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Old 04-14-2019, 03:52 AM   #23576
typesick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
If this is directed at me I think it’s amusing that you’re assuming my skill level based on a very open ended question. And as Kato says 8+bb/hr long term is crushing.
I mean, I don’t have much of opinion on your game obviously. I just believe that if someone is asking such a question, he’s not prepared to battle regs who study the game and who’ve been grinding for many years. And no, 8bb/hr is not crushing. Most good 5t regs would have significantly higher win rates at 2/5. Nothing wrong with 8bb/hr. Still pretty solid.
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Old 04-14-2019, 11:51 AM   #23577
XtraScratch8
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^
The 5/T game doesn’t even regularly run so I play a lot of the 5/T players at 2/5. Usually some of the better 2/5 regs play the 5/T when it runs, usually some of the better 2/5 players stay at 2/5, like myself. But it’s not from feeling like I’d be overmatched at 5/T. I study. I know the game well. I was more just curious if people had opinions on how WR might correlate to the bigger game.
And I’m pretty positive the number of 12+bb/hr players at 2/5 is close to nonexistent in my room. There’s 3-4 at the very best, I’m quite sure of this.
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Old 04-14-2019, 12:29 PM   #23578
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Almost no one has the sample size to distinguish between 12bb/hr and running hot and 8bb/hr and running poor/average.
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Old 04-14-2019, 12:54 PM   #23579
typesick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
^
The 5/T game doesn’t even regularly run so I play a lot of the 5/T players at 2/5. Usually some of the better 2/5 regs play the 5/T when it runs, usually some of the better 2/5 players stay at 2/5, like myself. But it’s not from feeling like I’d be overmatched at 5/T. I study. I know the game well. I was more just curious if people had opinions on how WR might correlate to the bigger game.
And I’m pretty positive the number of 12+bb/hr players at 2/5 is close to nonexistent in my room. There’s 3-4 at the very best, I’m quite sure of this.
Gotcha. What are the different buy-in amounts at each level?
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Old 04-14-2019, 01:19 PM   #23580
XtraScratch8
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$500 max for 2/5. $1,500 for 5/T, but many buy in for $700-1,250.
I also think my game gets better when I’m 150+bb’s, not worse.
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Old 04-14-2019, 01:20 PM   #23581
XtraScratch8
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I will probably bring a couple $1,100 bullets, with a bit extra for top offs when I start playing it.
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Old 04-14-2019, 03:37 PM   #23582
typesick
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Oh, very nice. Those buy-ins are pretty low...making an 8bb/hr a bit more impressive.
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Old 04-14-2019, 03:55 PM   #23583
XtraScratch8
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Yeah, I definitely wish it wasn’t $500 max, but it gets 200bb deep somewhat fast.
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Old 04-14-2019, 07:01 PM   #23584
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Hi all,

I will he posting my full win rate information, graph, etc in about a few months once I reach my 1000 hours lifetime at 1/3

I am in my early-mid 20’s so don’t have a lot a ton of hours yet.

I have about 200 hours live in Las Vegas and the rest is at my hometown casino which has 5 dollar max rake and 2 for promotions.

I play for mainly a part time income type thing in addition to my day job. I definitely take the game serious and want to improve. I usually play 2-3x/week (Friday-Sunday)

Over my last 800 hours roughly (I have about 965 hours live but my last 800 I started buying in for the max-300) I am winning 19.92/hr at 1/3 and lifetime at 1/3 16.35over 882 hours(I consider myself a generous tiper and will frequently tip 2-3 dollars for pots I shouldn’t)

What is usually the missing link or missing like step to bring the winrate to about 30/hr

I know this question might not be able to be answered (not knowing how I play and stuff) I consider myself a decent TAG. I generally try and play a lot in position. ISO weak players C bet on good flops.

I am working on squeezing more IP with dead money out there.

Even if I do play great/ run good I understand my game might not be beatable for $30/hr (due to tipping, short stacks, slow play, etc)
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Old 04-14-2019, 08:16 PM   #23585
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi all,

I will he posting my full win rate information, graph, etc in about a few months once I reach my 1000 hours lifetime at 1/3

I am in my early-mid 20’s so don’t have a lot a ton of hours yet.

