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Old 06-17-2018, 08:32 PM   #21776
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Spyutastic's post gives me the sads. I'm at $85 ph at 2/3 over my past 100 hours (not my standard game, so it's taken 6 months) and thought I was crushing.
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Old 06-17-2018, 09:16 PM   #21777
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Spyutastic's post gives me the sads. I'm at $85 ph at 2/3 over my past 100 hours (not my standard game, so it's taken 6 months) and thought I was crushing.
You are crushing. I was just lucky to be in deep stacked games with fish williing to stack off with TP for 500bbs.

100bb poker at 2/3 has a much lower ceiling no matter how hot you run.
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Old 06-17-2018, 09:44 PM   #21778
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My best 100 hour streak at 2/5 is $134/hr. I'm definitely more of a consistent guy with less big wins and big losses though.
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Old 06-18-2018, 01:04 AM   #21779
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My best 100 hour streak at 2/5 is $134/hr. I'm definitely more of a consistent guy with less big wins and big losses though.
Probably the best type of graph. The ruler graph is the dream.
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Old 06-18-2018, 02:35 AM   #21780
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Probably the best type of graph. The ruler graph is the dream.
Eh who cares as long as the best fit line is nice and steep?
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Old 06-18-2018, 04:00 AM   #21781
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Eh who cares as long as the best fit line is nice and steep?
In all seriousness, most poker players would probably be more than happy sacrificing some EV for a less jagged graph.
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Old 06-18-2018, 05:11 AM   #21782
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In all seriousness, most poker players would probably be more than happy sacrificing some EV for a less jagged graph.
Truth.

well...they would in the downward parts of the graph!
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Old 06-18-2018, 06:24 AM   #21783
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In all seriousness, most poker players would probably be more than happy sacrificing some EV for a less jagged graph.
How much EV? Seems like somebody could make a lot of money selling poker players "variance insurance." I.e. if you win X BB/hr over a sufficiently large sample to convince me you're winning at X BB/hr, then I pay you .85X BB/hr and you pay me back X BB/hr within...IDK 18 months? You get a nice steady wage and I get 15% profits for absorbing the variance.

If only I had a few million in capital...

Personally I think wanting a ruler graph is kind of silly. First if you actually won like that every session would be the exact same. Second it's live poker. In the low stakes at least winrates are relatively high and risk of ruin relatively low. It's not like mass tabling online for 1 or 2 BB/100 where risk of ruin is serious without a huge bankroll.

Maybe I'll feel different if/when I start playing 5/T+.
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Old 06-18-2018, 06:51 AM   #21784
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In all seriousness, most poker players would probably be more than happy sacrificing some EV for a less jagged graph.
Probably true.

Even though I'm winning a lot more now then I was 3 years ago, back then my graph was just a straight line. Now I have massive swings and no matter how much I'm up at the end of the week/month I feel stressed af on a day to day basis.

Hell, taking some slightly lower EV lines for the sake of reducing variance may even be +EV in the sense that I won't have to take as much time off.
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Old 06-18-2018, 08:20 AM   #21785
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Probably true.

Even though I'm winning a lot more now then I was 3 years ago, back then my graph was just a straight line. Now I have massive swings and no matter how much I'm up at the end of the week/month I feel stressed af on a day to day basis.

Hell, taking some slightly lower EV lines for the sake of reducing variance may even be +EV in the sense that I won't have to take as much time off.
Bingo! This is exactly how I feel. I rarely take a lower EV line on purpose but if I think a big decision is close to neutral EV and I cant narrow villains range enough to be sure, I just lay it down and move on where other good players may say Damn the variance and go balls to the wall.

For me the lower stress at the end of the day has value. I also think I play better in general when things are running smoothly so a slightly lower variance line from time to time which might sacrifice some EV in that hand could give me higher EV overall from helping me play better. If that makes any sense.
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Old 06-18-2018, 08:25 AM   #21786
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How much EV? Seems like somebody could make a lot of money selling poker players "variance insurance." I.e. if you win X BB/hr over a sufficiently large sample to convince me you're winning at X BB/hr, then I pay you .85X BB/hr and you pay me back X BB/hr within...IDK 18 months? You get a nice steady wage and I get 15% profits for absorbing the variance.

