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Old 06-12-2018, 10:31 AM   #21676
MikeStarr
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Im in a 210 hr breakeven stretch. My worst ever is 230 hours but this one has been especially brutal because I'm losing almost every All in pot I play. It doesnt matter how much equity I have. It doesnt matter if Im drawing...or if hes drawing. Im losing almost all of them.

Ive lost $3200 in All in EV in these 210 hrs. If we could do equity chops of all in pots, Id be over $15/hr during this breakeven streak just from that alone. Ive lost over $6000 in All in EV since March 1st.

I came back from vacation recently and have played 12 hours in June and have already lost $500 in All in EV in June. I go in to play with a fresh attitude anytime I play and walk out shaking my head over and over.

I pray it ends soon because its sucking the life out of me.

My lifetime session win % is 69%
My last 30 sessions Ive won 27%
Up 6 buyins the last 3 days. Maybe the monkey is off my back?
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:56 AM   #21677
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Up 6 buyins the last 3 days. Maybe the monkey is off my back?


inb4 poasting curse
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:52 PM   #21678
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I played online for years, played up to 50/100, never played live until this last year. I am playing in a 2/5 game with a 1k max buyin, highest stakes available locally. I haven’t played in it that long, but I would say half the players buy in for more than 500 and about 35% do the full 1k. The game plays deep. I’m trying to estimate my hourly, but haven’t clocked enough hours yet. 2 extremely noobish questions and I apologize in advance if they’ve been asked a million times here.

1) achievable hourly? Mine seems very high and I want to see if it’s realistic. I’ve read some about winrates in 2/5 games but the stack depths (coupled with no one knowing how to play deep) makes it hard for me to figure.

2) about how many hands an hour can I estimate for live poker? And how long does it take to see true winrates in such soft lineups? I keep trying to count and keep losing track and forgetting.

Thanks in advance, I appreciate it!
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:37 PM   #21679
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Thanks wj. I don't really have a stop loss. If the game is good and I'm at least on my B game I'll stay. Otherwise if I'm tilted from being stuck I'll just rack up or take a break if it's only been a short session. I have entitlement tilt issues especially when I'm in a good game and I can't win or have to fold an hour straight while trying to pretend to care about what the whale is saying. It's probably my biggest leak atm.
still amazing not to have had a 2 buy in loss at almost 1k hours. TBH, even your record win is very low too.

maybe your games play small?
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:41 PM   #21680
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Originally Posted by Oladipo View Post
I played online for years, played up to 50/100, never played live until this last year. I am playing in a 2/5 game with a 1k max buyin, highest stakes available locally. I haven’t played in it that long, but I would say half the players buy in for more than 500 and about 35% do the full 1k. The game plays deep. I’m trying to estimate my hourly, but haven’t clocked enough hours yet. 2 extremely noobish questions and I apologize in advance if they’ve been asked a million times here.

1) achievable hourly? Mine seems very high and I want to see if it’s realistic. I’ve read some about winrates in 2/5 games but the stack depths (coupled with no one knowing how to play deep) makes it hard for me to figure.

2) about how many hands an hour can I estimate for live poker? And how long does it take to see true winrates in such soft lineups? I keep trying to count and keep losing track and forgetting.

Thanks in advance, I appreciate it!

imo, best estimate for hands per hour is 30. I know (having spoken with my room mgmt about it) that 28-30 is about right for my game - I know some people say 35 or even more, but that would definitely not be accurate for my game where we see a flop 99% of the time and almost always a turn too.

achievable hourly and number of hands to see true winrate is the subject of a huge amount of nittery and debate in this thread and I won't even attempt to jump down that foxhole
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:43 PM   #21681
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Oladipo View Post
I played online for years, played up to 50/100, never played live until this last year. I am playing in a 2/5 game with a 1k max buyin, highest stakes available locally. I haven’t played in it that long, but I would say half the players buy in for more than 500 and about 35% do the full 1k. The game plays deep. I’m trying to estimate my hourly, but haven’t clocked enough hours yet. 2 extremely noobish questions and I apologize in advance if they’ve been asked a million times here.

