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Old 04-10-2019, 12:49 PM   #23551
XtraScratch8
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here’s something that’s on my mind lately. What kind of win rate would you want at 2/5 over a 1000 or 2000 hour sample size before shot taking at 5/10? 6-10+bb/hr?
I feel pretty confident that I’d be fine playing 5/10, it’s usually 2-4 of the better 2/5 players, with a handful of bad players sitting as well.
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Old 04-10-2019, 01:18 PM   #23552
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have the personal belief that it shouldn’t be about wr but instead about available buy ins.

Set aside an amount of buy ins (3-4) that you’d like to take a shot with and if you felt them then continue at 2-5 until you re-earn $3-4K, then try again.

This mistake is more prevalent with online players who want to hit some kind of magical milestone in wr at a stake instead of just focusing on accumulating enough buy ins to shot take the next level.

If you are asking about a direct comparison in win rates, I’d guess a 8bb/hr winner at 2/5 to be a 5bb/hr winner at 5/10 with zero changes to their game. Somewhere around there.
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Old 04-10-2019, 01:19 PM   #23553
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Here’s something that’s on my mind lately. What kind of win rate would you want at 2/5 over a 1000 or 2000 hour sample size before shot taking at 5/10? 6-10+bb/hr?
I feel pretty confident that I’d be fine playing 5/10, it’s usually 2-4 of the better 2/5 players, with a handful of bad players sitting as well.
I would worry less about your current winrate and more about your bankroll. 5/T requires a much larger roll (I understand you're just shottaking) becuase games typically play substantially bigger.
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Old 04-10-2019, 02:58 PM   #23554
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by UmphLove View Post
I played at a local charity room in Michigan (Vision Lanes) and they raked $210 in the first hour. Still beatable
Is this based on running well in one session or was this a consistently profitable game over a 1000 hour sample? Just curious. And what was the rake structure that produced $210/hr?
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:01 PM   #23555
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Here’s something that’s on my mind lately. What kind of win rate would you want at 2/5 over a 1000 or 2000 hour sample size before shot taking at 5/10? 6-10+bb/hr?
I feel pretty confident that I’d be fine playing 5/10, it’s usually 2-4 of the better 2/5 players, with a handful of bad players sitting as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I have the personal belief that it shouldn’t be about wr but instead about available buy ins.

Set aside an amount of buy ins (3-4) that you’d like to take a shot with and if you felt them then continue at 2-5 until you re-earn $3-4K, then try again.

This mistake is more prevalent with online players who want to hit some kind of magical milestone in wr at a stake instead of just focusing on accumulating enough buy ins to shot take the next level.

If you are asking about a direct comparison in win rates, I’d guess a 8bb/hr winner at 2/5 to be a 5bb/hr winner at 5/10 with zero changes to their game. Somewhere around there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tellypl View Post
I would worry less about your current winrate and more about your bankroll. 5/T requires a much larger roll (I understand you're just shottaking) becuase games typically play substantially bigger.
I've been thinking about this also. I was going to wait until June / July but I could take a shot sooner based on this. I'm only planning to buy 100 BB for my shots (even though the cap is 300 BB, is this a mistake?) so I have 4 BI set aside. The WR comparison is especially encouraging as I wasn't sure I'd even be break even with no adjustments. Thanks.
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:04 PM   #23556
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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
I've been thinking about this also. I was going to wait until June / July but I could take a shot sooner based on this. I'm only planning to buy 100 BB for my shots (even though the cap is 300 BB, is this a mistake?) so I have 4 BI set aside. The WR comparison is especially encouraging as I wasn't sure I'd even be break even with no adjustments. Thanks.
Ava is generally correct wrt to the winrate thing. However there will be rooms where the 5/T is much tougher than the 2/5, and you may not be a winner at all.

Just be aware. No need to play if the game is terrible.

