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Old 07-13-2018, 09:48 AM   #21901
OvertlySexual
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
The shorter my sessions the higher my hourly due I suspect to declining concentration ability over time. After 8ish hours I notice a drop and after 10 to 12 a very noticeable drop.

You may have a different problem as you aren't playing that much. Maybe it takes you some time to get warmed up, back into the poker mindset. I've found like after I've been sick for a week and then start playing poker again I'm overly nervous the first hour or so and not on my A game.

There maybe selection bias in play here, because some people will stick longer if they re losing.
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Old 07-13-2018, 08:39 PM   #21902
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
There maybe selection bias in play here, because some people will stick longer if they re losing.
That's true and I used to do that but past ~5 months I've been deciding number of hours beforehand and just play that. I make occasional exceptions but it's based on how good the game is not whether I'm stuck. Like I figure I'm on my A game for about 8 hours then B game hours 8 to 10 then C game hours 10+. If the game is good enough though my B or even C game can still be very profitable
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Old 07-13-2018, 08:46 PM   #21903
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
Strange. I ve explorted plenty of times to excel and never had that issue. I also checked issue no 2 with cash sessions and it held the position.


Are you on android? IOS here.
android indeed RIP

issue number two turned what should have been a 30-45minute task into one that took me nearly 3 hours. Its only once a year... but im a lazy POS ok
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Old 07-14-2018, 08:36 AM   #21904
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's the conventional wisdom regarding high-hand prizes and including them in your win-rate?

At first I figured this was just lucky "gravy" and left it out. I play in a room with hourly prizes and rarely more than 3 tables running. So it's not really hard to win one. Over the last couple months, playing about 10 hours per week, I've scooped maybe half a dozen of these prizes. So it's not really negligible "gravy" anymore. It's real money.
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Old 07-14-2018, 08:42 AM   #21905
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There hasn't really been a conclusion on that topic. Many feel you should include it since your paying for the promotions via jackpot drop.

Personally, I have not included it because I feel it conflates my "true" winrate. I see it as more of a "bonus", similar to the $1/hour comps you get, but I couldn't fault anybody who chooses to include it.

Even if it's a signifcant portion of the jackpot drop, it would still act more as rakeback, not winrate, imo. I never played with rakeback tho so IDK if people considered that part of their WR.

I also never subtract tips from my WR because I consider it an inherent part of playing (similar to rake)
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Old 07-14-2018, 08:54 AM   #21906
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
What's the conventional wisdom regarding high-hand prizes and including them in your win-rate?

At first I figured this was just lucky "gravy" and left it out. I play in a room with hourly prizes and rarely more than 3 tables running. So it's not really hard to win one. Over the last couple months, playing about 10 hours per week, I've scooped maybe half a dozen of these prizes. So it's not really negligible "gravy" anymore. It's real money.
If you play in a room that takes $2 per hand for the jackpot and you never hit a high hand, your win rate is obviously going to be lower than a guy who plays in a room with no jackpot drop at all. If you win 2 pots per hour, hes got a $4/hr advantage on you.

If you hit your fair share of high hands or whatever bonuses your room pays, you should just about break even with the jackpot drop over the long term, so I include it. I dont see why you wouldnt. Actually the guy with no jackpot drop still has an advantage because most people give large tips (10%?) when they hit a high hand.

Your profit might be higher one month if you hit a couple jackpots and lower in months where you dont hit any, but long term it about the same as if there was no high hand drop at all so if you want a fair comparison to other players, I would include it.

Another subject is hourly comps or rakeback if you want to call it that. I play in the nittiest room on earth. My win rate is substantially higher in any other room in the area, but they pay $4.32/hr in comps (which I dont include in win rate), but makes a big difference in total profit.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 07-14-2018 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 07-14-2018, 09:23 AM   #21907
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Actually the guy with no jackpot drop still has an advantage because most people give large tips (10%?) when they hit a high hand.
$15 on $300?

Kosher?
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Old 07-14-2018, 09:51 AM   #21908
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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
$15 on $300?

Kosher?
That's fine. Some give more. Some give less. I'm a fixture in my room so I give a bit more, especially to dealers I like and run their games well. In a random room where I'm passing thru town I would probably give 5%.
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Old 07-14-2018, 04:16 PM   #21909
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would factor in jackpots and high hands since you are paying for them but not comps unless you can turn the comps into cash. If you're playing long sessions usually and eating multiple casino meals a day the comps probably don't even cover them depending on where you play.
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Old 07-14-2018, 05:45 PM   #21910
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I can turn my comps into cash (about 95 cents on the dollar) but I still dont count that in my win rate.
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Old 07-14-2018, 05:59 PM   #21911
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
What's the conventional wisdom regarding high-hand prizes and including them in your win-rate?

