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Old 05-29-2018, 07:10 PM   #21551
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
As an infrequent poster in this thread, I do know the general rule of thumb espoused is that 10bbs+ an hour is "crushing" but I was hoping for a little more nuance. Specifically if (insert your favorite pro/best player) played 1/2 exclusively and only Friday and Saturday nights in a $400 capped game with most stacks between $250 and $300 , what do you think his long-term winrate would be?

I feel like in this thread people just leave it at 10 BB's + an hour is crushing without examining what is truly possible. I'll confess that I'm currently on a 110-hour heater after a 80 hour slight downswing period and probably have some irrational euphoria thinking that for a pro (who is obviously ridiculously better than I) 25bbs an hour would be possible. Thoughts??

5/6 years ago, my 5/5 (700) game had two young crushers in it, who have both moved on to be two of the big winners in the nosebleed PLO that runs....one of them I believe is a truly world class player and the other is less talented at the very highest level but played 5/5 like it was a video game and was just a relentless machine. they were both beating that game in the $75 ph region. I'm sure people this talented could beat a 1/2 game for more than that if they could stay focused
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Old 05-29-2018, 07:16 PM   #21552
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ha, don't make me dig up my arguments from a few months ago in this thread that even dared questioned what is considered crushing and attainable, especially at the lowest limit rake traps. Don't think (???) anyone has ever even posted a winrate much north of 10bb+ over any non-trivial sample size at the lowest stakes in this thread (maybe Squiddy, but even that was mostly at a level above the rake trap stakes).

GcluelesswinratenoobG

It's an unlosable argument for you, just like I'm certain somebody can say 'it's impossible to average .325 at AA baseball over a 10 year period - PROVE IT, SHOW ME SOMEBODY WHO"S DONE IT!!!! when of course, the players capable of that are playing AAA and Major Leagues

unless you can find somebody talented and driven at poker who is stuck in a market where he has no chance of finding a bigger/better game, we'll never find that person
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Old 05-29-2018, 09:42 PM   #21553
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Probably mentioned somewhere in this 861 page thread but let's talk about this again - biggest 1/3 downswing and worst 1/3 session! Go!

Biggest downswing for me is ~1500 over 400 hours of 1/3. Pretty close to it now and I'm sure I'm due for one that's double that before I hit 1k hours at this limit. Worst 1/3 session is -700. My main game is 300 max although I've played maybe 100 hours of 500 max.
4110 hrs 1/3 $25.08/hr

biggest 1/3 downswing $2755

Worst session $1000 (I now play with 2 BI limit/has worked great)
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Old 05-29-2018, 09:47 PM   #21554
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Jesus crsseyed, don't you have access to bigger games?

what is the buy in for your 1/3?
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Old 05-29-2018, 09:54 PM   #21555
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Jesus crsseyed, don't you have access to bigger games?

what is the buy in for your 1/3?
Short answer: no. Nearest 2/5 is 2 hrs away. 1/3 buy in limit for years was 300, now (in last ~year) is 300 or 1/2 of biggest stack at table whichever is greater
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Old 05-29-2018, 11:32 PM   #21556
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Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
Short answer: no. Nearest 2/5 is 2 hrs away. 1/3 buy in limit for years was 300, now (in last ~year) is 300 or 1/2 of biggest stack at table whichever is greater
This sounds like a really good game! I'm guessing it plays pretty deep and with big raises preflop going multiway?

V nice winrate
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:26 AM   #21557
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@ MikeStarr

Thanks for posting some giraffes! Very impressive, good job!

The only thing I will say regarding sample size: I can pull a 1013:35 hour stretch sample size from my 1/3 NL results that shows me at 12.79 bb/hr, but my overall rate after all 3942:20 hours is a mere 6.91 bb/hr.

Gittakesa*long*timeforthedusttoreallysettle,imoG
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:32 AM   #21558
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Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
4110 hrs 1/3 $25.08/hr

biggest 1/3 downswing $2755

Worst session $1000 (I now play with 2 BI limit/has worked great)
Whooo, might be the second biggest low stakes hours results behind Angrist in this thread, nice job!

