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Old 08-15-2018, 05:31 PM   #22226
sisyphusonroids
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I personally think you should start focusing up on improving your game right now with the plan of being ready to take pokes at 2/5 within the next 6 months so you will be fully prepped to destroy the boston 2/5 games when the casino opens - cuz its gunna be a bonanza
Hey squid. You’ve been around the game for many new markets opening so I’d appreciate your thoughts on this... they combo hype of the casino/poker room/market of the Boston harbor encore is unprecedented as far as I k ow. Clearly, there will be lots of new/weak players. But from the talk I’ve heard, there will be a mass influx of pros planning to move/pounce as well. To an extent that no new Poker market has ever seen. Do you think this fact will offset the obvious benefits of the new market?
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Old 08-15-2018, 06:33 PM   #22227
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there will obviously be an influx of pros but the action will be absolutely fantastic. I think the games are going to be off the proverbial hook there for quite some time
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:58 AM   #22228
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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there will obviously be an influx of pros but the action will be absolutely fantastic. I think the games are going to be off the proverbial hook there for quite some time
Boston is one of the most educated cities in the country. I'm skeptical it will be as soft as people think when all these MIT and Harvard guys come in to help earn money for their tuition...

Then again not sure how much time an MIT student has these days to do anything but study...still, lots of other universities in the area. And even the ones who didn't go to college had the best public high schools in the country.
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Old 08-16-2018, 08:08 AM   #22229
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I play poker with lots of doctors, CPAs, lawyers, and other very smart people and I dont find them any better at poker than the avg player. There's probably more millionaires in my player pool than just about anywhere else but they arent good at poker either. It seems like they would have to be above avg intelligence to have made all that money but it just doesnt transfer to poker skill all that often.

What makes me skeptical when it comes to the new Boston casino being super soft is the fact that those people already have places to play poker nearby. Is there suddenly going to be 100s of new people trying poker just because theres a new room in Boston? Or are the people who already play in rooms around the area just going to have a closer place to play?
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Old 08-16-2018, 08:26 AM   #22230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm not super familiar with the Boston area but I believe that Foxwoods and Mohegan are the only major rooms around. I've played in a super soft charity room in NH that was lol compared to the rooms I play in. FW and MS are probably roughly the same distance from Boston that MD Live is from D.C. And people were saying MGM NAtional Harbor was off the hook

Also, millionaire /= smart.

I would guess new Boston casino is pretty soft at first, solely because level of play for most will have been weak home/underground games
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Old 08-16-2018, 08:55 AM   #22231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Smart successful people playing poker for recreation are not (usually) putting the same level of effort into poker that they do into their day job. They are playing to blow off some steam and are successful enough not to get too stressed about losing a few BIs.

They tend to be great for the game. Sure, some of them turn into Competitive Recs, but most can't be bothered.
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Old 08-16-2018, 10:30 AM   #22232
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A lot of people in my business are talking about it FWIW. It's a real issue that needs to be factored into any retiree's planning process.



Though the writer's presumed solution is to stock up on precious metals to which I offer a hearty LOL


The writer is a Mauldin guy so works for a gold big company. Broken clocks who say “gold gold gold” for all environments.
I realized that to some less trained people their marketing rings true (my British mother in law once sent me a video by some gold bug bc she as worried the financial world would blow up after watching it. I had to explain that this was doomsday marketing and their MO.)


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Old 08-16-2018, 10:37 AM   #22233
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've been trying to keep my identity a secret but, being the donkey that I am, I'll at least expose my location! I'm from Boston. We have a bunch of card rooms in NH to the north and 3 casinos with poker rooms to the south currently. And, soon, MGM Springfield will be opening with a 23 table poker room from why I've heard.
I've only recently started playing nl holde m on a semi regular based again, my stats from last summer until now, ready for this, 104 hours with a plus of 24. I don't have my cell with me right now to look at my poker tracker but that should be about right.
So, in other words, I'm not the greatest authority but this is my take.
Foxwoods, an hour and a half drive for me, is by far the biggest room, as everyone knows already. It's infested with bad players but a lot of those bad players have been playing there for 25 years. You'll make good money at 1/2, if you're a good player but for someone like me, it's been a struggle of late.
I can only speak for my game, 1/2 of course.
Twin rivers in RI , which is only 40 minutes for me, is infested with maniacs. You can make a lot of money there but they only have something like 18 tables, dealers and floor stink. I only play there sparingly because I can't stand the variance. I fall in the nitty side.
Probably a big leak of mine, not parking there.
So,yeah, Boston itself geographically is a small city but it's a huge metropolitan area.
Lot's of people who live in and around to Boston, hardly ever took the drive to Connecticut.
I imagine the action Will be HUGE.
So, don't nobody need to come here. Nothing to see, go home folks.
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Old 08-16-2018, 10:40 AM   #22234
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My opinion and I could be completely incorrect: there have often been difficulties breaking into the job market and being a contributor to the economy. I know there certainly was amongst my friends and I in the early/mid 90's, there was to some extent in the early 2000s and there unquestionably was in post 2008.



