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Old 06-01-2018, 03:30 PM   #21601
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Vancouver?

Calgary?

It's in Canada somewhere out west IIRC.

I'm not really sure if his games are bad or not. The rake is high as **** for sure, and he's always telling us about not getting paid or how short the stacks are ... but I think both of those could be impacted by his choices (play-time and stylewise).
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Old 06-01-2018, 03:59 PM   #21602
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
What does “tabling a set” mean and why do you think your fair share is 1/N? If you simply mean the percentage of the time your flipped set got to showdown then 1/N doesn’t represent your fair share.
I was collecting some data attempting to provide some insight as to what IO were like at my tables nowadays. Not only did I not really get the clarity on the issue I was hoping for but it's possible my whole method was flawed, but anyhoo...

I simply tracked any time someone at the table got to showdown with a set (and tabled their hand, so it does ignore times people didn't sympathy show their sets when beat on the river). I also tried to categorize whether it was purely a setming set (versus, say, a monster pair that just happened to make a set along the way).

Anyhoo, I ended up tabling 16% of the the tabled sets which I thought were more-or-less setmining cases. You're going to have to point out where I've gone wrong with the math, but all things being equal, at a 10 handed table every one should show down the same number of set-mining-set cases (i.e. 10% each). Now of course it was a lol sample size of only ~100 hours (i.e. I only tabled 4 setmining sets in this time period), and of course not everyone plays the same (interestingly enough, I actually play tighter than most as I highly doubt anyone is folding small pocket pairs in EP like I am / folding to raises with no callers / etc., so if anything you'd expect my share of tabled sets to be way lower than everyone else). But regardless, I found it interesting how I technically I got more than my fair share of action (which sorta disproves the you-don't-get-action-cuz-you're-a-nit idea).

As I say: where do you think I went wrong math wise here? I'm not a math guy, I'm open to be shown my mistake.

GcluelessmathnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-01-2018 at 04:15 PM.
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Old 06-01-2018, 04:06 PM   #21603
gobbledygeek
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I mean the only way to see if his games are really that nitty/dry is to have someone else decent at poker to show up here and chime in with their opinion of the card room.

Also, if the games are really that bad, why even play poker there? Is it really enjoyable to sit there under artificial light with bad posture and grind out 4-5BB against other nitty short stacks?
Where in the world are you getting the idea that my games are nitty/dry/bad? I've never said any such thing.

And are you arguing that a winrate of 4-5 bb/hr at a lowstakes / 100b BI / high rake is poor?

Gcripes,ifthat'ssubparthenIguesseveryoneinthebotto m99.9%shouldquitpoker?G
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Old 06-01-2018, 04:08 PM   #21604
gobbledygeek
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It's in Canada somewhere out west IIRC.
Saskatchewan Poker and Bingo Emporium.

Gtakearightatthebarn,watchforroadapplesG
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Old 06-01-2018, 04:24 PM   #21605
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Where in the world are you getting the idea that my games are nitty/dry/bad? I've never said any such thing.

And are you arguing that a winrate of 4-5 bb/hr at a lowstakes / 100b BI / high rake is poor?

Gcripes,ifthat'ssubparthenIguesseveryoneinthebotto m99.9%shouldquitpoker?G
The way you describe how the action goes at your table says it for you. You don't have to explicitly state it.

I'm implying that it's entirely reasonable that if games are bad/dry, then being in the top 1 percentile may mean they are only beatable for 6-7BB, whereas in a juicier game, the same player will be able to beat it for 10-11BB/hr

Feel free to argue for that or against that, I'm just throwing it out there for discussion.
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Old 06-01-2018, 04:48 PM   #21606
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still advocating that any GG pertaining topics and GG himself be banned from this thread for the sake of everyone else. otherwise any poster asking about WR/etc. (yknow, the strict topic of this thread) is gonna be responded to by him and then everyone else is gonna say “no actually” and it’s the same terrible f***ing posts from him and everyone that ate the bait over and over and over
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Old 06-01-2018, 05:03 PM   #21607
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Maybe only people who regularly post their winrates in this thread should be allowed to post?

I mean, I take a lot a ****, but at least I put my money where my mouth is and stand by it (for better or worse). Can't say the same for quite a lot of the **** talkers in this thread.

Gputup,orshutup,imoG

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Old 06-01-2018, 05:52 PM   #21608
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New rule: Only ppl with 4k+ hours at a certain stake are allowed to respond to winrate questions. Everyone else has an lolsmallsamplesize and is just running hot and thus their opinion is meaningless.
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Old 06-01-2018, 05:58 PM   #21609
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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
New rule: Only ppl with 4k+ hours at a certain stake are allowed to respond to winrate questions. Everyone else has an lolsmallsamplesize and is just running hot and thus their opinion is meaningless.
Oh, I'd love to see everyone's 600hr sample size too, so feel free.

