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Old 11-06-2015, 01:33 PM   #11676
zoltan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Nice barg.
Better than multiple pages of discussion about a standard coin flip hand.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:37 PM   #11677
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Better than multiple pages of discussion about a standard coin flip hand.
Seriously, can a mod get in here and shut down that pointless convo? This thread is for winrate discussion not JB's personal BBV.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:47 PM   #11678
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A friend of mine asked me for advice on this problem and I'm torn maybe you guys can help. He has a $12,500 bankroll and here are his options:

He can stay at home with his parents where his living expenses will be covered by a part time job he works for 25 hours a week. In this scenario he can play in a 2/5 game for 22 hours a week that will cost him $110 a week to play. He can also play 10 hours a week in a $1/3 game where his edge is MASSIVE. If he goes on enough of a downswing (an amount that has not been predetermined but I'm guessing is something around 1000bb) he has to move down to $1/2 on the weekends where he will only be able to play 15 hours a week, but it costs nothing to play.

Second option he has is to move to Vegas with living expenses of $1300 a month and play $1/2. He's comfortable grinding for 270 hours a month there. His set up would be 3000bb set aside for poker, 3 months living expenses and the rest will be fall back money for him to move back home. If he's losing after the first month in a way that was not clearly attributable to variance, he's moving back. If he's break even after 2 months or worst he's moving back. If he moves back, he'll continue to play poker as he would have in scenario 1, but cannot take the part time job.

Which has the higher chance of success assuming the 2/5 game he plays and the 1/2 game in Vegas are relatively same skill with the 2/5 probably being softer? His major concern is that he feels like moving to Vegas is probably the best option, but he really doesn't want to leave home.
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:02 PM   #11679
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Live at home with parents and grind local 2/5 NL + 1/3 NL. Moving to Vegas to grind 1/2 NL is the nut low.
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:13 PM   #11680
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Stay at home and play $1/3. Get a "real" job too.
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:26 PM   #11681
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Stay at home and play $1/3. Get a "real" job too.
Did you miss my multiple mentions of the job he'll have?

Also to clarify, I'm only looking for answers on his statistical likelihood of success. It's not like he has prospects for a 6 figure job. His best hopes if he got a full time job are in the area of 30k/year. I'm not sure what a lot of you guys who have a stigma against full time poker do for a living but I'm sure you guys probably make more than that. So understand that to him $14-16 per hour is a ton of money.

Edit: I only add that because I get the feeling from your answers "The nut low", "Get a 'real' job" that you're overestimating the alternatives.
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:53 PM   #11682
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Live at home with parents and grind local 2/5 NL + 1/3 NL. Moving to Vegas to grind 1/2 NL is the nut low.
^^^^
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:01 PM   #11683
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He's comfortable grinding for 270 hours a month there.
k
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:04 PM   #11684
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Did you miss my multiple mentions of the job he'll have?

Also to clarify, I'm only looking for answers on his statistical likelihood of success. It's not like he has prospects for a 6 figure job. His best hopes if he got a full time job are in the area of 30k/year. I'm not sure what a lot of you guys who have a stigma against full time poker do for a living but I'm sure you guys probably make more than that. So understand that to him $14-16 per hour is a ton of money.

Edit: I only add that because I get the feeling from your answers "The nut low", "Get a 'real' job" that you're overestimating the alternatives.
By "real job", I'm guessing Angrist meant a full time job, which i agree with.

Also, I agree he should stay at home and play the 1/3. How many logged hours does he have at the 1/2, 1/3, and 2/5 games where he lives, and what are his winrates at each? All we know is his edge is "massive" at the 1/3 game.

Based on the above, it's almost impossible to give you a "statistical likelihood of success".
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:05 PM   #11685
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
A friend of mine asked me for advice on this problem and I'm torn maybe you guys can help. He has a $12,500 bankroll and here are his options:

He can stay at home with his parents where his living expenses will be covered by a part time job he works for 25 hours a week. In this scenario he can play in a 2/5 game for 22 hours a week that will cost him $110 a week to play. He can also play 10 hours a week in a $1/3 game where his edge is MASSIVE. If he goes on enough of a downswing (an amount that has not been predetermined but I'm guessing is something around 1000bb) he has to move down to $1/2 on the weekends where he will only be able to play 15 hours a week, but it costs nothing to play.