If only I had a few million in capital...

Personally I think wanting a ruler graph is kind of silly. First if you actually won like that every session would be the exact same. Second it's live poker. In the low stakes at least winrates are relatively high and risk of ruin relatively low. It's not like mass tabling online for 1 or 2 BB/100 where risk of ruin is serious without a huge bankroll.

Maybe I'll feel different if/when I start playing 5/T+.
That's actually a very interesting idea. I definitely love it when my wins come steady and regularly. However, when I think about it more, I think I would like poker a lot less if I was actually getting paid $X/hr every hour. It would seem like an actual job and it could even make me play worse. I think I could slip into a robotic mode since I know Im making $X/hr every hour and might be playing my B game most of the time.
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Old 06-18-2018, 09:24 AM   #21787
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Wow some of these 100 hour samples are crazy and definitely serve as a humble pie for me as I realize my results are very pedestrian, especially for 1/2.

As to the "variance insurance" idea, Dan Harrington discusses the idea (a bit metaphorically) that LAGs essentially are sellers of this insurance to tighter players who are in effect buying this insurance from them.
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Old 06-18-2018, 10:13 AM   #21788
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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
if you win X BB/hr over a sufficiently large sample to convince me you're winning at X BB/hr, then I pay you .85X BB/hr and you pay me back X BB/hr within...IDK 18 months? You get a nice steady wage and I get 15% profits for absorbing the variance.
Technically you wouldnt even be absorbing any variance. Assuming you arent looking at your "investment player" day to day or week to week results.

If he averages $50/hr and plans to play 2000 hours in those 18 months, he should make around $100,000. You're going to pay him $50/hr every 2 weeks or whatever you make payday, and then hes going to give you $15,000 at the end of the 18 months. You wont even know how much variance he experienced. You're just making an investment with a predetermined profit level for you.

And that's exactly why it makes no sense for the player with a healthy bankroll to buy that insurance. Now someone playing a short bankroll might be interested but you probably wouldnt trust that person enough to pay him regularly.

Meh...back to the drawing board
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Old 06-18-2018, 11:03 AM   #21789
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Technically you wouldnt even be absorbing any variance. Assuming you arent looking at your "investment player" day to day or week to week results.

If he averages $50/hr and plans to play 2000 hours in those 18 months, he should make around $100,000. You're going to pay him $50/hr every 2 weeks or whatever you make payday, and then hes going to give you $15,000 at the end of the 18 months. You wont even know how much variance he experienced. You're just making an investment with a predetermined profit level for you.

And that's exactly why it makes no sense for the player with a healthy bankroll to buy that insurance. Now someone playing a short bankroll might be interested but you probably wouldnt trust that person enough to pay him regularly.

Meh...back to the drawing board
Next time I'm at your room I'm going to shout your username + 10 BB/HR to figure out who you are.
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Old 06-18-2018, 06:45 PM   #21790
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Next time I'm at your room I'm going to shout your username + 10 BB/HR to figure out who you are.
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Old 06-18-2018, 07:06 PM   #21791
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Technically you wouldnt even be absorbing any variance. Assuming you arent looking at your "investment player" day to day or week to week results.

If he averages $50/hr and plans to play 2000 hours in those 18 months, he should make around $100,000. You're going to pay him $50/hr every 2 weeks or whatever you make payday, and then hes going to give you $15,000 at the end of the 18 months. You wont even know how much variance he experienced. You're just making an investment with a predetermined profit level for you.

And that's exactly why it makes no sense for the player with a healthy bankroll to buy that insurance. Now someone playing a short bankroll might be interested but you probably wouldnt trust that person enough to pay him regularly.

Meh...back to the drawing board
Just seems a contradictory idea people are willing to sacrifice EV for a smoother graph but wouldn't buy my theoretical "variance insurance".

