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Old 09-19-2019, 04:13 PM   #24151
7weeks2days
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If current win rate ceilings are in the following ballpark currently :

15 BBs for 1/2
12 BBs for 2/5
10 BBs for 5/10

What do you think were winrate ceilings 15 years ago?
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Old 09-19-2019, 04:33 PM   #24152
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
If current win rate ceilings are in the following ballpark currently :

15 BBs for 1/2
12 BBs for 2/5
10 BBs for 5/10

What do you think were winrate ceilings 15 years ago?
I think you could make seven figures in 5/10 if you had today's knowledge in 2004.

edit: What I'm getting at is that people crushing in 2004 didn't know as much as is known now, so it's hard to accurately gauge, but people were making crazy money in poker in the mid to late 2000s.
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Old 09-19-2019, 04:44 PM   #24153
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
I think you could make seven figures in 5/10 if you had today's knowledge in 2004.

edit: What I'm getting at is that people crushing in 2004 didn't know as much as is known now, so it's hard to accurately gauge, but people were making crazy money in poker in the mid to late 2000s.
basically.

i remember watching old videos where coaches (i think vanessa selbst was one of them) talking about specifically this new concept they stumbled upon: betting the flop after raising preflop with air. they figured out cbetting was, like, profitable because they observed people just folded otf. they were playing low limit online and basically mashing the bet button 100% of flops. and then they would just get to showdown and see what the player called with and everyone who got to showdown had a hand or a descent draw. basically no one knew about floating back then. it was amazing though and they were amazed by the results. it was honestly really fun to watch because they were actually excited about it and it was a different time where people ad to figure this stuff out on their own because solvers were years away.

that led to floating and reverse floating. i actually miss those days, not because the poker was easier, per say, but because it was just more fun. it was less about being a robotic math machine.

Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 09-19-2019 at 04:50 PM.
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Old 09-19-2019, 04:44 PM   #24154
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

All those pros from your room 5 years ago that aren't there today -- it's not because they made bank in that time period and retired. The obsession with theoretical max attainable/sustainable win rates is nauseating. Half the pros I run into are disheveled looking people seemingly one downswing away from throwing in the towel. The other half built their nut during the online days when live poker was a gold mine and are sitting on 6 figure BR's they could never build up today if they needed to.
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Old 09-19-2019, 05:08 PM   #24155
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
All those pros from your room 5 years ago that aren't there today -- it's not because they made bank in that time period and retired. The obsession with theoretical max attainable/sustainable win rates is nauseating. Half the pros I run into are disheveled looking people seemingly one downswing away from throwing in the towel. The other half built their nut during the online days when live poker was a gold mine and are sitting on 6 figure BR's they could never build up today if they needed to.
Sounds like you are saying all today's pros suck.
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Old 09-19-2019, 05:18 PM   #24156
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I too find this obsession with WRs (both theoretical and actual) really strange. Win rate is a metric obv. But no one plays perfectly or near perfectly all the time. They just don't. Particularly as the hours stack up.

Just play your best. Pay attention. Analyze spots you are in and try and improve the way you play those spots. Rinse/repeat. And obviously and probably most importantly,. Try to be as honest with yourself as possible. Self awareness in any endeavor is often the biggest differentiator between long term success and something less than that
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Old 09-19-2019, 05:30 PM   #24157
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Re: Bankroll management advice

You are fine with that. You should try to stay around d*d/wr big blinds for your given stake(it's deduced from the kelly equation), with d your standard devation over 100 hands and wrate your bb/100h.
So in your case, let's say you have a wrate of 10bb/100h and a standard deviation of 100bb/100h. Well, you need 1000 blinds to play the game which means you are golden
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Old 09-19-2019, 06:37 PM   #24158
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It doesn't matter much if you are a committed rec (even a winning one) and your financial interests lie elsewhere.

To some degree, it doesn't much matter if you are pot committed to being a poker pro. If it's either poker or pizza delivery, just work hard on your game.

