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Old 04-05-2019, 05:55 PM   #23476
c0rnBr34d
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Yeah, you'll get some people who lose $30/hr over the dozen times they get out per year and won't notice it / care, but those people make up like 1% of the poker population (imo); the other 99% are regs putting in some decent volume where a decent negative winrate is eventually going to cause a noticeable dent.
Gitmaybeamirage,itmaybethinice,itmightbefine,Idunn oG
Wait what?! You're saying your typical table has 7 regs and 1 rec / fish? If there are more than 3 strong regs at my table I don't like it. And if there are 5 I'm outta there. 99% regs? Am I reading that wrong?
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Old 04-05-2019, 05:58 PM   #23477
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

reg /= strong reg. Most regs lose, though they don't keep records and are convinced that they "are about break-even."
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:01 PM   #23478
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I think we're forgetting the guys that come and dump $2k into a $1/2 game in a weekend, or a day. There are definitely guys that I know that will easily lose $20-30k a year. That sustains a lot of other players once it circulates around the poker economy.
+1 I tried to touch on this but didn't specify if they were dumping large or small. In my market there are tons of new faces every session. I never really tried to figure a breakdown but I'd venture to guess 50% of faces look familiar. Maybe it depends on how we define reg. Tomorrow I'll have eyes on the field and make a better reg to rec estimation.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:03 PM   #23479
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
reg /= strong reg. Most regs lose, though they don't keep records and are convinced that they "are about break-even."
Agreed. This is probably a large population of the room as well. I would think though that the larger losers wouldn't be able to lie to themselves for that long even if they weren't keeping records. Which is why I assume they just play less frequently when they lose and come back sooner when they are on a heater.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:05 PM   #23480
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My field has about 1 new face over 7 tables per session. It's still full of spewtastic regs. Better yet, I've only been here for a handful of sessions and I already have strong reads on most of them.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:07 PM   #23481
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I would think though that the larger losers wouldn't be able to lie to themselves for that long even if they weren't keeping records.
The weak reg response "Yeah, NL is swingy. I'm getting beat up lately, but I won three buy ins a few weeks ago (narrator: it was actually months), so it all evens out."
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:10 PM   #23482
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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
I would think though that the larger losers wouldn't be able to lie to themselves for that long even if they weren't keeping records. Which is why I assume they just play less frequently when they lose and come back sooner when they are on a heater.
It depends how much $2k means to them. With sufficient income it just doesn't matter if they're punting money. They're *spending* money on poker to have *fun*. It's like the guys playing blackjack for $25/50 a hand.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:19 PM   #23483
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Wait what?! You're saying your typical table has 7 regs and 1 rec / fish? If there are more than 3 strong regs at my table I don't like it. And if there are 5 I'm outta there. 99% regs? Am I reading that wrong?
Basically +1 on what G said regarding reg != strong reg. And reg doesn't mean !rec.

But yeah, pretty much everyone is a reg. There are no random players playing a one-off poker session / having a night out with the boys in casino and sitting down at the poker table instead of the blackjack table (you actually wouldn't get on the table in my room without phoning in well beforehand). But most of them will lose over time, and probably (hopefully?) be replaced by the next cycle of losing regs.

GimeG
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:26 PM   #23484
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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If somewhere close to 75 bb's an hour are being taken off the table, I would say its close to unbeatable. Maybe even closer to 60.
I'd say 75bb/hour is pretty cheap for a 1/2 game.

have played a 1/2 that was 10% to $15 + 2, that was generally perceived as "nitty"... that I thought was pretty soft and in which I had wonderful results over a few hundred hours

No, there's no way to know for sure without playing in it. The only situation I'd comfortably say "yeah that rake is probably not beatable" is if it was 10% uncapped or 15% to a non-trivial amount.

even 10% uncapped, the game could just be really good. Doesn't hurt to play a session and find out.
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Old 04-05-2019, 07:43 PM   #23485
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I'd say 75bb/hour is pretty cheap for a 1/2 game.

