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Old 09-17-2015, 08:08 AM   #10526
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
It costs a loootttt of money to keep live poker going. Take the rake and take the winrates and everyone else has to lose that much. And a couple people will probably be break-even-ish so the rest have to lose even more.

A 2/5 table might have 3 people winning 30/hr average (that might be high tbh) and rake $140/hr. So six people then have to lose $230/hr between them or close to $40 each. If you have two people losing $10/hr then the other four must lose $52/hr each.
so imagine what it's like at my casino where Star takes $30ph off each seat (10 handed)
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Old 09-17-2015, 08:19 AM   #10527
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so imagine what it's like at my casino where Star takes $30ph off each seat (10 handed)
Thats like home game rake.

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Old 09-17-2015, 08:25 AM   #10528
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
so imagine what it's like at my casino where Star takes $30ph off each seat (10 handed)
80% is probably low for the number of losing players in that case.
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Old 09-17-2015, 11:08 AM   #10529
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Think he means the average amount lost by average player per hour at casino?

I was thinking along similar lines the other day. Wondering what percentage of players are long time losers. Everybody seems to estimate its 80% but I just can't believe it's that high.

That's exactly what I meant.

Everyone is looking at win rate and maybe we can discover a few things by looking at loss rate.
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Old 09-17-2015, 11:35 AM   #10530
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Wondering what percentage of players are long time losers. Everybody seems to estimate its 80% but I just can't believe it's that high.
My guess is that it would actually be higher, no? It's hard for there to be lots of winners when almost every small stakes table has a rat-holing 70 bb/hr winner sitting at the table (i.e. the dealer).

I'm pretty convinced my winrate has almost nothing to do with me and is fully dependent on my opponents lossrate. As whales improve to fish, and fish improve to slightly losing players, that has a huge affect on me. Would be super interesting to see all the graphs of everyone in my room and see how they relate to each other over time.

GjustaguessG
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Old 09-17-2015, 12:04 PM   #10531
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
A 2/5 table might have 3 people winning 30/hr average (that might be high tbh) and rake $140/hr. So six people then have to lose $230/hr between them or close to $40 each. If you have two people losing $10/hr then the other four must lose $52/hr each.
A good start!

Assuming there are 3 people taking combine of 20bb/hr off the table and rake/tip of 30bb/hr, there is a hole of -50bb/hr that needs to be made up by the remaining 6 players.

So each player is losing at a rate of roughly 8.33bb/hr?
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Old 09-17-2015, 12:15 PM   #10532
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My guess is that it would actually be higher, no? It's hard for there to be lots of winners when almost every small stakes table has a rat-holing 70 bb/hr winner sitting at the table (i.e. the dealer).

I'm pretty convinced my winrate has almost nothing to do with me and is fully dependent on my opponents lossrate. As whales improve to fish, and fish improve to slightly losing players, that has a huge affect on me. Would be super interesting to see all the graphs of everyone in my room and see how they relate to each other over time.

GjustaguessG
You're pretty much missing the point with this line of thought, GG. A win rate or loss rate isn't a thing that people have and carry around with them. It is nothing more than a mathematical description of the difference in skill between two players, or, more commonly, a player and his field. It varies constantly as players come and go, and even when they just get dealt different hands that play to their strengths or weaknesses.

Your idea that you can't improve your WR by improving your skills would only be true if you already played every hand perfectly against every player.

I do agree with you to this extent: improving from horrible to break even is much easier than improving from decent to good. And there is an upper limit on everyone's skill. Not everyone who works his ass off will automatically become world class. So, if your competition are getting better, they're going to get better faster than you are, because they are going from horrible to ok. Meanwhile, you sound like you've given up on trying to go from good to very good or very good to excellent, or whatever.
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Old 09-17-2015, 12:42 PM   #10533
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Well said, mpethy.

It seems that as a small pool continues to shrink, in order for winning players to continue to win, they would need to target stronger players or beat up on the weaker players even harder.

If the table has to lose on average of 50bb/hr in order for someone to win 7bb/hr, the effect of one whale who loses 20bb/hr leaving the game would be quite impactful.