Giraffes away! Put me in my place! This should be awesome! I'll finally have to eat crow!

GnotholdingmybreathG
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Old 06-01-2018, 05:58 PM   #21610
Shai Hulud
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Small suited Aces, broadway hands like KT, QT, QJ, JT, suited connectors or gappers like J9s/76s...ect. It would take me years to try to track any meaningful sample with each individual hand.
Yes it would, which is why it would be interesting to see results for individual hands at a live table. Such data is hard to come by. I remember playing online I could analyze how I'm doing with specific hands in each position after just months of play. But live...so much guesswork because building live databases is ridiculously slow and tedious.

Some of the hands you have in this range might be quite profitable, while others not at all. I'm not sure what tracking such a disparate range accomplishes...KTo plays very different from 76s as I'm sure you know. Just an idea, but if you separated the hands into groups you could get reasonably accurate results with much less time invested than tracking individual hands. For instance, group A: Suited Broadway, group B: Offsuit Broadway, group C: AXs (X<10), group D: SCs

I would track this myself but I don't want to start limp/calling all these hands for experimentation's sake at this point.

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Old 06-01-2018, 06:04 PM   #21611
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I repeat this story all the time, but I still remember when I reached 2000 hours and wondered "gee, I wonder if playing 55 UTG is profitable?" and was angry at myself for not keeping track of all this information so I would know for sure. Then I did the math and realized the conclusion would have been based on how well I ran in just 4 flopped sets (if I ran at par).

Git'stoughtodrawconclusionsfromdatalikethis,imoG
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Old 06-01-2018, 06:33 PM   #21612
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Oh, I'd love to see everyone's 600hr sample size too, so feel free.

Giraffes away! Put me in my place! This should be awesome! I'll finally have to eat crow!

GnotholdingmybreathG
missingthepoint.gif
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Old 06-01-2018, 06:59 PM   #21613
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Oh, I'd love to see everyone's 600hr sample size too, so feel free.

Giraffes away! Put me in my place! This should be awesome! I'll finally have to eat crow!

GnotholdingmybreathG
People repeatedly put you in your place all the time lol. You just continue to spew off the same **** over and over regardless. Mods, can GG please get banned from this thread? The constant trolling and derails he creates actually ruin this thread.
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Old 06-01-2018, 08:55 PM   #21614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Yes it would, which is why it would be interesting to see results for individual hands at a live table. Such data is hard to come by. I remember playing online I could analyze how I'm doing with specific hands in each position after just months of play. But live...so much guesswork because building live databases is ridiculously slow and tedious.

Some of the hands you have in this range might be quite profitable, while others not at all. I'm not sure what tracking such a disparate range accomplishes...KTo plays very different from 76s as I'm sure you know. Just an idea, but if you separated the hands into groups you could get reasonably accurate results with much less time invested than tracking individual hands. For instance, group A: Suited Broadway, group B: Offsuit Broadway, group C: AXs (X<10), group D: SCs

I would track this myself but I don't want to start limp/calling all these hands for experimentation's sake at this point.
I'm not doing it as an experiment. I already believe I can play these hands profitably. I'm tracking to make sure I'm not delusional.

I think 98s UTG is probably more profitable than KT UTG. You can probably win more hands with KT but I think you can win more money with 98s. Im not saying either is hugely profitable UTG but I do think that the more hands you can play without losing money, the more money you can make on your actual good solid playable hands.

I track other things for similar reasons. I track all lite 3 bets. Can I win without ever 3 betting lite? Of course, but if I can at least break even with any non premium 3 betting type hands, then I am being seen 3 betting more often and I get more people calling my 3 bets with weaker hands and get more action with my premiums.

Ive been tracking this for about 700 hours now. My lite 3 bets have been called 41% of the time. In the 59% of the time that they fold I make an avg of 7 BBs per hand. In the 41% that they call Ive lost an avg of 0.9 BBs per hand. In total, my lite 3 bets show an avg profit of 4.1BBs/hand. So far, Im picking the right spots and doing well with this on top of it getting me more action with my actual premium 3 betting hands than I would get otherwise.

If I didnt track this stuff Id be guessing whether or not 3 betting lite was of any use at all.
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Old 06-01-2018, 09:27 PM   #21615
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Idk if it’s been mentioned, but if raising 15 goes 5 way all the time, then that’s a super soft game you should be making a lot of money in.
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Old 06-01-2018, 09:29 PM   #21616
Shai Hulud
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If I didnt track this stuff Id be guessing whether or not 3 betting lite was of any use at all.
Or you could rely on range analysis, theory and mathematics. Not as if you're in uncharted territory making light 3-bets.

