Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Has it occurred to you people only table the same number of sets if they call to set mine the same percentage? A nit's range is far more heavily weighted towards setmining than a TAG or LAG or LP. These other guys are calling raises with hands like Q9s, T9o, 85s, etc...they are simply not as pocket pair heavy as you. It makes sense you show up with more sets than they would. Please tell me you thought of this.
I'm pretty sure this is wrong?
The fact that others are calling raises with Q9s/etc. doesn't mean they're also not calling with pocket pairs to setmine (right?). So at showdown, they'll showdown just as many sets as I or any other nit will, all things being equal. And, since all things aren't actually equal (in that I fold small pairs in EP, plus typically don't call raises first in unless I'm very convinced it's going multiway), it should be the case that I show up with far less tabled sets (and if you add to that Gil's theory that me and other nits don't get paid off as much, then I should actually have an even smaller percentage of tabled sets on top of that).
The one thing I did consider is that there's a chance sets are played differently postflop which will lead to some getting to showdown more than others. The other consideration is that some players may attempt to setmine the turn/river (lol), but again that means that I should be showing up with far less tabled sets than they do.
Fairly convinced it's just lol sample size. Although the data did hint (I think) at some things I have been concerned about, such as the devastating affect of losing with a set, which happens a decent percentage of the time (and isn't factored in enough when thinking of setmining preflop, imo).
ETA: Or are you suggesting that because I'm not calling raises with Q9s/etc. that I'm not going to showdown a lot of hands against tabled sets? I could perhaps see that being the case at a table with like 9 guys like me and one loose guy, but at tables with one guy like me and 9 loose guys I doubt it's making any difference (as the loose guys will table sets against one another's Q9s/etc.). Although, I guess their set tabling will also be slightly smaller since I'll likely be figuring out there sets a lot more than others (ha, maybe?), so when they make a set against me I guess it's less likely to get to showdown? Still not convinced it makes a huge difference, but it is something I guess. ETA: Just looked at my data: of the 26 tabled sets that I considered ~profitable setmining spots, I paid off Villain in one instance, and in another instance I got to the river chasing a draw (no money went in on river); so yeah, I guess with me in the hand your chances of tabling a set are less, but I'm only one of 9 opponents at the table.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-05-2018 at 12:14 PM.