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Old 05-29-2018, 01:56 AM   #21526
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Probably mentioned somewhere in this 861 page thread but let's talk about this again - biggest 1/3 downswing and worst 1/3 session! Go!

Biggest downswing for me is ~1500 over 400 hours of 1/3. Pretty close to it now and I'm sure I'm due for one that's double that before I hit 1k hours at this limit. Worst 1/3 session is -700. My main game is 300 max although I've played maybe 100 hours of 500 max.
Your downswing lasted 400 hours or that's the total number of hours you've logged so far?

I have never played 1|3, but my worst downswing at 1|2 was $2689 which I am technically still in since I stopped playing 1|2. I had two others of about $2000 and $2400. These are all within 930 logged hours of 1|2.

My worst downswing at 2|5 was $7634 and I've had two others of about $7k within 2k hours.
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Old 05-29-2018, 06:31 AM   #21527
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Your downswing lasted 400 hours or that's the total number of hours you've logged so far?
Nah that's total hours I logged at 1/3 although it's probably closer to 450 now. I'm just getting out of a $1300 downswing that lasted less than 50 hours. Although this is since last May when I reset my records since I think I became more of a winning player. I definitely had some prolonged break even stretches at 1/2 in previous years.

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
1/3 has been much kinder to me, variance-wise. The game is much more ABC than the gamble-fest at 1/1, and thus much lower StdDev.
This is probably the biggest reason why my downswings have been so mild so far. I mainly play in passive limp fest games where either I'd be the only one really raising preflop or I'd be one of two people. No one really bluffs on turns and rivers too - if they bet big they usually have it. So I don't have to really react to aggression and when I do it's usually just a correct fold. A lot of my big losing sessions are the results of bad beats, legit coolers such as aces vs a set in a big 3 bet pot where folding would be lol, and thin value gone wrong.
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Old 05-29-2018, 08:39 AM   #21528
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Man these swings make my $1400 downswing at 1/2 seem like amateur hour. I got almost all of that back in one session too.
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Old 05-29-2018, 08:41 AM   #21529
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Even ABC games can be swingy. Nothing makes you question everything you knew about poker more than having AK miss the flop 20 times in a row while having your cbets called every time.
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Old 05-29-2018, 08:43 AM   #21530
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Originally Posted by Koss View Post
Man these swings make my $1400 downswing at 1/2 seem like amateur hour. I got almost all of that back in one session too.
$1400 is nothing regarding downswings so yeah Only 7 buyins at 1/2.

My friend lost about that amount just running into unavoidable huge coolers being set over setted 7 times in a row during a 2 weeks span, and being on the wrong side every single time.
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Old 05-29-2018, 08:44 AM   #21531
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Even ABC games can be swingy. Nothing makes you question everything you knew about poker more than having AK miss the flop 20 times in a row while having your cbets called every time.
Absolutely agree. Its a crazy feeling when you go into that territory.
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Old 05-29-2018, 10:42 AM   #21532
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Actually, every single day I made sure that I savored the great run because I knew when it ended I would miss it greatly. I know how bad the bad runs feel and I wanted to make sure that great run felt just as good.
Would you mind providing your results during your 20 day hot streak and then since? I know you have made some comments that variance is sometimes overrated in this form so I'm just curious the extent of your downswing and how extreme or mild it has been.
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Old 05-29-2018, 10:57 AM   #21533
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As an infrequent poster in this thread, I do know the general rule of thumb espoused is that 10bbs+ an hour is "crushing" but I was hoping for a little more nuance. Specifically if (insert your favorite pro/best player) played 1/2 exclusively and only Friday and Saturday nights in a $400 capped game with most stacks between $250 and $300 , what do you think his long-term winrate would be?

I feel like in this thread people just leave it at 10 BB's + an hour is crushing without examining what is truly possible. I'll confess that I'm currently on a 110-hour heater after a 80 hour slight downswing period and probably have some irrational euphoria thinking that for a pro (who is obviously ridiculously better than I) 25bbs an hour would be possible. Thoughts??
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Old 05-29-2018, 11:16 AM   #21534
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I cant go that way in speculation. But I can tell u that i have a pal who plays full time. He is not super creative or "feared at the table". But he plays very well. Has no major leaks that I could see - after playing hundreds of hours with him. Never tilts. In other words rock solid. his w/r is between 30 and 35 per hour at 2/5.

