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Old 05-06-2019, 04:27 PM   #23726
Lapidator
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

Since you didn't start by describing your poker bankroll and your expense budget, I'm going to go out on a limb and call your chances Slim and None. Slim's not here at the moment, so we'll have to go with None.
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:33 PM   #23727
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

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Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Since you didn't start by describing your poker bankroll and your expense budget, I'm going to go out on a limb and call your chances Slim and None. Slim's not here at the moment, so we'll have to go with None.


Slim is here he just donít care
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:37 PM   #23728
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

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Poker is a crazy game and I wouldnít recommend anyone play it.

Youíre going to get a ton of people coming in here with ďlol sample sizeĒ and they have a point.

My guess is that converting one single winning session into a modest losing session of about -150bb will likely lead to a double digit % drop in your win rate.

Playing poker profitably is a totally attainable reality.

Iím curious, what is the rake in your room? Also, what is the highest game that is running regularly?

What I would advise is to keep playing and studying, build up a massive bankroll, something overkill. Then I would build up some more bankroll. This is all assuming we have about 6-12 months worth of living expenses saved up OR some alternative form of income.

In short, I would not plan to play full time for a few more years
Yeah this exactly. Like I wouldn't advice playing a 1/2 game fulltime without 12k + 6 months living expenses. 2/5 it's probably closer to 30k + 6 months living expenses. And a long documented history of winning.

Here's another issue: The games you play now are usually nights and weekends. These games are softer. When you're playing in a game with 2-3 other guys trying to grind it out, plus a few old guys who don't like risking a lot of money, you'll see that your seat time isn't just worth $X/hr
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:40 PM   #23729
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

How many of your 160-170 hours were played during peak times like Fri/Saturday night? If you were to ever "go pro" a lot more of your hours would be at non peak times where the players are much less bad.

Edit....jdr0317 beat me to it
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:53 PM   #23730
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

A big problem with playing 1/2 full time is that the win rates are very small. So, what happens is a lot of the time you donít have a whole lot of extra scratch to throw in the kitty to enable you to move up stakes while supporting yourself. Getting out of the 1/2 trap is really hard and takes a very long time. I found this out the hard way.
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Old 05-06-2019, 05:10 PM   #23731
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

Lots of great info here guys, thanks. Selfishly don't want to get more into my finances, but I have the info I need.
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Old 05-06-2019, 05:14 PM   #23732
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Re: What chance would you give my poker ambition?

10bb is crushing the game and yet you're making mostly 10 GBP per hour which is peanuts in London.

Your winrate may be (much) lower in reality, will probably drop as you move to 1/2 and almost certainly will go down if you start playing games higher than 1/2 which is what you have to aim for otherwise you might as well start a career collecting shopping trolleys because it's a better decision.

Get a real job, study and play poker on the side and switch to poker when it's financially better than your day job. If you don't have the drive to do that, you won't 'make it' in poker anyway. It's very difficult to play poker well enough to consistently out earn a proper job in a place like London, which is a compelling argument for not doing it as a living IMO.

EDIT

Average salary in London is 35K GBP, so basically 18 GBP an hour. Let's break that down, on that salary, you do pay tax (bad) but you get paid if you phone it in now and again, you are guaranteed to get paid, you get benefits like sick days and pension plans, you get paid holidays and I'll say it again, you are guaranteed to get paid.

This is what an Executive Assistant gets paid, which is a glorified secretary. Someone who is capable of playing poker for a living can out-earn a secretary if they apply themselves.

Last edited by WereBeer; 05-06-2019 at 05:21 PM.
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Old 05-06-2019, 05:58 PM   #23733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just wondering what are yalls thought on short buying. I play in an uncapped 1/2 with multiple stacks of 300-1000bb on the table at a time. The mimimum buy in is 100$ and i have been buying in for 100-150$ at a time. Right now i have 1500 dedicated to poker. What do you suggest i buy in for?

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Old 05-06-2019, 10:30 PM   #23734
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Depends on your skill set and if the bigger stacks adjust. I will say that your chances of busting are high, whether you buy in short or not, given your roll and especially what sounds like a probably rather wild game.
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Old 05-08-2019, 06:28 PM   #23735
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by m0mmy View Post
Just wondering what are yalls thought on short buying. I play in an uncapped 1/2 with multiple stacks of 300-1000bb on the table at a time. The mimimum buy in is 100$ and i have been buying in for 100-150$ at a time. Right now i have 1500 dedicated to poker. What do you suggest i buy in for?

