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Old 09-24-2015, 07:01 PM   #10926
ATsai
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As far as the argument about who is winning more pots, I see plenty of crushers who win a ton of small pots. In my case, I win way more than my fair share of small/medium pots. Ask anyone who has played with me, and they will tell you that I pay more rake than anyone else (including the fishes).
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:07 PM   #10927
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
You're overcomplicating a rather simple scenario.

We know what the house/dealer is taking.

We know what the winning player is walking away with after paying house dealer.

So now we solve for how much remaining players are actually paying to into the pool to sustain it.
The only part we are disputing is the part about the rake/tip jackpot. What your analysis fails to consider is that both winners and losers are contributing to the 35 bb/hour. The part that is being double counted is the winners' portions of the rake.
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:10 PM   #10928
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Hint for all you guys who think that WINRATE (of winning players) + TOTAL RAKE = LOSS RATE (of losing players).

You guys need to relearn arithmetic because part of the TOTAL RAKE was already taken out of the WINRATE.
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:20 PM   #10929
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
The winning players already paid part of the house's take. So you can't just add up the TOTAL RAKE because part of that rake has already been paid by the winners who cashed out profits.
Conservation of manies. Draw a control volume around the table. Winners take X bb/hr out, dealer takes Y bb/hr rake out, fishes put Z bb/hr in.

X + Y - Z = 0

You can add a "dealer takes Y2 bb/hr in tips out" too if you want.

The X and Z might be split un-evenly depending on the number of players, like 1 winner for 0.75*X and another for 0.25*X, but whatever, we can get an average winrate.


So a rake adjusted winrate is trival. There's no double counting at all.


If you're trying to say "in a game where there was no rake, I'd be making X+5 bb/hr" ... then you need to figure out who's paying how much of the rake (and/or tips). What are we assuming for the distribution of rake/hand at that point?

If we assume it's constant among players (not sure I buy that), then our raw win rate is (our fraction of ) X + Y/N_players_total.

Loss rates are on average Z/N_losing_players + Y/N_players_total.


Didn't anyone pay attention in thermodynamics?
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:25 PM   #10930
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Ya but I got confused.

I mean 10bb/hr winner is obviously after rake/tip/jackpot and what not, and if we factor those in for the table loss rate calculation, then how are we double counting anything?

ATsai is good, his presence alone makes you doubt yourself.
Yes, I was confused about this too. If I buy in for 1k and cash out after 5 hours for 1.1k then my win rate is $20ph. Rake has already been taken out
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:29 PM   #10931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Ya, dealer/house remove 35bb/hr, pretty straight forward.

Nothing is being doubled counted when we are considering how much people will have to lose to sustain all the money being removed from the table.
Let's say we play heads up with a dealer.

I win 10 Bb per hour from you.

You lose 13 bb per hour.

The 3 bb per hour discrepancy are tips and rake.

There's no need to count them separately. It's been incorporated in the win and loss rates.
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:29 PM   #10932
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Yes, I was confused about this too. If I buy in for 1k and cash out after 5 hours for 1.1k then my win rate is $20ph. Rake has already been taken out
Yes it has been taken out and thus the 35 bb/hr total rake/tips/jackpot should be subtracted by however much you paid in rake.
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:39 PM   #10933
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Yes it has been taken out and thus the 35 bb/hr total rake/tips/jackpot should be subtracted by however much you paid in rake.
No.

Or at least, IT DOESN'T MATTER. A fish doesn't care where his money went. Dealer tip, rake, other players, it's just gone. Likewise for most practical purposes winners only care about the post rake winrate, since there isn't anything you can do about that (other than not tip).

So the net $ onto the table, and $ off of the table are what matters. That's what we're calculating.
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Old 09-24-2015, 07:59 PM   #10934
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Hint for all you guys who think that WINRATE (of winning players) + TOTAL RAKE = LOSS RATE (of losing players).

You guys need to relearn arithmetic because part of the TOTAL RAKE was already taken out of the WINRATE.
Dude, stop making yourself look more and more like a moron.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:02 PM   #10935
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
Let's say we play heads up with a dealer.

I win 10 Bb per hour from you.

You lose 13 bb per hour.

The 3 bb per hour discrepancy are tips and rake.

There's no need to count them separately. It's been incorporated in the win and loss rates.
Right. So if you want to solve for how much the loser lost, you have to add the rake to the amount that the winner won. In your example 10bb (winrate) + 3bb (rake/tip) = 13bb (loss rate)

That's all we have been doing. People looking straight foolish ITT.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:07 PM   #10936
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No.

Or at least, IT DOESN'T MATTER. A fish doesn't care where his money went. Dealer tip, rake, other players, it's just gone. Likewise for most practical purposes winners only care about the post rake winrate, since there isn't anything you can do about that (other than not tip).