At first I figured this was just lucky "gravy" and left it out. I play in a room with hourly prizes and rarely more than 3 tables running. So it's not really hard to win one. Over the last couple months, playing about 10 hours per week, I've scooped maybe half a dozen of these prizes. So it's not really negligible "gravy" anymore. It's real money.
You can include them but I would put them in a separate category so you can filter them out in case you're running hot with promos. Poker Babkroll Tracker has a Jackpot/Bonus category that is easy to filter out. If you win a big BBJ I definitely would not count that in your winrate because of how much it skews the results but stuff you can expect to win reasonably often like high hands are fine. Though I would still separate them.

Personally I haven't won a promo HH or anything since February so it makes literally no difference on my winrate.
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Old 07-14-2018, 06:04 PM   #21912
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I can turn my comps into cash (about 95 cents on the dollar) but I still dont count that in my win rate.
How do you do this? I haven't figured out a good way to make use of comps at the Hard Rock. Can't use the comps on slots or other games. Have to use them on food, drink, services, or massively overpriced swag like Oakleys. Guess I could buy and sell Oakleys but it's probably like 40 cents on the dollar return.

Also they expire every 60 days which is super annoying. I've let over 1k in comps just disappear because there's nothing I want to buy. And for a while I wasnt aware they expired.
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Old 07-14-2018, 06:12 PM   #21913
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Alcohol.
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Old 07-14-2018, 06:49 PM   #21914
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I do not add my promo$ to my winrate. I do however track it on the notes app of my phone.
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Old 07-14-2018, 06:55 PM   #21915
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
How do you do this? I haven't figured out a good way to make use of comps at the Hard Rock. Can't use the comps on slots or other games. Have to use them on food, drink, services, or massively overpriced swag like Oakleys. Guess I could buy and sell Oakleys but it's probably like 40 cents on the dollar return.

Also they expire every 60 days which is super annoying. I've let over 1k in comps just disappear because there's nothing I want to buy. And for a while I wasnt aware they expired.
At the Isle you can use your points to play the slot machines, roulette machine and craps machine. Im sure you can easily figure out how to turn the points into cash at about 95% using the roulette machine. I think the exact number is 94%. I wish you could play the BlackJack machines with points but you cant for some reason.

You can also play tournaments at dollar for dollar if you want.

I dont know if this is available in Tampa but there's a Seminole convenience store near The Hard Rock in Hollywood and you can use your points to buy anything in there including gas.
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Old 07-14-2018, 07:42 PM   #21916
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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At the Isle you can use your points to play the slot machines, roulette machine and craps machine. Im sure you can easily figure out how to turn the points into cash at about 95% using the roulette machine. I think the exact number is 94%. I wish you could play the BlackJack machines with points but you cant for some reason.

You can also play tournaments at dollar for dollar if you want.

I dont know if this is available in Tampa but there's a Seminole convenience store near The Hard Rock in Hollywood and you can use your points to buy anything in there including gas.
I'm pretty sure they don't have anything like that at the one in Tampa. There's a souvenir shop but it's just junk and overpriced clothing. Sunglasses and watches are the only things remotely convertible to cash but way overpriced.

Can't play any casino games unfortunately. I can buy Hard Rock gift cards...but they can't be used for gambling either, just hotel stays, food and drink, souvenirs, etc. Maybe I could find a secondary market for the gift cards. It's really annoying having to just throw away most of my comp dollars.

Maybe I should just buy drinks for the table...though they might find it suspicious if I'm not drinking.
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Old 07-16-2018, 11:30 AM   #21917
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Regarding session length vs winrate, here's some of my results at 1/3 NL (only listing those with >= 200 hour samples):

Session length (hours): winrate (total hours)

5-6 hours: $19.39 (390 hours)
6-7 hours: $22.41 (1059 hours)
7-8 hours: $7.61 (211 hours)
8-9 hours: $18.56 (202 hours)
9-10 hours: $17.24 (725 hours)
10-11 hours: $18.40 (703 hours)
11-12 hours: $26.65 (430 hours)
12+ hours: $29.47 (211 hours)

Most of these are within a reasonable distance of my overall winrate of $20.59/hr. I pretty much play all my sessions to a set time (so no sticking around to chase losses or sit in a good game, I just leave when the clock ticks X).

And even though my results seem to show me catching a second win when I hit my longest sessions, my guess is that it's mostly meaningless lol sample size per segments noise (and this guess based a lot on WTF happens in my 7-8 hour sample size which is so out of sorts with all my other segments).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 07-16-2018, 12:11 PM   #21918
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Kato, I use Poker Bankroll Tracker. The user interface looks good, it offers cloud backup, and the support was good when I was trying to import data from other sources. They're in Europe but they responded to me within 24 hours.