Quick example:

-50bb/hr loss rate of table
-6 losing players, 2 winners/BE players, and 7bb winning player.

6 losing players:
-Whale: -20bb/hr
-Fish A: -8bb/hr
-Fish B: -7bb/hr
-Fish C: -6bb/hr
-Fish D: -6bb/hr
-Fish E: -5bb/hr

2 winning/BE players:
-Small Winner: 2bb/hr
-BE: 0bb/hr

Total: -50bb/hr

If we remove the whale and his loss rate of 20bb/hr and replace it with someone losing at -5bb/hr, the only way to recoup that loss of 15bb/hr is to be able to improve the ability to turn those other guys into even bigger losers.

Often enough, easiest way to make more is to target the small winner and BE player.
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Old 09-17-2015, 12:58 PM   #10534
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Often enough, easiest way to make more is to target the small winner and BE player.
aka picking on the bet/folder
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:11 PM   #10535
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So much lineup dependency on loss rates. A weak tight player not only benefits by winning off a whale but also has his weaknesses protected by the presence of a call station (i.e. He is not exposed to many bluffs in multiway pots involving the whale). When the lineup changes, he is exposed to top players.

So I really feel a top notch player doesn't suffer near as much from the loss of whales as the middling players do. The middling player suffers tons beyond just losing whale $$ - middling player is now the target.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:12 PM   #10536
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(As others alluded too )
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:20 PM   #10537
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So much lineup dependency on loss rates. A weak tight player not only benefits by winning off a whale but also has his weaknesses protected by the presence of a call station (i.e. He is not exposed to many bluffs in multiway pots involving the whale). When the lineup changes, he is exposed to top players.

So I really feel a top notch player doesn't suffer near as much from the loss of whales as the middling players do. The middling player suffers tons beyond just losing whale $$ - middling player is now the target.
That is really interesting. Not only are middling guys protected, their game is often totally built around making nutted hands and calling down. It is a really good strat vs. whales.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:26 PM   #10538
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So much lineup dependency on loss rates. A weak tight player not only benefits by winning off a whale but also has his weaknesses protected by the presence of a call station (i.e. He is not exposed to many bluffs in multiway pots involving the whale). When the lineup changes, he is exposed to top players.

So I really feel a top notch player doesn't suffer near as much from the loss of whales as the middling players do. The middling player suffers tons beyond just losing whale $$ - middling player is now the target.
In other words, you believe top players are consistently focusing on exploiting middling players, not whales?
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:31 PM   #10539
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In other words, you believe top players are consistently focusing on exploiting middling players, not whales?
I think he means once the whale is gone the top player just moves on down the line to the next "mark" and he doesn't see as much (if any) win-rate decay as a middling player does when the whale leaves. But the top player probably still wishes the whale stays rather than leaves.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:31 PM   #10540
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
You're pretty much missing the point with this line of thought, GG. A win rate or loss rate isn't a thing that people have and carry around with them. It is nothing more than a mathematical description of the difference in skill between two players, or, more commonly, a player and his field. It varies constantly as players come and go, and even when they just get dealt different hands that play to their strengths or weaknesses.

Your idea that you can't improve your WR by improving your skills would only be true if you already played every hand perfectly against every player.

I do agree with you to this extent: improving from horrible to break even is much easier than improving from decent to good. And there is an upper limit on everyone's skill. Not everyone who works his ass off will automatically become world class. So, if your competition are getting better, they're going to get better faster than you are, because they are going from horrible to ok. Meanwhile, you sound like you've given up on trying to go from good to very good or very good to excellent, or whatever.
I don't think (???) we're disagreeing that much. If all the whales in the room improve to fish, and all the fish in the room improve towards breakeven, the advantage gap I have relative to them all is reduced (which will in turn obviously affect my winrate). I think maybe we're saying the same thing but differently?

I've always maintained that our achievable winrate is more a function of our opponents than ourselves once we reach a certain point in our game. I more-or-less stated in my "clueless noob reaches 1000 hours" thread that table selection is pretty much the be-all end-all regarding the lifetime winrate of a mediocre player like myself. And I reiterated the same thoughts in the current COTM. Being a small percentage better than all of our opponents at a raked table full of nothing but good opponents makes us all... losers; we underestimate the effect of rake if we think otherwise. I stand by this opinion, and I don't think it's unreasonable.