1) achievable hourly? Mine seems very high and I want to see if it’s realistic. I’ve read some about winrates in 2/5 games but the stack depths (coupled with no one knowing how to play deep) makes it hard for me to figure.

2) about how many hands an hour can I estimate for live poker? And how long does it take to see true winrates in such soft lineups? I keep trying to count and keep losing track and forgetting.

Thanks in advance, I appreciate it!
1. Really depends on player pool, their ability, your ability and game type. so who knows? Most winners probably falling
into $30-$50 an hr. But yeah can vary quite a bit and over time. So who knows.

2. Depends hand or auto shuffle. Also depends on game type, but avg I think is 27-30 hands an hr is reasonable.
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:57 PM   #21682
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Oladipo View Post
I played online for years, played up to 50/100, never played live until this last year. I am playing in a 2/5 game with a 1k max buyin, highest stakes available locally. I haven’t played in it that long, but I would say half the players buy in for more than 500 and about 35% do the full 1k. The game plays deep. I’m trying to estimate my hourly, but haven’t clocked enough hours yet. 2 extremely noobish questions and I apologize in advance if they’ve been asked a million times here.

1) achievable hourly? Mine seems very high and I want to see if it’s realistic. I’ve read some about winrates in 2/5 games but the stack depths (coupled with no one knowing how to play deep) makes it hard for me to figure.

2) about how many hands an hour can I estimate for live poker? And how long does it take to see true winrates in such soft lineups? I keep trying to count and keep losing track and forgetting.

Thanks in advance, I appreciate it!
~30 hands per hour. Given the deep structure of your game $40-$50 could be doable depending on lineups and whatnot.
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Old 06-13-2018, 01:09 AM   #21683
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imo, best estimate for hands per hour is 30. I know (having spoken with my room mgmt about it) that 28-30 is about right for my game - I know some people say 35 or even more, but that would definitely not be accurate for my game where we see a flop 99% of the time and almost always a turn too.

achievable hourly and number of hands to see true winrate is the subject of a huge amount of nittery and debate in this thread and I won't even attempt to jump down that foxhole

30 is the best estimate. It goes up when the lineup is nitty and reggy and down when it's full of whales who take ages for simple decisions.
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Old 06-13-2018, 01:32 AM   #21684
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Thanks guys. Much appreciated. I have been thinking that $75/hr is possible but I’m probably just running hot in big pots and it’s skewed my thinking
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Old 06-13-2018, 01:38 AM   #21685
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Achievable hourly is over $50/hr..perhaps much higher depending on how soft the games are. I suspect where you are the games are very soft. If you were beating bigger games then you have the aptitude to beat 5/T+ for more. Doesn't mean you will necessarily be successful but you should have the aptitude.
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Old 06-13-2018, 01:52 AM   #21686
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Achievable hourly is over $50/hr..perhaps much higher depending on how soft the games are. I suspect where you are the games are very soft. If you were beating bigger games then you have the aptitude to beat 5/T+ for more. Doesn't mean you will necessarily be successful but you should have the aptitude.
OP doesn't actually say he won online, just that he played very big. I'm sure he did but...we don't know for sure!

there's a guy in my game who talks a lot about how he sat OTB Red Baron and battled him for most of a week but this only proves he's a degenerate with bad judgement and doesn't give any indication of his potential win rate at 2/5/10
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:02 AM   #21687
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He posted in his thread from a few months ago that he won online and played for a living for some time so I was basing my comments on that. He also stated there that he is in the San Francisco Bay Area. I'd expect a lot of big money players and fewer pros than other locations.
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Old 06-13-2018, 05:12 AM   #21688
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still amazing not to have had a 2 buy in loss at almost 1k hours. TBH, even your record win is very low too.

maybe your games play small?
Nah I just play nitty or maybe have been blessed with low variance. For example AJo/KQo I open fold from EP without reads. But I just doomswitched myself by poasting a graph. Now on a record downswing for 1/2 and 1/3. It's not much but still feels bad losing to ******s.
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Old 06-13-2018, 10:23 AM   #21689
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Up 6 buyins the last 3 days. Maybe the monkey is off my back?
This year, I've lost $11K in All in EV for 330 hrs. I only count mid-large pots allin before river.

