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Old 10-18-2019, 02:10 PM   #9001
ICrushDreams
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
Yes, the HHs would have to be put into one of the formats that could be imported into PT4/HM2, and that would be very time consuming. SrslySirius said he used to have to do this exact thing for some work he was doing, and he wrote a script that helps put it into the proper format. I believe he offered it for use for this purpose. He said it was still time consuming, but it helped.

Maybe it's not worth it, but if it showed that stark of a contrast between how perfectly he chooses when to bluff the river in god mode vs. not (as well as other situations), that would be the most compelling evidence in my opinion, especially because it would include every hand that matches the filter, not just a few cherry-picked ones.

I suppose this could also be done just by looking through all of the hands by their descriptions without having to turn them into HHs first, but once the effort was done to put them into HHs, the number of situations that could be quickly filtered on would likely uncover a lot of situations where he clearly knows the cards in a very convincing way.
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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
Yea I don't disagree that it would uncover situations we may have overlooked, as well as, be useful in many other ways, but it's just such a gargantuan task to get the formatted HH that I don't think the payoff justifies the workload.

when you are talking about a 30 million dollar lawsuit...why would the lawyers not spend some money and get people to do this? These stats are very useful to have and to make a compelling argument which will be hard for the defense to refute.

matt berkey also mentioned really wanting to see his river stats, i.e. his stats on the river will probably in no way resemble regular human play and indicate an ability to see the cards.

dont get me wrong - its a lot of work to do this...I dont know how many hours of footage in total.... but its certainly worth doing and once its done the data can be uploaded and analyzed and pretty graphs can be made showing why its impossible, which is a helluva lotta better than ..... "your honor its just so sick how can he re-raise here again"
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Old 10-18-2019, 02:28 PM   #9002
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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when you are talking about a 30 million dollar lawsuit...
Really?

I heard Brill is looking at Malibu properties.
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Old 10-18-2019, 02:38 PM   #9003
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by piranha View Post
Thanks, one other thing I would add is that I think he intentionally pays off bets here and there particularly after doing a sequence of non-standard things that net him money. This is speculation but I feel very strongly it's true.

I guess the point I'm trying to get at is his win rate is that much more "impressive" given that he's not playing, or trying to play, perfect every hand.
He rarely intentionally pays off. The vast, vast majority of the times, in God mode, he finds hero folds.

Very seldom, he will intentionally pay off in a situation where a hero fold will look ridiculous, such as the 88 full house that he x/calls. But his more standard play with a strong 2nd best hand is to place a small blocking river bet, so he can then make a hero fold to a big re-raise.
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Old 10-18-2019, 02:51 PM   #9004
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Before you go off and pour over hundreds of hours of Mike Postle streams, why don't you contact a math/stats person. They can guide you on what factors you need to consider, what you are overlooking and if this is even worth doing. You could email professors at MIT, you could email the Bernie Madoff whistle blower, you could pm David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth on 2p2, you could tweet/email Bill Chen, author of "Mathematics of Poker", and Liv Boeree. I'd spend at least an hour or two contacting people and getting recommendations on how to proceed before spending so much time on what might be a fruitless endeavor.
i think you are the first person to mention madof. that is exactly who i was thinking of when i heard about this and watched some of the streams. the way mp laughs when he jams a victim reminds me of bernie banging his friends for more money for his scheme. and most of these folks mp knew just like bernie. but i just cant get it ou of my head that at least 1 other player had to be in on it. they all could not be that dense as to not watch the streams after they played over and over again and maybe figured it out. i mean veronica finally blew up in sept. but says she complained in march and still played on and on. i dont think it is her but something does not smell right about the folks in that game.
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Old 10-18-2019, 02:53 PM   #9005
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Analyzing the streams for HH data is what's referred to as an "embarrassingly parallel" problem. Meaning that each one is completely independent of the others and requires no communication. So it would be pretty easy to divide the workload between a team of people.

If a HH format, or spreadsheet format that can be automatically converted, was decided on it would just be an issue of assigning/claiming streams and spending a few hours each. If we had two people review each stream there'd be a check for errors too. This is the kind of thing I would have been all over doing a few years ago when I had more free time.
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Old 10-18-2019, 03:01 PM   #9006
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Wild Card View Post
Just looking over that 88 vs TT hand again. Looking over the potential error options.

