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Old 04-05-2019, 11:40 AM   #23451
DumbosTrunk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Good players don't go broke at all? Or they dont go broke with 50+ BI? I'd have to disagree strongly with the former.
With a standard BR for the stake, a good NLHE player shouldn't go broke. Not 50+, but 20 or so should be enough.
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Old 04-05-2019, 11:48 AM   #23452
gobbledygeek
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For sure game dependent as always. 95%+ games just aren't good enough to overcome a 66bb+ being won by the house.

I know you have over 4k hours so it definitely means something, however the reality of the situation is ~100k hands is just not enough to be considered 'long term'. Also I know your games have been increasing in rake over those hours, so that's another thing. At one point there wasn't that many BB's being taken off.

Will we ever REALLY know? Probably not. Players are bad but to justify a table with that much being taken off still having long term winners is....tough
Yeah, without a doubt my overall winrate has gone down over that ~4400 hour stretch (and the more I play the more I realize what a lol small sample size that is too). Definitely the increase in rake has been a big part of it (among other things).

Still, if you're sitting in a game where most pots reach maximum rake thanks to 7bb preflop raises being called in multiple spots with 66bb stacks, the game will be profitable. Once that stops happening, then it could admittedly be a different story.

Ggoodlucktousall,imoG
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Old 04-05-2019, 11:48 AM   #23453
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
OK here's an update everyone.

1,250 hours, 61% cashed, 4.26 bb/hr., std. dev. 75.09 bb/hr., 1/3 $8.4/hr. (987 hours), 2/5 $69.2/hr. (133 hours). 125 hours/10% is a mix of 5/10 (1hr. -$85/hr.), 0.25/0.5 home games (18 hrs. $30/hr.), 1/2 (50 hrs. $4.2/hr.), 3/5 (6hrs. $142/hr.), and 1/2 PLO (52 hours -$25/hr.).

Monthly breakdown:

2018

July: $17.1/hr. (62 hrs.)
August: $24/hr. (154 hrs.)
September: $19/hr. (98 hrs.)
October: -$1/hr. (155 hrs.)
November: -$10/hr. (211 hrs.)
December: $27/hr. (120 hrs.)

2019

January: $17/hr. (117 hrs.)
February: $17/hr. (151 hrs.)
March: $28/hr. (163 hrs.)
April: $58/hr. (15 hrs.)
Nice run, looks like you activated beast mode in December and haven't looked back much. I have volume envy.
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:07 PM   #23454
gobbledygeek
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I have volume envy.
Yeah, Dumbo definitely puts in the volume; he'll get the same amount of hours in ~2-3 years that will take a rec player like me ~10 years.

GcluelessvolumenoobG
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:14 PM   #23455
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Yeah, Dumbo definitely puts in the volume; he'll get the same amount of hours in ~2-3 years that will take a rec player like me ~10 years.

GcluelessvolumenoobG
Same, it would be cool if I didn't know he had a full time job. That's the kicker for me. My goal for the year is 400 hours, and I'm not very optimistic about that lol.
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:21 PM   #23456
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I'll get in my typical ~550 or so. Lately I've been more and more curious as to where that would put me in my local player pool. The more I see, the more I think in the bottom % but it's sometimes tough to tell.

GcluelessvolumenoobG
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:30 PM   #23457
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Same, it would be cool if I didn't know he had a full time job. That's the kicker for me. My goal for the year is 400 hours, and I'm not very optimistic about that lol.
Thanks for the encouragement! Beast-mode lol.

I don't have a full-time job. That's why I can put in so many hours at the table!
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:34 PM   #23458
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by tellypl View Post
For sure game dependent as always. 95%+ games just aren't good enough to overcome a 66bb+ being won by the house.

I know you have over 4k hours so it definitely means something, however the reality of the situation is ~100k hands is just not enough to be considered 'long term'. Also I know your games have been increasing in rake over those hours, so that's another thing. At one point there wasn't that many BB's being taken off.

Will we ever REALLY know? Probably not. Players are bad but to justify a table with that much being taken off still having long term winners is....tough
This is incorrect. It is absolutely enough to very confidently say that GG was a winning player in his games. It is not necessarily enough to say that he will continue to win because game conditions change, especially with his low volume, but that's quite likely as well. The standard error on his win-rate over that sample is only like 1BB/h.

What is your basis for claiming these games are unbeatable?
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:44 PM   #23459
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Thanks for the encouragement! Beast-mode lol.

