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Old 10-05-2019, 02:51 PM   #4001
Spreek
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
Let me throw this out there first, I'm very close to 100% sure he's cheating in some way, at some point in some sessions.

But...proving it mathematically is an entirely different problem:

1) His VPIP isn't a static number. There's plenty of live games I go way outside my regular VPIP in various situations like: as the stacks become deeper, if I have a lot tells/reads on a player, I'm playing in position with weaker players and there isn't a lot of 3betting going on, even the number of initial players will have an impact. So, if you tracked my VPIP for one session it might be completely different than for another.
2) His WR isn't necessary perfectly accurate. It's been documented that add-ons,re-buys weren't taken into account in a lot of the sample that was collected.
3) 300 hours isn't a big sample in a live game setting. We're talking maybe 6,000 total hands. I had a similar period where I played live when I was staked mostly 2/5 games(some 1/3 private home games too) where I played 34 sessions in two months. I won in 31 of those sessions. My bb/100 if I took the time to calculate you would probably think it was impossible...without cheating. But, I wasn't cheating. I just ran hot and played really well...as well as the competition wasn't very good mostly.

Totally agree. IMO he is definitely cheating, but most of the statistical evidence being used has been laughably bad.

We are making so many assumptions here that you don't get to plug everything in and just calculate a p-value at the end and call it a day (even if you claim to be making conservative assumptions!). To talk about one that is probably inaccurate, the game is technically 1/3 or 5/5 but often plays much higher. So if the game is really like a 1/3/10 game that is playing 3k+ deep, then the "conservative" assumption of 40bb/100 true winrate and 400bb stdev could be way off. But even if not, just having a lot of assumptions means that your error can propagate and make tail events much more likely than assumed.

Also, a big problem with any statistical analysis is that the population of players who are accused of cheating (especially if they are accused specifically because they are winning so much!) are disproportionately likely to be running well above expectation. So at a minimum, you need to condition on his observed winrate being on the high side.

Most likely, the conclusion would still be that cheating is highly likely. But the people saying that it is 10^-91 that he is not cheating based purely on stats are being dumb.
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:51 PM   #4002
andreasfroehli
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Put together a video of Justin and what we have so far:
https://youtu.be/b1WFnSVsBL4

Would anyone disagree /have more accurate ideas?? Let me know on twitter:
https://twitter.com/AndreasFroehli
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:54 PM   #4003
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Wow, 4k posts and 435k views already. Would be interested to know if anyone remembers another thread getting more action than this one.
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:56 PM   #4004
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Wow! This hand is incredible. Was this a float call on flop and he was planning on stealing on the turn? Its at 3:10:50

https://youtu.be/Y7qdxt2cTeM?t=11453
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:56 PM   #4005
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by SemiFreddo View Post
Is there a Mike Postle GodMode hand where Mike is not looking at his phone at some point in the hand ?
It's hard to say because he keeps his phone on his lap most of the time and can just glance down at it.

I don't believe he is looking down at his phone in the following hand given how much information there is for him to process preflop. It's possible he was staring at it when the camera wasn't looking or potentially he just looks down at his equity but more than likely someone is relaying him information through a headset. He is moving his hand around his crotch a lot.

https://youtu.be/PR6eMJZ3STk?t=2440

My guess is there are lots of hands where he isn't looking down much at all.
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:59 PM   #4006
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loff View Post
Nut flush on a paired board decides to just call vs a fun player even after flop goes check check. A pro simply always rip it in here. It such an obvious +EV shove that not shoving cannot be done without knowing the holdings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg34...utu.be&t=10639

In case link doesnt work its at 2:57:15

--------------

Here is The Fun part in another spot where the board is paired and facing a ****ing OVERBET he finds it logical to massivly raise.

https://youtu.be/Gaek0o6eYTo?t=4387

- 1:13:19

----------------------------------------------


So he only calls vs super small block bet with the nut flush in the first hand and ****ing and raises to an OVERBET in the second. 100% cheating, no i mean 100000% he is cheating.

Sorry if its been linked before. I just connected the two hands
O.M.G.

He doesn't even care about being consistent on the lines he uses, lol.

Funny thing is he is completely crazy lunatic player pre flop and pos flop he suddenly turns into a passive player avoiding a massive cooler somehow.

