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Old 10-05-2019, 12:45 PM   #3901
parisron
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by TomHimself View Post
I'm glad Admo popped in offering his help for making a website. thumbsup
Yes I see there is a placeholder website under Mike's name and says:

Mike Postle
"Its always better to ride in the front of the bus...except when it crashes."
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:45 PM   #3902
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loctus View Post

I would think that a gambling commision or law enforcement getting this case actually would spend their time going through the thread though.
It's unlikely a single one of them knows what twitch is and you think they're gonna read an entire giant thread on the internet? come on man.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:46 PM   #3903
Love_the_game
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBTJ...outu.be&t=8310

Kasey finally starting to be concerned about The Impostle's play and JFK TD quickly shuts her down and explains it away.
lol i love how he lowers his voice like saying quiet down woman!!
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:48 PM   #3904
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by tgiggity View Post
used to play at stones all the time when I lived nearby, including on stream. always assumed mike was a massive whale/degen on a heater and tbh I always hoped he would be there because he played so poorly.

I remember watching the 88 hand live on stream when it happened and automatically assuming the cards must have been read wrong because the RFID reader in the stones live games was always really bad - I gave up trying to watch the streams I played in because it had the cards wrong so often. only played on stream 2-3 times in 2017 though so I'm not sure how ongoing the RFID issue was
When I first heard of all this stuff with Mike postle I just assumed he was a fish/whale running hot. When you look at the math/vpip/videos/bb/100, it does not add up with how he plays, he will call extremely wide preflop "vpip of 60%+", play awful, then all of a sudden check/call the nut flush on the river when literally only 2 hand combinations beat you, 100% of winning players are at THE VERY LEAST 3betting in that scenerio, and a fish with a 60% vpip is DEFINATELY not folding, the **** just does not add up.

Ofcourse his opponent did have 1 of the 2 combinations and did hit the straight flush, how does a player with a 60%+ vpip pull of a play like that?

Last edited by tul6700; 10-05-2019 at 12:55 PM.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:54 PM   #3905
a dewd
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Loctus View Post
This is a good point. The FAQ I threw together that got moved to the 1st post is meant as a quick info notice to get the basics of the whole thing. It would be unfortunate if it's looked at by officials and they think "That's what they've got? Meh"

I guess we could compile something quite compelling if we aggregate all the info that's been brought up regarding individual hands, sessions, persons, etc

I would think that a gambling commision or law enforcement getting this case actually would spend their time going through the thread though. It's long, but just starting to read it should send anyone into the rabbit hole til' they're done reading it, especially if it's someone who gets paid to do so lol. Investigations and court documents are routinely thousands of pages of a lot more dense and boring information than this thread is
Agree mostly, but there may be some lost interest reading the thread with some of the details and petty digs/squabbles. It does make sense, albeit a lot of work for someone with all the data, to have one post that is pinned to the top with "detailed evidence" in case L.E. does happen by the thread. The spreadsheets, timestamped examples in videos, etc... would all be helpful for anyone looking for real info. Then when anything new is found, it could be edited to include it.

Some people have done tremendous work and big effort compiling real evidence. Any real investigation not performed by internal staff or their legal counsel would be able to get bonafide cliff notes.

I realize it is a serious undertaking to amass it in one post. Maybe the mods can put a post at the top that has a list of the real standout work done with links to each post.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:55 PM   #3906
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

If the commentators in the live booth cannot see the player's card in real time, please ignore this, otherwise read on to see my theory in how somebody can gain an edge:

Fact:
- Commentators have access to player's live hands after cards placed on RIFD scanner
- The booth can be access from time to time by non Stone Live staff
- Commentators discuss hands including cards value during the game

Theory:
A listening and transmit device placed inside the commentator's booth. Since this device would require power, it will need to be hidden and have access to plug in. It is possible that a device is hidden inside the drywall and can plug in the power source. It will need cellular data to transmit sound so it could be a cellphone with some basic app to handle this task.

Outsider can listening in the commentator discussing the card's value and somehow transmit that information to the cheater. It might take awhile to obtain with 100% certainty on the card so cheater usually have to wait to the turn cards to make their "God" like decision.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:56 PM   #3907
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PTLou View Post

Does any one think numnuts paid his taxes on his now documented 250K gambling winnings in 2018. IRS is ruthless. Of all his upcoming problems, this one by far the worst for him.
.
oh... forgot about this

https://www.irs.gov/compliance/whistleblower-informant-award

Whistleblower gets 30% of recovered taxes + fines

Lets say 200K of 2018 unreported income, and assume he already filed and didnt file an extension(s) which would give him untilOct 15.

