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Old 09-25-2015, 01:51 AM   #10976
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Winrate changes a lot depending on the area you play at.

I crush my local games but would probably be breakeven or slightly losing in a last vegas casino longterm, in fact I wouldnt even play in those shthole even if it was my only poker option, so boring, fuark.
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Old 09-25-2015, 04:01 AM   #10977
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm really happy with my winrate of 7bb/h, but I play at MDL which has been a really great room for action at 2/5. I'm not really sure how the action works outs on a more broad spectrum, but I feel that I'm crushing the game, and could make very little changes to make more.

I'm not sure how much the absolute best players could make, but 10bb/hr sounds high for 2/5+. 1/2 that could be achievable.
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Old 09-25-2015, 05:35 AM   #10978
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuppa View Post
I'm really happy with my winrate of 7bb/h, but I play at MDL which has been a really great room for action at 2/5. I'm not really sure how the action works outs on a more broad spectrum, but I feel that I'm crushing the game, and could make very little changes to make more.

I'm not sure how much the absolute best players could make, but 10bb/hr sounds high for 2/5+. 1/2 that could be achievable.
Congratulations! You're less than 3bb/Hr worse than the best players in the world!
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Old 09-25-2015, 05:43 AM   #10979
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You guys made the winrate argument really complicated.

It's a zero sum game if you include everyone not just the guys playing poker. Say 1 guy makes 10BB/hour at $2-5. In a 9 handed game, at 1 table:

Dealer makes $30/hr.
House makes $100/hr.
Waitress makes $10/hr.
Food runner makes $2/hr.
Chip runner makes $1/hr.
Floor makes $1/hr.
Player 1 makes $A/hr.
Player 2 makes $B/hr.
Player 3 makes $C/hr.
Player 4 makes $D/hr.
Player 5 makes $E/hr.
Player 6 makes $F/hr.
Player 7 makes $G/hr.
Player 8 makes $H/hr.
Player 9 makes $50/hr.

We have $194/hour being made. So we need $194/hour being lost.

A + B + C + D + E + F + G + H = -$194.
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:06 AM   #10980
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That only works if 50bb/Hr guy wins that after rake
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:15 AM   #10981
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Is there any other time?
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:49 AM   #10982
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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
Is there any other time?
There is when you are also deducting rake in the same calculation
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Old 09-25-2015, 06:52 AM   #10983
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There is when you are also deducting rake in the same calculation
Ignore me
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:15 AM   #10984
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

holy ****, i hope some of you don't do your own taxes...
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:26 AM   #10985
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Three people check into a hotel room. The clerk says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the clerk realizes the bill should only be $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 to return to the guests. On the way to the room, the bellhop realizes that he cannot divide the money equally. As the guests didn't know the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 and keep $2 as a tip for himself. Each guest got $1 back: so now each guest only paid $9; bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop has $2. And $27 + $2 = $29 so, if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?
Spoiler:
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:39 AM   #10986
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BigSkip View Post
Go home winrate thread. You're drunk.

Wow - this is the best summary
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:46 AM   #10987
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
How many drunk idiots stumble onto a 0.01/0.02 table and punt off stacks like they're playing hands of blackjack again?
More like how many winning 1/2 players are playing 24 tables at once at 90 hands/hr?

I don't think there are any more fish overall live or online, but I would bet winners/BE players are playing more hands online overall than fish, which is effectively the same as outnumbering fish.
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:50 AM   #10988
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Bellhop question is so great

(but damn it people, the WR sum + rake + tips = LR sum is so simple and factual quit trying to complicate it and ****ing up the math in the process)

Next up for debate - who pays the vig on a sports bet? (please don't start that debate.. I am joking)
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:04 AM   #10989
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The complication is that LR is actually a negative number, so the math is really:

WR sum + rake + tips + LR sum = 0

Or simpler

Rates sum + rake + tip = 0

Or if you want to think of rake and tips as individual

(Net home + player's rake paid + player's tips paid) sum = 0
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:05 AM   #10990
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry - don't know to write a "sigma" symbol to make it look like math class
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:06 AM   #10991
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So pre rake and pre tips, losing players AND winning players perform better.. duh.. if I didn't throw money out of my stack I do better - whether or not I win or lose is inconsequential
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:22 AM   #10992
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So now in simplest and seemingly obvious understanding

Loss rate totals are much greater than win rate totals because of rake and tips... so that needs to be accounted for by either having many more losing players than winners at a table or huge losing amounts. Both happen in practice.