It does matter if you're making a significant financial choice. I really am thinking about working on my game and playing more 2/5. I think 1 part time player (I'll always do other stuff) can probably only guess at their true win rate. But knowing the range of realistic possibilities helps that guess.

This is all vague, but let's say there are 200 people in Vegas attempting to grind 2/5. If I can become like the 25th best player, would that mean $55/hr or $30/hr? Pretty big difference. Worth knowing.
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Old 09-19-2019, 06:48 PM   #24159
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Wow thanks for this post cannabusto! Do you know how many live hours you have just out of curiosity?



Also,



What do you think about this? I know u are obviously good for the game/extremely friendly and just a great person to have at the table. I try to do this as well and be kind and friendly to my table mates.



I think if you focused a lot more and tried to actively watch every hand I would pick up on more stuff but I don’t.. I think long term I may be losing money by doing this but honestly it might be moren+EV to be known as a friendly nice player at the local card room.



Thoughts?
I have no idea how many hours. As far as live casino hours since the mid 00s, maybe 5k hours or so. But I played a ton in home games in my teens and early twenties too. If you counted those plus online play, I don't think I even want to know.

I can't focus on every hand and I'm not sure the mental effort is worth it for many. What I found useful in the past is to take notes on regs I find myself playing with often. Then I pull those notes up when they sit at my table.
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Old 09-19-2019, 11:17 PM   #24160
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
All those pros from your room 5 years ago that aren't there today -- it's not because they made bank in that time period and retired. The obsession with theoretical max attainable/sustainable win rates is nauseating. Half the pros I run into are disheveled looking people seemingly one downswing away from throwing in the towel. The other half built their nut during the online days when live poker was a gold mine and are sitting on 6 figure BR's they could never build up today if they needed to.
As a disheveled looking pro who built his six figure bankroll in the last couple years, you don't know what the **** you are talking about.

Live poker still is a gold mine. That's what they've been trying to tell you.
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Old 09-19-2019, 11:25 PM   #24161
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Askesis View Post
As a disheveled looking pro who built his six figure bankroll in the last couple years, you don't know what the **** you are talking about.

Live poker still is a gold mine. That's what they've been trying to tell you.
High six figs?

I tend to agree, live games are still very profitable.
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Old 09-19-2019, 11:55 PM   #24162
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Askesis View Post
As a disheveled looking pro who built his six figure bankroll in the last couple years, you don't know what the **** you are talking about.

Live poker still is a gold mine. That's what they've been trying to tell you.
Congrats you are an outlier.
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:32 AM   #24163
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
The conversation was about people making the "right plays" and some not even knowing what the right plays are even though they think they do. I basically said that if you aren't near the following win rates, that you aren't making the right plays often enough because I think these numbers are attainable.

15 BBs for 1/2
12 BBs for 2/5
10 BBs for 5/10

Honestly I think win rate ceilings can be even higher in the right conditions. I didnt say those are my win rates. I said I think the ceilings are in that area.
I posted a while back 9.74 BBs at 5/10. About 10 hours ago it was 9.98 BB. I only have like 350 hours but I have a very good sense of where I stand and I am very confident my winrate is right around 9.5-10 BB in this game. That said, the game has been tougher this year for whatever reason. I play on average 2x a week, 5 hours per week, so my sessions are spread out over a few years.

I think these ceilings are right. I find it hard to imagine (myself) sustaining 12 BB per hour... I was at 13 BB at my peak, but that's when I was running hot.

Last edited by rainbow57; 09-20-2019 at 12:40 AM.
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:39 AM   #24164
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by rainbow57 View Post
I posted a while back 9.74 BBs at 5/10. About 10 hours ago it was 9.98 BB. I only have like 350 hours but I have a very good sense of where I stand and I am very confident my winrate is right around 9.5-10 BB in this game. That said, the game has been tougher this year for whatever reason. I play on average 2x a week, 5 hours per week, so my sessions are spread out over a few years.