However, this is the first generation with the ability to complain about it ubiquitously via social media. So there is a sort of reinforcement/confirmation bias in play here.



I also believe there are more students with worthless degrees from suspect institutions that aren't nearly as valuable as the students expected.



I have seen some statistics that at least tangentially support my thesis but I can't put my finger on them ATM


I can go further.
Millennial are the first generation living with a clearly lower standard of living then their parents. This is true for people with degrees and people without. Real wages have fallen since 1980, and that’s true for people with decent college degrees and not just “some college” or the University of Phoenix crowd.

Parts of the economy that used to be a safe haven for the well educated (eg Professorships) are now highly competitive and unstable careers with lower real pay then in previous generations.

Perversely, as the economy has moved against people outside the .1% of wealth, it’s also made it more of a requirement to have a decent degree to get a high paid job, while significantly raising the cost of said degree (famous writer James Thurber worked his way through OH State as a dishwasher—think anyone could do that now, about 100 years later?—and that was before modern college finance so he didn’t have 100k+ in debt)

So it’s not just confirmation bias, in America 50 years ago an able bodied man could go get a factory job that would support a family of 4 in a house w a car. The equivalent of about 50/hr job full time job today + pension. Said same factory work today is 12-18/hr and you’re lucky if you get benefits.



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Old 08-16-2018, 10:43 AM   #22235
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I have a pal who is a 5/10 player in lv and he is a highly skilled perfessional with a big bag o tricks. He plays mostly games that are deep and has a very nice sample size. He wins at exactly 11 bigs per hr over this sample.


This sounds about right for best player in room kinda guy.

For even a good player, I think anything over 5-7bb/hr required a very juicy game (eg following the WSOP or moving every few years to whatever the newest major poker room is). In a very juicy game, winrates can triple—I should’ve listened to my buddies telling me to go to FL when it opened up—instead I went to grad school


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Old 08-16-2018, 10:46 AM   #22236
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If you haven't played for seven or eight years, yes it gonna be hard and take some work to crush again even at low stakes. Black Friday alone made the games harder. Recently training sites like Upswing are turning a lot of fish into break even or slightly winning players which is no doubt a disaster.


Can confirm that 1/3 today looks like 2/5 about 5 years ago.

I was full time live after Black Friday, but I think the recent training site explosions has changed the game more then BFriday did.




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Old 08-16-2018, 10:47 AM   #22237
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People dont shovel chips at you anymore. You have to take them. You have to trick them. You wont be able to get 3 nice sized streets of value out of TP hardly ever. Playing TAG ABC will still win but not at a large win rate like it used to.


Truth. TAG ABC win rates are now way low.

Benefit? Degen tricky rates still holding up . Team Degen FTW!


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Old 08-16-2018, 10:48 AM   #22238
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Boston is one of the most educated cities in the country. I'm skeptical it will be as soft as people think when all these MIT and Harvard guys come in to help earn money for their tuition...

Then again not sure how much time an MIT student has these days to do anything but study...still, lots of other universities in the area. And even the ones who didn't go to college had the best public high schools in the country.
I am 100% willing to put my money where my mouth is and wager as much as you want on this. I am certain we can find a mod who would be willing to escrow for us. I have seen enough new places open to state that it just does not matter how many skewls there are near by or how smart people are - when gamboolin comes a knocking the degens come out
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Old 08-16-2018, 10:51 AM   #22239
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Are you seriously worried about the fish studying upswing poker? Do you know how much content is out there, tons if it free, and the fish still call it off with top pair no kicker.