Few examples -

1. AA vs QQ PFAI for 2k pot (-1.6K ev).
2. 22 vs KK on 662-J board allin on the turn, K on the river for a $4k pot(-3.6K ev).
3. 88 vs AA, 8xx-x allin on ther turn for 1.7K pot, A on the river.

I have a day job so that I can only play 60hrs/month, this makes me feel the run bad will never end.
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Old 06-13-2018, 10:43 AM   #21690
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This year, I've lost $11K in All in EV for 330 hrs. I only count mid-large pots allin before river.

Few examples -

1. AA vs QQ PFAI for 2k pot (-1.6K ev).
2. 22 vs KK on 662-J board allin on the turn, K on the river for a $4k pot(-3.6K ev).
3. 88 vs AA, 8xx-x allin on ther turn for 1.7K pot, A on the river.

I have a day job so that I can only play 60hrs/month, this makes me feel the run bad will never end.
That's pretty disgusting. Is that 2/5 or 5/10?

I count every All in pot no matter how big or small. I would've thought after almost 4000 hours it would even out but apparently the long term can take a very long time.
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Old 06-13-2018, 11:21 AM   #21691
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Originally Posted by PokerNoob@ View Post
This year, I've lost $11K in All in EV for 330 hrs. I only count mid-large pots allin before river.

Few examples -

1. AA vs QQ PFAI for 2k pot (-1.6K ev).
2. 22 vs KK on 662-J board allin on the turn, K on the river for a $4k pot(-3.6K ev).
3. 88 vs AA, 8xx-x allin on ther turn for 1.7K pot, A on the river.

I have a day job so that I can only play 60hrs/month, this makes me feel the run bad will never end.
I also tell Mike this when he does his all-in EV calcs, but these don't tell the whole story of how well or bad you're running (only part of the story).

For example, you got AA vs QQ. That's running well.

For example, how many times were you able to get the money in as a massive fave against a fish (as opposed to a solid player). Again, that's running well.

And one of the few things I confirmed from my setmining project: sets lose at a decent clip (about 20% of the sets I saw tabled lost the hand), and of course when you lose with a set you typically lose your stack (and this isn't factored into the overall profitability of setmining nearly enough, imo). Heck, even flopping a set against an overpair you'll still lose by the river about 10% of the time (counting the times he oversets you by then or runner runners a flush/straight). Flopping a set doesn't entitle you to the pot.

Gall-inEVisonlypartofthestoryofhowyou'rerunningG
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Old 06-13-2018, 11:29 AM   #21692
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That's pretty disgusting. Is that 2/5 or 5/10?

I count every All in pot no matter how big or small. I would've thought after almost 4000 hours it would even out but apparently the long term can take a very long time.
Most are 2-5, but the 22 vs KK $4K pot is 5/10 with $25 straddle.

Honestly, I can feel my game has been improved alot during a quit long period of play bad/run bad.
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Old 06-13-2018, 11:39 AM   #21693
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I also tell Mike this when he does his all-in EV calcs, but these don't tell the whole story of how well or bad you're running (only part of the story).

For example, you got AA vs QQ. That's running well.

For example, how many times were you able to get the money in as a massive fave against a fish (as opposed to a solid player). Again, that's running well.

And one of the few things I confirmed from my setmining project: sets lose at a decent clip (about 20% of the sets I saw tabled lost the hand), and of course when you lose with a set you typically lose your stack (and this isn't factored into the overall profitability of setmining nearly enough, imo). Heck, even flopping a set against an overpair you'll still lose by the river about 10% of the time (counting the times he oversets you by then or runner runners a flush/straight). Flopping a set doesn't entitle you to the pot.

Gall-inEVisonlypartofthestoryofhowyou'rerunningG
Sorry, I might not really get your point, did you mean, for instance, I got AA vs QQ is running good, just if you lose, for this time, you run under EV?
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:03 PM   #21694
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The point is if you got AA vs. KK ten times in one session and lost 3/10 instead of 2/10 you’d be saying “gosh how bad do I run to lose 3/10 times there” rather than recognizing how insanely hot you are running to even be in that position.