I have fairly similar ballpark results (about ~70 hours and ~$4/hr behind you, also very similar biggest downswing / worst session).

Has your giraffe maintained a steady constant winrate over that stretch or do you find it has changed much over the years? In my case, I've found my first 2000 hours went 2x as good as my second 2000 hours, although my game conditions have changed.

Any thoughts on shortstack versus deepstack? The more I play, the more I think deepstack is pretty overrated regarding results (but I also suck at deepstack, so lol).

Ggiraffe?G
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:33 AM   #21559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
@ MikeStarr

Thanks for posting some giraffes! Very impressive, good job!

The only thing I will say regarding sample size: I can pull a 1013:35 hour stretch sample size from my 1/3 NL results that shows me at 12.79 bb/hr, but my overall rate after all 3942:20 hours is a mere 6.91 bb/hr.

Gittakesa*long*timeforthedusttoreallysettle,imoG
Sure, any of us could cherry pick a really good or really bad segment and make the stats say what we want them to say if we wanted to lie to ourselves. If anyone wants to laugh off my graph that's their right.

However, taken in context with my results from 3000+ hours in 2/5 games with pretty good results, I'm confidant that my 1/2 results are sustainable long term. At least in the games Ive played in. I probably will play some more 1/2 in the coming months because the 2/5 games are really drying up big time right now in my room and I hate driving a long way to the other games.
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Old 05-30-2018, 08:29 PM   #21560
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Any thoughts on shortstack versus deepstack? The more I play, the more I think deepstack is pretty overrated regarding results (but I also suck at deepstack, so lol).

Ggiraffe?G
Why do you think playing deep is overrated?

Deep stack is way better if you know how to play post-flop, because most of your opponents do not adjust properly from playing 100BB to 300BB to 500BB. They still see hand strengths pretty much the same. You'd be surprised how often people basically just give away their stacks when they're deep because they don't realize, for instance, that AA is not really a GII post-flop hand 300BB deep.

Rake is also relatively nonexistent in very large pots. I know they don't rake pre where you play but they do here, which is a big deterrent towards playing an aggressive shortstacking game (especially at 1/2, but to a lesser extent at 2/5).

I guess I can see playing short if you're at a new table or venue and want some time to adjust to your opponents, or if you're feeling outmatched, but as soon as you feel comfortable you should buy in for the max and top off constantly. When you finally hit that nut straight over second nut straight or w/e, you really want to have as much money as possible. There have been a few times I lost a big hand, didn't have time to reload before next cards were dealt, make a nutted hand, and double up for like 1/3 to 1/2 what I could have if I had topped up immediately. And that feeling just sucks.

Of course limp/shoving pre-flop doesn't really work deep-stack so you would have to adjust your strategy.
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Old 05-30-2018, 10:26 PM   #21561
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post

Has your giraffe maintained a steady constant winrate over that stretch or do you find it has changed much over the years? In my case, I've found my first 2000 hours went 2x as good as my second 2000 hours, although my game conditions have changed.

Any thoughts on shortstack versus deepstack? The more I play, the more I think deepstack is pretty overrated regarding results (but I also suck at deepstack, so lol).

Ggiraffe?G
Kinda similar to you:
First 2605 hrs $29.42/hr
Last 1512 hrs $16.03/hr

Yeah/game conditions have changed, I think that's part of it. For me, honestly, I tried alot of new things and in retrospect they were bad for my game and lost my mojo/really think I have it back now and I feel I can return to my best winrate from here on out.

IMHO shortstack play is the worst anyone can try. But in my experience deepstack poker @ LLSNL is WAY overrated. Where I play you almost never see any idiot getting it in 200-300BB deep without a great hand/great odds. It just doesn't happen. It's hard to say but I probably see a 400BB+ allin hand at my table (200BB/player) maybe once every 40 hours. Almost all the consistent $ made in Low limit poker is 20-130BB(total) pots.
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Old 05-31-2018, 04:02 AM   #21562
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Biggest downswing is around $40K at $10/20 and $5/10.

