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Old 10-05-2019, 01:32 PM   #3926
tul6700
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
It sounds reasonable but it's really not.

Assuming he's only winning 20 bb/100, they play around 20 hands/hour(very generous) & he has to 50/50 split with an accomplice..they're netting around $6/hour each. I don't think either party is going to be happy with that.
Im curious if anyone can break this down mathematically, let's theoretically assume mike postle did not cheat. What is the probability of a player with a 60%+ vpip, 900bb+/100, 300 hours of play. Im not sure if these numbers are accurate? Regardless, what is the probability of that actually even occuring? Are my numbers off? Or is that his accurate win-rate and vpip?
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:33 PM   #3927
brsavage
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by sirswish6 View Post


thats mark kroon right?

does anyone know these other ppl that seem to know mike?









adam the admin from p5s seems to have known him as well

theres also his fav players on p5:



does anyone know who those could be other than leggy and ho?
I can confirm Mike was friendly online with everyone who played consistently at UB. He was friendly with a lot of the ambassadors and went to the Aruba tournaments. Mike was well liked and considered a solid player. Sad - no doubt in my mind he cheated, evidence is overwhelming. I saw Mike last year I believe playing some of the regional tournaments on the gulf coast at Beau Rivage.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:34 PM   #3928
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
It sounds reasonable but it's really not.

Assuming he's only winning 20 bb/100, they play around 20 hands/hour(very generous) & he has to 50/50 split with an accomplice..they're netting around $6/hour each. I don't think either party is going to be happy with that.
1) Play higher stakes

2) Play tournaments. Are they streaming tournaments anywhere? Nice way to disguise a couple mega cash outs as donkament wins.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:34 PM   #3929
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Does the PTR database still exist somewhere? It would be curious to see if he really was a big online winner pre BF.

(apologies if this has already been asked/answered and I've lost it in the thread)
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:36 PM   #3930
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
There are players that will check call with a flush on a paired board. What is more damning is that he will only take this line with a flush on a paired board when he is behind. However, when he is ahead he will raise.

The sample size of hands is not huge but within each hand there are multiple decision points. You can see in big pots that he plays each decision point perfectly to maximize his profits vs the exact hands his opponents have. If you didn't know the opponents' cards and observed his play you would note that he plays some decision points well and other decision points poorly. However, with the knowledge of the opponents' cards you see every decision point is correct.



Absolutely not. Quite the opposite actually. If they get money back they should be paying her a cut.



Private games won't dry up but there is going to be a hell of a lot more cheating now. Seeing how Postle got away with this for a year on a live stream viewed by hundreds and thousands of people, it would be close to impossible to bust a well run underground game.
Private Games aren’t streamed or recorded therefore nobody has access to players hole cards during or after a hand. Cards are shuffled the same way/ order as in a casino and there’s no sunglasses or earbuds allowed. At least in the games I’ve played in.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:38 PM   #3931
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by matt hirschhorn View Post
Im curious if anyone can break this down mathematically, let's theoretically assume mike postle did not cheat. What is the probability of a player with a 60%+ vpip, 900bb+/100, 300 hours of play. Im not sure if these numbers are accurate? Regardless, what is the probability of that actually even occuring? Are my numbers off? Or is that his accurate win-rate and vpip?
Someone already calculated this. If you are extraordinarily conservative giving Mike a ton of credit, he's at about 20 standard deviations above mean. Which is so lol it breaks standard calculations because zscores typically don't go out that far. But it computes to fractions of 1 in all atoms of universe.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:38 PM   #3932
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

If anyone wants to make new or an updated faq please post it, flag it, and myself or one of the NVG mods can update the op.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:39 PM   #3933
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by bizkit View Post
It sounds reasonable but it's really not.

Assuming he's only winning 20 bb/100, they play around 20 hands/hour(very generous) & he has to 50/50 split with an accomplice..they're netting around $6/hour each. I don't think either party is going to be happy with that.

yea when you cheat you have to go big cause the risk/reward is not worth it. Who wants to go to jail for a few bucks. Also he couldnt do this at the highest stakes cause he would have been outed quickly.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:40 PM   #3934
HarryKane09
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Grind On My Mind View Post
Want to see mike get slapped in the face by one of his river victims?

Go to 01:52:30

https://youtu.be/P4KS_TixXx0
Doing great work here.

Well done Grind on the Mind!

Interestingly enough I think the woman who slaps him is 'PokerBee' on twitter - someone who defended him and shared that her daughter is friends with Postles daughter and that she has had Postle in her house

https://youtu.be/P4KS_TixXx0?t=6750
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:41 PM   #3935
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

[QUOTE=Dream Crusher;55484199]There are players that will check call with a flush on a paired board.

Not a player that has a vpip of 60%+ at 1/3 , a player playing that loose at those stakes is not a good player. A player that plays 1/3 that loose is very likely a fish, that fish is not just going to call there.

This is my point, the way he plays does not add up.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:41 PM   #3936
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Is the poker room at Stones Gambling Hall still open?

Because it should be closed until this whole mess is sorted.

No poker at all should be allowed as it would seem that some employees were involved with Mike Postle.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:41 PM   #3937
bizkit
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PraguePoker View Post
1) Play higher stakes

2) Play tournaments. Are they streaming tournaments anywhere? Nice way to disguise a couple mega cash outs as donkament wins.
Assuming he has a partner telling him what the cards are in real time from the stream he can't really move up or play tournaments right? He's limited to whatever they decide to stream.