Most of the fish would misapply the concepts from upswing and become aggrotards. Some of your recent posts in the strategy forum have had me laughing due to fancy play at 1/3 you are attempting.


I just run a lot of bluffs bc that’s how I roll (lot as a guy who tries to keep vpip under 20, I run more if VPiP below 10 for an hour). That used to help my 1/3 winrate and help my 2/5 winrate as players at 1/3 are just so much more easily crushed w solid ABC poker + in the back 2 positions raise and Cbet 75%. Since I started playing again after a multi year hiatus, I can confirm that my local 1/3 plays a lot more like a 2/5 used to.


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Old 08-16-2018, 10:53 AM   #22240
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It's tough but doable. I hadn't really played since 2011 but started playing live full time roughly one year ago. Made about 10BB/HR at 1/2 then moved up to 2/5 where I don't have a large sample yet but my winrate is on the absurd side.

Player pool is still quite weak but not as weak as it was so adjustments have to be made. The good thing about live though is pretty much everyone sucks even the winning players. There's almost nobody in my room I find particularly scary and I see lots of the "pros" doing dumb or transparent moves that might work on some of the fish but makes them easy to exploit.

I might find squid scary if I ever ran into him but at this point I think he's just a poker ghost story

But...if you have some decent paying legit job almost certainly better off sticking with that.


Ditto this on squid.

I feel like I’d discover it was squid when posting a hand I got lit up on and he’d just chime in “yeah boi, I was the winner in the hand and your money is currently on my table in the form of hookerz and blow”


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Old 08-16-2018, 11:20 AM   #22241
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Yea, I know all of that. Likely maxing both regardless. Employer plan contributes 10% salary to my 5%, which is crazy good. Also offers a full slate of options through what's basically a regular brokerage account.

The issue is more of where to put different classes of assets between the two. Stocks vs Bonds vs something that generates a lot of dividends. Can't tell if the Roth/Traditional or IRA/40x matters for those kinds of things. Can get effectively equivalent funds in either

PLO is covering pretty much all of my incidental expenses and food recently, so it's time to crank up the investing.
In terms of stocks vs. bonds, don't limit yourself to the 2 asset classes. There's alts, commodities, etc. that may be worth while to add to your portfolio that theoretically decreases risk and while maintaining/increases return added along stocks/bonds. That's a good situation. However, you can't ask a question on a forum like this (or any in general) and get the answers that best suite you. Everything is case by case based off your needs, ago, income, risk tol, etc. Talk to advisory if you don't want to spend any of your time doing it, or do some research on your own to save $. As Buffett says, its easier than you think to invest, but that's not to say its easy.

In terms of roth/traditional/403. Doesn't matter. Dividends, cap gains not taxed year to year. Tax now vs. later really does matter, though. Do you think your tax rate will be higher or lower when you retire? Really think about that question. Investing $15K pretax a year at 8% (generous) for 30 years would = $1.3M for a Roth/roth 403. If in traditional/403, but your tax rate were 10% higher at retirement = $1.1M. Almost $200K different. It matters.
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Old 08-16-2018, 11:49 AM   #22242
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
What makes me skeptical when it comes to the new Boston casino being super soft is the fact that those people already have places to play poker nearby. Is there suddenly going to be 100s of new people trying poker just because theres a new room in Boston? Or are the people who already play in rooms around the area just going to have a closer place to play?
This would be my take as well. Not to say that the players flocking to the room won't be bad per se, but rather saying that I highly doubt there are too many people sitting down at the poker tables in 2018 anywhere that don't have 10+ years of experience under their belt (yeah, they still still suck, but they don't suck to the this-is-my-first-rodeo extent).

Gveryfewnoobsenteringthegameatthispoint,imhoG
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Old 08-16-2018, 12:00 PM   #22243
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This would be my take as well. Not to say that the players flocking to the room won't be bad per se, but rather saying that I highly doubt there are too many people sitting down at the poker tables in 2018 anywhere that don't have 10+ years of experience under their belt (yeah, they still still suck, but they don't suck to the this-is-my-first-rodeo extent).

Gveryfewnoobsenteringthegameatthispoint,imhoG
Totally agree. But, the people who've been playing for 10 years are still dead money. It's just going to take a little more effort than it would as opposed to a total newcomer to the game.