~80K back taxes. penalties, etc another 40K.

Anyone want $40,000 ?

Joey and maybe a few others should get a cut.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:56 PM   #3908
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PraguePoker View Post
I think the amazing thing is really the opposite: that you can cheat so easily, and if you don't get greedy, you can get away for it for a long, long time.

You'll probably need someone on the inside. But if you could make do with a reasonable win rate, you are gold. Just don't call all in's with 5-4 offsuit. And fold a lot more to solid bluffs when it's just too ridiculous to call. And don't shove all in with no fold equity with bottom pair after villain shows strength, especially during bomb pots. Just avoid those cheating leaks, and you are going to profit.
well it is better to know than not know, ignorance is not bliss in this case. plus the barriers to entry are RFID tech and an inside man / abhorredly negligent floorman and lack security, which most of the poker world doesnt play on a daily basis. it is my belief there are more good actors than bad, and if the good actors are as knowledgable about these things than the bad, its more likely that they will get caught, i doubt something like this would go unnoticed again now that we all know it is possible. private / underground games will dry up like crazy though, but those are shady to begin with, and its good for players to know whats probably going on in those games
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:57 PM   #3909
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ImAllInNow View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBTJ...outu.be&t=8310

Kasey finally starting to be concerned about The Impostle's play and JFK TD quickly shuts her down and explains it away.
I was watching a show last night where Veronica was hosting w/ the fattrain guy and said something like it's like he can see the cards and his reaction was weird and uncomfortable, even started stuttering trying to maintain his host/hypeman persona...I'm convinced he knew we well. How was it was direct knowledge or not I dunno....but he's not a dumb guy
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:58 PM   #3910
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PTLou View Post
oh... forgot about this



https://www.irs.gov/compliance/whistleblower-informant-award



Whistleblower gets 30% of recovered taxes + fines



Lets say 200K of unreported income



~80K back taxes. penalties, etc another 40K.



Anyone want $40K ?.



Joey and maybe a few others should get a cut.
The whistleblower here is Veronica. Without her, zero discussion would have taken place. If there is a bounty to collect, it should be hers.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:01 PM   #3911
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

if she gets any money, she should donate it to the players, this aint some big corp whistleblower case

even if they get paid back in full, she should donate the money to them
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:03 PM   #3912
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ouirly View Post
It matches up exactly with the square that the guy who adjusted the contrast on Mike's hat showed

Ladies and gentlemen, we got him
That is very interesting!
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Originally Posted by Grind On My Mind View Post

.
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Originally Posted by Chaos_ult View Post
I played with the hue/saturation/brightness/contrast of the pictures of the stuffed hat, and interestingly, two shapes emerged that look suspiciously like what is shown in the above video link:

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Old 10-05-2019, 01:03 PM   #3913
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
well it is better to know than not know, ignorance is not bliss in this case. plus the barriers to entry are RFID tech and an inside man / abhorredly negligent floorman and lack security, which most of the poker world doesnt play on a daily basis. it is my belief there are more good actors than bad, and if the good actors are as knowledgable about these things than the bad, its more likely that they will get caught, i doubt something like this would go unnoticed again now that we all know it is possible. private / underground games will dry up like crazy though, but those are shady to begin with, and its good for players to know whats probably going on in those games
It only looks easy because mike has an inside man. Private games won’t dry up.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:08 PM   #3914
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
if she gets any money, she should donate it to the players, this aint some big corp whistleblower case

even if they get paid back in full, she should donate the money to them
Why? That pretty much neutralizes the entire whistleblower policy. The players would get paid back and damages. They'd have $0 money recovered if not for her. $0.00 They should be offering her something, not taking from her.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:09 PM   #3915
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Did Veronica quit on her own accord? Or was she basically told to resign? If she was let go for being a whistleblower, she definitely should be compensated.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:09 PM   #3916
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by vuview View Post
If the commentators in the live booth cannot see the player's card in real time, please ignore this, otherwise read on to see my theory in how somebody can gain an edge:

Fact:
- Commentators have access to player's live hands after cards placed on RIFD scanner
- The booth can be access from time to time by non Stone Live staff
- Commentators discuss hands including cards value during the game

Theory:
A listening and transmit device placed inside the commentator's booth. Since this device would require power, it will need to be hidden and have access to plug in. It is possible that a device is hidden inside the drywall and can plug in the power source. It will need cellular data to transmit sound so it could be a cellphone with some basic app to handle this task.