I have about 200 hours live in Las Vegas and the rest is at my hometown casino which has 5 dollar max rake and 2 for promotions.

I play for mainly a part time income type thing in addition to my day job. I definitely take the game serious and want to improve. I usually play 2-3x/week (Friday-Sunday)

Over my last 800 hours roughly (I have about 965 hours live but my last 800 I started buying in for the max-300) I am winning 19.92/hr at 1/3 and lifetime at 1/3 16.35over 882 hours(I consider myself a generous tiper and will frequently tip 2-3 dollars for pots I shouldn’t)

What is usually the missing link or missing like step to bring the winrate to about 30/hr

I know this question might not be able to be answered (not knowing how I play and stuff) I consider myself a decent TAG. I generally try and play a lot in position. ISO weak players C bet on good flops.

I am working on squeezing more IP with dead money out there.

Even if I do play great/ run good I understand my game might not be beatable for $30/hr (due to tipping, short stacks, slow play, etc)
Any 1/3 game with 100BB or more max buy in with $5 +$2 rake is beatable for $30+/hr
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:51 AM   #23586
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32 View Post
Hi all,

I will he posting my full win rate information, graph, etc in about a few months once I reach my 1000 hours lifetime at 1/3

I am in my early-mid 20’s so don’t have a lot a ton of hours yet.

I have about 200 hours live in Las Vegas and the rest is at my hometown casino which has 5 dollar max rake and 2 for promotions.

I play for mainly a part time income type thing in addition to my day job. I definitely take the game serious and want to improve. I usually play 2-3x/week (Friday-Sunday)

Over my last 800 hours roughly (I have about 965 hours live but my last 800 I started buying in for the max-300) I am winning 19.92/hr at 1/3 and lifetime at 1/3 16.35over 882 hours(I consider myself a generous tiper and will frequently tip 2-3 dollars for pots I shouldn’t)

What is usually the missing link or missing like step to bring the winrate to about 30/hr

I know this question might not be able to be answered (not knowing how I play and stuff) I consider myself a decent TAG. I generally try and play a lot in position. ISO weak players C bet on good flops.

I am working on squeezing more IP with dead money out there.

Even if I do play great/ run good I understand my game might not be beatable for $30/hr (due to tipping, short stacks, slow play, etc)
I remember those thousands of hours ago when I reached my 1000 hours of 1/3 NL at 9.6 bb/hr, and then my 2000 hours at 9.4 bb/hr. At that time, if someone with a 5.5 - 6.6 bb/hr winrate (like yours) woulda asked the same question, I wouldn't have naively answered something like "you're almost there, you probably just gotta plug up some leaks and tweak a few things".

But I would be embarrassed by those sorts of responses now, as I've learned that ~1000 hour sample sizes ain't ****. Like seriously, they are so lol and meaningless. You begin to realize that when you post a 1300 hour sample size of 4 bb/hr (same dude, playing the same way, in the same game, at << 1/2 winrate, wtf?). See my giraffes from a couple of months ago for lol's.

I think it was Richard Parker (or a previous incarnation of him) that sorta alluded to that to me early on (but I likely didn't listen). Really wish he was still around to follow up with him on that and give him props. If you search way back on this thread you might even find it, I'm too lazy too.

Not exactly sure what I'm trying to say, but in a rambling way I think I'm saying that there is a lot finer line than you likely realize at this point between vastly different winrates (and a lot of it will simply be variance over lol lifetime sample size). As tough as this is to say (especially from me who has a zillion different filters on my PokerJournal filtering my winrates eleventeen different ways): try not to sweat the winrate so much, as it probably doesn't mean nearly as much as you think it does.

IMO.

GgoodluckG
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:15 PM   #23587
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I remember those thousands of hours ago when I reached my 1000 hours of 1/3 NL at 9.6 bb/hr, and then my 2000 hours at 9.4 bb/hr. At that time, if someone with a 5.5 - 6.6 bb/hr winrate (like yours) woulda asked the same question, I wouldn't have naively answered something like "you're almost there, you probably just gotta plug up some leaks and tweak a few things".