Buying in for 100BB is fine as long as you aren't playing with scared money. If you are, don't play it at all.
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:19 PM   #23557
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Thanks Ava/Telly. I have the bankroll available whenever for shot taking, but had planned on hitting a # of hours at 2/5 before moving up. Now I’m considering taking shots the odd weekend if the game looks good and simply tracking results separately.
Probably will just hammer away at 2/5 hours for awhile yet and really pad a roll, but maybe in a couple months I’ll start adding the odd 5/T session. Pretty sure I’ll still have a reasonable advantage over the majority of the field.
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:20 PM   #23558
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Good luck if you shot take soon c0rnBr34d!
Keep us posted if you don’t mind.
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:27 PM   #23559
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yea I don’t want to engage the 2/5 vs 5/10 debate in this thread (any questions after this, take it to chat and I will try to answer) but Telly is correct that there are some pretty tough higher stakes games out there. So I don’t want to give blanket statements like they are all jokes when people’s rolls could be on the line. But more often than not I am surprised by how soft 5/10 is, not how tough it is. I will admit I have played a lot less in the last 6 months, but I doubt much has changed.

There are pretty big adjustments (much less limping, more floating, more 3betting) but like I said if you can beat 2/5 for a good clip you should be able to realize what’s happening and adjust.

When shot taking I always recommend 100bbs buy ins. Table select and seat select aggressively, if they aren’t pristine conditions don’t play. Don’t prove anything to anyone or to yourself, just play your same game.

And finally, if you find your self up >1 buy in I strongly suggest locking up a win. It is a good feeling to shot take and profit.
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:32 PM   #23560
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Yea I don’t want to engage the 2/5 vs 5/10 debate in this thread (any questions after this, take it to chat and I will try to answer) but Telly is correct that there are some pretty tough higher stakes games out there. So I don’t want to give blanket statements like they are all jokes when people’s rolls could be on the line. But more often than not I am surprised by how soft 5/10 is, not how tough it is. I will admit I have played a lot less in the last 6 months, but I doubt much has changed.

There are pretty big adjustments (much less limping, more floating, more 3betting) but like I said if you can beat 2/5 for a good clip you should be able to realize what’s happening and adjust.

When shot taking I always recommend 100bbs buy ins. Table select and seat select aggressively, if they aren’t pristine conditions don’t play. Don’t prove anything to anyone or to yourself, just play your same game.

And finally, if you find your self up >1 buy in I strongly suggest locking up a win. It is a good feeling to shot take and profit.

^

The only thing I’d like to add to this is make sure you’re mentally/physically/spiritually/ (whatever you need) ready for to play the bigger game.

It makes much more sense to jump into a good game whilst you are ready and able, rather than to reach some sort of hour/win rate mark at a later date, but the game is bad and you feel like you need to play because you just hit whatever mark you were waiting to hit.


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Old 04-10-2019, 03:39 PM   #23561
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Is this based on running well in one session or was this a consistently profitable game over a 1000 hour sample? Just curious. And what was the rake structure that produced $210/hr?
I'm beating the game for 36 an hour over 64 hours... so i don't have a good enough sample size but I know for sure its beatable. And the rake structure is 10% of the pot up to 6$
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:48 PM   #23562
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That all makes sense. Don’t wanna drone on about it. Glad to get some perspective though. Feel ready now, just won’t jump on a table if I see it’s all top 5 regs in my room or something. Usually it’s just two of the handful though, and that’s not so bad.
Good to know you recommend only 100bb shots too Ava.
Eventually, the goal is to play less hours, but bigger games when I do.
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Old 04-10-2019, 03:59 PM   #23563
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by UmphLove View Post
I'm beating the game for 36 an hour over 64 hours... so i don't have a good enough sample size but I know for sure its beatable. And the rake structure is 10% of the pot up to 6$
Oh ok. 10% capped at $6 is cheaper than most casinos so I agree. Just saw the dollar amount and didn't know what to do with it. Good luck.
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Old 04-10-2019, 04:27 PM   #23564
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Eventually, the goal is to play less hours, but bigger games when I do.
This is what I do but realize this makes the variance surreal and you basically don’t have a winrate anymore. Just a recreational start of year and end of year “how much money do I have” view.

