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Old 09-15-2015, 11:41 AM   #10501
bip!
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Honestly - this debate is just circular anecdotal evidence. There is not near enough objective data to conclude what range of stdev exists in winning LLSNL poker players nor where the peak WR may fall.
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:43 AM   #10502
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Now for my anecdotal debate... thin value is going to up your variance quite significantly. (Before even considering bluffing). If you actually squeeze every dime of EV out of situations with loose passive players, you will have higher stdev than almost every poster ITT. If you do it right, you will also have a >>> WR.
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:44 AM   #10503
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Can't disagree.

Plus if you're playing in Maryland Live, you can probably achieve highest WR and have lower stdev than a smaller room.
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:47 AM   #10504
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Yeah - players then change their play against you when they perceive you to be that aggressive... which digs a deeper rabbit hole about max exploitation and EV dynamic.

So back to start - discussing stdev is pointless, however discussing WR without stdev #s is pointless too lol.

/thread - all pointless
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:47 AM   #10505
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have no idea why mine is so high. I just filtered my 1/2 results for first 1000 hours, where I feel like my game was less bluffy than it is now and my $SD/hr was higher ($378/hr) at that point than now ($355/hr).

It could just be a function of player pool and my willingness to bomb turns when I'm confident villain(s) are on draws and their willingness to get in ~light. They ~never fold so that can create big chip swings at river. I dunno?

Maybe I'm more bluffy than I realize. I do have a "spaz shove" leak that shows up from time to time, and I am more willing to squeeze light than pretty much anybody in my pool.

That all being said, I've never really had a big downswing at 1/2. My graph is a steady climb (1/3 is where I've had the gross downswing).

My biggest day at 1/2 was +1110, my worst day was -$1500. But those are definitely outliers. I have a lot of -$200 days, and a lot of +400 days.

Ironically(?) my $SD/hr at 1/3 is more in line with the norm at $218.49.
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:53 AM   #10506
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bluffs that work are the lowest stdev result
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:59 AM   #10507
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In that case, I'm going to make sure all my bluffs work. ;-)
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Old 09-15-2015, 12:15 PM   #10508
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I appreciate the stddev discussion. I've read the last few months of this thread, wondering if I should read the last few years to be more up to speed.

Once the poker bug bit me and I had some early success, as a numbers guy I naturally started looking at my stddev and measuring confidence levels on my WR.
Standard poker honeymoon phase.

When I hit my first psychological downswing it was an eureka moment. If bad luck yields bad play in many, what good is a confidence interval calculated during a period which only includes mildly bad luck - great luck?

I realize this is old news for many, but I throw it out there in case it helps some.

Put another way... Each hand, each hour, each session are not independent trials in the statistical sense. For the strongest psychologically, closer to independent than the rest of us.
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Old 09-15-2015, 12:31 PM   #10509
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse View Post
I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.
Even after just tracking 2 sessions of AA/KK, I've become even more aware of how variance has a huge grasp on our game, especially if we are a recreational players that will only get in a rather lol lifetime amount of hours. And not just in winning and losing with hands like these, but with all sorts of other things, like what position we are dealt them, and at what type of table we are dealt them at, etc.

For example, I've only just begun tracking AA/KK for the COTM, over a lol sample size of ~22 hours. Obviously this is a lol sample size, but as a recreational player who expects to get in around 500 hours this year, that sample size actually makes up 4.4% of my total this year, about 1/23 of my year. Not a big chunk of my year, but not an incredibly small one either.

So in this chunk, I've gotten AA/KK 4 times in that 22 hours (AAx3, KKx1), slightly below the expected ~6. But here's the interesting thing, I've had those hands first to act preflop 3 times (twice UTG+1 on a straddle, once UTG not on a straddle), and once in the BB. Any guesses as to where I made the most money? Yeah, of course, in the BB, where I knew how many people were interested in the pot and could make a much better guess at my raise size for generating action. 2 of my UTG+1 raises on the straddle saw me take down the pot preflop, the other UTG I limped / didn't get a chance to reraise / folded postflop on bad runout.

Course, my guess is that over the next 22/23 of the next year I'll (hopefully) run a little better regarding getting AA/KK the expected the amount of time, and in a better overall average position, and then after all that, hopefully run about expectation at a hopefully good table. But overall, it'll still just be a lol drop-in-the-bucket sample size.

Blah blah blah, the point being that's it is kind of sickening to know the hold all shapes of variance really have on our lifetime results.

GIthinkIalwaysknewthis,butIrantoowellearlyontogive itenoughrespectG
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Old 09-15-2015, 03:27 PM   #10510
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Even after just tracking 2 sessions of AA/KK, I've become even more aware of how variance has a huge grasp on our game, especially if we are a recreational players that will only get in a rather lol lifetime amount of hours. And not just in winning and losing with hands like these, but with all sorts of other things, like what position we are dealt them, and at what type of table we are dealt them at, etc.

For example, I've only just begun tracking AA/KK for the COTM, over a lol sample size of ~22 hours. Obviously this is a lol sample size, but as a recreational player who expects to get in around 500 hours this year, that sample size actually makes up 4.4% of my total this year, about 1/23 of my year. Not a big chunk of my year, but not an incredibly small one either.