But I would be embarrassed by those sorts of responses now, as I've learned that ~1000 hour sample sizes ain't ****. Like seriously, they are so lol and meaningless. You begin to realize that when you post a 1300 hour sample size of 4 bb/hr (same dude, playing the same way, in the same game, at << 1/2 winrate, wtf?). See my giraffes from a couple of months ago for lol's.

I think it was Richard Parker (or a previous incarnation of him) that sorta alluded to that to me early on (but I likely didn't listen). Really wish he was still around to follow up with him on that and give him props. If you search way back on this thread you might even find it, I'm too lazy too.

Not exactly sure what I'm trying to say, but in a rambling way I think I'm saying that there is a lot finer line than you likely realize at this point between vastly different winrates (and a lot of it will simply be variance over lol lifetime sample size). As tough as this is to say (especially from me who has a zillion different filters on my PokerJournal filtering my winrates eleventeen different ways): try not to sweat the winrate so much, as it probably doesn't mean nearly as much as you think it does.

IMO.

GgoodluckG
And Ill say what has been said here many times, when you play super tight and/or short stacked, more of your hands are all ins. You rely more on showdown winnings so you are at the mercy of the poker gods and will have a higher variation in win rates over certain time frames.

People who play more LAG and are good at it, meaning they have a higher win rate and more money is won without showdown, will have win rates that are more consistent over 1000 hour periods. 1000 hours is NOT lol sample size for everyone.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:25 PM   #23588
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mike, I haven't played a single on-line hand, but I'm fairly certain most on-liners would roll their eyes at any suggestion that 1000 hours x 30 hands/hour = 30,000 hands ain't a drop in the bucket.

GbutIdon'treallywanttogodownthatroad;asyouwereG
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:51 PM   #23589
XXX555666
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
And Ill say what has been said here many times, when you play super tight and/or short stacked, more of your hands are all ins. You rely more on showdown winnings so you are at the mercy of the poker gods and will have a higher variation in win rates over certain time frames.

People who play more LAG and are good at it, meaning they have a higher win rate and more money is won without showdown, will have win rates that are more consistent over 1000 hour periods. 1000 hours is NOT lol sample size for everyone.
I would definitely not call myself a LAG by any stretch. My last ~100 hours I have ran pretty good as well.
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:38 PM   #23590
MikeStarr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Mike, I haven't played a single on-line hand, but I'm fairly certain most on-liners would roll their eyes at any suggestion that 1000 hours x 30 hands/hour = 30,000 hands ain't a drop in the bucket.

GbutIdon'treallywanttogodownthatroad;asyouwereG
Online and live games don't compare at all. Live players are much worse making win rates much higher. The higher the win rate, the shorter time frame needed to hit your true win rate...or be close to it more consistently.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 04-15-2019 at 06:50 PM.
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:56 PM   #23591
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GG,

So after 1000 hrs your win rate was 9.6BBs and after 2000 hrs your win rate was 9.4 BBs (meaning your 2nd 1000 hrs had a win rate of 9.2BBs). You think that's a large variation in win rates? Your win rate dropped 4%. That's basically the same number as far as poker in concerned. Of course you're not going to hit the exact same number.

IIRC, your win rate dropped farther in the 3rd 1000 hr segment but your rake went up also right? When you account for that, it sounds to me like your win rate is pretty consistent but you're arguing the other way.

People who have win rates that vary all over the map in 1000 hour blocks have serious work to do on their game.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:21 PM   #23592
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Approaching 250 hours so far this year which is about average monthly volume for me as serious weekend warrior with day job.

Overall ok results, God damn have never experienced anything like the last 50 hours of 1/3. Went 1 for 5 winning sessions for just over -$3,400. Never been kicked in the teeth like that over 4,000 hours of tracked play. Combination of some horrible beats in the big pots followed by some tilt.

2 hands last session:
1) arrive at 8am on a Sunday buy in for Max 500. 2 orbits in drunk dude sits down with 20k in 1k chips. Gets change to play table Max. Plays awful is down to 300 quickly. Asks who wants to flip for stacks several times. 1 orbit later I 4bet jam over his 3bet with AK suited and lose to his KK. Buddy then leaves to go back to baccarat.

