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Old 11-17-2015, 12:22 PM   #11751
ZuneIt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
I dropped 6k in 40 hours once at 2-5. The further that gets in my rear view mirror, the more it looks like spew to me.
Or, you called large all-in bets ott [into an already large pot], with 45% equity & your call rep'd only ~30% of the money in the pot & you didn't win any of them?

I say the following whenever I get the chance, because I have had not had a major downswing in some time & I'm sure I'm due & I want to be prepared for it:

A poker player getting upset over the variance not going his way, when he knows in advance that it is going to happen, is like the guy who watches the weather report in the morning. There is a 90% chance of rain. He prepares to drive 25 miles to meet friends for dinner. The sky doesn't look threatening, so he doesn't take an umbrealla, much less a raincoat. When he gets to his destination, he finds himself in the parking lot in the middle of a downpour & gets a pissed off.
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Old 11-17-2015, 12:35 PM   #11752
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Do you keep a journal on the regs?

I started doing this around 3 months ago. Figuring out their ranges from various positions and what various pf sizing means should be pretty useful. Also been spending time away from the table coming up with some exploitive lines against specific regs: eg. plan to bluff raise a bet/folde, 3 bet light against the old guy who will give me too much respect, float ''one and done c betters'', double barrel the guy that calls the flop light and folds the turn, etc etc.
I use PokerJournal to track players as best as possible. I'm constantly taking notes on players while at the table and trying to compile as many interesting hands played by them so that I can get a better handle on what they're all about, and then eventually hopefully spot enough patterns so I have an ok idea of how to go about playing them in a hand. Even being able to quickly look up a player when he sits down at the table and knowing whether he is nitty vs bluffy vs etc. is helpful.

Having said that, my game overall plays quite loose / multiway. A lot of nights simply do boil down *mostly* to playing make-a-hand poker better than my opponents.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 11-17-2015, 12:48 PM   #11753
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
A poker player getting upset over the variance not going his way, when he knows in advance that it is going to happen, is like the guy who watches the weather report in the morning. There is a 90% chance of rain. He prepares to drive 25 miles to meet friends for dinner. The sky doesn't look threatening, so he doesn't take an umbrealla, much less a raincoat. When he gets to his destination, he finds himself in the parking lot in the middle of a downpour & gets a pissed off.
Not exactly.

Most people have accepted the fact that 90% chance of rain means that it will rain even though it isn't currently raining, because of few simple reasons 1) most people aren't trained in meteorology 2) most people perceive high likelihood the same as it is going to happen 3) most people don't care enough to register into their memory the few instances that it didn't rain.

Let's face it, average people just aren't equipped to deal with numbers and variance. Is there another aspect of our daily lives that variance is recognized and observed?

Do we think football plays are of variance and that coaches are game managers who are in charge of making +EV decisions? Heck no. We think of coaching decisions as either right or wrong and nothing in between. If a coach calls a play that ends without advancing, that coach has failed. Nobody cares that the play had the highest +EV, just that it failed.

I do not think variance is something that most players can just accept as part of the game, and that the best decision can be one that ends in a loss. When one can embrace losing just as much as winning, I believe that's when he can think above variance.
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Old 11-17-2015, 03:25 PM   #11754
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Not exactly.

Most people have accepted the fact that 90% chance of rain means that it will rain even though it isn't currently raining, because of few simple reasons 1) most people aren't trained in meteorology 2) most people perceive high likelihood the same as it is going to happen 3) most people don't care enough to register into their memory the few instances that it didn't rain.

Let's face it, average people just aren't equipped to deal with numbers and variance. Is there another aspect of our daily lives that variance is recognized and observed?

Do we think football plays are of variance and that coaches are game managers who are in charge of making +EV decisions? Heck no. We think of coaching decisions as either right or wrong and nothing in between. If a coach calls a play that ends without advancing, that coach has failed. Nobody cares that the play had the highest +EV, just that it failed.

I do not think variance is something that most players can just accept as part of the game, and that the best decision can be one that ends in a loss. When one can embrace losing just as much as winning, I believe that's when he can think above variance.
I think in terms of probabilities and variance regarding coaching decisions.
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Old 11-17-2015, 03:30 PM   #11755
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I think in terms of probabilities and variance regarding coaching decisions.
That's because you are a poker player.
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Old 11-17-2015, 03:38 PM   #11756
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Or, you called large all-in bets ott [into an already large pot], with 45% equity & your call rep'd only ~30% of the money in the pot & you didn't win any of them?