Mike is the only player in the world who can play fundamentally flawed preflop ranges and profit more than Potripper!

Coach me, pls.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:00 PM   #4007
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ukbilly View Post
Wow, 4k posts and 435k views already. Would be interested to know if anyone remembers another thread getting more action than this one.
I’d guess the Black Friday reaction thread would beat it as it affected everyone but this has been remarkable
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:02 PM   #4008
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
... He is moving his hand around his crotch a lot.

.
multi-tasking ?
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:03 PM   #4009
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

It's so hilarious to me that in so many hands these commentators are basically sucking Mike off but also doing it with comparing him to a poker bot etc.

The only 2 I have found so far that have even questioned his play are Kasey and Veronica; and when they do, the co-commentator just tries to brush it off and move on.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mike was tipping the comms crew and/or buying them dinner and drinks to keep them on side.

The streams are 4 hours? Can't be more than 150-200 bucks per show for the commentary team (still a nice hourly tho). But yeah if a dude who is winning all the time then comes and tips you the odd hundo here and there, you are def gonna 'root' for him a bit more.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:06 PM   #4010
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)



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Old 10-05-2019, 03:07 PM   #4011
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Spreek View Post
Totally agree. IMO he is definitely cheating, but most of the statistical evidence being used has been laughably bad.

We are making so many assumptions here that you don't get to plug everything in and just calculate a p-value at the end and call it a day (even if you claim to be making conservative assumptions!). To talk about one that is probably inaccurate, the game is technically 1/3 or 5/5 but often plays much higher. So if the game is really like a 1/3/10 game that is playing 3k+ deep, then the "conservative" assumption of 40bb/100 true winrate and 400bb stdev could be way off. But even if not, just having a lot of assumptions means that your error can propagate and make tail events much more likely than assumed.

Also, a big problem with any statistical analysis is that the population of players who are accused of cheating (especially if they are accused specifically because they are winning so much!) are disproportionately likely to be running well above expectation. So at a minimum, you need to condition on his observed winrate being on the high side.

Most likely, the conclusion would still be that cheating is highly likely. But the people saying that it is 10^-91 that he is not cheating based purely on stats are being dumb.
No, you don't get it.

It's not about running above expectations only. It's about his lines being INCONSISTENT. His lines won't add up.

If you're a seasoned player you don't necessarily need a huge sample to notice something is off btw.

Facing the same spot he raises against an OVERBET and just calls against a regular bet.

He reads everyone's souls everytime and he is right everytime.

This has never been seen before in poker history and never will be (unless someone is cheating like he is)
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:08 PM   #4012
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by eric1978 View Post
Wow! This hand is incredible. Was this a float call on flop and he was planning on stealing on the turn? Its at 3:10:50

https://youtu.be/Y7qdxt2cTeM?t=11453
Here again the commentators are asking the question "what if mike just rips here" in a spot where its -EV to rip. Another spot where the commentators suggest him doing a terrible play in a vacuum but at the moment would be correct. Seen it many many times.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:10 PM   #4013
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by sirswish6 View Post


Could be something here if I could read pixels
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:11 PM   #4014
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HarryKane09 View Post
It's so hilarious to me that in so many hands these commentators are basically sucking Mike off but also doing it with comparing him to a poker bot etc.

The only 2 I have found so far that have even questioned his play are Kasey and Veronica; and when they do, the co-commentator just tries to brush it off and move on.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mike was tipping the comms crew and/or buying them dinner and drinks to keep them on side.

The streams are 4 hours? Can't be more than 150-200 bucks per show for the commentary team (still a nice hourly tho). But yeah if a dude who is winning all the time then comes and tips you the odd hundo here and there, you are def gonna 'root' for him a bit more.
That makes no sense. He says he hates attention and accolades.

*sarcasm*
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:12 PM   #4015
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
Could be something here if I could read pixels
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:13 PM   #4016
Spreek
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
No, you don't get it.

It's not about running above expectations only. It's about his lines being INCONSISTENT. His lines won't add up.

If you're a seasoned player you don't necessarily need a huge sample to notice something is off btw.

Facing the same spot he raises against an OVERBET and just calls against a regular bet.

He reads everyone's souls everytime and he is right everytime.

This has never been seen before in poker history and never will be (unless someone is cheating like he is)
Of course. That's why I said he is definitely cheating.