I don't have a full-time job. That's why I can put in so many hours at the table!
No prob, trending well is trending well...

Thanks for the clarification. That makes it still a little less.
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:46 PM   #23460
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This is incorrect. It is absolutely enough to very confidently say that GG was a winning player in his games. It is not necessarily enough to say that he will continue to win because game conditions change, especially with his low volume, but that's quite likely as well. The standard error on his win-rate over that sample is only like 1BB/h.

What is your basis for claiming these games are unbeatable?
It's not. It's absolutely enough to say GG is one of the best, if not the best in his player pool. But the reality games that rake THIS will not be beaten after a real sample size, which 100k hands just is not.

If a game is taking off 66BB per hour, and you want to have a small winner or two, that means you have to have 7-8 people losing an average of 10bb/hour every time you sit down. Sure, most players are bad, and losing, I can agree. But they are not THAT bad.
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:54 PM   #23461
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It's not. It's absolutely enough to say GG is one of the best, if not the best in his player pool. But the reality games that rake THIS will not be beaten after a real sample size, which 100k hands just is not.

If a game is taking off 66BB per hour, and you want to have a small winner or two, that means you have to have 7-8 people losing an average of 10bb/hour every time you sit down. Sure, most players are bad, and losing, I can agree. But they are not THAT bad.
Err...you underestimate how bad players at low stakes can be. I've seen absolutely horrific, terrible, insane play at the tables. There are definitely huge losers, and it's my job to play with them as often as humanly possible!
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:57 PM   #23462
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Originally Posted by tellypl View Post
It's not. It's absolutely enough to say GG is one of the best, if not the best in his player pool. But the reality games that rake THIS will not be beaten after a real sample size, which 100k hands just is not.

If a game is taking off 66BB per hour, and you want to have a small winner or two, that means you have to have 7-8 people losing an average of 10bb/hour every time you sit down. Sure, most players are bad, and losing, I can agree. But they are not THAT bad.
How do you have a feel for how much losing players are losing? I would assume that most regs aren't losing at 10 BB an hour but some may well be. Especially at the smaller games like 1/2 or 1/3. Loosing $25/hr for 4 hours every couple of weeks may not be that big a deal to a rec player with a full time job. Many players come even less frequently and may only play once a month or a few times a year. I feel like you are just guessing. Can you back this up with anything solid?
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Old 04-05-2019, 01:17 PM   #23463
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Err...you underestimate how bad players at low stakes can be. I've seen absolutely horrific, terrible, insane play at the tables. There are definitely huge losers, and it's my job to play with them as often as humanly possible!
Dumbos,

Oh I know how bad some are/can be. You also have to take into account the 2-3 nits per table who are bad and losing but at a much smaller clip. For each one of those you need another especially bad player. In order to overcome this rake you have to play with as many of these players that you mentioned as you can. Out of curiously what is your game and rake structure?

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Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
How do you have a feel for how much losing players are losing? I would assume that most regs aren't losing at 10 BB an hour but some may well be. Especially at the smaller games like 1/2 or 1/3. Loosing $25/hr for 4 hours every couple of weeks may not be that big a deal to a rec player with a full time job. Many players come even less frequently and may only play once a month or a few times a year. I feel like you are just guessing. Can you back this up with anything solid?
Aren't we all just guessing? There's definitely a threshold where games become unbeatable. I think some people here are clouded by heaters paying immense rake and think it will last forever. It will not

Anyone who believes they can beat a game with this much rake better be one of the top 3 best players in their pool just to even have a chance. Even then, the rake will be near impossible to beat after a sufficient amount of hands.
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Old 04-05-2019, 01:22 PM   #23464
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I play in a 10% up to $5 plus $2 BBJ. 1/3 and 2/5 mainly. More 2/5 lately because of the rake and BR.
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Old 04-05-2019, 01:35 PM   #23465
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Originally Posted by tellypl View Post
Aren't we all just guessing? There's definitely a threshold where games become unbeatable. I think some people here are clouded by heaters paying immense rake and think it will last forever. It will not

