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Old 03-03-2019, 04:52 PM   #23226
DK Barrel
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Barbero View Post
Does anyone track win rate difference at 1/2 wiith and without rake?

I'm playing a home game with no rake or jackpot drop. Although I have no where near a real sample to determine my win rate I'm curious how I'd convert my win rate if I were comparing it to a casino game (10% up to $5 with a $1 jackpot drop.)

I only have 30 hours and my win rate is around $20/hr. Trying to figure out if that is a real $12/hr or what.
It's not really worth comparing. The rake is a condition of any given game, just like the buyin structure and (most importantly) the player pool.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:53 PM   #23227
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Barbero View Post
Does anyone track win rate difference at 1/2 wiith and without rake?

I'm playing a home game with no rake or jackpot drop. Although I have no where near a real sample to determine my win rate I'm curious how I'd convert my win rate if I were comparing it to a casino game (10% up to $5 with a $1 jackpot drop.)

I only have 30 hours and my win rate is around $20/hr. Trying to figure out if that is a real $12/hr or what.
you mentioned it but honestly there's just no point thinking about gleaning anything out of 30 hours. there's not a huge amount to be gleaned from 300 hours. there just isn't. just enjoy having a home game with no rake and try to win as much money as you can. The single best thing at home games apart from no rake, is the small player pool...so you can really work hard on taking notes on players and then adjusting to them and exploiting them.

I will say that my casino (which has very high rake), estimates between $280-300 an hour comes off the table in rake. So if we divide that by 9, it means we must beat the game by between $31 and $34 an hour to break even. So at least in my case, all other things being equal (which they never are) I would expect my win rate to be $31-$34 higher at a home game of the same stake
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Old 03-03-2019, 05:06 PM   #23228
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
you mentioned it but honestly there's just no point thinking about gleaning anything out of 30 hours. there's not a huge amount to be gleaned from 300 hours.
Oh yeah I get anything under 1000 is pretty meaningless. I was just wondering if there is an easy way to convert as my state is looking at allowing casinos next year and an Indian tribe is wanting to open one 30 min from my house.

In my experience from living in Florida when they started spreading no limit the home games died. So my expectation is that the home games will die off when/if the casino opens.
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Old 03-03-2019, 05:18 PM   #23229
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

the easy way is to calculate average rake per seat at your casino and then deduct that from your home game hourly
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Old 03-04-2019, 01:50 PM   #23230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Barbero View Post
Does anyone track win rate difference at 1/2 wiith and without rake?

I'm playing a home game with no rake or jackpot drop. Although I have no where near a real sample to determine my win rate I'm curious how I'd convert my win rate if I were comparing it to a casino game (10% up to $5 with a $1 jackpot drop.)

I only have 30 hours and my win rate is around $20/hr. Trying to figure out if that is a real $12/hr or what.
I've posted my overall giraffe at 1/3 NL a few pages back.

From 2010 - 2015, the maximum rake was $5 in my game (10%).

In 2016, it increased to $6.

In 2017, it increased to $7.

In 2018, it increased to $8 (although the maximum BI also increased from $300 to $400, not that this makes a big difference if most of the table buys in for less anyways).

I only get about ~550 hours a year in, but I'm pretty sure the increase in rake (along with other things) has had a substantial effect on my winrate, although it is a little difficult to quantify exactly (especially since ups/downs can also be attributed to other things that occur along the way as well, plus just variance). It has definitely had a substantial effect on my strategy (winning big pots preflop where there is no rake is a huge coup, dicking around in small maximum raked pots is mostly a waste of time, etc.).

GcluelessrakenoobG
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Old 03-04-2019, 05:38 PM   #23231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I've posted my overall giraffe at 1/3 NL a few pages back.

From 2010 - 2015, the maximum rake was $5 in my game (10%).

In 2016, it increased to $6.

In 2017, it increased to $7.

In 2018, it increased to $8 (although the maximum BI also increased from $300 to $400, not that this makes a big difference if most of the table buys in for less anyways).

I only get about ~550 hours a year in, but I'm pretty sure the increase in rake (along with other things) has had a substantial effect on my winrate, although it is a little difficult to quantify exactly (especially since ups/downs can also be attributed to other things that occur along the way as well, plus just variance). It has definitely had a substantial effect on my strategy (winning big pots preflop where there is no rake is a huge coup, dicking around in small maximum raked pots is mostly a waste of time, etc.).

GcluelessrakenoobG
Not if you know what youre doing and you have a skill advantage over your opponents.