But what you are talking about (in its current form at least) is not statistical evidence. "Noticing" that something is off is not statistical evidence (even if everyone agrees and it is almost certainly true!). There are probably some ways to statistically test these claims (especially if/when we get hand level data), and they will likely show cheating.

But if we are talking about a court of law, then the "everyone knows something is off" claim might not be as effective as we would hope. That's why statistical evidence is important.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:15 PM   #4017
n00ki5
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by a dewd View Post
That makes no sense. He says he hates attention and accolades.

*sarcasm*
Yea he hates attention and somehow he loves to play on stream and stops playing right after.

Yea........
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:15 PM   #4018
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ConnorLeon View Post
Wasn't it pokertableratings.com, not pokertablerankings.com?
Yes but his ptr is not archived.

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-S.../YNGMANN4QUIKI

https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-S...layers/Fleacer
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:15 PM   #4019
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
No, you don't get it.

It's not about running above expectations only. It's about his lines being INCONSISTENT. His lines won't add up.

If you're a seasoned player you don't necessarily need a huge sample to notice something is off btw.

Facing the same spot he raises against an OVERBET and just calls against a regular bet.

He reads everyone's souls everytime and he is right everytime.

This has never been seen before in poker history and never will be (unless someone is cheating like he is)

^^^^^^^
This, The debate isnt whether or not the man is cheating we know with 100% certainty that the man is cheating. The only thing left to do is find physical evidence of it along with finding out who is accomplice(s) are and im sure with a years worth of streams to deciphyer somebody will in fact find the "Smoking Gun" If you are reading this mike just know your time is coming the clock is ticking.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:18 PM   #4020
a dewd
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by n00ki5 View Post
Yea he hates attention and somehow he loves to play on stream and stops playing right after.



Yea........
Dont forget his book. Private game named after him, and willingness to ham it up on the camera.

About the only time he appears to be disinterested in anything is when at the table. Claims to make great live reads without engaging a single player or focusing on the game.

Guy is more contradictory than a book of antonyms.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:18 PM   #4021
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I also wanted to send a brief overview of what I think the most likely scenario is based on the current evidence. I've followed this thing extremely closely over the last 4-5 days and wanted to share my thoughts based on all the current information before signing off for a few days.

I agree with a lot of the consensus that Justin may not have been Mike's #1 accomplice. He definitely could've still been involved in some way and at the very least, was extremely negligent in letting this go on under his watch. I would say there's a 50% chance he was on it as well, but I firmly believe Taylor Smith was Mike's #1 accomplice and perhaps, the only one.



Taylor commentated on 7 sessions in 2019. Mike only played in 2/7 games, one 1-3 and one PLO8, neither game very deep. There is no evidence of him superusing in these sessions.

As far as Mike not superusing when Justin is out of town except for 2 sessions, I believe the answer to this can be found by the location of the poker room posted yesterday by Veronica.



As she mentioned, sometime last year the curtain was placed in between the poker table and the desk/booth. She mentions Justin and the "gentleman running the stream" were the only ones back there during the stream. Assuming this mystery "gentleman" is Taylor, I think we can conclude he was the main accomplice. I couldn't find his specific job title and am not sure if he was in the "tech room" or in the desk with Justin, but am assuming this was him for all extensive purposes. I would like any additional information on the employees involved in producing the stream and who was located where and their job titles.

Whenever Justin was on vacation, I believe he had a replacement (other floor guy who worked under him) who spent time in the desk and thus prevented Taylor from streaming to Mike. Also, whenever they needed Taylor to fill in the commentary booth, no cheating occurred.

The last open question is the method the live information was sent to Mike. Based on the PLO hand I posted last night along with other evidence. I think Mike was watching the live stream on his phone. This explains him constantly looking in his lap. I also believe he was wearing a bluetooth under his hat, but this was not the primary source of his information. I believe this was primarily used for telling him how to play hands or communicate if any unusual circumstances came up. This can explain how the changing of the cards in the 89ss was executed. Both parties would have been on the exact same page for them to execute the timing of this. As far as how the stream was technically sent to Mike, probably some type of program installed on Stones' computer.

I don't think Mike or anyone else had access to turn/river cards through bracelets, keys, etc.