So in this chunk, I've gotten AA/KK 4 times in that 22 hours (AAx3, KKx1), slightly below the expected ~6. But here's the interesting thing, I've had those hands first to act preflop 3 times (twice UTG+1 on a straddle, once UTG not on a straddle), and once in the BB. Any guesses as to where I made the most money? Yeah, of course, in the BB, where I knew how many people were interested in the pot and could make a much better guess at my raise size for generating action. 2 of my UTG+1 raises on the straddle saw me take down the pot preflop, the other UTG I limped / didn't get a chance to reraise / folded postflop on bad runout.

Course, my guess is that over the next 22/23 of the next year I'll (hopefully) run a little better regarding getting AA/KK the expected the amount of time, and in a better overall average position, and then after all that, hopefully run about expectation at a hopefully good table. But overall, it'll still just be a lol drop-in-the-bucket sample size.

Blah blah blah, the point being that's it is kind of sickening to know the hold all shapes of variance really have on our lifetime results.

GIthinkIalwaysknewthis,butIrantoowellearlyontogive itenoughrespectG
Even something like the dealer pitching a card and it turning faceup is variance.

Running so good it happened to me yesterday, hero has QQ, very loose straddler gets pitched a face up 6. He calls with any two on his straddle, flop 664.
***** lol. 5$ dealer tip
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Old 09-15-2015, 03:29 PM   #10511
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That's just dumb...

Rewarding a dealer for making silly mistake is no different than yelling at one.
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Old 09-15-2015, 04:40 PM   #10512
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That's just dumb...

Rewarding a dealer for making silly mistake is no different than yelling at one.
Lol, just a fun way to mock the straddler, dat funny gambly asiat
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Old 09-15-2015, 04:42 PM   #10513
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FWIW, my SD over 1150 tracked hours of 1/2 is $251.96, at 2/5 it's $446.33 over 609 hours.
Is this per hour or per session?? Just curious
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Old 09-15-2015, 04:48 PM   #10514
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Can't disagree.

Plus if you're playing in Maryland Live, you can probably achieve highest WR and have lower stdev than a smaller room.
Buy me a beer next time I see you?

Spoiler:
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Old 09-15-2015, 04:54 PM   #10515
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Sure
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Old 09-15-2015, 05:10 PM   #10516
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Originally Posted by Raeed561 View Post
Is this per hour or per session?? Just curious
Per hour. Session SD is $459.86 for 1/2 and $775.31 for 2/5
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Old 09-15-2015, 05:17 PM   #10517
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Pro Tip #476: if you want to repeatedly get paid off at 1/2 at 4am, stack your chips like this

I was in the 4 seat, 3 and 5 seats were open and I just kept expanding my empire with absurd value bets that no one believed because I was drunk and dong this ****. lol



(i took this right after the table broke, hence the lack of people)
I like this. Will do
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Old 09-15-2015, 05:22 PM   #10518
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Yeah - players then change their play against you when they perceive you to be that aggressive... which digs a deeper rabbit hole about max exploitation and EV dynamic.

So back to start - discussing stdev is pointless, however discussing WR without stdev #s is pointless too lol.

/thread - all pointless
Stdev stat helped me a lot during my drawdown and it helped me with bankroll considerations and planning. Thats about it.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using 2+2 Forums
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Old 09-16-2015, 09:10 PM   #10519
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Saw someone post loss rate and that pique my curiosity.

Has anyone ever calculated medium or average loss rate in terms of bb?
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Old 09-17-2015, 12:06 AM   #10520
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

won like another 900.

up 5600 in 66 hours over 17 days
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Old 09-17-2015, 05:51 AM   #10521
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post

No one is double barreling light in LLSNL, period.
Whatcha' talkin' about Willis?!!.... I double barrel with bottom set [even if it's deuces] all the time!

Last edited by ZuneIt; 09-17-2015 at 06:01 AM.
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Old 09-17-2015, 06:00 AM   #10522
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Saw someone post loss rate and that pique my curiosity.

Has anyone ever calculated medium or average loss rate in terms of bb?
I did make this a while back (based on about 500 sessions)



If anything it's skewed towards the middle since that includes a few dozen times where I played 1/2 for one hour waiting for a 2/5 seat and counted it as a "session".

Guess I could go through my DB and figure average loss pretty easily when I get home today.
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Old 09-17-2015, 06:38 AM   #10523
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Think he means the average amount lost by average player per hour at casino?

I was thinking along similar lines the other day. Wondering what percentage of players are long time losers. Everybody seems to estimate its 80% but I just can't believe it's that high.
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:27 AM   #10524
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I'd believe it. Being a long term winner requires discipline most people don't have. You can be a good player and go busto due to bad mental game/life, you can't be a bad player and win big long-term (you can bink and gtfo though)
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Old 09-17-2015, 07:45 AM   #10525
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It costs a loootttt of money to keep live poker going. Take the rake and take the winrates and everyone else has to lose that much. And a couple people will probably be break-even-ish so the rest have to lose even more.

A 2/5 table might have 3 people winning 30/hr average (that might be high tbh) and rake $140/hr. So six people then have to lose $230/hr between them or close to $40 each. If you have two people losing $10/hr then the other four must lose $52/hr each.
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