have played a 1/2 that was 10% to $15 + 2, that was generally perceived as "nitty"... that I thought was pretty soft and in which I had wonderful results over a few hundred hours

No, there's no way to know for sure without playing in it. The only situation I'd comfortably say "yeah that rake is probably not beatable" is if it was 10% uncapped or 15% to a non-trivial amount.

even 10% uncapped, the game could just be really good. Doesn't hurt to play a session and find out.
This is surprising coming from a vet. Maybe I'm spoiled but always refused to play the cruise ship casinos with 10% capped at $25 with a mix of emotions consisting of feeling robbed / disrespected before I even sat down and not knowing if it was possible to beat that much rake. You seem to clearly think these fish fests could still be profitable over a significant sample. Do other vets / pros agree?
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Old 04-05-2019, 07:58 PM   #23486
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
This is surprising coming from a vet. Maybe I'm spoiled but always refused to play the cruise ship casinos with 10% capped at $25 with a mix of emotions consisting of feeling robbed / disrespected before I even sat down and not knowing if it was possible to beat that much rake. You seem to clearly think these fish fests could still be profitable over a significant sample. Do other vets / pros agree?
Could easily be profitable if peeps drunk and punting stacks
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Old 04-05-2019, 08:03 PM   #23487
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If somewhere close to 75 bb's an hour are being taken off the table, I would say its close to unbeatable. Maybe even closer to 60.
This is not true at all. In fact, its so not true that it boggles my mind that it was even written here.

Whats the avg pot size in a standard 1/2 game? You only need an avg pot size of around $40 to get 75BB/hr taken off the table and that's if we arent counting promo drop. An avg pot size of around $35 will get around 60BBs/hr raked.

These games are very crushable.
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Old 04-05-2019, 08:22 PM   #23488
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Aren't we all just guessing? There's definitely a threshold where games become unbeatable. I think some people here are clouded by heaters paying immense rake and think it will last forever. It will not
I’m not guessing. My positions are based on math. I also have close to 4K tracked hours winning just over 10BB/h. I can use statistics to estimate the probability that that result was due to luck, and it’s effectively zero.

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Anyone who believes they can beat a game with this much rake better be one of the top 3 best players in their pool just to even have a chance. Even then, the rake will be near impossible to beat after a sufficient amount of hands.
If I play 1|2 I am the best player in my pool, but that’s not saying much. 1|2 is a joke. At 2|5 I know players who are better than me so I’m probably not even top 3, but it’s a large room so I’m usually the best player at the table at least.
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Old 04-05-2019, 08:32 PM   #23489
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Basically +1 on what G said regarding reg != strong reg. And reg doesn't mean !rec.

But yeah, pretty much everyone is a reg. There are no random players playing a one-off poker session / having a night out with the boys in casino and sitting down at the poker table instead of the blackjack table (you actually wouldn't get on the table in my room without phoning in well beforehand). But most of them will lose over time, and probably (hopefully?) be replaced by the next cycle of losing regs.

GimeG
I remember in an old room a few years back, talking with some of the older regs about poker in the older days (early 2000s for them). They would talk about larger games (often mid-stakes limit games) that were obviously much softer than games today, and even if they could be exaggerating their success I can believe they were winners back then. After all they are still playing today.

I'm not convinced they were better than breakeven now in low-stakes NL games, because there would be multiple players like them at any given table and they weren't particularly strong.

So the moral of the story is... maybe tomorrow's losing regs are today's winning regs
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Old 04-05-2019, 10:59 PM   #23490
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First month coming back to poker after a long absence. 10 sessions, 47.5 hours played. +$870 in profit. Felt like I donked off a pile of money just making bluffs when ahead big so I could try and lose the nervousness of bluffing big pots. My last 2 sessions of the month had 3 really terrible beats (losing set vs overpair twice and losing KK vs 88 preflop) and I still ended up slightly ahead for those sessions.
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Old 04-06-2019, 06:49 AM   #23491
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This is not true at all. In fact, its so not true that it boggles my mind that it was even written here.

