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Old 02-27-2018, 02:07 PM   #20976
foldandclose
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Wasn't able to play for about a few weeks due to life

1/2 in 2018
63 hours 45 minutes
+$677
$10.63/hr
5.31bb/hr
Biggest win +$500
Biggest loss -$300
Average $61/session
9/11 ~81%
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Old 02-27-2018, 06:47 PM   #20977
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There aren't a lot of top end players who wouldn't want to move up from 1/2. I understand players who stay at 2/5 or 5/10 depending on game availability, but unless you live in the UK where 1/2 is the main game in most places, and it's in pounds and deeper buyins, there's just no reason for a big winner to stay at those stakes.

The number of winning players whose EV is more than 10bb/hour at 1/2 would be a lot higher than those who've actually played 2k hours.
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Old 02-27-2018, 09:37 PM   #20978
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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post

The number of winning players whose EV is more than 10bb/hour at 1/2 would be a lot higher than those who've actually played 2k hours.
Yeah this is my point exactly. I had like 16bb/hr WR at 1/2 and only made it to 1k hours before I moved up. So I didn't move up till I had ~30k or so, which many would consider is more then needed before jumping to 2/5, thus others with crushing WR's might not even get to 1k hours before moving up.
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Old 02-27-2018, 09:38 PM   #20979
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah that's the main point. By the time anyone who is good enough to win at that winrate at 1/2-1/3 plays 2000 hours, they're already well and truly playing 2/5.
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:29 AM   #20980
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Way less. Nobody who crushes that much reaches 2k hours before moving up.
Again, this can be a by product of game availability in players area. My area used to be a gold mine for higher stakes but now those games are few and far between, semi private and just not as good. 5/10 hardly runs in my local room anymore but 2/5 is very juicy for the most part and very plentiful
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Old 02-28-2018, 05:35 AM   #20981
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Oh for sure, but even then, if somebody was crushing that much, they'd still likely move to a better poker location if that was their main vocation.

So, i suppose the exception would be: somebody who's room does not spread bigger AND somebody who for whatever reason will not move despite knowing they're capping their winnings.
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Old 02-28-2018, 06:14 AM   #20982
NewClintEastwood
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Can I get some love for this 2018 rungood? This is 11 days of 1/2 and 1/3. My friends/family don't play poker but I know you fine folks can appreciate the scale of this rungood!

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Old 02-28-2018, 06:26 AM   #20983
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Sick heat, long may it continue!
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:16 AM   #20984
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Just to play a little Devil's Advocate with my 1/3 NL stats:

First 2000 hours: 9.44 bb/hr with a 70.2% session winrate.

Last 1823 hours: 4.27 bb/hr with a 59.8% session winrate.

But in the end, ya, I'll agree that session winrate is likely meaningless.

GcluelesssessionwinratenoobG
Since you're comparing your own stats, it's likely your session length and criteria for playing a session are similar between the two samples. So, if you are playing the same sorts of sessions for the same amount of time, of course if you win more of them your winrate will be higher.

Comparing win% between players is pointless because one player might play longer sessions on average (which assuming they are both winning players with similar winrates, a higher percentage of the longer sessions should be positive)

You might also have a type of player who likes to book a small win but continues playing while stuck skewing those numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewClintEastwood View Post
Can I get some love for this 2018 rungood? This is 11 days of 1/2 and 1/3. My friends/family don't play poker but I know you fine folks can appreciate the scale of this rungood!

I think making this post jinxes it But I hope not
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:27 AM   #20985
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Re: How many of your live sessions are winning sessions?

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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Since you're comparing your own stats, it's likely your session length and criteria for playing a session are similar between the two samples. So, if you are playing the same sorts of sessions for the same amount of time, of course if you win more of them your winrate will be higher.

