. He sometimes plays cash and I estimate he's a 5bb/h winner. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the only long term tourney player in the tournament player pool there with a +ROI.
This is also very true.
I drool over the thought of some of the 'better' tournament players coming to sit down at my cash table. They are completely different beasts, and most people don't have the skill set (or don't want to apply it) to be good at both. You get into habits that work well in on setting but not in the other.

Last edited by iraisetoomuch; 06-23-2016 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 06-23-2016, 09:12 AM   #15444
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
This is really the huge huge important part of this notion.
You absolutely can not be playing for a min cash. You need to be playing for 1st place every time you play. (Except even more lol survivor tournaments)
And that's what a lot of people playing tournaments at levels =<$500 don't really understand.

Because of how top heavy the payouts are for all of these tournaments if you're not getting 1st 2nd or 3rd with some decent % of your ITM times, you are just going to be a massive losing player.
The average 100 - 150 person tournament that I play in pays between 9 and 15 spots. With the top place taking ~28%. 2nd gets 18% and 3rd gets 14%.
The last 3 spots normally get a min cash of 2.2% or so. So in a 9 person payout, the other 3 aren't doing too bad, averaging 10% each. But in a 15 person pay out they are getting a measly 4% on average.

It's such a gross way to pay people out but it is what it is.



This is also very true.
I drool over the thought of some of the 'better' tournament players coming to sit down at my cash table. They are completely different beasts, and most people don't have the skill set (or don't want to apply it) to be good at both. You get into habits that work well in on setting but not in the other.
+1

Its amazing how different the same game is when played in a different format.
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Old 06-23-2016, 10:36 AM   #15445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
This is really the huge huge important part of this notion.
You absolutely can not be playing for a min cash. You need to be playing for 1st place every time you play. (Except even more lol survivor tournaments)
And that's what a lot of people playing tournaments at levels =<$500 don't really understand.

Because of how top heavy the payouts are for all of these tournaments if you're not getting 1st 2nd or 3rd with some decent % of your ITM times, you are just going to be a massive losing player.
The average 100 - 150 person tournament that I play in pays between 9 and 15 spots. With the top place taking ~28%. 2nd gets 18% and 3rd gets 14%.
The last 3 spots normally get a min cash of 2.2% or so. So in a 9 person payout, the other 3 aren't doing too bad, averaging 10% each. But in a 15 person pay out they are getting a measly 4% on average.

It's such a gross way to pay people out but it is what it is.
Maybe you guys actually agreed or didn't understand my quick example, but that was the point. The quick calculation was to show that a decent player at $40/hr has very little incentive to play $500 tourney.

Plus isn't it pretty obvious that everyone plays to win, not to min-cash? But these donkaments are designed to have much bigger element of luck than in cash games, almost like a fail-safe way of making sure that even the worst players have a shot of winning to keep them coming back.
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Old 06-23-2016, 10:38 AM   #15446
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
Most donkament regs can't beat cash games for $40/h.
Or that most players who can beat cash game for $40/hr wouldn't become a donkament reg.

That was my point.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:10 AM   #15447
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
$1/2 PLO/RxR:
59.9 hours for $1
Lol, awesome!

My 2016 1/3 NL giraffe looks pretty similar to your 1/2 NL: a dip, a rungood, and now ~flatlining, over about the same amount of hours (although half as many sessions, lol).

Ganyplansforthe$1?G
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:15 AM   #15448
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Maybe you guys actually agreed or didn't understand my quick example, but that was the point. The quick calculation was to show that a decent player at $40/hr has very little incentive to play $500 tourney.

Plus isn't it pretty obvious that everyone plays to win, not to min-cash? But these donkaments are designed to have much bigger element of luck than in cash games, almost like a fail-safe way of making sure that even the worst players have a shot of winning to keep them coming back.
Sort of agreeing.
Sort of clarifying that the way that most people play which is to min cash first, then then try to get 1st place *after that* is is a terrible way to play and it is one of the reasons that they do so horrible. So your point is valid for the vast majority of players.

And yes they do have a lot of luck in the short term, but just as little luck in the long term as a cash game. The long term in a cash game is just much easier to reach. The best players still win in the long run in a tournament though.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:16 AM   #15449
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I think the only logical MTT approach would be to keep playing them by coming up with money, make a decent score, and put that entire winning into a new dedicated tourney roll and repeat.
This.

The notion of having an MTT roll is silly unless you are specifically going to be a live MTT pro.

MTTs are mostly lottery tickets where hopefully you have better odds of winning vs. the other ticket holders.

Last edited by Lapidator; 06-23-2016 at 11:42 AM.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:20 AM   #15450
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Sort of agreeing.
Sort of clarifying that the way that most people play which is to min cash first, then then try to get 1st place *after that* is is a terrible way to play and it is one of the reasons that they do so horrible. So your point is valid for the vast majority of players.

And yes they do have a lot of luck in the short term, but just as little luck in the long term as a cash game. The long term in a cash game is just much easier to reach. The best players still win in the long run in a tournament though.
While I agree we obv have to go deep there are weird decision points within a tournament that are at odds with our desire to say top 3. As an extreme example, on the stone bubble of some MTT and we have top 2 stack in the room. But big stack on our left is the bigger stack.

We open XX, he jams it in our face. It's possible to build a scenario that we should be folding almost our entire range in that spot even though calling and winning sets us up to go super deep.

As I type it realize may not be relevant to winrates but bottom line is play MTTs for a change of pace or when you think you have a significant edge but don't expect to realize that edge.
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