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Old 12-23-2019, 02:14 AM   #24726
Mr Spyutastic
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Thanks. Is that a typo? Wow, 13k in less than 100 hrs live is crazy to me.
A lot of it is from 2/5/10 and 5/10/20 so not particularly impressive.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:58 AM   #24727
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice volume Dumbo.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:06 AM   #24728
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Nice volume Dumbo.
Thanks! $$/hr. could be better and I'll be working on my game so I can cut back on the number of hours next year.
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Old 12-23-2019, 10:46 AM   #24729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Low volume this year, 1/3 stakes:

Hours Profit
202.83 $9,082

Total Stats

Total Hours
1619.54
Total Profit
$81,152.00
Hourly
$50.11
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Old 12-23-2019, 12:14 PM   #24730
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Thanks for sharing. Your yearly results are consistently impressive IMO. I'm sure we've played together before. Good to know who to look out for. That PLO is just insane. I really need to learn that game. My hours are so limited though, it just makes me want to stay in the comfort zone and just move up until I can't win.
Yeah there aren't many women playing 2/5 and the PLO game and beating both at that casino, so I assume it's pretty obvious who I am. Feel free to say hi if you want. The PLO game is far and away the best game in the casino, nothing comes close to the size of the game nor the number of donators willing to drop several thousand every time they play.

Prior to this year I had played 42 hours of PLO in 8 years; it's definitely a game I'm terrible at, but luckily almost everyone else is also terrible at it.
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Old 12-23-2019, 01:03 PM   #24731
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Suppose a player has a win rate of 10 bb/hour and an hourly standard deviation of 80 bb.

Suppose further that this player follows a rigid schedule and plays 6-hour sessions when they play, without regard to wins, losses, locking up wins, or stop-losses.

Then the probability distribution of this player's sessions will be close to Gaussian (central limit theorem, lots of hands played) with a mean of 60 bb and a standard deviation of 296 bb.

From this we can compute (or look up) the likelihood of a winning session, through the use of the cumulative distribution function.

It turns out that our hypothetical player is going to be winning 58% of the sessions they play and losing 42%, over the long run.

This is going to vary with session length, and it gets trickier when you play sessions of varying lengths. And you can fudge the data by doing things like locking up wins or playing long sessions when you are behind until you get back to even. For a given win rate you can manufacture wins, thus having a record of sessions of lots of short wins and fewer but rather larger losses.

So having a 75% winning session rate is attainable -- if you manufacture your wins.

Last edited by AlanBostick; 12-23-2019 at 01:13 PM.
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Old 12-23-2019, 01:58 PM   #24732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I doubt anyone is getting from 58 to 75% by manufacturing wins unless they're literally creating multiple sessions per winning session or something dumb.
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Old 12-23-2019, 02:26 PM   #24733
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***



Picked up the game again this October after nearly a decade off. Would have liked more hours but the casino is over an hours drive away and I have a day job. This is almost all 1/2, thinking of stepping up to 2/5 in 2020.
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Old 12-23-2019, 02:32 PM   #24734
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My session win % is 67.5% over 300 sessions and 1600 hours, with very little manufacturing as I stick to a pretty rigid schedule in my sessions.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:29 PM   #24735
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mine may be on the low side because I often play lots of shorter "sessions" throughout the day. Plus it's hard to win consistently at PLO. It used to be closer to 65% but has taken a nosedive since I started playing PLO close to full time the past few months.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:34 PM   #24736
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
My session win % is 67.5% over 300 sessions and 1600 hours, with very little manufacturing as I stick to a pretty rigid schedule in my sessions.
Mine is 68% over about 4 times more hours than that. Point being that high 60%s is not a crazy unbelievable number. Good players can have lower win % numbers also. Its very style dependent just like StnDev is.

Individual years its
72%
67%
69%
66%

Last edited by MikeStarr; 12-23-2019 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:05 PM   #24737
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Low volume this year, 1/3 stakes:

Hours Profit
202.83 $9,082

Total Stats

Total Hours
1619.54
Total Profit
$81,152.00
Hourly
$50.11
Did you just say this was 1/3? Solid hourly over a pretty good sample if it is.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:08 PM   #24738
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Did you just say this was 1/3? Solid hourly over a pretty good sample if it is.
Yeah a majority is 1/3 with a good structure (think Wynn) and about a third is other Vegas 1/2 or 1/3.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:16 PM   #24739
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Session win % is a silly metric on a macro level, because it has almost no bearing on the micro level.

