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Old 09-12-2015, 05:37 PM   #10426
mpethybridge
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
IRS does not have any daily tracking requirements to my knowledge but I am no accountant.
I'm not an accountant either. But I looked it up a few years ago, and ISTR that daily records will be required to withstand an audit, just as they would be for, say, deductible mileage.

So, they don't say, "you have to keep daily records of results," but they do say "to be entitled to a deduction, you need to have a contemporaneously made writing that recorded the event" or words to that effect. Which makes it crazy NOT to keep a daily record.

I don't have any idea what the rule is for amateurs, so someone else may not have the same concerns, and IANALA, and I am not a CPA, so consult a tax professional conversant in gaming law, yada yada.
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Old 09-12-2015, 06:28 PM   #10427
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First 100 hours, 70/hr. Next 70 hours, 0/hr. Final 30 hours, 100/hr.
(Super noob play, everything went well) (Arrogant Play) (Starting to feel it)

I know, Lol absurd 200 hrs, not significant. But Feeling pretty good.

Last 30 hours, not a single significant pot in which I was sucked out. Wahooooo
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Old 09-12-2015, 06:49 PM   #10428
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Yeah, this. Tommy Angelo writes counterproductive nonsense. The idea that your reaction to being out drawn should be "w00t! I got it in good!" is delusional. It can apply to one bad beat, or even two, but no one ever ran like UCD has run and said that to all 15 buy ins evaporating. It's not possible, and telling people to try just sets them up for failure. Now they're thinking "why can't I handle this swing like Angelo says to? There must be something wrong with me," when, in truth, it simply isn't possible to be indifferent to negative variance.

I do agree that reminding yourself that you got it in good is a useful way to manage the emotion of losing to a huge suckout, though. But not having the emotions is an impossible ideal.
I think Angelo would agree it's an impossible ideal. I think his claim is that trying to come as close as you can to that ideal makes you a better player. That's what I got from his stuff at least and I agree with that.

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So a player with a 1% risk of ruin should react to losing his entire bankroll due in full part to negative variance in the same way someone who knew there was a 100% chance of rain should? Variance is variance, but saying there is a 100% chance that any given amount of variance will occur is wrong. I don't care how eloquently Tommy Angelo put it.
There's no "should" or "deserve" in poker, is the point. "Woe is me" doesn't help you. If you are truly the unluckiest bastard in poker and get dumped on at every opportunity, complaining about it won't change your results, and being pitied won't make you richer. That's the purely logical view.

I'm not saying I don't whine about beats or that people should be expected not to. It's totally natural.
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Old 09-12-2015, 07:11 PM   #10429
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been a pro poker player for 6 years and the idea of a stop win has never once crossed my mind (degen??)
I mean you have those emotional moments where you think it would be nice to win x amount but then you just think ah yes but what about x+1
only time I've considered/used it is there is an uncapped 2/5 NLO game the town over. There are giant fish in the game reloading for $20k and shoving pf with AAxx. You're going to eventually get stacked if you stay in.
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Old 09-12-2015, 07:50 PM   #10430
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Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse View Post
Im UP at 2/3/5 this year!!

I also work full time so the money is whatever. But it would be nice to have AA hold sometimes.
UCD, I think you are making the point that I was making. It sounds like you are running fine at the 2/3/5 game, so be thankful that your horrible negative variance occurred at the 1/2/3 game.

FWIW, I would be much happier at having negative variance crush me at 2/5 NL instead of having the negative variance crush me at 25/50 NL.
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Old 09-12-2015, 10:18 PM   #10431
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UCD, I think you are making the point that I was making. It sounds like you are running fine at the 2/3/5 game, so be thankful that your horrible negative variance occurred at the 1/2/3 game.

FWIW, I would be much happier at having negative variance crush me at 2/5 NL instead of having the negative variance crush me at 25/50 NL.
That's the kind of justification i make to myself as well, lol. Kind of like thinking of it as a silver lining.

It's either "I could've ran bad at higher", or "they could've had more money back"

It's pretty funny how your winrate is affected SO much by these random factors. Eg. Getting 2 outted by a tiny stack vs. being super deep, or running super hot at 1/2 vs. that one time shot taking T/25.
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Old 09-12-2015, 10:20 PM   #10432
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
IRS does not have any daily tracking requirements to my knowledge but I am no accountant.