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Buy max unless losing the 1500 has serious results, in which case you don't really have enough money anyway.

I'd go 500 at least. In these kinds of games a huge chunk of your winrate comes from playing deep vs guys who don't adjust strategy for stack size.

You can try 100 dollar BI but my guess is a good player will make less than half what he would buying max.
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Old 05-08-2019, 08:07 PM   #23736
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Buy max unless losing the 1500 has serious results, in which case you don't really have enough money anyway.

I'd go 500 at least. In these kinds of games a huge chunk of your winrate comes from playing deep vs guys who don't adjust strategy for stack size.

You can try 100 dollar BI but my guess is a good player will make less than half what he would buying max.
this is such horrible advice.

Obviously they are underolled, hence why they're asking what to do.

The suggestions should be either
A) buy in for $100, set a stoploss
B) Don't play

Obviously somebody who buys in deeper will have a higher hourly, but you can't do that when you're busto. Need to account for RoR
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Old 05-08-2019, 09:21 PM   #23737
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
this is such horrible advice.



Obviously they are underolled, hence why they're asking what to do.



The suggestions should be either

A) buy in for $100, set a stoploss

B) Don't play



Obviously somebody who buys in deeper will have a higher hourly, but you can't do that when you're busto. Need to account for RoR
+1
I've been slightly worried about my hourly but then i think about what my hourly would be if i lost my entire roll.

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Old 05-08-2019, 09:40 PM   #23738
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
this is such horrible advice.

Obviously they are underolled, hence why they're asking what to do.

The suggestions should be either
A) buy in for $100, set a stoploss
B) Don't play

Obviously somebody who buys in deeper will have a higher hourly, but you can't do that when you're busto. Need to account for RoR
C) buy in for $100, don't set a stop-loss.

FWIW, the correct answer depends on unknown variables. Buying in for more than the minimum could be reasonable.
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:42 AM   #23739
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If 1500 dollars is actual ruin, you should not be playing live poker.

Building a roll in a 1/2 game is already difficult. Why cripple yourself buying short? Yeah there's an increased risk of "ruin" but let's be honest, this probably amounts to doing some part time work for a bit. Buying short will prolong how long it takes to move up. 1/2 players are bad 50BB deep, they are really bad 200BB deep, and they will virtually give you their stacks 500BB deep.

It comes down to your risk tolerance and how you define "ruin." There is a balancing act between risk management and moving up stakes aggressively and I think it's a mistake to just take the path of minimum risk, but do what you want.
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Old 05-09-2019, 05:17 AM   #23740
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If there is no br concern and if you think you are the best or second best player at the table you should buy in for the maximum up to the point that it effects your play. "Don't be scared money" is easy to say but pretty much everyone is scared money at a certain point.

Given your serious br concern you should only buy in for $150 at at time and hit and run the table. I don't think you should be sitting with $300.

If you're not a winner in the game this wont help.
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Old 05-09-2019, 05:02 PM   #23741
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by m0mmy View Post
Just wondering what are yalls thought on short buying. I play in an uncapped 1/2 with multiple stacks of 300-1000bb on the table at a time. The mimimum buy in is 100$ and i have been buying in for 100-150$ at a time. Right now i have 1500 dedicated to poker. What do you suggest i buy in for?

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Personally I'd rather have at least 80 BB, preferably 100 BB. Buying in short in a deep game can be ok if you're good at short stack but if you have an edge and 7.5 BI if you go with 100 BB why not give yourself a little more room to operate? As browni said there are many more variables that could change the correct answer but in general I'd prefer sitting more than 50 BB in a deep game as I suspect opening sizes / straddles / and other things could make the 50 BB feel like even less in a deep game.
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Old 05-09-2019, 05:09 PM   #23742
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If the game is sufficiently deep and actiony, you're probably getting it in (effectively) preflop anyway. In that situation the extra 20BB isn't really going to help you too much. It just reduces the number of preflop shots that you can take to try to win a stack to play with.

Did that in a PLO game for a while, buy in for $100, wait for a spot to pot or re-pot it pre with a good hand multiway. "Flip" with an advantage and dead money for a quadruple-up. Then play 'normally'.
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Old 05-09-2019, 10:30 PM   #23743
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zica View Post
If there is no br concern and if you think you are the best or second best player at the table you should buy in for the maximum up to the point that it effects your play. "Don't be scared money" is easy to say but pretty much everyone is scared money at a certain point.

Given your serious br concern you should only buy in for $150 at at time and hit and run the table. I don't think you should be sitting with $300.