Whats the avg pot size in a standard 1/2 game? You only need an avg pot size of around $40 to get 75BB/hr taken off the table and that's if we arent counting promo drop. An avg pot size of around $35 will get around 60BBs/hr raked.

These games are very crushable.

So I agree with you about that statement being wrong, but I think people underestimate the cost of rake.

I've played 100 hours (lol sample size) of non raked home games. I'm averaging $42/hour which includes 15 hours at 0.25/0.50 game ($100 profit). I have ran good , but I have also lost some stacks in coolers and run bad. I don't think this is my actual win rate but I wouldn't be shocked at $30-$35/hr in this non raked 1/2 game.
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Old 04-06-2019, 08:20 AM   #23492
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Originally Posted by El Barbero View Post
So I agree with you about that statement being wrong, but I think people underestimate the cost of rake.

I've played 100 hours (lol sample size) of non raked home games. I'm averaging $42/hour which includes 15 hours at 0.25/0.50 game ($100 profit). I have ran good , but I have also lost some stacks in coolers and run bad. I don't think this is my actual win rate but I wouldn't be shocked at $30-$35/hr in this non raked 1/2 game.
Obviously, you will make more money in a non raked game than a raked game. A considerable amount more.
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Old 04-06-2019, 10:10 AM   #23493
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Slightly off topic but relevant to BR management-

Currently in the middle of the biggest downswing of my poker career. Been playing seriously (studying/tracking) for about 7 years and played 7 years or so before that not so seriously lol.

Anyways...I'm down about $4k right now for 2019 over about 50hrs at 1/2 $500max game. Sample size is quite small I realize. Just saying in 7 years I've never gone through a stretch like this where 90% of the time I sit down to play I'm losing 50-200bbs. Variance really does go both ways.

Yes I admit i'm not playing my A+ game due to all the frustration. That's one reason my sample size is so small; I had to pump the brakes and not play as much. Also worth noting that I was transitioning to 2/5 before this started. Moved down to 1/2 to regather confidence and BR and here I am getting destroyed at the smaller stake.

For all of you young bucks out there getting into the game, currently printing money, thinking wow this is so easy, remember that it's not going to last. You will get beaten down, and beaten down further than you ever thought was possible. Bankroll Management folks! Peace.
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Old 04-06-2019, 10:37 AM   #23494
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Slightly off topic but relevant to BR management-

Currently in the middle of the biggest downswing of my poker career. Been playing seriously (studying/tracking) for about 7 years and played 7 years or so before that not so seriously lol.

Anyways...I'm down about $4k right now for 2019 over about 50hrs at 1/2 $500max game. Sample size is quite small I realize. Just saying in 7 years I've never gone through a stretch like this where 90% of the time I sit down to play I'm losing 50-200bbs. Variance really does go both ways.

Yes I admit i'm not playing my A+ game due to all the frustration. That's one reason my sample size is so small; I had to pump the brakes and not play as much. Also worth noting that I was transitioning to 2/5 before this started. Moved down to 1/2 to regather confidence and BR and here I am getting destroyed at the smaller stake.

For all of you young bucks out there getting into the game, currently printing money, thinking wow this is so easy, remember that it's not going to last. You will get beaten down, and beaten down further than you ever thought was possible. Bankroll Management folks! Peace.
Down $4k over 50 hours at 1/2? You've got bigger problems on your hands than variance.

And you're admittedly playing subpar? Pumping the brakes with less than 50 hours of play? If you're a winning player and are at all invested in your poker results/income, you would just put in more volume (both on and off the tables).

1/2 and 2/5 are both "Wow this is so easy" games.

Your post doesn't have much to do with bankroll management and more to do with tilt/mental game/and just venting your beat to us.
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Old 04-06-2019, 10:45 AM   #23495
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Down $4k over 50 hours at 1/2? You've got bigger problems on your hands than variance.