This is exactly incorrect
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Old 09-12-2015, 10:20 PM   #10433
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This is exactly incorrect
You tell 'em smartypants
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Old 09-12-2015, 10:28 PM   #10434
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You tell 'em smartypants

I'm jus sayin
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Old 09-12-2015, 10:44 PM   #10435
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Solid posts mpethy. It's also just a dumb ideal imo. Being completely numb to variance is a good way of busting a roll. It's like saying if you train yourself to not feel heat you won't notice if you get a minor burn. Sure that's great for running your hand over a candle but when you get your leg gets lit on fire it might be helpful to know you are about to go up in flames.

Very true about running bad at low stakes vs high stakes atsai. It's what killed me last year. Was up a few thousand bbs yet down over 50k at one point.
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Old 09-12-2015, 11:14 PM   #10436
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I'm jus sayin
Yea should elaborate on it
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Old 09-13-2015, 12:52 AM   #10437
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



first one is since I've been back like last 16 days or something second one is the results I've tracked since mid april including the 3.5 months that I didn't play due to my breakdown

edited because I put the wrong graph
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Old 09-13-2015, 01:34 AM   #10438
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I guess pro by definition is anyone who plays poker and has no job.
I think the precise definition is one whose primary source of income is from poker.
I am retired with no job, but I have retirement income & wife has a nice job.
No Ramen noodle diet for me!
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Old 09-13-2015, 01:38 AM   #10439
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Lol I get the point. Variance is going to happen. Not everyone is going to go on the type of run he just described live though and it's foolish to compare that kind of bad run to a foregone conclusion.
Bryan Devonshire wrote in his article in Cardplayer several issues ago that he once went on an 18 month losing streak. He did not elaborate, so I guess if you start the 18 months with 10k & have 9.88k at the end that's a downswing.
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Old 09-13-2015, 01:53 AM   #10440
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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
So a player with a 1% risk of ruin should react to losing his entire bankroll due in full part to negative variance in the same way someone who knew there was a 100% chance of rain should? Variance is variance, but saying there is a 100% chance that any given amount of variance will occur is wrong. I don't care how eloquently Tommy Angelo put it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Yeah, this. Tommy Angelo writes counterproductive nonsense. The idea that your reaction to being out drawn should be "w00t! I got it in good!" is delusional. It can apply to one bad beat, or even two, but no one ever ran like UCD has run and said that to all 15 buy ins evaporating. It's not possible, and telling people to try just sets them up for failure. Now they're thinking "why can't I handle this swing like Angelo says to? There must be something wrong with me," when, in truth, it simply isn't possible to be indifferent to negative variance.

I do agree that reminding yourself that you got it in good is a useful way to manage the emotion of losing to a huge suckout, though. But not having the emotions is an impossible ideal.
I agree & I didn't mean to come across as if you should take such a bad run like a Bot. It's not possible. Hell, if I ran cool for 3 months straight & was down say only $10.00, I wouldn't be impressed with poker. However, knowing that it isn't my play that costing me the $$ is a confidence builder.

I'd be looking for ways to overcome the emotional downswing that rides along with the downswing. As far as that 1% risk of ruin - the chances of winning the Powerball is >300 million:1 yet someone continues to win.

**** happens. A few months back, someone I know was dealt KK two hands in a row. No big deal right? Well the same V was dealt AA those same 2 hands in a row. Hmmmm. Finally, both times the guy with KK flopped a set & won both pots.

I posted this in the probability section, asking what the odds were & the answer I got was 771k*771k:1.

What Tommy Angelo is saying, IMO, is that it is going to happen to someone. So, when it's you that it happens to, be aware of the fact that anything is possible & be mentally tough & work through it.

If you're a good poker play - This too shall pass.
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Old 09-13-2015, 04:52 AM   #10441
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I want some clarification of 2/4 live FR winrates for 2015. Games are mostly pretty passive/limpy and cally, people make plenty of calling mistakes, a couple pros every so often and some aggressive Iso/3bb heavy games.