Hey, isn't this what everyone in the poker industry wanted, bring more people into the game?
Of course, a lot of these new people have gained some experience over the years.
Be careful what you wish for boys.
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Old 08-16-2018, 01:25 PM   #22244
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A few questions. Hope this isn't too off topic.
I consider a "fish" as someone with little to no experience at the poker table.
As opposed to a fish, a " donkey " for me is someone with experience but who's still pretty bad.

Mind y'all, I don't actually use these terms about people when sitting at the table. Don't really find them that useful and I don't normally view people in derogatory terms. Anyways.

Would y'all agree to those interpretations?
And, what's a rec( recreational), and what's a reg(regular)?
How would y'all exactly define, differentiate those terms.

I mean, can a reg be a reg and not a pro?
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Old 08-16-2018, 02:06 PM   #22245
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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A few questions. Hope this isn't too off topic.
I consider a "fish" as someone with little to no experience at the poker table.
As opposed to a fish, a " donkey " for me is someone with experience but who's still pretty bad.

Mind y'all, I don't actually use these terms about people when sitting at the table. Don't really find them that useful and I don't normally view people in derogatory terms. Anyways.

Would y'all agree to those interpretations?
And, what's a rec( recreational), and what's a reg(regular)?
How would y'all exactly define, differentiate those terms.

I mean, can a reg be a reg and not a pro?
There are no standard definitions for any of these terms. Everyone means something slightly different by them and every person being described is somewhere on a spectrum, not an archetype.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:11 PM   #22246
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I'm not sure I'd be so pessimistic about a new casino in a new city. When a place like that opens it should pull in a lot of players *in general*. People that want to play craps, or blackjack, or just go out for a good time on Saturday night. *Those* are the people that are going to be joining the games.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:18 PM   #22247
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I'm not sure I'd be so pessimistic about a new casino in a new city. When a place like that opens it should pull in a lot of players *in general*. People that want to play craps, or blackjack, or just go out for a good time on Saturday night. *Those* are the people that are going to be joining the games.
Great point, this is how new fish are born. Especially if they win their first session or two.
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Old 08-16-2018, 04:12 PM   #22248
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In terms of stocks vs. bonds, don't limit yourself to the 2 asset classes. There's alts, commodities, etc. that may be worth while to add to your portfolio that theoretically decreases risk and while maintaining/increases return added along stocks/bonds. That's a good situation. However, you can't ask a question on a forum like this (or any in general) and get the answers that best suite you. Everything is case by case based off your needs, ago, income, risk tol, etc. Talk to advisory if you don't want to spend any of your time doing it, or do some research on your own to save $. As Buffett says, its easier than you think to invest, but that's not to say its easy.



In terms of roth/traditional/403. Doesn't matter. Dividends, cap gains not taxed year to year. Tax now vs. later really does matter, though. Do you think your tax rate will be higher or lower when you retire? Really think about that question. Investing $15K pretax a year at 8% (generous) for 30 years would = $1.3M for a Roth/roth 403. If in traditional/403, but your tax rate were 10% higher at retirement = $1.1M. Almost $200K different. It matters.


As to the personal finance advice. This is my actual job, I agree that it does matter. And all those assumptions that goes into models is about as useful as guys talking about beating their range while losing money. Markets change and move and life changes and moves.
I don’t build 30 year plans because it’s useless in 5 years. I do put clients on the right path so that they will end up in the best place. And I expect things to change in their lives over time and we will need to change things to make sure their $$ gets to where it needs to go. That’s fine—it’s a feature not a bug.


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Old 08-16-2018, 04:35 PM   #22249
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As to the personal finance advice. This is my actual job, I agree that it does matter. And all those assumptions that goes into models is about as useful as guys talking about beating their range while losing money. Markets change and move and life changes and moves.
I don’t build 30 year plans because it’s useless in 5 years. I do put clients on the right path so that they will end up in the best place. And I expect things to change in their lives over time and we will need to change things to make sure their $$ gets to where it needs to go. That’s fine—it’s a feature not a bug.


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The pt was to demonstrate the important monetary impact of one's decision between roth/traditional. Give him/her the info and let him/her decide.
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Old 08-16-2018, 04:43 PM   #22250
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I removed some off topic posts that were going back to "quality of life in America". Let's keep them out of here.
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