Quote:
Down $4k over 50 hours at 1/2? You've got bigger problems on your hands than variance.
And you're admittedly playing subpar? Pumping the brakes with less than 50 hours of play? If you're a winning player and are at all invested in your poker results/income, you would just put in more volume (both on and off the tables).
1/2 and 2/5 are both "Wow this is so easy" games.
Your post doesn't have much to do with bankroll management and more to do with tilt/mental game/and just venting your beat to us.
-4k in 50 hours is easily possible for a winning player. I've gone -3k in less than that winning ~ 12BB/hr in 1/2. I've had multiple nights where I lost 2k due to pure runbad. In 1/2 games. It really depends how you play and how your player pool is. If you nit it up it's less likely to happen. If you fire lots of big bluffs, stack off relatively light, etc., swings are bigger.
Granted the probability of running that bad over 50 hours is very low, but what people seem not to consider is
A) You have tons of 50 hour stretches over 7 years, presumably. Typical player playing 1k hours a year would have 140 such 50 hour stretches.
B) There is a sampling bias when we look at results posted online due to observation selection effects, namely that people with unusually good or bad results are more likely to post them. Even if we say "odds of that happening are 1/x with x super low", are we taking into account just how many people play poker, and that it's the ones with more extreme results who are more likely to post in this thread?
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As for your last statement his post has more to do with tilt/mental game/etc. that may or may not be true and he could well be spewing, but the knee-jerk reaction that running bad = playing bad is just false.