Comparing win% between players is pointless because one player might play longer sessions on average (which assuming they are both winning players with similar winrates, a higher percentage of the longer sessions should be positive)

You might also have a type of player who likes to book a small win but continues playing while stuck skewing those numbers.
+1; this articulates what I was trying to say well
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Old 02-28-2018, 12:44 PM   #20986
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Yeah that's the main point. By the time anyone who is good enough to win at that winrate at 1/2-1/3 plays 2000 hours, they're already well and truly playing 2/5.
Maybe. I don't think anybody's true win rate at 1/3 is 17bb/hr, at least as a grinder at normal games.

Again, let's throw out scenarios like, it's an uncapped game and you only play on the weekends.

This is where we talk about massive downswings, and the void and the fact that some go years before running into them and a lucky few go their whole lives. Someone winning at that rate for 1k hours likely has both run good when winning and never had much of a losing stretch.

I'd also add that, at least in my experience and in many places, it's not like there is some huge gulf between the beatablility of 1/3 and 2/5. You do get more people who literally barely know how to play in 1/3, but it's not that common anymore and they buy in for $100. You will have more and better grinders in 2/5 but, at least in LV, you can often avoid them. You're also more likely to find a true whale in 2/5. That is, someone who genuinely DGAF about the money and has no problem blasting off one buy in after another. Saw one last night, in fact. Meanwhile, at 1/3 you'll find more ultra nits who buy in small. Also, rake and tips have much less impact on your rate. Maybe 2bb/hr or so?

Point being, if your true win rate at 1/3 is 17bbs, I'd expect your 2/5 rate to not be very far behind once you get locked in. There are other reasons too. Like, since you were likely a noob at 1/3 you, should continue to improve on your prodigious abilities.

FWIW, I just won about 10-11k in about 10 weeks of 1/2, playing maybe 25 hours a week. I don't really track my results much, so that's an estimate. I WANT to believe I could make 50k/yr working 25 hours a week. Part of me was saying, "you've finally done it! You're now a poker genius!" But I know otherwise.

And again, probably the most compelling reason to me is, nobody else seems to be doing it. There are a lot of people smarter than you or me out there who have PhDs and are adjunct profs making peanuts, or out of work. Lots of Walter White types. They've absorbed texts far more challenging than poker books and training videos. They know that poker exists. So why aren't they picking up their easy money? If non-world class players can make 17bbs/hr, surely many of these people could make 10-12 pretty easily.
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:03 PM   #20987
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And again, probably the most compelling reason to me is, nobody else seems to be doing it. There are a lot of people smarter than you or me out there who have PhDs and are adjunct profs making peanuts, or out of work. Lots of Walter White types. They've absorbed texts far more challenging than poker books and training videos. They know that poker exists. So why aren't they picking up their easy money? If non-world class players can make 17bbs/hr, surely many of these people could make 10-12 pretty easily.
Not rly buying this. A lot of smart people think it's a smart decision to stay away from gambling and poker, and theyre pretty much right. Their time would be better spent working on other areas of life.
Some smart people might realise it's profitable, but aren't money driven / don't like the predatory nature of poker, and get more joy out of being a productive member of society lol.
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:22 PM   #20988
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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
I don't think anybody's true win rate at 1/3 is 17bb/hr, at least as a grinder at normal games.
Yeah, I'm kinda of the same thinking (especially in a 100bb max BI game; if you've got an uncapped game, or maybe playing in some time warp game where absolutely everyone at the table is completely clueless, ok, maybe the sky is the limit). Basically, it's going to take someone posting a non-trivial sample size (and, no, 1000 hours ain't close) at ~17 bb/hr before I'll buy it's possible. This "crushers move up before then" is a bit of a cop out, imo.

There can easily be an outlier who plays loose aggro and runs well over a lol 1000 hour segment. It's simply much tougher to do over a much longer segment.