Slowed me down for a pretty long time but didn't prevent me from eventually playing higher.
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Old 05-31-2018, 05:48 AM   #21563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ha, don't make me dig up my arguments from a few months ago in this thread that even dared questioned what is considered crushing and attainable, especially at the lowest limit rake traps. Don't think (???) anyone has ever even posted a winrate much north of 10bb+ over any non-trivial sample size at the lowest stakes in this thread (maybe Squiddy, but even that was mostly at a level above the rake trap stakes).

GcluelesswinratenoobG
rude :[

(I also have 1k+ sample of 20bb/hour at 1/2 I've posted like half a dozen times, as GG well knows, but I guess it's not a big enough sample)

Look, almost nobody good enough to have those results are likely to keep playing 1/2 for 3k hours, that doesn't mean it can't be done. You keep asking for evidence that no one would have any incentive to create, then use the lack of such evidence as proof of your position. Doesn't work that way.

(I also knew 3 other players with 20+bb/hour sample each at 1-2k hour sample, and were all in a strat group together, so, yeah maybe we just all run hot, but combined we have a sick sample at very similar winratess over 3-5 year span (we all played higher on top of playing 1/2), so, to me, that's about as close as it gets).

Last edited by Sol Reader; 05-31-2018 at 05:57 AM.
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Old 05-31-2018, 05:54 AM   #21564
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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Biggest downswing is around $40K at $10/20 and $5/10.

Slowed me down for a pretty long time but didn't prevent me from eventually playing higher.
I have to admit you are an animal when you can handle losing that kind of money and still keep going and keep going without losing your shyt. Impressive for sure.
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Old 05-31-2018, 05:56 AM   #21565
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
It's an unlosable argument for you, just like I'm certain somebody can say 'it's impossible to average .325 at AA baseball over a 10 year period - PROVE IT, SHOW ME SOMEBODY WHO"S DONE IT!!!! when of course, the players capable of that are playing AAA and Major Leagues

unless you can find somebody talented and driven at poker who is stuck in a market where he has no chance of finding a bigger/better game, we'll never find that person
Yup, pretty much this, and that is the main reason GG is grasping after that argument consistently in this debate. +1
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Old 05-31-2018, 06:02 AM   #21566
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I also want to make it clear though we disagree on a lot of poker related topics, GG I have no will will towards you, so I keep this disagreement purely on a poker level.

But like, it's no surprise you feel this way. You think the correct way to play poker is this ultra nitty style. In your mind, a style that is much looser than yours is not optimal, or losing. Now obviously I don't agree with that assessment, but that's a different topic right? But anyway, assuming that we adopted the view that the highest EV way of playing poker is your nitty style, then yeah, absolutely it's not possible to make 10+bb/hour consistently, because it's not possible to win that much with that nitty style.

In order for you to accept that one can have a high EV, you must first believe that it's possible to win more with a style much looser than yours. Those two come hand in hand, because no matter how disciplined you play, you just cannot win 20bb/hour playing as tight as you do preflop, at least in the current climate.

(Obv in like 2009 games or like really crazy drunk deep straddle games it's possible, but not over a large sample in normal games)
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Old 05-31-2018, 09:00 AM   #21567
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Speaking of cherry picking results....

S. Florida is very seasonal. I dont think people appreciate how much of a big deal that is. The games are super soft during snowbord season but super tough (nitty reg filled) during off season.

If I split my win rate into snowbird season (5 months of Nov-March) and off season (7 months of Apr-Oct), my win rate is 56% higher during snowbird season. This is over 3 years now and its pretty steady each year

If I only played during snowbird season, I would look like an absolute killer. If I was a single young pro, I would play here during snowbird season and go up north to Maryland or a couple other places the rest of the year and may be able to sustain $60+hr at 2/5.
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:35 AM   #21568
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Speaking of cherry picking results....

S. Florida is very seasonal. I dont think people appreciate how much of a big deal that is. The games are super soft during snowbord season but super tough (nitty reg filled) during off season.

If I split my win rate into snowbird season (5 months of Nov-March) and off season (7 months of Apr-Oct), my win rate is 56% higher during snowbird season. This is over 3 years now and its pretty steady each year

If I only played during snowbird season, I would look like an absolute killer. If I was a single young pro, I would play here during snowbird season and go up north to Maryland or a couple other places the rest of the year and may be able to sustain $60+hr at 2/5.
being one of those snowbirds who lingers on occasion
I can confirm this in the northern Fl locations as well.