That’s why I laugh whenever mike brings up his All-In EV nonsense, ignoring the irony that for someone who claims not to understand poker math he thinks he can calculate that number even if he can’t see his opponent’s cards and certainly doesn’t know what his range is in that spot (arguably more important).
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:06 PM   #21695
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The point is if you got AA vs. KK ten times in one session and lost 3/10 instead of 2/10 you’d be saying “gosh how bad do I run to lose 3/10 times there” rather than recognizing how insanely hot you are running to even be in that position.

That’s why I laugh whenever mike brings up his All-In EV nonsense, ignoring the irony that for someone who claims not to understand poker math he thinks he can calculate that number even if he can’t see his opponent’s cards and certainly doesn’t know what his range is in that spot (arguably more important).
Exactly, you are correct on this one. The one you mentioned isnt the only flaw with those calcs either, but the principle you explained is probably the most important one.
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:13 PM   #21696
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I've explained this many times to Mike in his thread. But so long as he's cool with recognizing it's not the be-all end-all measure of how he's running, and so long as it helps him weather the storm (whatever floats your boat, imo), then probably nothing wrong with it. Although it is also eerily similar to what M did and by the sounds of it he doesn't even pokr any more.

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Old 06-13-2018, 12:22 PM   #21697
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Thread title should be changed to *** Official Jealous Haters of Mike Thread ***
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:24 PM   #21698
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I also tell Mike this when he does his all-in EV calcs, but these don't tell the whole story of how well or bad you're running (only part of the story).

For example, you got AA vs QQ. That's running well.

For example, how many times were you able to get the money in as a massive fave against a fish (as opposed to a solid player). Again, that's running well.

And one of the few things I confirmed from my setmining project: sets lose at a decent clip (about 20% of the sets I saw tabled lost the hand), and of course when you lose with a set you typically lose your stack (and this isn't factored into the overall profitability of setmining nearly enough, imo). Heck, even flopping a set against an overpair you'll still lose by the river about 10% of the time (counting the times he oversets you by then or runner runners a flush/straight). Flopping a set doesn't entitle you to the pot.

Gall-inEVisonlypartofthestoryofhowyou'rerunningG
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
The point is if you got AA vs. KK ten times in one session and lost 3/10 instead of 2/10 you’d be saying “gosh how bad do I run to lose 3/10 times there” rather than recognizing how insanely hot you are running to even be in that position.

That’s why I laugh whenever mike brings up his All-In EV nonsense, ignoring the irony that for someone who claims not to understand poker math he thinks he can calculate that number even if he can’t see his opponent’s cards and certainly doesn’t know what his range is in that spot (arguably more important).
I can understand your point, I don't see myself 100% agree with it.

For instance,

I played a 4.5 hours session maybe a month ago, I have AA 3 times in 2-5 table.

First 2, I raise preflop for $20, everyone fold, and I make $7 each.

The 3rd time, I straddle utg with AAh, fold all the way to sb raise to 35 (with only 400ish stack), bb fold, I just call. Flop J97hh, he bet 40, I call. Turn 4o, he bet 100, I push him allin, he call with his last $250 more. River is 8, he shows KTo river a straight.

I had AA 3 times in less than 150 hands for the entire session, this is really run well, but really won the minimum, and lost the max for all my AA. I don't see myself make any bad decision unless result oriented. How do you think about this session, do I run well or bad?
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:29 PM   #21699
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Never in my life have I had a poker session where I thought "I run bad" or "I ran bad". If this is really what you is going through your mind then you are thinking about the wrong things.
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:35 PM   #21700
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Not to derail thread, but your flat in a folded-to-the-SB-vs-Straddle situation is pretty arguable.

The point is there is *much* more to running good vs running bad than all-in EV calcs (plus whether you can even do a very good job of doing all-in EV calcs if you don't see your opponents hand in the cases you win).

And to be clear, I'm not hating on Mike for doing this. If it helps him mentally get thru the tough times then I don't see it as being a bad thing to do; whatever works (and it's different for everyone).

GcluelessrungoodnoobG
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