And you're admittedly playing subpar? Pumping the brakes with less than 50 hours of play? If you're a winning player and are at all invested in your poker results/income, you would just put in more volume (both on and off the tables).

1/2 and 2/5 are both "Wow this is so easy" games.

Your post doesn't have much to do with bankroll management and more to do with tilt/mental game/and just venting your beat to us.
Ahh I just did my accounting and realized I was counting some losses from 2/5 before moving back to 1/2. You're right, 4k over 50hrs at 1/2 would be very problematic. I'm glad I brought this up and checked cuz it isn't that bad. I'm actually down about $1k over 50hrs at 1/2. Sorry for the confusion and sorry for going off topic on a downswing rant.
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Old 04-06-2019, 02:21 PM   #23496
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Meh, $4k over 50 hours is pretty intense, but seems plausible in a 500 cap game. People underestimate just how bad it's possible to run. IMO you're actually lucky if you go several thousand hours without a 2000BB downswing, even in a 100BB cap game.

According to some quick-math, -$4k in 50 hours is approximately a 1/5000 chance for a player with a win-rate of $20/h and a SD of $200/h (roughly my stats at 1|2)
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Old 04-06-2019, 02:43 PM   #23497
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A +-$1k variation at a $1/2 game is just completely natural noise. That's like 3-4 hands going the wrong way.

When you plot results you can see that pretty easily, even if the overall trend is still up.
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Old 04-06-2019, 04:42 PM   #23498
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Yeah if skill and BR weren't issues I would play the 5/10 regularly where it's $20/hr.


I mean, if skill and bankroll weren’t issues I’d be playing the nosebleeds in Bobby’s Room

although if skill and physical ability weren’t issues I’d probably still be in the NFL
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Old 04-06-2019, 04:46 PM   #23499
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
This is surprising coming from a vet. Maybe I'm spoiled but always refused to play the cruise ship casinos with 10% capped at $25 with a mix of emotions consisting of feeling robbed / disrespected before I even sat down and not knowing if it was possible to beat that much rake. You seem to clearly think these fish fests could still be profitable over a significant sample. Do other vets / pros agree?


Since our rake structure changed, I’m running at over $60 an hour from my last 900 hours now at games that are 10% to $15 per pot. (No tips allowed)

That is about 75% at a 2/5/10 1k buy in and the rest at 2/3 500 buy in

I’m not a pro and consider myself a decent but flawed unimaginative and nitty (ish) reg or good rec
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Old 04-06-2019, 05:05 PM   #23500
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My 1/3 NL game has a 10% rake to a max of $8, plus a $1 BBJ drop, and of course most people tip $1+ per pot (although pots taken down preflop aren't raked). $400 max BI, although most BI for much less (ex. I currently only BI / top up to $200), although you can get decent stack sizes at some tables. At 30 hands an hour (which is what we were getting when I did some tests last year), I would guesstimate that *easily* $200+ (66bb+) is coming off the table per hour (it may be worse, I admit I've never done an actual rake tracking test). And yet the game is also still easily beatable (although not for anything remotely in unicorn ranges of 10bb+/hr, although obviously others will disagree).

Rake is obviously a *huge* money suck at these limits / BIs (and vastly underestimated) but it doesn't make my loose / aggro games unbeatable... yet.

As to where the line-in-the-sand is, I don't know, and is probably game dependent.

GcluelessrakenoobG
That's no worse than $2 drop + $5 once you factor in no income tax and significantly better factoring in free health insurance, so personally I'd take Canadian high rake games all day over Florida high rake games. Assuming you had equal access to higher stakes games. Which you don't. That's what really sucks about your room IMO.

There ultimately is no line in the sand. Estimate how much other players are losing in BB/hr and compare to how much rake is taken off in BB/hr. If you have a couple spewtards even ridic rake structures like Crowne are super beatable. If it's a bunch of nits not so much.
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