The blinds are 5/5 with a $10 straddle on utg.
When you look back at the preceeding hand, from the size of the pot going to the flop $35x4 = $140, means that everyone else folded without putting a bet in.
So utg+1 folds, utg+2 folds, then it's Postles turn to be first to act.
So for there to be a persistency error, he would have to have folded 88 preflop from the Hijack, facing no action from anyone. Not even a limp.

He claims it was 78 in the next hand (in the 88 vs TT hand). So he folds with 88 preflop, but opens with a raise with 78? That would be his claim.

For there to be any persistency error at all, it must be that computer would have to register whatever hand it thought it was the first time around, during that hand.
There must be logs of all these hands right?
It's hard to say in this case since we do not know the exact suits of the 78, and the previous hand started showing mid hand. For scenario #4 to take place, he or someone else would have had to have 88 and accidentally flashed it over the reader after the operator hit the next hand button. I guess it is a possibility that someone could have thrown a single 8 over his reader and it picked it up, but we cannot verify bc the last hand started mid-way.

Yes, there should be logs. I believe someone posted that all data is backed up in a database by PokerGFX.
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Old 10-18-2019, 03:56 PM   #9007
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I am never going to accuse any specific player of cheating without evidence. As far as I am concerned, everyone really is innocent until proven guilty.

Without in any way making such accusations though, I would certainly recommend that people scrutinize all poker streams. If this could be done at Stones, that means it's possible it could have been done elsewhere. And it could be done by a player better at covering his or her tracks than Postle. People should certainly have second thoughts about playing in live streamed games until we find out exactly what happened here and how it can be prevented in the future.
interesting to see the Polk tweet about this today.

Last edited by soapdodger; 10-18-2019 at 04:03 PM.
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Old 10-18-2019, 04:24 PM   #9008
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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interesting to see the Polk tweet about this today.
Yeah. Here's the tweet:

https://twitter.com/DougPolkPoker/st...57213360607232
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Old 10-18-2019, 04:49 PM   #9009
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

There may be someone cheating RFID games intelligently who probably hates Mike Postle more than anyone right now.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:03 PM   #9010
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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There may be someone cheating RFID games intelligently who probably hates Mike Postle more than anyone right now.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:07 PM   #9011
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Using info like Postal had "intelligently" one would only win 1 or 2 moves a night rather than what Postal did which was flat out kid in a candy store greedy... It could be going on in other streams for sure, but done with a bit more class.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:25 PM   #9012
September.28
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Cheating with technology could go further than just RFID. In another thread someone mentioned that shuffle machines have the ability to set a deck to a precise sequence. For example, you could use shuffle machines during a Bridge tournament and have the machine at one table shuffle the cards and then the linked shuffle machines at every other table could sort the cards in that exact order so that every table in the Bridge tournament was playing the same sequence of cards. If shuffle card machines can be linked like that, imagine if you had the "master" shuffle machine or some software pretending to be the "master" shuffle machine that told the shuffle machine at the live stream table to order the cards so that your partner at the table won pots every now and then in a normalish way that didn't seem alarming (or just hit a bad beat jackpot).

Last edited by September.28; 10-18-2019 at 05:40 PM.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:35 PM   #9013
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Cheating with technology could go further than just RFID. In another thread someone mentioned that shuffle machines have the ability to set a deck to a precise sequence. For example, you could use shuffle machines during a Bridge tournament and have the machine at one table shuffle the cards and then the linked shuffle machines at every other table could sort the cards in that exact order so that every table in the Bridge tournament was playing the same sequence of cards. If shuffle card machines can be linked like that imagine if you had the "master" shuffle machine or some software pretending to be the "master" shuffle machine that told the shuffle machine at the live stream table to order the cards so that your partner at the table won pots every now and then in a normalish way that didn't seem alarming (or just a hit bad beat jackpot).
And how exactly does it manage that after the dealer cuts the cards in front of everyone before dealing? Any poker rooms that don't do that, should do that. But the idea that the shuffle machine is setting the deck is crazy.

Last edited by Eponymous; 10-18-2019 at 05:43 PM.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:46 PM   #9014
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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And how exactly does it manage that after the dealer cuts the cards in front of everyone before dealing? Any poker rooms that don't do that, should do that. But the idea that the shuffle machine is setting the deck is crazy.
I play in several California casinos where they have stopped cutting the deck.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:47 PM   #9015
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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And how exactly does it manage that after the dealer cuts the cards in front of everyone before dealing? Any poker rooms that don't do that, should do that. But the idea that the shuffle machine is setting the deck is crazy.
i can't find it now, especially with all the new poker cheating stuff but pretty sure it was done by someone at 2p2 where they wrote an algo to detect and actually found there are indeed some sequencing of cards that under certain conditions will always deal the winning the hand to a specific seat regardless of where the deck is cut