I would have to collect data to renegotiate every 18 months or whatever based on whether winrate appears to have gone up or down. Collecting the variance data would be important for me in order to figure out how many "customers" I could have, also whether a player has started slacking off and is no longer profitable as an investment etc.

But yeah I agree playing poker for a fixed wage would be really boring. Maybe I throw in health insurance for 30% profits.
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Old 06-18-2018, 07:25 PM   #21792
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There actually could be some pros that would buy the theoretical insurance but I think it would have to be less than 15%. In reality I dont think it would ever work and I do think the insured player would work less hard and their win rate would suffer, but I really like the idea on paper.
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Old 06-18-2018, 09:32 PM   #21793
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There actually could be some pros that would buy the theoretical insurance but I think it would have to be less than 15%. In reality I dont think it would ever work and I do think the insured player would work less hard and their win rate would suffer, but I really like the idea on paper.
Yep classic moral hazard problem with any insurance
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Old 06-19-2018, 03:49 PM   #21794
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Nice, Randroid. Not a large sample, but very nice.
Thanks! Given some of these 100hr win rates being cited, I don't even know if I'm a winning player.
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Old 06-19-2018, 04:08 PM   #21795
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Thanks! Given some of these 100hr win rates being cited, I don't even know if I'm a winning player.
The more you play, the more you'll know if a during a certain sample size you were just running hot, playing better or whatever. When I had my record 100 hr sample which was only back in Feb, there was no doubt in my mind that I was in God mode. I kept telling myself "enjoy it while it lasts: because I knew I was experiencing a freakish streak. I won 20 sessions in a row. I was playing well, sure, but I was hitting flop after flop after flop. I hit tons of sets and got paid off bigger than normal. People had 2nd best hands against me a lot...ect.

But yeah, Ive had 100 samples at $134/hr and at -$39/hr so an inexperienced player could easily misread his results in the short term. More experienced players should know the difference.

Amazingly enough, long term Im pretty close to right in the middle of that massive $134 and -$39 spread.
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Old 06-19-2018, 07:49 PM   #21796
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i was winning in my $2/5 game at about 10-11 bb/hr for ~500-600 hours.

i went on a pretty big downswing where i was probably down 10-12 buy-ins or so. i talked about this before somewhere, but i spent one weekend getting flopped set over set twice, and flopped set vs turned set once. nut flush vs 2nd flsuh on a non-paired 3-card flush board. flopped straights vs sets (and they boated up), etc.

the next 60-80 hours or so were spent just losing or breaking even.

i am now out of the downswing. i like to think i plugged up some leaks (played a bit tighter pre and post flop, etc), but a big part of getting out of the downswing was winning some massive pots, for example:

i played in a game a couple weekends ago where a drunk whale was just blasting off. whale opens to $30 (100% vpip, and blasts postfop with ATC). mp call. i call with 9dTd from co. button 3bets to $100. whale calls. mp calls. i call. flop 992. whale open ships for $1.2k. mp tank calls. i call. button calls. and i scoop a ~$3.4k pot in a $2/5 game.

almost 800 hours of $2/5 and i still have no idea if im good at poker or if im a clear winner. and my winrate is like 9-10 bb/hr.

that downswing really made me feel like 1) i sucked at poker and 2) the game is unbeatable. obv not true, but it really made me doubt myself and how profitable these games are

tldr - poker player goes on downswing and questions life and self. standard.
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Old 06-19-2018, 08:44 PM   #21797
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Best 100 hour streak was 18.5 bbs/hr ($2/$5 NL). Recently just logged my initial 1k hour, with win rate at 5.7 bbs/hr.
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Old 06-19-2018, 08:48 PM   #21798
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Definitely had a 100-hr stretch at $5/10 at like 35bb/hr. I've yet to run that hot and I play higher now.

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Old 06-20-2018, 03:02 AM   #21799
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Definitely had a 100-hr stretch at $5/10 at like 35bb/hr. I've yet to run that hot and I play higher now.

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Wtf? 100 hour stretch like that?
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Old 06-20-2018, 05:40 AM   #21800
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Yeah happened over 4 weekends. One of my better months.
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