It also creates mind-eff situations such as locking up wins or chasing losses, both can have adverse effect on WR.

Lastly for any somewhat meaningful size data that isn't too large, if you remove top 10% of winning sessions vs random 10% winning sessions, you will likely see a rather big difference in WR.
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Old 12-23-2019, 05:35 PM   #24740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Yeah a majority is 1/3 with a good structure (think Wynn) and about a third is other Vegas 1/2 or 1/3.
And I thought I was a bankroll nit. Well played though.
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Old 12-23-2019, 07:47 PM   #24741
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
played my last session of poker for the year last night so time for my annual results post.

Live in home poker room

2/3 (500) 120 hours +$7309 $60.90ph
2/5/10 (1000) 291 hours +$17,701 $60.75ph

Live while travelling

1/2 Lon (400) 19 hours +100 GBP GBP 5.26ph
2/5 Melb (500) 25 hours - $260 $-10.40 ph

Live cash total

+$24,930 in 456 hours

Online hold em

3/6 (600) 7470 hands +$6164

PLO

Live 1/3 (300) 4 hours +$300
Online 1/2 (400) 1850 hands -$700


Stupid ****ing live MTTs (inc swaps)

1/17 cashes - $10,470


Total Profit $20,224

Last poker session of the year has been had...here is my annual results post


1/2 (400) 14 hours +1333 $95.2 ph
(I play 1/2 when on business in London)

2/3 (500) 46 hours +521 = $11.32 ph
(home poker room)

2/5 (500/700/1000) 58 hours +2314 = $39.9ph
(Melbourne & Vegas)

2/5/10 (1000) 233 hours +5325 = $22.8ph
(main game home poker room)

Total cash +9494 at $29ph

Tournaments

Satellites - 2 tickets from 8 entries +$2880

MTTs 0 cashes from 6 entries -$9700


Comments.

my online app game has dried up, which is a huge shame...I'm looking for another one, but I just don't trust the apps unless I know the people organising

my main game has gotten tougher. very reggy and I'm often sitting with 8 players I recognise and have played with before...all of whom would beat 2/3 and half of them playing for a living. I actually enjoy the battle with them and it's interesting poker playing with guys I have 500 hours + with and adapting to their play and their perspective of my play etc. I sometimes don't sit it if it's too bad and I definitely think (despite this year's results), that I could win more at 2/3...particularly since my room just introduced a 2/3/6 (600) game. But I also play for enjoyment and as a semi social occasion at the end of a busy and often stressful week and I'm friendly with many of the pros/regs at my main game...plus I enjoy the battle more than the more straightforward 2/3

I don't think I've run very well this year. I was in a cash downswing for the first half and I honestly don't think I've had any kind of heater at all the entire year....Nothing hugely noteworthy, but it seems the entire year I've had my biggest hands in single raised pots in early position or never got action etc etc. I guess what I'm saying is that I've rarely coolered people and hardly had any gifts.

I haven't worked as hard on my poker this year and I haven't played as many hours or hands...the lack of online and fewer hours means I'm playing more straightforward more of the time and probably taking fewer risks.

MTTs continue to be a blight on my results. I made day 2 of Millionaire Maker with a good stack but lost all ins with AK twice in the first half hour and that was that. I'm confident that the results will come eventually, but the variance combined with the tiny volume I play means that it may be years...I have no expectations, just hopes and dreams - two of the regs from my main game won 6 figures this year and I'll continue to play them, so long as my cash winnings are funding them
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Old 12-23-2019, 09:13 PM   #24742
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Going to pollute this thread of great volume and wins with some small sample rec losses

1/2&1/3: 104 hours -$1812
2/5: 16 hours -$835

Finally totaled my session notes and oh wow I definitely thought I had more hours.