Last, I am somewhat skeptical that anything significant will happen legally to Mike and his accomplice(s). If the Casino's defense attorney who is currently performing the "independent" investigation does another cover-up investigation, when the civil claims are processed and any investigation from the relevant gambling authorities, I do not know if Mike's results will be enough to be found guilty. While everyone reading this knows that his results can be proven and are statistically impossible without cheating, I don't know if the same will hold true when looked at by a judge or jury. The reason is the defense can use evidence from all the sessions even the ones where he wasn't superusing. Based on my data, I think he was only superusing in something around 30/50 sessions in 2019. He still had a positive win rate in these sessions and I think it will be tough to distinguish in court which sessions he was superusing in. The defense may use examples where he played sub-optimally in these non cheating sessions. The investigators will need to find some type of trail, either through IT records or bank records, to have a slam dunk case. I'm sure I made a ton of errors in this last paragraph relating to the legal proceedings as I am not familiar with the process/not a lawyer, just wanted to point out a few of the reasons why I am skeptical.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:18 PM   #4022
opph20
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryKane09 View Post
It's so hilarious to me that in so many hands these commentators are basically sucking Mike off but also doing it with comparing him to a poker bot etc.

The only 2 I have found so far that have even questioned his play are Kasey and Veronica; and when they do, the co-commentator just tries to brush it off and move on.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mike was tipping the comms crew and/or buying them dinner and drinks to keep them on side.

The streams are 4 hours? Can't be more than 150-200 bucks per show for the commentary team (still a nice hourly tho). But yeah if a dude who is winning all the time then comes and tips you the odd hundo here and there, you are def gonna 'root' for him a bit more.
This ^^^

Would explain why Kasey and so many other of the commentators were so quick to defend him and say it's a witch hunt. Gotta keep the good tips coming in

I watched the solve 4 y video and after knowing Veronica never gave people she knew a heads up about playing against MP it seems pretty shady.

Why tell some people but not others? She told Bart Hanson but not Soto or burkey. Why not try to get as much info as you can and then blow the whistle. She was close to it and could have filled in the blanks of alot of info everyone is speculating on now

Good on her for calling it to everyone's attention but like Burkey said you may not have cheated but you let other people get cheated and did nothing about it so you're guilty by association. That's for everyone involved JFK and all the regular commentators

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Old 10-05-2019, 03:18 PM   #4023
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Could you use RFID in a home game to cheat?

Alot of my guys are on devices at all times.

Hosts are always winning.

Kinda just dawned on me.
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:20 PM   #4024
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by brsavage View Post
I can confirm Mike was friendly online with everyone who played consistently at UB. He was friendly with a lot of the ambassadors and went to the Aruba tournaments. Mike was well liked and considered a solid player. Sad - no doubt in my mind he cheated, evidence is overwhelming. I saw Mike last year I believe playing some of the regional tournaments on the gulf coast at Beau Rivage.
Wow brsavage where you have been!? I’m a huge fan, used to sweat you in all the big MTTs back in 2006. You were a (br)SAVAGE! Give the fans a life update!
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Old 10-05-2019, 03:23 PM   #4025
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
Yes and I generally agree, this is why I said in my post above that I have sympathy with veronica, if you want to actually charge mike your going to need physical evidence, any evidence that existed on a phone/computer/ etc etc is gone by now.

Also it's not just the math, it's also the way he plays which does not match with the math, he plays like a very loose fish that calls very wide preflop, but then all of a sudden has the ability to check/call the river with the nut flush. I agree that he can easily argue that I just got lucky/ran good and he will probably be safe criminally wise.
Yeah, it's unfortunate. To get to the criminal trial you'd have to find willing law enforcement investigators & finding a willing prosecutor. Even then it would end in some type of plea the odds of it going to a jury are like super low. Without physical evidence AND eyewitness testimony from a conspiring party seems super unlikely anything will happen criminally.

I don't know. Just because you play a super wide range at times pre-flop doesn't make you a fish to me especially in these softer games.

When you start cold calling 3bets and 4bets with what happen to be trash live cards vs AK & AQ and always know where you're at preflop/postflop that's the dicey part that completely doesn't make sense. Add in you have entire sessions where you make 0 mistakes while doing this it's like he knows their hole cards...because he does know is the most obvious answer.
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