So the net $ onto the table, and $ off of the table are what matters. That's what we're calculating.

No. RP estimated the total rake/tips/jackpot to be 35 bb so whatever the winners paid for rake tips jackpot needs to be subtracted from the total amount otherwise you are double counting what they paid for in rake/tips/jackpot. Just look are the winners' winnings as being broken up into actual winnings - rake. So a 10bb winner really won 13bb but paid 3bb in rake. That 3bb he paid in rake needs to be subtracted from the 35 bb in total rake.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:17 PM   #10937
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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
No. RP estimated the total rake/tips/jackpot to be 35 bb so whatever the winners paid for rake tips jackpot needs to be subtracted from the total amount otherwise you are double counting what they paid for in rake/tips/jackpot. Just look are the winners' winnings as being broken up into actual winnings - rake. So a 10bb winner really won 13bb but paid 3bb in rake. That 3bb he paid in rake needs to be subtracted from the 35 bb in total rake.
No. Scroll up and read my full post before that.

Dealer rakes/tokes 35bb/hr. Winners win 10 bb/hr after rake. This is the number that everyone tracks and everyones reports.

Assume 1 winning player at the table.

The losing players collectively put 45bb/hr into the game. That's their loss rate. It's the rate you'd calculate or report. 45bb/hr split by however many losing players there are.

It doesn't matter if the loser is losing 2 bb/hr to the rake and 6 bb/hr to the winning players, or 6bb/hr to the rake and only 2bb/hr to the winning players. Their loss rate is the same. Saying "they lost at 4bb/hr and paid 3bb/hr in rake" is worthless. What matters is how quickly they're pulling money out of their pockets.

Money goes onto the table, money comes off the table. It's neither created or destroyed.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:33 PM   #10938
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No. Scroll up and read my full post before that.

Dealer rakes/tokes 35bb/hr. Winners win 10 bb/hr after rake. This is the number that everyone tracks and everyones reports.

Assume 1 winning player at the table.

The losing players collectively put 45bb/hr into the game. That's their loss rate. It's the rate you'd calculate or report. 45bb/hr split by however many losing players there are.

It doesn't matter if the loser is losing 2 bb/hr to the rake and 6 bb/hr to the winning players, or 6bb/hr to the rake and only 2bb/hr to the winning players. Their loss rate is the same. Saying "they lost at 4bb/hr and paid 3bb/hr in rake" is worthless. What matters is how quickly they're pulling money out of their pockets.

Money goes onto the table, money comes off the table. It's neither created or destroyed.
You're still not seeing the fact that both winners and losers contribute to the 35 BB/hour rake, not just the losers. Since winners pay rake it is already included in their win rate and thus the rake must be calculated so it can be deducted from the total rake paid. If the winners pay 20 bb in rake that means they losers pay 15 bb in rake.

It's kind of ironic that you keep bringing up thermodynamics when you are the one double counting some parts in the system.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:36 PM   #10939
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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
You're still not seeing the fact that both winners and losers contribute to the 35 BB/hour rake, not just the losers. Since winners pay rake it is already included in their win rate and thus the rake must be calculated so it can be deducted from the total rake paid. If the winners pay 20 bb in rake that means they losers pay 15 bb in rake.

It's kind of ironic that you keep bringing up thermodynamics when you are the one double counting some parts in the system.
We aren't double counting. You are trying to subract things twice. Winning player's rake is already subtracted from their win rate and you are trying to subtract it again from the total rake.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:43 PM   #10940
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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
You're still not seeing the fact that both winners and losers contribute to the 35 BB/hour rake, not just the losers. Since winners pay rake it is already included in their win rate and thus the rake must be calculated so it can be deducted from the total rake paid. If the winners pay 20 bb in rake that means they losers pay 15 bb in rake.

It's kind of ironic that you keep bringing up thermodynamics when you are the one double counting some parts in the system.
You obviously didn't read my post. Or understand it.

What are you trying to figure out? How much the losers lose total? How much they lose to other players and how much to rake? The approach I outlined above works for both.

Losers put money on the table, winners take it off. The house takes it off. That is it. Considering the table as a control volume, there are NO other flows of money.

If you want to correct measured win and loss rates for rake paid, you need a model for how that rake is distributed among players. What's your model for that?

If you assume that everyone pays an equal fraction, I already said what the correction factors are.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:44 PM   #10941
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We aren't double counting. You are trying to subract things twice. Winning player's rake is already subtracted from their win rate and you are trying to subtract it again from the total rake.
Do you agree that total rake paid is 35 bb/hr? If so then how much did the guy who makes 10 bb/hr pay in rake and where in the calculation is it being subtracted from the 35 bb/hr in total rake?
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:50 PM   #10942
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You obviously didn't read my post. Or understand it.