Came back to poker after playing maybe 3 times since Black Friday. Before Black Friday I played online limit at a good winrate, but had little to no NL skills. Started around March playing in a big 1/2 home game. Then going to local cardroom to play 1/3. Studying my balls off and participating in strat threads hoping people disagree with what I suggest and argue out why so I learn stuff from them.

About $900 of my losses at 1/2&1/3 were total noobing and LAG tilt the first few sessions. Then I had a lot of good sessions in the cardroom. But I went to Vegas with some friends and played drunk and spewy and dropped $1300 (actually went -2500 one day then +1200 the next when we cut the nonsense). So I'm thinking if I put in more volume and keep studying that 2020 will work out well.

2/5 is lol sample size. Had two +130ish bb sessions then a rough -400bb session (flop top set v backdoor flush and flop two pair vs set). 66% cash rate lol.

Goal is to get 400 hrs in for 2020. Obviously want those to be profitable but I'm not going to set winrate goals until I have some decent baseline. Going to focus on playing well and studying.
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Old 12-23-2019, 10:08 PM   #24743
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by reaper6788 View Post
Going to pollute this thread of great volume and wins with some small sample rec losses

1/2&1/3: 104 hours -$1812
2/5: 16 hours -$835

Finally totaled my session notes and oh wow I definitely thought I had more hours.

Came back to poker after playing maybe 3 times since Black Friday. Before Black Friday I played online limit at a good winrate, but had little to no NL skills. Started around March playing in a big 1/2 home game. Then going to local cardroom to play 1/3. Studying my balls off and participating in strat threads hoping people disagree with what I suggest and argue out why so I learn stuff from them.

About $900 of my losses at 1/2&1/3 were total noobing and LAG tilt the first few sessions. Then I had a lot of good sessions in the cardroom. But I went to Vegas with some friends and played drunk and spewy and dropped $1300 (actually went -2500 one day then +1200 the next when we cut the nonsense). So I'm thinking if I put in more volume and keep studying that 2020 will work out well.

2/5 is lol sample size. Had two +130ish bb sessions then a rough -400bb session (flop top set v backdoor flush and flop two pair vs set). 66% cash rate lol.

Goal is to get 400 hrs in for 2020. Obviously want those to be profitable but I'm not going to set winrate goals until I have some decent baseline. Going to focus on playing well and studying.
good luck on your poker journey...it's a fun hobby

I don't want to be a dick, but you have to be really careful with the bolded....specifically the tendency to think 'I'm actually a winning player when I play properly...it's only when I run bad/play while drunk or messing around that I lose'.

Not that this is specifically wrong or inaccurate for you or any of us and I'm not saying you think of it like this. Just that it's a dangerous form of self deception to lapse into and people who do this will often start not including the drunk/fun sessions in their win rates and all of a sudden will feel they're a winning player when they're not. It's all one long session and you're responsible for your play every time you sit at the table.
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Old 12-23-2019, 10:28 PM   #24744
Mr Spyutastic
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Last poker session of the year has been had...here is my annual results post


1/2 (400) 14 hours +1333 $95.2 ph
(I play 1/2 when on business in London)

2/3 (500) 46 hours +521 = $11.32 ph
(home poker room)

2/5 (500/700/1000) 58 hours +2314 = $39.9ph
(Melbourne & Vegas)

2/5/10 (1000) 233 hours +5325 = $22.8ph
(main game home poker room)

Total cash +9494 at $29ph

Tournaments

Satellites - 2 tickets from 8 entries +$2880

MTTs 0 cashes from 6 entries -$9700


Comments.

my online app game has dried up, which is a huge shame...I'm looking for another one, but I just don't trust the apps unless I know the people organising

my main game has gotten tougher. very reggy and I'm often sitting with 8 players I recognise and have played with before...all of whom would beat 2/3 and half of them playing for a living. I actually enjoy the battle with them and it's interesting poker playing with guys I have 500 hours + with and adapting to their play and their perspective of my play etc. I sometimes don't sit it if it's too bad and I definitely think (despite this year's results), that I could win more at 2/3...particularly since my room just introduced a 2/3/6 (600) game. But I also play for enjoyment and as a semi social occasion at the end of a busy and often stressful week and I'm friendly with many of the pros/regs at my main game...plus I enjoy the battle more than the more straightforward 2/3

I don't think I've run very well this year. I was in a cash downswing for the first half and I honestly don't think I've had any kind of heater at all the entire year....Nothing hugely noteworthy, but it seems the entire year I've had my biggest hands in single raised pots in early position or never got action etc etc. I guess what I'm saying is that I've rarely coolered people and hardly had any gifts.