2) lose a 1k pot with J10 to Q9 on board of Q,9,8,7 when 9 comes on the river. The big money went in on the turn.

On bright side, I'm sun running at 2/5. Less hours because I only jump in when the game looks good.

Though maybe 1/2 is where I should spend all my time

On to some graphs. YTD overall, 2/5 , 1/3 yikes, and 1 session of 1/2.


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Last edited by ZippyThePinhead; 04-15-2019 at 11:29 PM.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:46 PM   #23593
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Doesn’t it seem like you should just play 2/5 while your confidence is high for that game? If you feel like you’re running well in that game it should help your game too.
Additionally, your game might just be better suited for 2/5. I think this is possible for certain players.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:53 PM   #23594
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I'm still very confident at 1/3. My lifetime hourly is still very good. More just showing how over a big enough sample, there will be short periods of wild variance.

I don't agree about some being better suited for a bigger game. That makes no sense to me.

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Old 04-16-2019, 12:04 AM   #23595
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It makes plenty of sense to me. My game at 2/5 is far superior than at 1/2.
I can’t focus or take 1/2 seriously enough to play it well for any prolonged amount of time.
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Old 04-16-2019, 01:42 AM   #23596
barney big nuts
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's your lifetime hourly? Whats the buy in and rake structure?
Props for being able to work a ft job and still get in so many hours.
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Old 04-16-2019, 02:04 AM   #23597
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
GG,

So after 1000 hrs your win rate was 9.6BBs and after 2000 hrs your win rate was 9.4 BBs (meaning your 2nd 1000 hrs had a win rate of 9.2BBs). You think that's a large variation in win rates? Your win rate dropped 4%. That's basically the same number as far as poker in concerned. Of course you're not going to hit the exact same number.

IIRC, your win rate dropped farther in the 3rd 1000 hr segment but your rake went up also right? When you account for that, it sounds to me like your win rate is pretty consistent but you're arguing the other way.

People who have win rates that vary all over the map in 1000 hour blocks have serious work to do on their game.
Not only did the rake go up, but he always says the players in the game got better. So it's not a matter of variance being some monster over 1000 games. Its simply that his game conditions changed and each block of 1000 hours probably accurately reflects his win rate in the game at that time.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:00 AM   #23598
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Originally Posted by barney big nuts View Post
What's your lifetime hourly? Whats the buy in and rake structure?
Props for being able to work a ft job and still get in so many hours.
Lifetime tracked is 7.86 bb/hr over 3,977 hours across all games and stakes.

Buy in and rake structures vary wildly as I travel a fair bit.

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Old 04-16-2019, 08:02 AM   #23599
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Well played Zippy!
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:40 AM   #23600
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
GG,

So after 1000 hrs your win rate was 9.6BBs and after 2000 hrs your win rate was 9.4 BBs (meaning your 2nd 1000 hrs had a win rate of 9.2BBs). You think that's a large variation in win rates? Your win rate dropped 4%. That's basically the same number as far as poker in concerned. Of course you're not going to hit the exact same number.

IIRC, your win rate dropped farther in the 3rd 1000 hr segment but your rake went up also right? When you account for that, it sounds to me like your win rate is pretty consistent but you're arguing the other way.

People who have win rates that vary all over the map in 1000 hour blocks have serious work to do on their game.
Just to clarify, I considered my winrates for the first 1000 hours and second 1000 hours identical.

But see my giraffes that I posted a couple of months ago here. The next ~1300 hours didn't go nearly as well, like 4 bb/hr. And those giraffes show stretches of ~12 bb/hr play versus ~4 bb/hr play and everything in-between, all over 1000+ hour stretches.

Yes, I have lots of (valid) excuses (increase in rake, less hands per hour, blah blah blah). But you can still produce some pretty wildly different 1000 hour stretches, and remember, this is coming from me where my nitty overall giraffe viewed from space looks like a constant 30 degree angle straight line.

GcluelessvariancenoobG
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