Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
A poker player getting upset over the variance not going his way, when he knows in advance that it is going to happen, is like the guy who watches the weather report in the morning. There is a 90% chance of rain. He prepares to drive 25 miles to meet friends for dinner. The sky doesn't look threatening, so he doesn't take an umbrealla, much less a raincoat. When he gets to his destination, he finds himself in the parking lot in the middle of a downpour & gets a pissed off.
Not exactly.
Most people have accepted the fact that 90% chance of rain means that it will rain even though it isn't currently raining, because of few simple reasons 1) most people aren't trained in meteorology 2) most people perceive high likelihood the same as it is going to happen 3) most people don't care enough to register into their memory the few instances that it didn't rain.
Let's face it, average people just aren't equipped to deal with numbers and variance. Is there another aspect of our daily lives that variance is recognized and observed?
Do we think football plays are of variance and that coaches are game managers who are in charge of making +EV decisions? Heck no. We think of coaching decisions as either right or wrong and nothing in between. If a coach calls a play that ends without advancing, that coach has failed. Nobody cares that the play had the highest +EV, just that it failed.
I do not think variance is something that most players can just accept as part of the game, and that the best decision can be one that ends in a loss. When one can embrace losing just as much as winning, I believe that's when he can think above variance.