?????? for you guys
Do you count HH promos, cracked aces promos , random seat draws and any other crazy give away they come up with in your hourly ??????

since the explosion of HH promo's my hourly has dropped big time
but if I add in all the promos I have collected I'm crushing over 40BB per hour
and if I include the BB jackpots even higher
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:00 PM   #21569
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I generally agree with GG about a lot of things here, but the large sample + 10bb/hr discussion is really un-winnable for many of the reasons already discussed to death. Sol makes some really good points about it.

HH promos are an interesting discussion for WR.

The big $100k score for a BBJ really shouldn't be included in your WR IMO. Even though you're paying that drop money all the time. Too hard to reach a "long run".

But HH stuff where they're giving away $100 here and $200 there and you can reasonably expect to get one every 50 hours or whatever could be reasonable to just include in your WR. Again, you're paying the drop for it every hand. I don't play in rooms that have them very often, but I *THINK* I just included the small $100 scores in my session results with a note. If I was playing there more often I think I'd record them as a separate game so I could filter them in and out. Which seems like the most reasonable way to do it.

Did they change the rake to pay for the HH? We often have discussions about how much the rake impacts WR, and this would be a really easy comparison under what should be almost identical conditions otherwise. How much did each change?

Overall I think the HH stuff is good for us as it brings more gambly players into the poker room, and it can get players into spots they're bad at with deep stacks. Also makes players stick around and draw with ****ty hands, especially preflop. Which we can exploit.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:17 PM   #21570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Speaking of cherry picking results....

S. Florida is very seasonal. I dont think people appreciate how much of a big deal that is. The games are super soft during snowbord season but super tough (nitty reg filled) during off season.

If I split my win rate into snowbird season (5 months of Nov-March) and off season (7 months of Apr-Oct), my win rate is 56% higher during snowbird season. This is over 3 years now and its pretty steady each year

If I only played during snowbird season, I would look like an absolute killer. If I was a single young pro, I would play here during snowbird season and go up north to Maryland or a couple other places the rest of the year and may be able to sustain $60+hr at 2/5.
If you stopped using the word "tough" i would +1 everything you say on this subject.

It really is night and day...and i agree that if i were a pro I'd play the seasons.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:55 PM   #21571
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I have to admit you are an animal when you can handle losing that kind of money and still keep going and keep going without losing your shyt. Impressive for sure.
Trust me I've "lost my shyt" plenty of times from losing, but I've been through a lot and now I'm just dead inside so I handle losses much better.

I think it's an advantage that I'm able to not care about money while playing.

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Old 05-31-2018, 12:57 PM   #21572
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Why do you think playing deep is overrated?

Deep stack is way better if you know how to play post-flop, because most of your opponents do not adjust properly from playing 100BB to 300BB to 500BB. They still see hand strengths pretty much the same. You'd be surprised how often people basically just give away their stacks when they're deep because they don't realize, for instance, that AA is not really a GII post-flop hand 300BB deep.

Rake is also relatively nonexistent in very large pots. I know they don't rake pre where you play but they do here, which is a big deterrent towards playing an aggressive shortstacking game (especially at 1/2, but to a lesser extent at 2/5).

I guess I can see playing short if you're at a new table or venue and want some time to adjust to your opponents, or if you're feeling outmatched, but as soon as you feel comfortable you should buy in for the max and top off constantly. When you finally hit that nut straight over second nut straight or w/e, you really want to have as much money as possible. There have been a few times I lost a big hand, didn't have time to reload before next cards were dealt, make a nutted hand, and double up for like 1/3 to 1/2 what I could have if I had topped up immediately. And that feeling just sucks.

Of course limp/shoving pre-flop doesn't really work deep-stack so you would have to adjust your strategy.
Yeah, I probably shouldn't have said "deepstack is overrated" and more perhaps went with "doing a good shortstack strategy is underrated". And if you're a solid deepstack player, then the sky is likely the limit.