Outsider can listening in the commentator discussing the card's value and somehow transmit that information to the cheater. It might take awhile to obtain with 100% certainty on the card so cheater usually have to wait to the turn cards to make their "God" like decision.
The commentators are not looking at the live feed. Only the graphics are created live.

There are often people from the game giving their commentary on the hand that they themselves were playing in.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:11 PM   #3917
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by vuview View Post
If the commentators in the live booth cannot see the player's card in real time, please ignore this.
Commentators comment on delay.

I think it’s good to have lots of open ended brainstorming and then people can make “best of” compilations for law enforcement/lawyers down the road. Besides the FAQ on page 1 there’s another summary on Reddit and I’m sure we can keep compiling and editing.

But, it is worth again stating that so far, Postle has the stream or a summary of the stream sent to his phone and then later to his hat, probably by inside man, and Postle does not know runouts, or at least didn’t know runouts until close to the end. JFK is prime suspect for inside man followed by JFK + Taylor followed by just Taylor.

If your theory diverges from above, make sure you catch up on the thread because a lot of people are spitballing goofy theories that would already be discarded if they were caught up on existing evidence.

Someone said JFK in Bahamas during a superuser session, that’s very interesting but I didn’t see the supporting evidence?
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:13 PM   #3918
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

What is very unfortunate though is that any good/smart player could have done what Mike postle did and not get caught.

Average 20bb/100

Lower your vpip and keep it reasonable

Intentionally bust when you have the nut flush on the river and your oppenent has a straight flush, don't ****ing check/call moron

Just play how you would reguraly play at these stakes, play tight, play in position, bet/3bet heavy, remember he played alot of 1/3, you have to bet heavier at these stakes.

Any smart player could have easily stayed under the radar, mike postle very well may not be a lone wolf in all of this, there could be other players out there that are not complete morons.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:15 PM   #3919
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Interesting - the PokerGFX software has a hand database.

If Stones really wants to see if there is something fishy, and be totally transparent, they should make the CSV's of all of Mike's games available for the public.

From their website: http://www.videopokertable.net/features.aspx

"Hand Database
All hand information (player actions, cards, chip counts, blinds & antes) stored in a permanent database for post production. Hand data can be exported in CSV format for use by third party systems"
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:24 PM   #3920
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Manner Please View Post
Someone said JFK in Bahamas during a superuser session, that’s very interesting but I didn’t see the supporting evidence?
Location stamps on his tweets. It's in this thread
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:24 PM   #3921
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
What is very unfortunate though is that any good/smart player could have done what Mike postle did and not get caught.

Average 20bb/100

Lower your vpip and keep it reasonable

Intentionally bust when you have the nut flush on the river and your oppenent has a straight flush, don't ****ing check/call moron

Just play how you would reguraly play at these stakes, play tight, play in position, bet/3bet heavy, remember he played alot of 1/3, you have to bet heavier at these stakes.

Any smart player could have easily stayed under the radar, mike postle very well may not be a lone wolf in all of this, there could be other players out there that are not complete morons.
It sounds reasonable but it's really not.

Assuming he's only winning 20 bb/100, they play around 20 hands/hour(very generous) & he has to 50/50 split with an accomplice..they're netting around $6/hour each. I don't think either party is going to be happy with that.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:29 PM   #3922
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by js84 View Post
You're right and you're wrong. The 2019 stats (done by me) and the 2018 stats (done by Alecspade).

There were several streams in which he added-on if another player had significantly more chips than he did. There were also times when he would gamble early, almost as if to get more money on the table. The more money on the table, the bigger the game played, and he could win bigger pots.

I looked at each stream on YouTube, determined his earliest possible stack, and looked for anytime his stack got bigger. If he won a pot to increase his stack, I did nothing. But if his stack increased without a visible pot won, I would increase his buy-in amount on my spreadsheet. Looking back, I wish I had a buy-in amount AND an add-on amount. Either way, I took his total buy-in (with add-ons/rebuys if applicable) and his final chip count, and used that to determine his total win/loss. Sure, I could have missed an add-on here or there, but whenever I was unsure of how he got more money I assumed it was an add-on and not a pot won.