Second option he has is to move to Vegas with living expenses of $1300 a month and play $1/2. He's comfortable grinding for 270 hours a month there. His set up would be 3000bb set aside for poker, 3 months living expenses and the rest will be fall back money for him to move back home. If he's losing after the first month in a way that was not clearly attributable to variance, he's moving back. If he's break even after 2 months or worst he's moving back. If he moves back, he'll continue to play poker as he would have in scenario 1, but cannot take the part time job.

Which has the higher chance of success assuming the 2/5 game he plays and the 1/2 game in Vegas are relatively same skill with the 2/5 probably being softer? His major concern is that he feels like moving to Vegas is probably the best option, but he really doesn't want to leave home.
Both sound like losing propositions, just that one may bleed slower and less obvious.

What's his end game to all of this? Figure that out first.
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Old 11-06-2015, 04:47 PM   #11686
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He has 700 hours in all the games combined and has crushed. The reason I know his edge in the 1/3 game is because I've played in it myself and it's an unbelievable game, rake free and some of the worst players you can imagine.

No idea what his end game is. He's a 20 yr old college student. If his bankroll was like 20k i would say it's a no brainer to go with the 2/5 game. His concern and one I sympathize with is that he has a higher chance of a downswing taking him out of the game in 2/5. Whereas with the ability to get so much volume in Vegas he would have to be a loser or very marginal winner to get taken out of the game.
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Old 11-06-2015, 04:47 PM   #11687
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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He's comfortable grinding for 270 hours a month there.
Im calling bull**** on this one. 270 hrs/month?!? That's almost 70 hours/week. Unless someone has documented history of working that much for an extended period of time, it's not happening. 1-2 weeks is "easy". Do that for a month and you'll burn out if you've never done it before

And if your gonna grind 70 hours/week, why get an apartment if it's not definitely long term?? Just get a car, cooler/ice and a cheap gym membership (for the showers if nothing else)
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Old 11-06-2015, 05:01 PM   #11688
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As someone who has poker as my only income for the last 7 months, and has done a few month stretches in the past, 270 hours is just not realistic. I am averaging about 120 hours a month and while I generally enjoy going to play, a lot of days are just a grind. I also take a week off every couple months to travel/reset the battery. Where do you find time to go to the gym, socialize, and enjoy your hobbies with 270 hours of play?

I realize I could play more than 120, but if it is really going to feel like a grind... might as well return to full time work and all the benefits that brings.
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Old 11-06-2015, 05:02 PM   #11689
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He has put in more volume than that playing online. I didn't really question these things. The guy has been paying his tuition off his winnings. Basically it's a variance question. Is he more likely to get taken out of the game by hitting an early downswing in the 2/5 or by the living expenses/tougher(?) games.

I can't really say whether the Vegas games are tougher or not they were just strange to me. Tons of regulars who didn't seem very good, occasional people dumping a stack, but the games certainly didn't have a fun atmosphere for the most part.
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Old 11-06-2015, 05:26 PM   #11690
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He's more likely to get taken out of the game by trying to play 70 hours a week and losing his mind. Being mathematically rolled is one thing, being mentally able to play the same game regardless of recent results is something entirely different.

As far as being a long-term successful pro goes... actual poker ability isn't nearly the most important thing.
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Old 11-06-2015, 05:27 PM   #11691
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
Did you miss my multiple mentions of the job he'll have?

Also to clarify, I'm only looking for answers on his statistical likelihood of success. It's not like he has prospects for a 6 figure job. His best hopes if he got a full time job are in the area of 30k/year. I'm not sure what a lot of you guys who have a stigma against full time poker do for a living but I'm sure you guys probably make more than that. So understand that to him $14-16 per hour is a ton of money.

Edit: I only add that because I get the feeling from your answers "The nut low", "Get a 'real' job" that you're overestimating the alternatives.