One of the last times I played I lost the equivalent of a used car. Back when I was pumping out 100hrs a month I would have shrugged this off and grinded it back over the next month or so...but since I only play once every few months now...I still toss and turn at night from that session sometimes.
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Old 04-10-2019, 04:50 PM   #23565
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This is what I do but realize this makes the variance surreal and you basically don’t have a winrate anymore. Just a recreational start of year and end of year “how much money do I have” view.

One of the last times I played I lost the equivalent of a used car. Back when I was pumping out 100hrs a month I would have shrugged this off and grinded it back over the next month or so...but since I only play once every few months now...I still toss and turn at night from that session sometimes.
Yeah, I realize that. Spending lots of hours in a casino isn’t high on my life enjoyment list so that’s why I would prefer bigger game/less hours. But I also make better money playing cards at 2/5 (so far) than at my “real” job so that’s difficult to pass up or ignore too. It’s a nice side gig for now, but less hours will be good.
I am pretty good at letting bad sessions go. I get most frustrated when I play really bad in the key situations of the session. That bothers me more than $ lost, but of course 3K gone in a 5/T session would def sting awhile. I don’t think I’d ever have more than that available for a single session. My stoploss is generally 2.5 buying with the .5 used mostly for top offs.
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Old 04-10-2019, 06:55 PM   #23566
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Here’s something that’s on my mind lately. What kind of win rate would you want at 2/5 over a 1000 or 2000 hour sample size before shot taking at 5/10? 6-10+bb/hr?
I feel pretty confident that I’d be fine playing 5/10, it’s usually 2-4 of the better 2/5 players, with a handful of bad players sitting as well.
My roll is around 70k, my 1000 hour winrate is $60/hour at mostly 2/5, and I still usually skip the 5/10 game when it runs because 2/5 is more profitable AND more fun usually. 5/10 gets filled up with backpack pros and dick swinging regulars, the average raise size pre is $30, and meanwhile I'm sitting at a 2/5 table with the straddle on every third hand, preflop raises to $40 go 3-4 ways to the flop, and people are actually talking / messing around instead of staring at their phones.

But, if I wanted to swing my dick, I'd want confidence that I'm the best player at the table 95%+ of the time when I sit at 2/5, and $30,000 in my roll, for 100bb shots at 5/10. $50,000 for 200bb shots.

(I say this but I sat T/25/often straddled to $50 with a 30k roll cause the game was good; if the game is good, shot take with as much of your roll that will let you continue to play your normal stakes if you lose it all)
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Old 04-11-2019, 08:45 PM   #23567
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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My roll is around 70k, my 1000 hour winrate is $60/hour at mostly 2/5, and I still usually skip the 5/10 game when it runs because 2/5 is more profitable AND more fun usually. 5/10 gets filled up with backpack pros and dick swinging regulars, the average raise size pre is $30, and meanwhile I'm sitting at a 2/5 table with the straddle on every third hand, preflop raises to $40 go 3-4 ways to the flop, and people are actually talking / messing around instead of staring at their phones.

But, if I wanted to swing my dick, I'd want confidence that I'm the best player at the table 95%+ of the time when I sit at 2/5, and $30,000 in my roll, for 100bb shots at 5/10. $50,000 for 200bb shots.

(I say this but I sat T/25/often straddled to $50 with a 30k roll cause the game was good; if the game is good, shot take with as much of your roll that will let you continue to play your normal stakes if you lose it all)
super duper ****ing solid advice in this response.

Also between the lines is some nice "put your phone down and make sure that game face is a smile and a laugh"

I know its beating a dead horse but I still see a lot of the younger "pro's" berating and mean mugging and just all around being boring at the table. Get involved - get a hobby or research common topics or simply be passionate about something that isnt math/poker Order a drink, take a sip and then dont drink any more - just APPEAR like you are there for the party and not for the conference.
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Old 04-12-2019, 08:46 AM   #23568
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Yeah, super solid advice by all the last few posters. Really appreciate it.
I’m usually pretty relaxed and easygoing at the table. I get along with regs and recs. Generally help with keeping the table vibe relaxed and friendly. Usually keep my phone turned off when playing unless I want to record an interesting hand, which I go for a walk to do. Usually try to talk about things that aren’t poker.
Ranma makes a good point about 2/5 often being the better game even when a 5/T is running and I’ve noticed this too. Often the 5/T game plays tight from what I’ve seen. I’ll only hop on under optimal conditions for the next few months.
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Old 04-12-2019, 09:07 AM   #23569
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by smokingrobot View Post
super duper ****ing solid advice in this response.