I haven't worked as hard on my poker this year and I haven't played as many hours or hands...the lack of online and fewer hours means I'm playing more straightforward more of the time and probably taking fewer risks.

MTTs continue to be a blight on my results. I made day 2 of Millionaire Maker with a good stack but lost all ins with AK twice in the first half hour and that was that. I'm confident that the results will come eventually, but the variance combined with the tiny volume I play means that it may be years...I have no expectations, just hopes and dreams - two of the regs from my main game won 6 figures this year and I'll continue to play them, so long as my cash winnings are funding them
You and me both. A big live tourney win is the dragon I'm forever chasing.
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Old 12-23-2019, 10:56 PM   #24745
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
good luck on your poker journey...it's a fun hobby



I don't want to be a dick, but you have to be really careful with the bolded....specifically the tendency to think 'I'm actually a winning player when I play properly...it's only when I run bad/play while drunk or messing around that I lose'.



Not that this is specifically wrong or inaccurate for you or any of us and I'm not saying you think of it like this. Just that it's a dangerous form of self deception to lapse into and people who do this will often start not including the drunk/fun sessions in their win rates and all of a sudden will feel they're a winning player when they're not. It's all one long session and you're responsible for your play every time you sit at the table.
You're not being a dick. This is very true, which I why I still include those sessions in my results

This is just me reasoning out that I think getting to net winner is attainable.
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Old 12-24-2019, 12:47 AM   #24746
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Learn to win while drunk. Then you'll be happy to include those sessions in your hourly calculation. I don't even think it's that -EV to drink. If you adjust properly could even be +EV if you're stacking someone every time you have a big hand cause no one wants to fold to the "drunk idiot". For me personally, before the 10th drink I can't really recall alcohol making me do anything stupid/spewy. After the 10th drink...well I probably wouldn't be able to recall it anyways

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Old 12-24-2019, 11:42 AM   #24747
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I almost always have a drink in front of me when I play; it’s more than just enhancing my image to get paid, it’s about helping to facilitate a good game and being someone people don’t mind playing with or losing to. Pretty sure the optics of losing to someone who is chatting and drinking is better than losing to someone with iPad/headphones and green tea.
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Old 12-25-2019, 04:34 PM   #24748
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
I almost always have a drink in front of me when I play; it’s more than just enhancing my image to get paid, it’s about helping to facilitate a good game and being someone people don’t mind playing with or losing to. Pretty sure the optics of losing to someone who is chatting and drinking is better than losing to someone with iPad/headphones and green tea.
100 percent.
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Old 12-25-2019, 04:48 PM   #24749
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Would you still drink if you had to pay $7 for a beer? I definitely found it way more common for people to suggest/buy a round of drinks in Vegas than anywhere in the UK. I completely agree that it's way better optics to drink beer than green tea/coffee etc though
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Old 12-25-2019, 06:00 PM   #24750
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Suppose a player has a win rate of 10 bb/hour and an hourly standard deviation of 80 bb.

Suppose further that this player follows a rigid schedule and plays 6-hour sessions when they play, without regard to wins, losses, locking up wins, or stop-losses.

Then the probability distribution of this player's sessions will be close to Gaussian (central limit theorem, lots of hands played) with a mean of 60 bb and a standard deviation of 296 bb.

From this we can compute (or look up) the likelihood of a winning session, through the use of the cumulative distribution function.

It turns out that our hypothetical player is going to be winning 58% of the sessions they play and losing 42%, over the long run.

This is going to vary with session length, and it gets trickier when you play sessions of varying lengths. And you can fudge the data by doing things like locking up wins or playing long sessions when you are behind until you get back to even. For a given win rate you can manufacture wins, thus having a record of sessions of lots of short wins and fewer but rather larger losses.

So having a 75% winning session rate is attainable -- if you manufacture your wins.
Thanks for this insight. I certainly don't have the stats background that you do but this was very helpful.
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