This should demonstrate how hard it is to get 10. This dude is a solid pro and he is significantly less than 10. 10+ is doable (in normal games) but it aint ez.
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Old 05-29-2018, 11:48 AM   #21535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
As an infrequent poster in this thread, I do know the general rule of thumb espoused is that 10bbs+ an hour is "crushing" but I was hoping for a little more nuance. Specifically if (insert your favorite pro/best player) played 1/2 exclusively and only Friday and Saturday nights in a $400 capped game with most stacks between $250 and $300 , what do you think his long-term winrate would be?

I feel like in this thread people just leave it at 10 BB's + an hour is crushing without examining what is truly possible. I'll confess that I'm currently on a 110-hour heater after a 80 hour slight downswing period and probably have some irrational euphoria thinking that for a pro (who is obviously ridiculously better than I) 25bbs an hour would be possible. Thoughts??
Ha, don't make me dig up my arguments from a few months ago in this thread that even dared questioned what is considered crushing and attainable, especially at the lowest limit rake traps. Don't think (???) anyone has ever even posted a winrate much north of 10bb+ over any non-trivial sample size at the lowest stakes in this thread (maybe Squiddy, but even that was mostly at a level above the rake trap stakes).

GcluelesswinratenoobG
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Old 05-29-2018, 03:24 PM   #21536
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I cant go that way in speculation. But I can tell u that i have a pal who plays full time. He is not super creative or "feared at the table". But he plays very well. Has no major leaks that I could see - after playing hundreds of hours with him. Never tilts. In other words rock solid. his w/r is between 30 and 35 per hour at 2/5.

This should demonstrate how hard it is to get 10. This dude is a solid pro and he is significantly less than 10. 10+ is doable (in normal games) but it aint ez.
Maybe I'm missing something but it sounds like he's playing ABC and leaving money on the table. ABC poker will result is maybe 6 or 7 bb/hr which is exactly what your friend is winning. It will also lead to low variance and mild downswings which probably explains why he doesn't tilt.

But I'm very confident that it will NEVER win 10bb/hr over any sample GG would consider large enough even at 1/2 or 1/3, never mind 2/5. The non-ABC plays that are slightly +EV but controversial or too "creative" are the plays that push the win rate to 10.
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:09 PM   #21537
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So are folks in basic agreement that it is unlikely that even the best players in the world playing 1/2 in great conditions (somewhat deep, Friday/Saturday nights) would not be able to win a whole lot more than 10bbs/hour?
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:31 PM   #21538
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River Rat. You are missing the point. The point is that a solid pro who has no big leaks is only winning 6-7 bb per hour. I know exactly what it takes to win 10 bigs. And I agree 100% what he does is never going to get 10 bb per hr. But the fact is what the guy that wins 6-7bb per hour does is better than about 99% of his player pool
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:37 PM   #21539
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
River Rat. You are missing the point. The point is that a solid pro who has no big leaks is only winning 6-7 bb per hour. I know exactly what it takes to win 10 bigs. And I agree 100% what he does is never going to get 10 bb per hr. But the fact is what the guy that wins 6-7bb per hour does is better than about 99% of his player pool
This +1.

You also need to take into account that a player like this never tilts away buyins. He never loses his mental shyt during a wild drinking game all nighter when the biggest whale sucks out on him over and over again for 4-5 buyins.

Those aspects contributes huge to the longterm winrate also, wich is easy to forget.
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:40 PM   #21540
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Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
So are folks in basic agreement that it is unlikely that even the best players in the world playing 1/2 in great conditions (somewhat deep, Friday/Saturday nights) would not be able to win a whole lot more than 10bbs/hour?
If you exclusively play in 1/2 games during weekend nights or holidays with the best conditions,deep stacks and does everything correctly (being a total crusher in every aspect of the game), yes i will say its doable to get above 10 blinds pr hour.

But it is hard to do, and like Squid said its only an insanely small percentage of the total playerpool that is capable of achieving the very best winrates over a meaningful big samplesize.
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:43 PM   #21541
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(Friday/Saturday nights)
And I've argued this in this thread as well (a year or two ago?), but in many rooms this idea (i.e. that Friday/Saturday nights are way more action than any other time) is also a highly overrated myth as well.