You mentioned it once, and *not* in relation to Vegas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aves2 View Post
By "real job", I'm guessing Angrist meant a full time job, which i agree with.

...

Based on the above, it's almost impossible to give you a "statistical likelihood of success".
That's exactly what I meant. Full time employment. Sure, he's not getting a 6 figure job. But there are trade jobs everywhere that should pay well over $30k/yr without much hassle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
He has 700 hours in all the games combined and has crushed. The reason I know his edge in the 1/3 game is because I've played in it myself and it's an unbelievable game, rake free and some of the worst players you can imagine.
I don't think that's enough to move out and try to grind $1/2 for a meager existence in a new city with different games. Not by a long shot. Sure, we're not talking about a 100 hour sample. But a 2-300 hours of upswing isn't out of the question. It might be different if he had another job there. But to give you a "statistical probability"? No way.
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Old 11-06-2015, 05:29 PM   #11692
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
A friend of mine asked me for advice on this problem and I'm torn maybe you guys can help. He has a $12,500 bankroll and here are his options:

He can stay at home with his parents where his living expenses will be covered by a part time job he works for 25 hours a week. In this scenario he can play in a 2/5 game for 22 hours a week that will cost him $110 a week to play. He can also play 10 hours a week in a $1/3 game where his edge is MASSIVE. If he goes on enough of a downswing (an amount that has not been predetermined but I'm guessing is something around 1000bb) he has to move down to $1/2 on the weekends where he will only be able to play 15 hours a week, but it costs nothing to play.

Second option he has is to move to Vegas with living expenses of $1300 a month and play $1/2. He's comfortable grinding for 270 hours a month there. His set up would be 3000bb set aside for poker, 3 months living expenses and the rest will be fall back money for him to move back home. If he's losing after the first month in a way that was not clearly attributable to variance, he's moving back. If he's break even after 2 months or worst he's moving back. If he moves back, he'll continue to play poker as he would have in scenario 1, but cannot take the part time job.

Which has the higher chance of success assuming the 2/5 game he plays and the 1/2 game in Vegas are relatively same skill with the 2/5 probably being softer? His major concern is that he feels like moving to Vegas is probably the best option, but he really doesn't want to leave home.
It's option #1 by about a hundred million miles.
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Old 11-06-2015, 06:03 PM   #11693
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270 hrs per month is not doable period. This is not conjecture this is 20+ years of doin the gambool for a living in fact I am willing to put my money where my mouth is and do a prop bet on thisif he moves to Vegas

Vegas games suck ass compared to rest of the country. Again not conjecture. I have logged more hours post Black Friday than 95+ percent of live pros out there

Option a and it's not even close
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Old 11-06-2015, 06:07 PM   #11694
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He's comfortable grinding for 270 hours a month there


I don´t think I could sleep for 270 hrs in a one month.
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Old 11-06-2015, 06:14 PM   #11695
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I don´t think I could sleep for 270 hrs in a one month.
Rookie!
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Old 11-06-2015, 07:13 PM   #11696
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Isn't this the winrates/bankroll thread? WTF is all this crap about some kid wanting to grind Vegas 1/2 doing in here?
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Old 11-06-2015, 07:30 PM   #11697
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Missed option 3

Get part time job

**** on bosses car and quit

Move to LA do a bunch of drugs and crush the regs in the 40bb games
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Old 11-06-2015, 07:40 PM   #11698
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Missed option 3

Get part time job

**** on bosses car and quit

Move to LA do a bunch of drugs and crush the regs in the 40bb games
crush their souls 40bbs at a time
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Old 11-06-2015, 08:25 PM   #11699
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Live poker variance is just dumb sometimes. I have played a ton of live poker (14k+ hours), and I am seeing things now that I have never seen before. I have never been exiled to the soul-crushing abyss that others have visited before, but I am currently experiencing the opposite. Feels like a dream from which I never want to wake up.
IN be4 ATsai's alarm goes off and he's not the WSOP champ.
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Old 11-07-2015, 12:01 AM   #11700
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Rookie!
Squid, how's dat rent in Fla? If Vegas games are a 5/10 then Fla games are a ___\10?

Make teh gambool bra
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