I may play 10 small-medium pots in the $60-$150 range (most of which I raised preflop and they never get to showdown) during a session that you would've folded preflop. Over many sessions, Im going to win more of those 10 extra pots per session than I lose and I'm going to tend to win the bigger ones and lose the smaller ones, resulting in lot of extra profit.

That's why good LAGs win more than good TAGs. You just don't want to put in the effort to figure out how to play like this...which is totally fine but I wish you would stop saying it cant be done or is a waste of time.
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Old 03-04-2019, 06:06 PM   #23232
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well, I did qualify it with "mostly". And with that I mostly mean to playing in position and choosing your spots wisely.

If you're just splashing around in all these multiway pots from every position, you're really going to need a *massive* advantage over your opponents in these rake killing small pots, imo.

GbutIdigress:winrates!G
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Old 03-04-2019, 10:15 PM   #23233
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
most people in LA have insane amounts of money? gee everytime i ever walk into any store, or down the street, or on the bus i see nothing but desperately broke and homeless people sleeping outside, asking for money, and living in dirt poverty. at least about 25-40% of the population.
+1
Don't mistake "LA people" and "LA poker people". Poker population is mostly immigrant based and not the wealthiest group of people in LA. I have played in every LA poker room and I cringe then people think that LA poker rooms attract affluent Hollywood types( not at 5/5 or 5/10 level).
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Old 03-04-2019, 10:59 PM   #23234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Weird argument. Yes LA is poor and scummy. It’s also one of the highest concentrations of wealth in the country.

That’s usually how it works with big metropolises. At least in usa#1.

Very rarely do high stakes games run outside of these types of cities.
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Old 03-05-2019, 06:00 PM   #23235
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Had my first 'downswing', but seemed to recover nicely last month. I tried (for 3 mintues) to overlay dates on the x-axis but couldn't figure it out before getting bored. Hour zero is essentially November 1st, 2018.

I'm going to try and play a little more aggressive this month so might have more variance as well. I switched from 1/2NL to 2/5NL around the 450 hour mark.

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Old 03-05-2019, 11:09 PM   #23236
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice results Marsh. So you’re around 800 hours in right now?
Are you shooting for an hours/earnings goal and is this your job now?
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Old 03-06-2019, 12:21 AM   #23237
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Nice results Marsh. So youíre around 800 hours in right now?
Are you shooting for an hours/earnings goal and is this your job now?
+1 great results
looks like you are pumping out some serious hours
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:16 AM   #23238
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Nice results Marsh. So youíre around 800 hours in right now?
Are you shooting for an hours/earnings goal and is this your job now?
My initial goal was to make $4k per month. I accomplished that the last 2 months which is encouraging, but havenít set anything new. Im still a little nervous about a big downswing, but my style of play generally curbs variance. (At the cost of more profits, I assure you.) Now that I have more confidence that I canít bust my bankroll in a few sessions Iím going to try and open up my game a little and be more aggressive.

Itís currently my only income, but itís starting to cause some life goal issues. (Fun fact: banks donít really care what your credit score is, or your savings, or that you have no debt, if you donít have any provable income.) Wife and I want to get a duplex/fixer upper/rental property so I might have to get a temp job to get a loan.

Iím also not real sure what the tricks are for long term poker players, but Iíve got a list of CPAs to get some info.
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Old 03-07-2019, 08:38 AM   #23239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Right on Marsh.
Obviously feel free to experiment if you want, but remember it’s not always worth trying to fix something that isn’t broken. I had a really solid start to my hours goal and then I stalled out a little bit when I started trying to ramp up my aggression in some spots where I wouldn’t of before. It lead to a reasonably long breakeven stretch and now I’m getting back to the basics and it’s already feeling better again.
Keep us posted and good luck on the banking front.
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Old 03-08-2019, 10:58 PM   #23240
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Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

Hello.

Iím a semi-grinder at our local card club here in MN. In Minnesota, no limit isnít legal, so the game I play is spread limit hold em. Blinds are 1/2, can bet/raise at any point to a maximum of $100 on all streets.

Games are super juicy. Lots of casual players with a wide range in ages. Games are super beatable IMO. Iíve never kept track of my wins or losses, but downloaded the poker income app and have tracked my last 10 sessions. Hereís what it looks like:







From reading various threads from google searches, Iíve read that 10 Big Bets per hour is a good win rate. Is this accurate? I intend to keep tracking my results and can update this thread, but was just wondering what a good win rate is. Iím a winning player overall, but never took tracking my results seriously. Iím wondering if the stats shown in the first screenshot would be considered good; from what Iíve gathered online, it seems that my results seem higher than normal. Iím guessing itís just because of my limited sample size of my last 10 sessions.