The data filtering is not very intuitive which is a pain IMO. I've managed to stumble through it but there are some reports I can't seem to figure out. Also, it does not offer StDev calculations but IDGAF about it so YMMV.
As indicated I'm using three apps for the next month or so while I decide and here are my thoughts.
1 - Poker Mate: My original app, I picked 4 years ago because the free version looked ok and I didn't really know what I needed. I eventually bought the full version. It turns out it has a really nice interface and built in custom reports (All Time, This Month, This Year, Last 7 Days, Last 30 days, Last 365, etc, all with breakdowns by categories such as location, stake, day of week, etc) but no standard deviation, no import / export, and no graphs made me want to leave. I e-mailed the dev tho and he says there's a free 3.0 update in the works that will allow for easier future updates.

2 - Poker Bankroll Tracker: To Death's comment above this app DOES have standard deviation and a bunch of nice bells and whistles. I love the odds calculator (that supports ranges). The free version is ad based which is a minor nuisance but not terrible. It's UI is almost over the top for me. All the colors and fanciness is ok I guess but not necessary. The only thing I dont like so far about this app is the session list doesn't include play time, only location, profit, date, and game type. Small but I'm used to seeing this and think it's relevant to see without running a report. The other issue is it's subscription based, $8/year in the US seems fair though.

3 - Poker Income: The layout seems a little clunky but that could be just me getting used to something new. The free version reporting is super weak. The rest is standard I guess. I don't like that it doesn't value the concept of re-buys. If you re-buy it just adds on to the "buy in" and the rebuy details are lost.

No conclusion yet, but I'm leaning on dropping Poker Income next month and I may keep the other two just for the bells and whistles of the tracker. Hand Recorder, Odds Calculator, SD, graphs, all come with the free version. If the PM 3.0 never comes out I'll move to PBT.
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Old 07-16-2018, 01:36 PM   #21919
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Personally, I find it illogical to not include promo money in winrates.

You put money into the promo fund and then are subject to a model that is basically Number_of_Hands_Played + Variance = Promo_Money_Won.

This is not much different than putting money into a pot and being subject to a model that is Poker_Skill_Relative_to_my_Opponents + Variance = Poker_Money_Won.

There is always variance. You don't extract variance out of the money you win from playing pots, so I don't why it makes sense to extract it when putting money into the promo fund. If anything, tracking promo money gives you a BETTER idea of your sustainable poker income because you are accounting for more of the variance that you are subject to, and thus, are closer to capturing all the different effects of variance. This is all related to the law of large numbers and stochastic convergence.
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Old 07-16-2018, 01:57 PM   #21920
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How to Handle High Hand promotions

Mods-

Wasn't sure where to post this Q so if there a better spot, please move.

I was luck enough to win 2 high hand promotions during y session yesterday and was wondering how you guys incorporate those wins into your hourly? My gut tells me "not at all" because it isn't like I extracted that value from another player; I was simply in the right seat at the right time to hit gin.

Thoughts/Comments?

Thanks,

Shorn
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Old 07-16-2018, 01:59 PM   #21921
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Including high hands and excluding bad beat jackpot seems reasonable.
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Old 07-16-2018, 01:59 PM   #21922
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

You don't.

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Old 07-16-2018, 01:59 PM   #21923
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

I asked this same question in the "winrates" thread.

You should include it in your hourly.

Your hourly is hindered by the extra rake you're paying . In other words, someone playing at the same skill level as you are, in a game without that promotion, is making more per hour than you are.

You even that out by adding the prize money to your hourly.
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:17 PM   #21924
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Yeah, I think that's reasonable. A BBJ win is more of a once in a lifetime kinda thing. I may include a table share BBJ though if I played full time with no plans to stop doing so.
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:21 PM   #21925
c0rnBr34d
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Re: How to Handle High Hand promotions

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Originally Posted by RagingOwl View Post
I asked this same question in the "winrates" thread.

You should include it in your hourly.

Your hourly is hindered by the extra rake you're paying . In other words, someone playing at the same skill level as you are, in a game without that promotion, is making more per hour than you are.

You even that out by adding the prize money to your hourly.
Agreed as well, after reading Mike's comment in the other thread. It's a slippery slope though. I would still argue that the BBJ should be excluded even though you pay for that too. So at what point do you exclude? Clearly a 1/2 or 2/5 player bringing down a 100k+ BBJ will render the rest of your numbers pretty meaningless. Whereas a $500 High hand here or there is more fair compared to the extra rake.

And congrats Shorn, sounds like you were due!
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