A shallow and tight PREflop player can effectively bound his loss rate - so tables made up of short stacks and tight preflop play are not very beatable in high rake.
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:26 AM   #10993
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

lol @bip! getting sucked into this circle jerk.
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:39 AM   #10994
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Three people check into a hotel room. The clerk says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the clerk realizes the bill should only be $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 to return to the guests. On the way to the room, the bellhop realizes that he cannot divide the money equally. As the guests didn't know the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 and keep $2 as a tip for himself. Each guest got $1 back: so now each guest only paid $9; bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop has $2. And $27 + $2 = $29 so, if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?
Lol
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:43 AM   #10995
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

maybe accounting class should start with an easier problem:

how is everyone's WR affected if it's a time rake?
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:51 AM   #10996
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
lol @bip! getting sucked into this circle jerk.

I held out as long as possible.. but woke up in a mood for pain I guess
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:07 AM   #10997
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

We also went from "tons of player @ LLSNL are winning 10bb/hr" to "nobody @ LLNSL can win 10bb/hr". ... also known as the battle to be wrongest

Thanks to everyone who posts results and congrats to the ones winning. I wish more people post giraffes (even short samples) - just so all readers got a better picture of actual results in the wild.
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:13 AM   #10998
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just so I can be fully mocked - I will post my LLSNL results later.
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Old 09-25-2015, 11:53 AM   #10999
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
Okay, don't worry about people fabricating evidence. I'm not worried about that. I still haven't seen any evidence whatsoever of 10bb/hr being reasonable.

My claim, if you will, is that beating ANY poker game for 40bb/100 is actually laughable, especially with the higher rake in live games.

And yes, if I can see a PI graph of 10bb/hr over 2k+ hours, I'll be the first to eat my words and say it's possible.

I'm hearing all these people say 10bb/hr is the baseline for a crusher, but has anyone actually seen proof of someone do this over a reasonable sample?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
My winrate at 2/5 over 900 hours this year is 56/hr, largest "downswing" was 6k and I attribute that to some overly aggro play and the worst variance I've experienced. 10k+ just seems fathomable, and I've played 2.5k hours lifetime of 2/5 where prior to this year my winrate was in the low 40s

Runbad is a crutch by some. Double check your redline.
Not going to spend the time to find more, especially as most people who post "long term" results post them for the year, and no one I know plays 2K hours in a year, but here's one example of 10+BBs/hour over > 2K hours.

I think you're projecting your Aussie games on the rest of the world. Many of us play at places that allow 200BB buy ins, and of course, the rake is ridic in Oz. 10BB/hr is definitely doable long term in the right markets in the US.
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Old 09-25-2015, 12:40 PM   #11000
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
We also went from "tons of player @ LLSNL are winning 10bb/hr" to "nobody @ LLNSL can win 10bb/hr". ... also known as the battle to be wrongest

Thanks to everyone who posts results and congrats to the ones winning. I wish more people post giraffes (even short samples) - just so all readers got a better picture of actual results in the wild.
/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png

/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png

[IMG]/Users/dan/Desktop/Poker Winnings.png[/IMG]

Dang... I can't figure out the image thing... The line goes up, tho.

Total Hrs 249
Total Winnings 10758
$/Hr 43.20481928
Hands Played (30/hr) 7470

1/2: 70% Hours, 60% Winnings
1/3: 30% Hours, 40% Winnings
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