I think these ceilings are right. I find it hard to imagine sustaining 12 BB per hour... I was at 13 BB at my peak, but that's when I was running hot.
The difference between 10bb/hr vs 12bb/hr over 350 hours at 5/10 is 700bb, which is a handful of pots going a different way, or not happening, or happening. It's one amazing session. You can't have that level of confidence over that sample, especially over several years of shifting conditions.
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Old 09-20-2019, 12:40 AM   #24165
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mike is presumably talking about full time hours (ie: 2000+ per year) which is the only context sustainable/attainable win rates should be discussed in. And to that I’d say a) good luck getting 2000 hours of 5/10 in one year let alone year in year out and b) lol if you think your long term expectation is 10 BB/hr.
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Old 09-20-2019, 01:52 AM   #24166
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Re: Bankroll management advice

The typical advice is 20 buyins. This needs to be tweaked based on game type (PLO = double to triple that), game aggressiveness, your style (Lag, Tag, etc.).

10 buyins sounds like a lot until the first time you drop 8 in 5 hours.
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Old 09-20-2019, 02:01 AM   #24167
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Re: Bankroll management advice

Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
The typical advice is 20 buyins. This needs to be tweaked based on game type (PLO = double to triple that), game aggressiveness, your style (Lag, Tag, etc.).



10 buyins sounds like a lot until the first time you drop 8 in 5 hours.

This.
How many hours you have playing this so called SO SOFT game?
Maybe it seens soft because you are running well and players are running bad and getting cooled often by you.
Be carefull and keep tracking your results.

GL
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Old 09-20-2019, 02:02 AM   #24168
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Re: Bankroll management advice

The Kelly Criterion really doesn’t apply very well to poker. Firstly it assumes the availability of a continuous selection of bet sizes/stakes, which poker doesn’t have, especially live poker has very narrow selection. Secondly and perhaps more importantly, winrate doesn’t scale with stakes, so we would have to play hundreds of thousands of hands every time we move up just to know what inputs we should be using for the equations.

Most people are correctly much more conservative than Kelly when it comes to poker BRM.
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Old 09-20-2019, 02:09 AM   #24169
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Re: Bankroll management advice

If you have a job, then you're fine to keep playing.
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Old 09-20-2019, 04:03 AM   #24170
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
good luck getting 2000 hours of 5/10 in one year let alone year in year out and .
It may be time for me to move to find a place with 5/10 action more available and this has been bothering me? I’m thinking my only options are Vegas (toughest 5/10 I hear), cali, boston, and DC/balt?
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Old 09-20-2019, 09:31 AM   #24171
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Getting chippy in here again folks. Gentle reminder to all to post respectfully.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:32 AM   #24172
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Don’t make Garick track you down and beat you with some medieval blunt object.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:39 AM   #24173
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Don’t make Garick track you down and beat you with some medieval blunt object.
What if we're into that kind of thing?

Asking for a friend

NTTAWWT
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Old 09-20-2019, 11:01 AM   #24174
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^in that case, carry on.
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Old 09-20-2019, 11:41 AM   #24175
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
It doesn't matter much if you are a committed rec (even a winning one) and your financial interests lie elsewhere.

To some degree, it doesn't much matter if you are pot committed to being a poker pro. If it's either poker or pizza delivery, just work hard on your game.

It does matter if you're making a significant financial choice. I really am thinking about working on my game and playing more 2/5. I think 1 part time player (I'll always do other stuff) can probably only guess at their true win rate. But knowing the range of realistic possibilities helps that guess.

This is all vague, but let's say there are 200 people in Vegas attempting to grind 2/5. If I can become like the 25th best player, would that mean $55/hr or $30/hr? Pretty big difference. Worth knowing.
Right but the knowing is only good if the data can be reliably and accurately obtained. The likelihood that any more than a handful of posters are posting precise numbers ITT is dubious at best IMO. And this says nothing of survivorship bias, etc.

IOW I get what your saying, I just don't believe you will find the answer you are looking for ITT. But that's just me
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