Gimo,proveotherwiseifyouthinkdifferentlyG
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:33 PM   #20989
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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
Not rly buying this. A lot of smart people think it's a smart decision to stay away from gambling and poker, and theyre pretty much right. Their time would be better spent working on other areas of life.
Some smart people might realise it's profitable, but aren't money driven / don't like the predatory nature of poker, and get more joy out of being a productive member of society lol.
Plus it's not a guaranteed consistent set amount of money you earn. There's no security in your income. There's no benefits, retirement plan, insurance.
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Old 02-28-2018, 02:14 PM   #20990
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Some people don’t work just for the money.
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:12 PM   #20991
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February is in the books. My room raised the max buy in at 2/5 to $1000 on Feb 1st. Results for my first full month playing deeper than a standard 100BB buy in game:

113 hrs 9 mins
$15684
$135.03/hr

Plus 3 hours of 5/10
$1063

My best month ever at $16747

I wont blame you if you dont believe this because honestly I barely believe it myself and I was there.
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:39 PM   #20992
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Thats a nice and very believable heater.
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:03 PM   #20993
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very nice Mike Starr
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:19 PM   #20994
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nice month, Mike!
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:36 PM   #20995
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Nice.
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Old 03-01-2018, 05:58 AM   #20996
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Now that February is in the books, it's about time for an update. I'm pleased to report I went on quite the heater in January in 2/5. In 174 hours, I made 22.5k for a nice $130/hr. February was much less fruitful. I was up and down all month, culminating in a nice session tonight to prevent my first losing month. Final numbers came in at 1.5k over 215 hours for a nice $7/hr, but that does include a 3k loss over 20 hours taking 5/T shots.

Again, I think this illustrates how meaningless these small samples are. I think trying determine your true winrate is a bit of a fool's errand. Ignoring the fact that every lineup is different (meaning your theoretical win rate is diffent in every game), it just takes so many hours to get a large enough sample size to even come to a somewhat reliable estimate. Is 2000 hours enough? Probably not, and even it were, that's a year of grinding full time. Are you the player you were a year ago? I know I'm not.
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Old 03-01-2018, 09:10 AM   #20997
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Now that February is in the books, it's about time for an update. I'm pleased to report I went on quite the heater in January in 2/5. In 174 hours, I made 22.5k for a nice $130/hr. February was much less fruitful. I was up and down all month, culminating in a nice session tonight to prevent my first losing month. Final numbers came in at 1.5k over 215 hours for a nice $7/hr, but that does include a 3k loss over 20 hours taking 5/T shots.

Again, I think this illustrates how meaningless these small samples are. I think trying determine your true winrate is a bit of a fool's errand. Ignoring the fact that every lineup is different (meaning your theoretical win rate is diffent in every game), it just takes so many hours to get a large enough sample size to even come to a somewhat reliable estimate. Is 2000 hours enough? Probably not, and even it were, that's a year of grinding full time. Are you the player you were a year ago? I know I'm not.
So as a rec player that likes to keep stats, should I really focus on any of it if I am only going to get 50-80 hours in each month? Or just keep track of the bankroll to make sure it is moving in the right direction?
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Old 03-01-2018, 10:16 AM   #20998
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You should definitely keep track. Just understand that just because you hit $30/hr this month or $8/hr this month...those arent your true win rates.

I do disagree with most people that you need 1000s of hours to get a handle on your win rate though. I mean sure you will probably never know your exact win rate, but after playing long enough you can get a very good idea within reason what it is...give or take a bit. For example.....It doesnt matter if your win rate is $36 or $39/hr. Being high $30's is a good enough estimate.
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Old 03-01-2018, 01:02 PM   #20999
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Mike, my second 2000 hours (about 180 hours shy of the mark and currently rocking 4.27 bb/hr) will be at a winrate of less than half of my first 2000 hours (where I rocked 9.44 bb/hr), all at the same steaks.

I don't think people have any handle whatsoever on how there are so many things that greatly affect winrates over large sample sizes, none of which we'll ever produce at a lol livehands/lifetime rate.

Ggoodlucktousall,imoG
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Old 03-01-2018, 01:10 PM   #21000
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or we could do a little math, idk
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