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated!
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:24 PM   #23241
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

With such a small sample size you can't get an accurate win rate. Once you log at least 1k hours that's when you will get a better view of your win rate. The more hours you log, the closer you get to your win rate.

For 1/2 anything around $25/hr is a solid win rate. 30+ is when you into the crusher category

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Old 03-09-2019, 12:50 AM   #23242
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

Im at about $15/hr longish term at 1/2. I have been on plenty of heaters like that, but they never last. 1K downswings are commonplace.
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Old 03-09-2019, 01:01 AM   #23243
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

5-10 BB an hour is solidly profitable
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Old 03-09-2019, 04:23 AM   #23244
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

How much is the rake and jackpot drop in this game?
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Old 03-09-2019, 08:02 AM   #23245
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

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Originally Posted by Steve00007 View Post
How much is the rake and jackpot drop in this game?
Max rake is $5 or $6 (believe pot has to get to $100 for that to happen, although I donít know for sure). Jackpot is $1 per hand, I believe.
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Old 03-09-2019, 10:23 AM   #23246
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

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Originally Posted by MNMicroStakesGRNDR View Post
Max rake is $5 or $6 (believe pot has to get to $100 for that to happen, although I donít know for sure). Jackpot is $1 per hand, I believe.


I think the rake is 10% up to $4 and jackpot drop is $2 for all hands that go to the flop
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:28 PM   #23247
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Weird argument. Yes LA is poor and scummy. Itís also one of the highest concentrations of wealth in the country.

Thatís usually how it works with big metropolises. At least in usa#1.

Very rarely do high stakes games run outside of these types of cities.
Do you play on Global? Think I remember seeing your sn on there.
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Old 03-10-2019, 01:20 AM   #23248
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

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Originally Posted by flopshove View Post
I think the rake is 10% up to $4 and jackpot drop is $2 for all hands that go to the flop
That's actually not too bad. Kinda sucks that the $2 jackpot drop comes out automatically on the flop, but in the grand scheme of things this is a pretty solid game rake wise.

I play in a similar game, 10% up to $5 plus $2 for promo drop. The promo drop comes $1 at $10 and the second $1 at $20, no flop no drop. $7 max drop isn't anything to celebrate about, but the game is still ridiculously soft and we've all read about others that pay way more rake than this.
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Old 03-11-2019, 12:32 PM   #23249
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MNMicroStakesGRNDR View Post
From reading various threads from google searches, Iíve read that 10 Big Bets per hour is a good win rate. Is this accurate?
A few pages back I posted some personal giraffes, all over 1000 hour sample sizes, ranging from 4bb/hr to 12bb/hr and everything in-between all within the same 1/3 NL game.

Gyou'lllikelyneverhavean"accurate"ideaofanything,b utgoodluck!G
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:46 PM   #23250
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Re: Whatís a good win rate for live 1/2?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MNMicroStakesGRNDR View Post
From reading various threads from google searches, I’ve read that 10 Big Bets per hour is a good win rate. Is this accurate?
...
I’m wondering if the stats shown in the first screenshot would be considered good; from what I’ve gathered online, it seems that my results seem higher than normal. I’m guessing it’s just because of my limited sample size of my last 10 sessions.
My 2 cents. The reason this thread exists is that it's virtually impossible to get everyone to report accurate win rates to know what's good or bad or normal. There are outliers on both sides and exaggerated results and small samples that can all confuse things. That being said I think it's widely accepted that most poker players are overall losing. So breaking even is already good. Beating the game at 10 BB per hour is even more exclusive and doing very well in my opinion.

Your results are very good but as you've mentioned your sample size is trivial. I'd be cautiously optimistic based on your statements that you feel you've been beating the game for a while and just started to officially measure. When you get to 500 hours or so you'll have a better feel for how close these are to a true win rate. There's a 90% confidence equation you can use in this thread if you're curious but no one will ever know there true win rate. By the time you get 1k or 2k hours of live play in (what many consider a significant live sample) your poker game has evolved and your environment has evolved since the start of the sample rendering your results forever inaccurate. Looking at the magnitude and the trend over time can be helpful to evaluate what is and is not working though. Good luck!
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