My research tells me a good pro can make 10bb/hr but I have no idea how this can be even slightly reasonable over a converged sample. If you play 25-30 hands per hour (10 handed game), this means we're looking at 30-40bb/100? With the high rake, surely there's no way this is possible. AFAIK the best possible online 2NL FR winrate is around 15-20bb/100 so how is it possible people are saying 30-40bb/100 is attainable live with the increased rake?

Can someone offer a reasonable winrate for a very solid 2/4 or 2/5 reg in today's live game?
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Old 09-13-2015, 06:19 AM   #10442
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pro Tip #476: if you want to repeatedly get paid off at 1/2 at 4am, stack your chips like this

I was in the 4 seat, 3 and 5 seats were open and I just kept expanding my empire with absurd value bets that no one believed because I was drunk and dong this ****. lol



(i took this right after the table broke, hence the lack of people)
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Old 09-13-2015, 06:53 AM   #10443
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
I want some clarification of 2/4 live FR winrates for 2015. Games are mostly pretty passive/limpy and cally, people make plenty of calling mistakes, a couple pros every so often and some aggressive Iso/3bb heavy games.

My research tells me a good pro can make 10bb/hr but I have no idea how this can be even slightly reasonable over a converged sample. If you play 25-30 hands per hour (10 handed game), this means we're looking at 30-40bb/100? With the high rake, surely there's no way this is possible. AFAIK the best possible online 2NL FR winrate is around 15-20bb/100 so how is it possible people are saying 30-40bb/100 is attainable live with the increased rake?

Can someone offer a reasonable winrate for a very solid 2/4 or 2/5 reg in today's live game?
TBQH, I'm not sure it is possible in Australia, given how ridiculous your rake is down there. It's definitely doable with a 10% to a max of $5 plus $2 to the jackpot fund drop, though. Edges live are just that much greater.
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Old 09-13-2015, 07:08 AM   #10444
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TBQH, I'm not sure it is possible in Australia, given how ridiculous your rake is down there. It's definitely doable with a 10% to a max of $5 plus $2 to the jackpot fund drop, though. Edges live are just that much greater.
This is the rake structure my local uses:

Quote:
$400NL BI: $100 - $400 RAKE: 10% Capped at $13
$5/$5 BI: $300 - $700 RAKE: 5% Capped at $20
Does this rake make the game unbeatable? Remembering, of course, gambling income in Australia is not taxable and you're not allowed to tip the dealers.
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Old 09-13-2015, 07:15 AM   #10445
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I am given to understand that the game is still beatable, as the standard of play is so very low. I don't know about 10bb/hr, though. There are a few other Aussies ITF who can hopefully give you more insight. 5/5 sure sounds like a much better game given that structure, but it's still an outrageous rake cap.
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Old 09-13-2015, 07:21 AM   #10446
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I am given to understand that the game is still beatable, as the standard of play is so very low. I don't know about 10bb/hr, though. There are a few other Aussies ITF who can hopefully give you more insight. 5/5 sure sounds like a much better game given that structure, but it's still an outrageous rake cap.
Know of any of the usernames of Aussies I could talk to? Problem is for me that the 5/5 game doesn't run as often as I'd need it to and attracts mostly regs.
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Old 09-13-2015, 08:33 AM   #10447
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Know of any of the usernames of Aussies I could talk to? Problem is for me that the 5/5 game doesn't run as often as I'd need it to and attracts mostly regs.
I know a winning high stakes PLO player whose advice [to avg players] is never to play in the highest spread game. That's where the best players are. He doesn't follow that advice, but then, he's not an avg player.
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Old 09-13-2015, 08:43 AM   #10448
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feel wrath would be my first recommendation, but he's on a self-ban to focus on his business for the next couple of weeks, I believe. danhendo888 is stepping back from poker, so IDK if he's posting much, but he could help you too.
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Old 09-13-2015, 01:13 PM   #10449
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Know of any of the usernames of Aussies I could talk to? Problem is for me that the 5/5 game doesn't run as often as I'd need it to and attracts mostly regs.
I'm Aussie here. Are you talking about Crown or Star here?
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Old 09-13-2015, 01:34 PM   #10450
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Probably the single biggest difference between live and online is that players do not like to fold hands in live poker. Thus, players play more hands preflop (major leak), and are less likely to fold them when they hit a piece. This likely accounts for much of the differences in winrates.
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