That certainly hasn't mean I've given up in attempting to learn or get better. I enjoy this hobby, and like all my other hobbies there's an ok chance I might get slightly better with time and some (reasonable) effort.

Gtryingtogofrommediocretogood,butfindingitdifficul tG
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:33 PM   #10541
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Yeah - a one dimensional player A can have the ~same expectation as a top player B in soft lineups. But the expectations can drift miles apart as the lineup toughens.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:43 PM   #10542
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I more-or-less stated in my "clueless noob reaches 1000 hours" thread that table selection is pretty much the be-all end-all regarding the lifetime winrate of a mediocre player like myself.
I've known for a long time that table selection is really really important and now I'm thinking I might have been underestimating it still.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:44 PM   #10543
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Yeah - a one dimensional player A can have the ~same expectation as a top player B in soft lineups. But the expectations can drift miles apart as the lineup toughens.
Do you think there comes a point where the lineup toughens enough at a raked table where the game becomes unbeatable?

GIthinktheobviousansweris"yes",butIgetthefeelingno teveryoneagreeswiththatG
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:47 PM   #10544
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Do you think there comes a point where the lineup toughens enough at a raked table where the game becomes unbeatable?

GIthinktheobviousansweris"yes",butIgetthefeelingno teveryoneagreeswiththatG
yes and the people who disagree are the ones still sitting there

poker's a beautiful game because you can just let wrong people be wrong
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:50 PM   #10545
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That also ties into why so many people are lifetime losers.

Even if you're a very good player, if you decide to stay at a horrible table then you are bad at poker. There's a lot more to it than just betting.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:52 PM   #10546
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poker's a beautiful game because you can just let wrong people be wrong
Even more satisfying than that, you can directly *profit* from wrong people being wrong
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:54 PM   #10547
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Do you think there comes a point where the lineup toughens enough at a raked table where the game becomes unbeatable?

GIthinktheobviousansweris"yes",butIgetthefeelingno teveryoneagreeswiththatG
I am sure that such condition can exist, but I doubt that it will ever happen in LLSNL.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:54 PM   #10548
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Do you think there comes a point where the lineup toughens enough at a raked table where the game becomes unbeatable?



GIthinktheobviousansweris"yes",butIgetthefeelingno teveryoneagreeswiththatG

100% yes. But that rarely comes up in live casino poker. It can come up in private games with high rake. Here is why:
- the games that have a significant rake impact are 1/2, 1/3 etc.
- there is not enough talent assembled in those games that they are unbeatable.
- games that have the potential to be the lineup of death are usually mid-stakes+... A T/25 game with $15/hr in time rake per player is a tiny tiny rake effect. At this stake, the games don't run without reason and even then - someone is top dog.

Last edited by bip!; 09-17-2015 at 02:10 PM.
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Old 09-17-2015, 01:55 PM   #10549
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Even if you're a very good player, if you decide to stay at a horrible table then you are bad at poker.
I wish I kept stats on this, but my room has been decimated to the point where I'd guess something like 1/2 of my hours this year have been played while there has only been one table running. Lots of these times I've looked around the table, sighed, and said "meh", but I knowingly stay at this poor table because (a) it's my one poker outing this week and I've still got 5 more allotted hours to play (after all, I am just a rec player playing a game) and (b) hopefully the game improves / more tables start running.

GbutIknowdamnwellI'mplayingatabadtableG
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Old 09-17-2015, 02:04 PM   #10550
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I wish I kept stats on this, but my room has been decimated to the point where I'd guess something like 1/2 of my hours this year have been played while there has only been one table running. Lots of these times I've looked around the table, sighed, and said "meh", but I knowingly stay at this poor table because (a) it's my one poker outing this week and I've still got 5 more allotted hours to play (after all, I am just a rec player playing a game) and (b) hopefully the game improves / more tables start running.

GbutIknowdamnwellI'mplayingatabadtableG
I have been playing in single table games for the last 4 years.
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