If you're not a winner in the game this wont help.
You show me someone who doesnít think this and Iíll show you a winning poker player.
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Old 05-10-2019, 06:01 AM   #23744
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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You show me someone who doesnít think this and Iíll show you a winning poker player.
Thinking you suck at poker makes you good?
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Old 05-10-2019, 08:36 AM   #23745
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Thinking you suck at poker makes you good?
It was more of a philosophical statement describing the machismo attitude of the poker world. It's generally difficult to admit mistakes, learn from them, and improve if you already 'know' you're good.
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Old 05-10-2019, 10:45 AM   #23746
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It was more of a philosophical statement describing the machismo attitude of the poker world. It's generally difficult to admit mistakes, learn from them, and improve if you already 'know' you're good.
I dunno Marsh, I disagree. I think you can be pretty objective about where your skills stand on most tables without having a bloated or delusional sense of how your skills stack up. Knowing that youíre a good player doesnít necessarily mean that youíre trying to run over the table all the time. It usually means simple things like having a sound opening range, or not being a mindless nit, or actually having a fold button in tough spots that call for it.
Iím usually pretty confident that Iím either the best or second best player at the table, but I also donít think that Iím a complete crusher or in the top 1% of players. I also know that Iím a solid winning player, but it doesnít mean that Iím arrogant, it just means Iím fairly objective about where my skills stand in relation to standard Vís. I think thatís totally possible and fine.
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Old 05-10-2019, 11:11 AM   #23747
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So, I'm re-reading Jonahan Little's book " Stratagies for Beating Small Stakes Poker Cash Games"

He states that most of his research was done playing $1-2 at Borgata in Atlantic City.

He made $ 35 / Hour over a "decent" period of time.

I realize he's a great player, but do you think this amount is sustainable ? While most people crushing $ 1-2 at this rate would move up to higher stakes, I still have a hard time believing that $35 / hour at this level can be maintained.

Comments ?
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Old 05-10-2019, 11:47 AM   #23748
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Have you people never heard of the short-stack advantage? Short-stacking in a deep game is a fine way to play within one's bankroll.

Head-up it doesn't matter, but in a full ring game a short-stacker can use the larger stack sizes of the other players as a weapon: If you call my raise, you can't win very much, but you can lose a lot if one of the players behind you with a big stack and an uncapped range wakes up with a hand. Playing a short stack gives a player a shot of fold equity that other players don't get.

Moreover, short-stackers are better able to realize their hands' equity, because they can get it in on an early street more often than big stacks profitably can.

The risk is that when you double up or more, then you are no longer playing a short stack. You might in fact be playing with a significant fraction of your bankroll on the table, and thus be compelled by bankroll management principles to pick up.

It is true that if a good player with sufficiently large bankroll is better off playing a deep stack than a short one, because their upside is so much bigger. But not everyone has a giant bankroll. Buying into an uncapped 1-2 game for $100 is a legitimate and potentially profitable way of playing a $1500 roll.
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Old 05-10-2019, 11:50 AM   #23749
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
I dunno Marsh, I disagree. I think you can be pretty objective about where your skills stand on most tables without having a bloated or delusional sense of how your skills stack up. Knowing that youíre a good player doesnít necessarily mean that youíre trying to run over the table all the time. It usually means simple things like having a sound opening range, or not being a mindless nit, or actually having a fold button in tough spots that call for it.
Iím usually pretty confident that Iím either the best or second best player at the table, but I also donít think that Iím a complete crusher or in the top 1% of players. I also know that Iím a solid winning player, but it doesnít mean that Iím arrogant, it just means Iím fairly objective about where my skills stand in relation to standard Vís. I think thatís totally possible and fine.
I hear what you're saying. Perhaps I'm just on the grumpy end of the spectrum and get turned off by players who try and brag or self define as the best. The other thing about this discussion is that being 'good' or 'the best at my table' is too nebulous of a statement. There are so many factors to being successful that it's hard to get on the same page with someone else.

I'd rather have a consistent, lower, win rate and good bankroll management than be a crusher who can't stay out of the pit. Are they better than me? Absolutely. Sort of. Maybe not?

This is probably digressing and I'm sure been argued before. Just my 2 cents.
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Old 05-10-2019, 12:15 PM   #23750
m0mmy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

[QUOTE=AlanBostick;55108531]

The risk is that when you double up or more, then you are no longer playing a short stack. You might in fact be playing with a significant fraction of your bankroll on the table, and thus be compelled by bankroll management principles to pick up.

What percentage of my bankroll would you say is too much to have on the table?

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