Gime,yoursmaydifferG
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:48 PM   #21542
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Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
So are folks in basic agreement that it is unlikely that even the best players in the world playing 1/2 in great conditions (somewhat deep, Friday/Saturday nights) would not be able to win a whole lot more than 10bbs/hour?
I'm not really going to agree with that. Im 100% confidant that I can beat 1/2 for 15BBs+. That's without playing super deep and only on Fri/Sat nights. If I can do it others can do it. You just never see it because anyone who can do it, has already moved up. I think a top notch 2/5 or higher player who plays 1/2 in good conditions could approach 20BBs (that's if they can adjust to lower stakes and not try to play every hand cuz its only a couple bucs. Thats harder than it sounds when you play down in stakes).

Now, once you get to 2/5 or higher, its very very hard to reach or break 10BBs.
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:54 PM   #21543
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If you go on a 20 session losing streak you have to wear an avatar of my choosing.

Gpostdownswingresultsforlols,imo!G
Losing streak over at 5. In your face, GG!!
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Old 05-29-2018, 05:19 PM   #21544
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Although beating most 1/2 for 10bbs is not that common, I can guarantee you “the best players in the world” can crush 1/2 for 15+bbs/hr. Esspecially In “perfect conditions” and I Lynne playing fri/sat night
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Old 05-29-2018, 05:30 PM   #21545
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Losing streak over at 5. In your face, GG!!
Stealing the blinds on the first hand and racking up doesn't count, imo.

ETA: Serious question: why you no post some long time giraffes for all of us to lol / awe at?

GlolzG
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Old 05-29-2018, 06:03 PM   #21546
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Stealing the blinds on the first hand and racking up doesn't count, imo.

ETA: Serious question: why you no post some long time giraffes for all of us to lol / awe at?

GlolzG
I have problems figuring out how to post pics. Ill see if I can figure it out.
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Old 05-29-2018, 06:30 PM   #21547
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Maybe I'm missing something but it sounds like he's playing ABC and leaving money on the table.
Playing abc is not leaving money on the table when you are playing a 9 or 10 handed no fold equity game. Especially with 2-3 short stacks. Every live player's dream should be to attain ABC perfection.

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
River Rat. You are missing the point. The point is that a solid pro who has no big leaks is only winning 6-7 bb per hour. I know exactly what it takes to win 10 bigs. And I agree 100% what he does is never going to get 10 bb per hr. But the fact is what the guy that wins 6-7bb per hour does is better than about 99% of his player pool
If this godforsaken thread is ever locked, let this be the last post
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Old 05-29-2018, 06:34 PM   #21548
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This is all of my 1/2 hours. I realize its not a huge sample but Ill never get a huge sample since I play mostly 2/5. There's no significant streaks of run good or run bad. Based on that and my extensive experience in other stakes, Im sure this is sustainable even though if a newbie posted a 650 hour sample he would get told that the sample size is too small to means anything. Feel free to say the same to me. About half of these hours are played during the weekday daytime. The breakdown is about $25/hr for weekday daytime hours and $42/hr for weekend and evening hours.


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Old 05-29-2018, 06:46 PM   #21549
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Ive posted longer term graphs in the past. This one is 2/5 games played since Nov 1, 2017 when I made some significant adjustments to my game after playing a good amount of 1/2 in the fall of 2017 and working on some things. Ive also gotten much better at double barrelling and bluffing in general which has been a major focus point for me the past 500 hours.

The steep incline around the 300 hour mark corresponds with a few things. My increased emphasis on playing more aggro post flop, more bluffing, the buyin being increased to 200BBs and some ridiculous God Mode poker.

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Old 05-29-2018, 06:54 PM   #21550
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Stealing the blinds on the first hand and racking up doesn't count, imo.

ETA: Serious question: why you no post some long time giraffes for all of us to lol / awe at?

GlolzG
It was a 3 1/2 hr, $550 win. Hopefully that counts. although I won $750 in 1 hand and lost $200 the rest of the time.

PS..I lied..if you look at the graph above, it was 3 hrs and 22 mins and a $549 win.
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