Alecspade used Twitch, which has a !win (or something like that) function that counts how much a player is up or down. So his numbers include a starting stack, a final stack, and a win/loss. But because his method didn't account for add-ons, his numbers don't add up since he relied on the !win function, and not the (final stack) - (total buy-in) = (win/loss) like I did. His method is still very accurate though.

If anything, I think his win total is a few thousand higher than the $253,500 I came up with because I erred high. I also didn't count PLO, mixed games, and sit n gos, as others point out, so his actual win total on stream may be closer to $300k.

So no, even Mike's "they didn't account for rebuys" defense is full of ****.
First of all, I want to thank you and Alecspade for taking the time to add so much substance to the often imprecise allegations.

What is helpful is your careful breakdown of your methods you used to calculate Postle's buy ins wont have been known by Postle or Matusow, so now we know your methods, we can see how false Postle's defence really is.

What is fascinating is that as this case unravels, one realises everything Postle says in his defence is untrue.

I will repeat that, as it is so important, and unremarked on, he lies about EVERYTHING.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:30 PM   #3923
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
then all of a sudden check/call the nut flush on the river when literally only 2 hand combinations beat you, 100% of winning players are at THE VERY LEAST 3betting in that scenerio,
There are players that will check call with a flush on a paired board. What is more damning is that he will only take this line with a flush on a paired board when he is behind. However, when he is ahead he will raise.

The sample size of hands is not huge but within each hand there are multiple decision points. You can see in big pots that he plays each decision point perfectly to maximize his profits vs the exact hands his opponents have. If you didn't know the opponents' cards and observed his play you would note that he plays some decision points well and other decision points poorly. However, with the knowledge of the opponents' cards you see every decision point is correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiiziwiig View Post
if she gets any money, she should donate it to the players, this aint some big corp whistleblower case

even if they get paid back in full, she should donate the money to them
Absolutely not. Quite the opposite actually. If they get money back they should be paying her a cut.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxeth View Post
It only looks easy because mike has an inside man. Private games won’t dry up.
Private games won't dry up but there is going to be a hell of a lot more cheating now. Seeing how Postle got away with this for a year on a live stream viewed by hundreds and thousands of people, it would be close to impossible to bust a well run underground game.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:31 PM   #3924
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by garetjaxor View Post
Interesting - the PokerGFX software has a hand database.

If Stones really wants to see if there is something fishy, and be totally transparent, they should make the CSV's of all of Mike's games available for the public."
Yeah, that's not gonna happen... I have no doubt Stones is furious that this investigation is happening in such a public way (read: here, or Joey's YouTube site), and they will look to clamp down on this asap. I would almost guarantee you all employees are forbidden to speak to the press or post anything about this on social media, or even discuss with friends/family.

I also think we're going to hear some major announcements soon from Stones, as they try to take back control of this investigation, e.g. someone being fired, some initial findings, etc. Their message is going to be: we are finding evidence and taking action, don't worry... Of course, what is released to the public at the end of all of this will likely be a watered down version of what happened, designed to reduce their liability.

But still, this is a marketing disaster for them right now, they want to get out in front of the investigation in a public way, so expect to see something major from them soon.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:32 PM   #3925
Patrick408
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by ekethio View Post
It is probably important not to be biased in these analysis to remain consistent. Claiming he calls river bets in spots where he is effectively bluff catching to avoid suspicion while at the same time arguing a producer had to change graphics to cover up his suspicious 86o shove isn't consistent. If he is a sophisticated enough cheater to call 1k on 3 to a straight and 3 to flush board with top two to avoid suspicion, then in theory he should be sophisticated enough to not make an absurdly vindicating 8 high shove 700 more giving like 10 to 1 to the opponent. There are certainly a very large number of abnormal hands while in isolation might make some sense combined together make a strong case for at the very least a well founded suspicion, but it is still important to not make claims that are inconsistent just to prove a point.
Have you seen the PLO hand that he “somehow” knows that all 4 cards aren’t being read by the RFI? I’ve never seen a player know his cards aren’t being read period, because its IMPOSSIBLE! That, along with numerous videos and stats is the smoking gun. If someone can explain a good reason for his actions knowing real time that all 4 of his cards aren’t being read? I’m all ears!
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