Also between the lines is some nice "put your phone down and make sure that game face is a smile and a laugh"

I know its beating a dead horse but I still see a lot of the younger "pro's" berating and mean mugging and just all around being boring at the table. Get involved - get a hobby or research common topics or simply be passionate about something that isnt math/poker Order a drink, take a sip and then dont drink any more - just APPEAR like you are there for the party and not for the conference.
I still don't get the berating of players. I think this is a form of tilt that some people just can't get a hold on and they would be a better player if they could. I actually get mad at myself if I let out a guffaw on a 3 outter or something and the player notices.

And once it becomes undeniable that you play lots of poker you gotta find a way to keep it light hearted. Find ways to deflect the loud and obnoxious guy who keeps screaming that you are a 'pro'. My most recent joke is asking a friendly rec player how many stacks do I need to punt/call off before people don't think I'm tight.

Marsh
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Old 04-12-2019, 04:29 PM   #23570
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I love it when "regs" berate crap players after a suckout, it's a perfect opportunity to make the fish feel better about himself and make the crappy reg go on tilt.
Something as simple as saying: "what do you mean he sucks etc, he's got the money hasn't he?" works great at getting the fish back in a happy mindset and the reg on monkeytilt.
Just go with the moment and get on the regs nerves while reeling the fish back into playing stupid.
Keeping a good game good is a pretty important skill to have in a live setting I'd say.
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Old 04-12-2019, 09:20 PM   #23571
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you have to ask questions like these, you’re almost certainly not ready for 5/10. Also, don’t think anyone who’s only making 8bb/hr at 2/5 should be regularly playing 5/10 unless he’s just a rec playing for the thrill or unless he’s just thinking super long term.
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Old 04-12-2019, 09:36 PM   #23572
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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If you have to ask questions like these, you’re almost certainly not ready for 5/10. Also, don’t think anyone who’s only making 8bb/hr at 2/5 should be regularly playing 5/10 unless he’s just a rec playing for the thrill or unless he’s just thinking super long term.


8bb/hr is crushing.
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Old 04-13-2019, 11:24 AM   #23573
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I'd consider taking a shot without the proper bankroll for it anytime I'd feel comfortable spending those 1 or 2 buy ins risked on some other stupid thing.
That new set of wheels can wait another month if it means you could be making 2x as much money by taking a shot.
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Old 04-13-2019, 11:30 AM   #23574
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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
If you have to ask questions like these, you’re almost certainly not ready for 5/10. Also, don’t think anyone who’s only making 8bb/hr at 2/5 should be regularly playing 5/10 unless he’s just a rec playing for the thrill or unless he’s just thinking super long term.
If this is directed at me I think it’s amusing that you’re assuming my skill level based on a very open ended question. And as Kato says 8+bb/hr long term is crushing.
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Old 04-13-2019, 03:29 PM   #23575
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I forgot another tip. If you have the option, cash out at different cages. A surprising amount of follow-homes are coordinated with people who work in the cage. So you don’t want to be the guy that is consistently cashing out $5K from cashier Britney on Saturday night just bc she has nice tits and you want to impress her. She has an alcoholic boyfriend that will beat your ass with a bat and rob you blind. She also has herpes.

So head on down to the blackjack cage and say hi to Mabel. She’s 83 and slow as **** but at least she doesn’t have an alcoholic bf that will beat your ass. Probably still has herpes tho.
LMAO! Winrates, bankrolls, and financesWinrates, bankrolls, and financesWinrates, bankrolls, and financesWinrates, bankrolls, and finances
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