What are you trying to figure out? How much the losers lose total? How much they lose to other players and how much to rake? The approach I outlined above works for both.

Losers put money on the table, winners take it off. The house takes it off. That is it. Considering the table as a control volume, there are NO other flows of money.

If you want to correct measured win and loss rates for rake paid, you need a model for how that rake is distributed among players. What's your model for that?

If you assume that everyone pays an equal fraction, I already said what the correction factors are.
Not sure how much more simple I can make this. Lets say the house collects 35 bb/hr. If the winners pay 10bb in rake then the losers pay 25bb in rake. Show me where in RP's formula he accounts for 10bb the winners pay in rake. Using your thermodynamics example it seems like it just disappears.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:53 PM   #10943
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Do you agree that total rake paid is 35 bb/hr? If so then how much did the guy who makes 10 bb/hr pay in rake and where in the calculation is it being subtracted from the 35 bb/hr in total rake?
We don't know and it doesn't matter.




Win Rate (amount won from players - rake paid) + Total Rake (Rake paid by winners + Rake paid by losers) = Loss Rate (amount lost to players - rake paid)

or

Profit taken off the table by winners + Amount taken off the table by dealer = Amount lost on table by losers


I don't know how else to break it down.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:09 PM   #10944
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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Win Rate (amount won from players - rake paid) + Total Rake (Rake paid by winners + Rake paid by losers) = Loss Rate (amount lost to players - rake paid)
Let's use t_roy's formula to see if it really adds up. Let's assume a headsup cash game where the 1 "losing player" won the first hand by stealing the winning players's big blind, but the "winning player" tops up his stack and then stacks the "losing player" on the second hand and breaks the game after the "losing player" doesn't reload. Assuming both players started with 100bbs effective and 1bb/hand rake too.

Win Rate (99bb - 1bb = 98bb)

Total Rake (1bb + 1bb = 2bb)

Loss Rate (100bb - 1bb =99bb)

98bb (Win Rate) + 2bb (Total Rake) = 99bb (Loss Rate) ?!?!??!

Seems like t_roy's formula means that 100bb=99bb. Something doesn't add up, huh?

Or maybe t_roy's formula is just horse****.

P.S. The Win Rate is 99bb (profit) - 1bb (rake paid on second hand dealt) because the "winning player" bought in for the game for 101bbs (added on 1bb after his big blind was stolen in first hand).
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:18 PM   #10945
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If someone with common sense watched the 2 hand headsup cash game go down, they would just say that the winning player pocketed 98 big blinds, the casino pocketed 2 big blinds, and the losing player lost 100 big blinds.

Somehow, t_roy's formula suggests that the losing player only lost 99 big blinds. So, somehow, the losing player magically got a 1bb rebate. At least in t_roy's fictional world, the fish has a magical redbird left in his pocket to pay the valet.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:22 PM   #10946
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You ****ed it up.

If rake is 1bb per hand:

Win Rate (99bb [-1bb on 1st hand and +100bb on 2nd] - 1bb [rake on 2nd hand]= 98bb total won)

Total Rake (1bb [rake on 1st] + 1bb [rake on 2nd] = 2bb)

Loss Rate (-99bb [+1 on 1st - 100 on 2nd] - 1bb [rake on 1st hand]= -100bb total lost)
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:24 PM   #10947
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t_roy,

The losing player didn't win +1bb on his first hand because he stole the big blind and then had to give it to the casino as rake for the first hand.

So, the losing player started with 100bbs in the second hand and then got stacked.

So, the losing player bought into the cash game for 100bbs and then left with 0 bbs.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:25 PM   #10948
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
If someone with common sense watched the 2 hand headsup cash game go down, they would just say that the winning player pocketed 98 big blinds, the casino pocketed 2 big blinds, and the losing player lost 100 big blinds.

Somehow, t_roy's formula suggests that the losing player only lost 99 big blinds. So, somehow, the losing player magically got a 1bb rebate. At least in t_roy's fictional world, the fish has a magical redbird left in his pocket to pay the valet.
Wait, so you are saying that the losing player lost 100bb? It's shocking that 100bb just happens to be the same as the total amount raked plus the amount won.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:26 PM   #10949
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
t_roy,

The losing player didn't win +1bb on his first hand because he stole the big blind and then had to give it to the casino as rake for the first hand.

So, the losing player started with 100bbs in the second hand and then got stacked.

So, the losing player bought into the cash game for 100bbs and then left with 0 bbs.
If you would keep reading to the right, you would see the 1bb that I subtracted for the rake paid on the first hand.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:29 PM   #10950
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OK then, I must be on crack because I misread your post. It actually adds up correctly. I take back what I said about your formula, and I apologize for criticizing it.
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