Anyone who believes they can beat a game with this much rake better be one of the top 3 best players in their pool just to even have a chance. Even then, the rake will be near impossible to beat after a sufficient amount of hands.
To some extent we are indeed all guessing but many opinions are based on some reasoning or some math. GGs game is raked higher than my local games but with the rake calculation estimates ITT they still wouldn't make my games unbeatable, just less profitable. We all agree that there is a line somewhere but I don't think you need to be "one of the best 3 players in the room" to beat a 10% rake capped at 8 + 1 BBJ at 1/3.
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Old 04-05-2019, 02:12 PM   #23466
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I haven’t been around for very long but I honestly don’t think the rake is such a big deal. There are so many bad players all you have to do is play tight and don’t get ahead of yourself and you will win. Nearly every time I have a losing session it’s because I made a mistake. There’s occasional bad beats but more often than not when I lose it’s because I made a clear mistake. I feel like Hold em is just a game against yourself..stay focused, don’t tilt, stay patient and you win. Rake don’t matter,
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Old 04-05-2019, 02:41 PM   #23467
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Originally Posted by Hawksfan12 View Post
I haven’t been around for very long but I honestly don’t think the rake is such a big deal. There are so many bad players all you have to do is play tight and don’t get ahead of yourself and you will win. Nearly every time I have a losing session it’s because I made a mistake. There’s occasional bad beats but more often than not when I lose it’s because I made a clear mistake. I feel like Hold em is just a game against yourself..stay focused, don’t tilt, stay patient and you win. Rake don’t matter,
Wow, that's going WAY too far on the other side. Saying rake doesn't matter is ridiculous when literally hundreds of dollars per hour are coming out of play. The other side saying a game is borderline unbeatable long term due to an $8+1 also seems far fetched though.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:01 PM   #23468
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Hawksfan, classic user on heater post.

But I'm not trying judge. I was posting the same way when I was winning huge over a trivial sample size. I didn't listen to anyone and though lol rake, it didn't matter to me either.

Last edited by tellypl; 04-05-2019 at 03:31 PM.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:21 PM   #23469
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Yeah rake really does matter. I would probably have double what I have earned now if not for the house's share. That's a ton of money. Tens of thousands of dollars.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:30 PM   #23470
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I had counted about 300 hours, I paid avg $25 per hour for rake + tips in the pot rake game. (there were some miss-counting for sure)

house rake - 10% up to $5 +$2 BBJ.

I don't tip preflop unless there is a 3bet.

I tip $1 if i won post flop for pots under $1k or there is no showdown.

I tip $2-$5 if the pot is over $1k with showdown.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:43 PM   #23471
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I had counted about 300 hours, I paid avg $25 per hour for rake + tips in the pot rake game. (there were some miss-counting for sure)

house rake - 10% up to $5 +$2 BBJ.

I don't tip preflop unless there is a 3bet.

I tip $1 if i won post flop for pots under $1k or there is no showdown.

I tip $2-$5 if the pot is over $1k with showdown.
I'm much like you. I do no tip for no flop pots unless there was a 3! in which case $1.

I tip $1 for all flop pots up to $200. I do a little more up to $500. I think the most I would ever tip would be $5. I save my generosity for promo money where I tip 5%.
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Old 04-05-2019, 03:56 PM   #23472
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I was trying to say rake is huge, but kinda flat or fix cost for your win rate. Time rake game is way better.
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Old 04-05-2019, 04:11 PM   #23473
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Yeah if skill and BR weren't issues I would play the 5/10 regularly where it's $20/hr.
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Old 04-05-2019, 04:13 PM   #23474
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While I feel my $8 + $1 + $1 game is still very beatable, I'll admit that I have no confidence whatsoever for how much. Both recent conversations regarding rake and hours played kinda have an interesting tie in with each other. For instance, if I assume that a lot of my opponents put in 1000+ hours per year at the table (and I believe a lot of them do), then that means a lot of these multi-day-per-week players have to be losing well into the 5 digits per year at their hobby to support winners like me. Throw in a crap load of OMC who are beating the rake to +/- breakeven, and you begin to wonder. Yeah, you'll get some people who lose $30/hr over the dozen times they get out per year and won't notice it / care, but those people make up like 1% of the poker population (imo); the other 99% are regs putting in some decent volume where a decent negative winrate is eventually going to cause a noticeable dent.

But of course I say that coming off a 2018 that was my best winrate-wise since 2013 in spite of the rake increases, so whatever, I guess.

Gitmaybeamirage,itmaybethinice,itmightbefine,Idunn oG
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Old 04-05-2019, 04:54 PM   #23475
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I think we're forgetting the guys that come and dump $2k into a $1/2 game in a weekend, or a day. There are definitely guys that I know that will easily lose $20-30k a year. That sustains a lot of other players once it circulates around the poker economy.
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