I say the following whenever I get the chance, because I have had not had a major downswing in some time & I'm sure I'm due & I want to be prepared for it:

A poker player getting upset over the variance not going his way, when he knows in advance that it is going to happen, is like the guy who watches the weather report in the morning. There is a 90% chance of rain. He prepares to drive 25 miles to meet friends for dinner. The sky doesn't look threatening, so he doesn't take an umbrealla, much less a raincoat. When he gets to his destination, he finds himself in the parking lot in the middle of a downpour & gets a pissed off.
The point he was making is that most 'downswings' involve bad play
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Old 11-17-2015, 06:10 PM   #11757
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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The point he was making is that most 'downswings' involve bad play
Yes.

Sorry if my wording was too subtle.

Bad play, bad table /seat selection, bad whatever.

We tend to assume our play and situation is relatively consistent and our wins and losses can be chalked up to variance. For a lot of us, when we face tough variance for an extended period some part of our game suffers. If our edge was relatively thin to begin with....
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Old 11-18-2015, 12:10 AM   #11758
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It hasn't changed my mind, but I do intend to put in a significantly larger number of hours at 2/5 before making a decision. At least 1,000 or so (while continuing to save from my primary job). No need to make a rash decision and jump the gun.

Nice work buddy! Wish you all the best. Keep on crushin
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Old 11-18-2015, 02:17 AM   #11759
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

decided to be risky and invested my emergency roll in the market.

WEEEE!
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Old 11-18-2015, 02:20 AM   #11760
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lol are you just going for short-term investments? I can't imagine your going to keep your "emergency roll" in the market for 5+ years
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Old 11-18-2015, 02:37 AM   #11761
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Well.

My portfolio is diversified in several bond and equity sectors.

Our income far surpassed our means, and are adequately insured.

No kids, warranty on home, rental income etc

So I feel comfortable taking on some more risk
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Old 11-18-2015, 03:53 AM   #11762
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well if there's anywhere with more results oriented thinking and ego than poker it's the stock market, so post your results here!

Spoiler:
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Old 11-18-2015, 05:19 AM   #11763
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I don't get it.

Didn't feel like I was being egotistical
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Old 11-18-2015, 05:35 AM   #11764
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Didn't mean to imply that you were, just commenting on the general atmosphere in that circle (and poker's).
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Old 11-18-2015, 05:36 AM   #11765
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it wasn't a dig at you, but an accurate comment about most people messing around in the stock market
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Old 11-18-2015, 06:58 AM   #11766
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Ah

Sorry for hasty conclusion
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Old 11-20-2015, 07:41 PM   #11767
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Portfolio up 2% in 3 days.

I think this is a sustainable return
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Old 11-21-2015, 01:27 AM   #11768
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Portfolio up 2% in 3 days.

I think this is a sustainable return
Nice! I can see your $200.00 portfolio doing just that!
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Old 11-21-2015, 02:14 AM   #11769
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Good job deadfish, this is 100% due to your skill at picking stocks.
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Old 11-21-2015, 02:39 AM   #11770
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Checking stocks daily and computing RoR is a great way to do it
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Old 11-21-2015, 04:02 AM   #11771
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I bought 25k of GPRO at $25 thinking all the bad news was baked in. Market has been hammering the stock last 2-3 months so it looks like I'll be holding initials a spike.
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Old 11-21-2015, 04:18 AM   #11772
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Just bad luck if your stock falls.

Somewhat related: I have a friend in China who decided that gopro was the next innovation in porn, so he's purchased 20 or so domain names that are "gopro(insert sexual act or position)"

I pointed out some of the more obvious logic fails and we had a good lol.
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Old 11-21-2015, 06:56 AM   #11773
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

gg, I'm now buying every domain name related to that
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Old 11-21-2015, 10:47 AM   #11774
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I bought 25k of GPRO at $25 thinking all the bad news was baked in. Market has been hammering the stock last 2-3 months so it looks like I'll be holding initials a spike.
Really?! I mean really?!!

Have you ever heard of not investing more than 3-5% of your portfolio in 1 stock? Preferably 2%? Aren't you the guy in his mid 20s thinkin' about quitin' your job & goin' pro?

If you are, and you have 625k to toy around with, congratz!!! on 'livin' it large'!
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Old 11-21-2015, 10:50 AM   #11775
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Looks like he already did gopro.
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