By all means keep up whatever you're doing. It's clearly working for you.
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Old 06-01-2018, 09:35 PM   #21617
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Originally Posted by PixieRust View Post
Idk if it’s been mentioned, but if raising 15 goes 5 way all the time, then that’s a super soft game you should be making a lot of money in.
GGs posts describe these weird games where everyone else calls preflop with ATC for any price, but then always flop the nuts, so if you flop the 2nd nuts and face pressure you should just fold.

When I raise $15 and get 5 callers I know I'm right in the game I want to be in. In these games I try to make every pot I play a big one. TPTK can still be a good hand in a 6 way pot if you know what you're doing.
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Old 06-01-2018, 11:18 PM   #21618
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Reraising light gives you image to get paid off too, even if it's neutral in a vacuum. It can be huge if it just means you get paid once in a 300bb pot every few sessions.
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Old 06-01-2018, 11:27 PM   #21619
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Right on. Given an ev neutral choice between calling or raising I will take the higher variance raise every time. While you can still win as a nit at LLSNL, it seems more profitable and more fun to LAG it up.
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Old 06-02-2018, 12:07 AM   #21620
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gg if you really are in that area of Canada, I looked up poker atlas on a Friday night and....my word that's depressing. do any of your rooms link to Bravo?
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Old 06-02-2018, 12:45 AM   #21621
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Originally Posted by Koss View Post
Right on. Given an ev neutral choice between calling or raising I will take the higher variance raise every time. While you can still win as a nit at LLSNL, it seems more profitable and more fun to LAG it up.
That's why I play showdowns before or after a game. *Literally* 0EV coinflips that help my image? SOLD!
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Old 06-02-2018, 09:32 AM   #21622
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Hi all,

Would love some honest feedback here please on my stats

Can you guys help me assess this?

My Big bet/ hour is 4.33???

My BB/hr standard deviation is 37.55

My $/hr standard deviation is 101.16

What does this all mean and is mine good or normal?

Also thoughts on this?

At 1/3 and 1/2 I have played 474.5 hours and I am winning 7.75 per hour

I know my sample size is small but thoughts overall?

Total winnings=3676

This is over the last year and a half

Thoughts overall?

Thank you guys so much
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Old 06-02-2018, 10:15 AM   #21623
Garick
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Richard,

You are winning overall, so that is good and pretty rare.

What tracker are you using? Few NL trackers give winnings in Big Bet/hr anymore. Most are Big Blind/hr. If you are winning $7.75/hr, you are winning about 3.8BBs/hr at 1/2 and 2.6 at 1/3. I don't see any way that adds up to 4.33, as that is higher than either of them, so I'm suspicious of your tracker's accuracy.

Assuming the SDev is accurate, you are playing a very low variance, likely very passive, style. To get that low, you probably aren't betting draws, making c-bets, betting rivers for thin value, etc. Most winning players have much higher SDev, in the 75-100BB/hr range. There are a few of us ITT down around 50BB/hr, but that's pretty rare. Yours is very low for a winning player. It seems likely that you could improve your winrate by playing a bit more aggressively, though I would add aggressive options to your game one at a time, rather than all at once.
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Old 06-02-2018, 10:26 AM   #21624
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Richard,

You are winning overall, so that is good and pretty rare.

What tracker are you using? Few NL trackers give winnings in Big Bet/hr anymore. Most are Big Blind/hr. If you are winning $7.75/hr, you are winning about 3.8BBs/hr at 1/2 and 2.6 at 1/3. I don't see any way that adds up to 4.33, as that is higher than either of them, so I'm suspicious of your tracker's accuracy.

Assuming the SDev is accurate, you are playing a very low variance, likely very passive, style. To get that low, you probably aren't betting draws, making c-bets, betting rivers for thin value, etc. Most winning players have much higher SDev, in the 75-100BB/hr range. There are a few of us ITT down around 50BB/hr, but that's pretty rare. Yours is very low for a winning player. It seems likely that you could improve your winrate by playing a bit more aggressively, though I would add aggressive options to your game one at a time, rather than all at once.

Hi Garrick!

Thank you so much for the response!

I use poker income pro

Your advice is much appreciated!

How do I interpret the standard deviation stuff? Can you explain more?

I totally agree I play too passively for sure so ur analysis is spot on
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Old 06-02-2018, 11:13 AM   #21625
Garick
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So Standard Deviation is just the standard variance between your observed overall winrate and your likely hour-to-hour results. Very rarely will you have an hour that is exactly $7.75+. Instead, you'll have hours that vary usually within a range of (in your case) losing $93.41 to winning $108.91, with the average coming out to +$7.75.

That seems like a lot, but most winning players have even greater hourly variance. No-Limit is a swingy game.
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