not saying it's easy but it's been proven that the possibility exists

IIRC those machines don't actually shuffle either, they use an rng to determine a shuffle and then put the cards in that order - which begs the question why do it that way? Maybe there's a hardware or software reason behind it, but it's certainly an exploit, especially if it's true that someone mentioned earlier they can all connect via wifi.
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:50 PM   #9016
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by September.28 View Post
Cheating with technology could go further than just RFID. In another thread someone mentioned that shuffle machines have the ability to set a deck to a precise sequence. For example, you could use shuffle machines during a Bridge tournament and have the machine at one table shuffle the cards and then the linked shuffle machines at every other table could sort the cards in that exact order so that every table in the Bridge tournament was playing the same sequence of cards. If shuffle card machines can be linked like that, imagine if you had the "master" shuffle machine or some software pretending to be the "master" shuffle machine that told the shuffle machine at the live stream table to order the cards so that your partner at the table won pots every now and then in a normalish way that didn't seem alarming (or just hit a bad beat jackpot).
I know for a fact they can put the cards in any order they want. They use the shufflers to put all the cards in order by suit before they use it again.
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Old 10-18-2019, 06:15 PM   #9017
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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IIRC those machines don't actually shuffle either, they use an rng to determine a shuffle and then put the cards in that order - which begs the question why do it that way? Maybe there's a hardware or software reason behind it, but it's certainly an exploit, especially if it's true that someone mentioned earlier they can all connect via wifi.
It's so it can "shuffle" without replicating the action of a hand shuffle, which would be a difficult thing to accomplish in a fast, compact, reliable machine. It is mechanically easier to grab each card and place it in the new stack in a random order.
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Old 10-18-2019, 06:20 PM   #9018
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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i can't find it now, especially with all the new poker cheating stuff but pretty sure it was done by someone at 2p2 where they wrote an algo to detect and actually found there are indeed some sequencing of cards that under certain conditions will always deal the winning the hand to a specific seat regardless of where the deck is cut
Even if there is an arrangement of cards that works out to dealing the winning hand to a specific seat no matter how it's cut (if that exists, I'm assuming it means when the board is fully dealt), what happens when someone sits out a hand and there are only 8 seats instead of 9 or whatever the deck was set for?
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Old 10-18-2019, 06:26 PM   #9019
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I dont believe he is innocent.but if a court of law were to find him not guilty (which is a strong posibility) anyone who accused him of cheating,could be facing some hefty lawsuits against them.
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Old 10-18-2019, 06:47 PM   #9020
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I dont believe he is innocent.but if a court of law were to find him not guilty (which is a strong posibility) anyone who accused him of cheating,could be facing some hefty lawsuits against them.
The likelihood of that happening is almost as remote as the chance that he's not cheating.

Also, not guilty and innocent are different things.
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:11 PM   #9021
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I dont believe he is innocent.but if a court of law were to find him not guilty (which is a strong posibility) anyone who accused him of cheating,could be facing some hefty lawsuits against them.
1. He is not on trial in a criminal matter,

2. Even if he were adjudicated (found) not guilty in a criminal proceeding, he could still be sued civilly for his actions.

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/...612-story.html(Goldman civil proceeding v. OJ)

There is a lot of space between, "beyond a reasonable doubt" and "by a preponderance of the evidence".
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:13 PM   #9022
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Using info like Postal had "intelligently" one would only win 1 or 2 moves a night rather than what Postal did which was flat out kid in a candy store greedy... It could be going on in other streams for sure, but done with a bit more class.
Yeah, someone who already is a solid winner/crusher who only uses this in 1 or 2 big pots a night rather than vpiping 60% and trying to win every pot will become a really big winner without seeming too suspicious.
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:15 PM   #9023
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I dont believe he is innocent.but if a court of law were to find him not guilty (which is a strong posibility) anyone who accused him of cheating,could be facing some hefty lawsuits against them.
OJ is going to sue everyone who said he was a murderer any day now!
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:21 PM   #9024
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I dont believe he is innocent.but if a court of law were to find him not guilty (which is a strong posibility) anyone who accused him of cheating,could be facing some hefty lawsuits against them.


So this is why I read your screen name as thermo donk Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:28 PM   #9025
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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And I have said this since this whole cheating story broke. That if it was done at Stones so easily for so long it probably has been done in the past. Probably multiple times. Postle was just the first SOB to be caught.
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