.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:43 PM   #3938
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxeth View Post
Private Games aren’t streamed or recorded therefore nobody has access to players hole cards during or after a hand. Cards are shuffled the same way/ order as in a casino and there’s no sunglasses or earbuds allowed. At least in the games I’ve played in.
Sunglasses and earbuds are not necessary. Postle had neither. The person running the game sets the rules. Obviously they would have to pony up some money for the RFID technology. Unless it's a lot more expensive than I think, it seems like it would pay for itself very quickly.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:46 PM   #3939
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

NEW FINDING:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswNmIQvI0o&t=25217s

7 hours of footage of mike cheating playing a $550 sit n go tournament at Stones is it a coincidence HE WON FIRST PLACE Somebody else needs to look into this! ALOT OF SHADY **** GOING ON HERE IN THIS SESSION. We all thought it was just cash games...
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:47 PM   #3940
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by peckx063 View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiXGr92uQGU&t=265m20s

This hand is my favorite one. Watch Postle on the turn. He makes top two and the preflop three-bettor bets into him for the 2nd time. Dream spot to get value from AA/KK, but not for Postle! He has his palms up for the sigh call before he even sees the sizing.
FWIW it's sort of a level 1 old live pro move to pretend you're disappointed in spots like these to encourage more betting. Ive seen this from several people when they're really strong. Could be totally sincere for sure tho.

Also agree with Masq, and assumed the river was a good enough card to give him the excuse to bail. I think the hand featured in Doug's vid where Mike throws his hands up is a less ambiguous example of him doing something physical because he knows something. Appreciate the clip, thanks.

There is too much damning evidence already. The next phase of all of this is going to be interesting
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:48 PM   #3941
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Love_the_game View Post
yea when you cheat you have to go big cause the risk/reward is not worth it. Who wants to go to jail for a few bucks. Also he couldnt do this at the highest stakes cause he would have been outed quickly.
Plus, I think he would beat the game straight up for better than this $6/hour rate. He's not as bad a player as people make him out to be on this thread especially compared to a good majority of his competition in the game.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:49 PM   #3942
HarryKane09
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Grind On My Mind View Post
This hand is absolutely rediculous considering its a bomb pot. Noone in there right mind makes this move next to act on a flop like this. Its crazy. Did you guys see this one? By the way mike loses this hand but it doesnt matter and is not the point. Watch

https://youtu.be/PR6eMJZ3STk

40:40

Mike goes to addon chips at the 50 minute mark.
Link to time of the hand that Grind found - https://youtu.be/PR6eMJZ3STk?t=2470

Another amazing spot.

The bomb pots are the most damming of any IMO. He always seems to play these hands perfect when ranges just aren't a thing. Any two cards galore.

The insane river open jam bluff with 67o v K2cc and AQcc on T53ccxJx3x was also a bomb pot.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:54 PM   #3943
PLIKITYPLAK
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by brsavage View Post
I can confirm Mike was friendly online with everyone who played consistently at UB. He was friendly with a lot of the ambassadors and went to the Aruba tournaments. Mike was well liked and considered a solid player. Sad - no doubt in my mind he cheated, evidence is overwhelming. I saw Mike last year I believe playing some of the regional tournaments on the gulf coast at Beau Rivage.
Not all bad guys are mean. John Wayne Gacy was a beloved member of his community.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:55 PM   #3944
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PraguePoker View Post
1) Play higher stakes

2) Play tournaments. Are they streaming tournaments anywhere? Nice way to disguise a couple mega cash outs as donkament wins.
They generally only stream the final tables, or in the case of WSOP they have 1 or 2 feature tables. The vast majority of the play at a tournament is with non-RFID cards at a regular table, so no way to cheat with these methods.

If he made the final table, he'd have a massive advantage, but he'd have to play on his own until the final table, and how often does even a great player make the final table of a tournament with several hundred entries?
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:56 PM   #3945
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Has Kasey Lyn Mills been seen in the past week, because some of the footage of her commentary is shockingly embarrassing?

She has to be a good reason why no one ever watched their streams.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:57 PM   #3946
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by PLIKITYPLAK View Post
Not all bad guys are mean. John Wayne Gacy was a beloved member of his community.
So was Gus Fring.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:58 PM   #3947
Xenicide
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PraguePoker View Post
1) Play higher stakes

2) Play tournaments. Are they streaming tournaments anywhere? Nice way to disguise a couple mega cash outs as donkament wins.
7 hours of mike cheating and winning FIRST PLACE in a $550 SNG Tournament

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswNmIQvI0o&t=25217s
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:59 PM   #3948
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenicide View Post
NEW FINDING:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswNmIQvI0o&t=25217s

7 hours of footage of mike cheating playing a $550 sit n go tournament at Stones is it a coincidence HE WON FIRST PLACE Somebody else needs to look into this! ALOT OF SHADY **** GOING ON HERE IN THIS SESSION. We all thought it was just cash games...
not sure about this being a cheating episode, at least once once it goes heads up, as you can see Justin wandering around, fixing the rope/poles, taking photos of each player etc
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:02 PM   #3949
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Nut flush on a paired board decides to just call vs a fun player even after flop goes check check. A pro simply always rip it in here. It such an obvious +EV shove that not shoving cannot be done without knowing the holdings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg34...utu.be&t=10639

In case link doesnt work its at 2:57:15

--------------

Here is The Fun part in another spot where the board is paired and facing a ****ing OVERBET he finds it logical to massivly raise.

https://youtu.be/Gaek0o6eYTo?t=4387

- 1:13:19

----------------------------------------------


So he only calls vs super small block bet with the nut flush in the first hand and ****ing and raises to an OVERBET in the second. 100% cheating, no i mean 100000% he is cheating.

Sorry if its been linked before. I just connected the two hands
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:02 PM   #3950
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

This is from the PLO stream with the RFID error that was found last night.

Listen to what Postle says just as the feed is about to cut

https://youtu.be/mBTJkgd7YsQ?t=17001
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