FWIW, I used to auto-top up to 100bbs after every hand, for many of the reasons you stated. I was especially concerned about missing value in the nut-over-~second-nut cases; M tried to convince me long ago that these cases don't occur enough for us to be altering our whole strategy (i.e. such as having a very solid grasp on a shortstack strategy but sacrificing it for a not-as-solid grasp on a deeperstack strategy just for these once-in-a-blue-moon cases), and in the end I now believe he was correct. Also, the game has become much less payoffy postflop, so much less reason to sit deep. I mean, if you're playing in a game where people are handing people 300bb stacks with AA or stacking off with the understraight this deep, then fine; but that doesn't happen any more, at least in my game (so I really disagree that opponents are treating hand values the same 100bb vs 300bb vs 500bb, they absolutely are not, imo).

The point regarding rake is a very good one; one of the big downsides to playing shortstacked is the rake makes up such a huge percentage of your pots. But mostly you have to avoid the small pots altogether and just concentrate on the all-in pots (where even shortstacked the rake can be outrun at a decent clip if the all-ins aren't microstacked).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 05-31-2018, 01:05 PM   #21573
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed View Post
Kinda similar to you:
First 2605 hrs $29.42/hr
Last 1512 hrs $16.03/hr

Yeah/game conditions have changed, I think that's part of it. For me, honestly, I tried alot of new things and in retrospect they were bad for my game and lost my mojo/really think I have it back now and I feel I can return to my best winrate from here on out.

IMHO shortstack play is the worst anyone can try. But in my experience deepstack poker @ LLSNL is WAY overrated. Where I play you almost never see any idiot getting it in 200-300BB deep without a great hand/great odds. It just doesn't happen. It's hard to say but I probably see a 400BB+ allin hand at my table (200BB/player) maybe once every 40 hours. Almost all the consistent $ made in Low limit poker is 20-130BB(total) pots.
If all the consistent money is made in 20-130bb total pots (which I totally agree with, FWIW, as well as your comments regarding how rarely big stacks actually go in), then why would shorstacking (ex. I sit with 66bbs) be "the worst" considering it makes for the top end of the range of pots you admit are being won?

It's funny how similar your rates / thoughts are with mine, with the only other exception being I have a very bleak outlook on my winrate moving forward (but that fits in line with my personality).

Ggoodluckonthenext4000hours,imoG
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Old 05-31-2018, 01:11 PM   #21574
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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
rude :[

(I also have 1k+ sample of 20bb/hour at 1/2 I've posted like half a dozen times, as GG well knows, but I guess it's not a big enough sample)
Ha, didn't mean to ignore you Sol! My bad, but my memory sucks.

I'm not sure I knew you had the crushing of a winrate for that many of hours? Or perhaps was it in a bigger BI game (i.e. I'm guessing a 100bb BI game doesn't play nearly the same as an unlimited BI game)?

I kinda wish we had a thread that simply collected winrates from everyone who wanted to contribute them, sorted by steaks / BI. It's pretty much impossible to glean that type of information from this thread as it's too large.

Gnotignoring,didn'tremember,mybadG
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Old 05-31-2018, 01:18 PM   #21575
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GG your game conditions sound awful.

It's rare to see someone stacking off AA for 300bb postflop, but I see plenty of 100-200bb stack offs with draws and other garbage. (And 500bb preflop stack offs in PLO, wheeeee!) And then the nut/2nd nut situations become even more valuable. It's really not that all opponents are completely and totally depth blind. No one is claiming that. But *some* are. And many adjust poorly, even though they're *trying* to adjust. Hell, some become TOO TIGHT instead.

Shortstacking is a problem because you drop out of that sweet spot range too quickly. Call one preflop bet and miss? Your 66bbs becomes 50 or 40 and you're back in the rake trap you hate. It also impacts your ability to leverage a threat of a larger bet. That limits your options, kills your FE in some spots and your opponent's IO in others. A lot of those 20-130bb pots are pushed to someone that just *bet* 100bb OTT/R and got a fold.

So you're losing the ability to make a giant hand that'll move your 500 hour sample a whole BB on it's own, removing your flexibility and options postflop (negating your skill advantage) and also hurting the meta game environment that attracts gambly fish by short stacking.
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