Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-04-2015, 01:49 PM   #11626
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
HH1 - hate the river bet, what are we repping here?
Pot controlled AK/KQs that is going for value on the river vs. QQ-TT. It was pretty thin and I almost talked myself out of it and just taking the showdown but then I went full-******. Though if he actually has QQ-TT, I'm not sure he's calling so Idk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
HH3 - whatareyagonnado
Should have stop-and-go check/shoved the flop or shoved turn if he checked back flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
HH4 - hard to get value H/U with top set on a board like that - how many sd's is v gonna have?
Yah I know this was just me being frustrated that I waste AA *AND* top set UTG where it's basically impossible to get paid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
HH5 - fold pre to the 3!, we're not deep enough. AP it's fine but lol expecting a K to fold with an SPR of less than 4.
Agree fold to 3!. Frustration was setting in -- these hands all happened within like 30 minutes and then this beautiful flop and dude doesn't even flinch. Probably would have called it off even if I flopped the flush which woulda been great.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
HH1 - Never betting this flop, V is highly unlikely to fold flop and you can't really bet any turn card since there's a good chance V c/shove AK/KK/AA. Also proof that the UTG limp/raise is still always KK+ even at higher stakes.
Yah I kinda thought flop was my only chance to win it then picked up the NFD so just saw a free river and missed. Probably shoulda checked river but the guy played it so passively I thought I could get folds from QQ-TT.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2015, 02:07 PM   #11627
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

AK vs QQ hand, come on Johnny. You got your money in as a favorite. Check/shoving flop and folding out AK is results-oriented and is a sub-EV line.
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2015, 03:47 PM   #11628
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I know I know - results oriented, but maybe not the worst idea in the world if he has 16 combos of AK vs. 12 combos of AA-KK and should theoretically fold some of those AK combos to a 5! preflop 100 BB's deep.

Plus I'll outflop him 2/3 of the time and a guy that 4!'s a large 3! over a straddle with AK is most likely firing out on the flop which makes for a great check/raise
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2015, 06:44 PM   #11629
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The AK vs QQ hand he should never ever ever ever be folding to a 5! 100bbs deep. And especially not theoretically. Not to mention it was a straddled pot...

And yeah don't call 3! with 65ss and then act like you're Repping sets and how can he call me there. The shove is fine but expect to get called a high % of the time there.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2015, 08:28 PM   #11630
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale View Post
The AK vs QQ hand he should never ever ever ever be folding to a 5! 100bbs deep. And especially not theoretically. Not to mention it was a straddled pot...

And yeah don't call 3! with 65ss and then act like you're Repping sets and how can he call me there. The shove is fine but expect to get called a high % of the time there.
QQ is the absolute bottom of my shove range there. How exactly is AKo a standard call in that spot? He was in for $250 and has to call $750 more to win $1310 or 1.75:1 odds on his call vs. a range consisting of 6 combos of QQ, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of AA and maybe 2 combos of AKs.

And I'm not surprised he called with AK vs. 65s I was just surprised how instantly he called. Overcalling twice I think 66 and 55 make up a good portion of my range for shoving flop (more so than my actual hand since I shouldn't have seen the flop with those cards anyway).
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 01:15 AM   #11631
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Vs a range of QQ+ and AK he only needs 1.57:1 to call.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 02:13 AM   #11632
Pork Fri Rize
Pooh-Bah
 
Pork Fri Rize's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Elbow reconstructive surgery center
Posts: 5,321
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lol HH1 wtf @ V's c/c on river????
Pork Fri Rize is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 04:02 AM   #11633
D.M.O.U.
grinder
 
D.M.O.U.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 442
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Its T/T, 100bb in a straddled pot, good players aren't going to fold AKo in that spot vs other good players
D.M.O.U. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 06:34 AM   #11634
NeverLosesAtPoker
banned
 
NeverLosesAtPoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: On TwoPlusTwo
Posts: 4,448
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Limp re-raise from UTG is nearly always AA/KK. In general this is a fold even if he has been 3betting a lot. 65ss is a fold too. If you aren't rolled for this game (I don't think you are) you should probably only be continuing with the goods or draws to the goods otherwise you end up in some very marginal spots that are going to be high variance. The QQ hand was only 53bbs deep (straddled to $20 and you opened to $100)
NeverLosesAtPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 11:32 AM   #11635
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
Its T/T, 100bb in a straddled pot, good players aren't going to fold AKo in that spot vs other good players
What kind of logic is this?

So don't fold AK if you are playing against a good player, else you are not a good player?
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 11:58 AM   #11636
turtle82
adept
 
turtle82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 897
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
What kind of logic is this?

So don't fold AK if you are playing against a good player, else you are not a good player?
Yep sounds about right
turtle82 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 01:00 PM   #11637
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Past the 2,500 hour mark at live 1/3 NL last night.

Overall, the picture looks fine: 8.17 bb/hr

But, on closer inspection, the writing might be on the wall (???)...

The first 1,774 hours (admittedly stopping right before my worst downswing): 10.12 bb/hr

The last 732 hours (admittedly including my two poor downswings): 3.45 bb/hr

Ouch!

GnotcompletelysureIknowhowtobeatmygameforareasonab lerateanymoreG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 02:15 PM   #11638
PokerPrince
old hand
 
PokerPrince's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,806
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

[QUOTE=johnnyBuz;48574554]QQ is the absolute bottom of my shove range there. How exactly is AKo a standard call in that spot? He was in for $250 and has to call $750 more to win $1310 or 1.75:1 odds on his call vs. a range consisting of 6 combos of QQ, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of AA and maybe 2 combos of AKs.


You're playing with 48bb's because of the straddle. It costs your opponent $710 to win a pot of $1980(960+960+10+10+20+20). He needs 35.85% equity to break even on a call. His AKo has 38.8% equity vs a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo. His call is totally standard.
PokerPrince is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 04:52 PM   #11639
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPrince View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
QQ is the absolute bottom of my shove range there. How exactly is AKo a standard call in that spot? He was in for $250 and has to call $750 more to win $1310 or 1.75:1 odds on his call vs. a range consisting of 6 combos of QQ, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of AA and maybe 2 combos of AKs.

You're playing with 48bb's because of the straddle. It costs your opponent $710 to win a pot of $1980(960+960+10+10+20+20). He needs 35.85% equity to break even on a call. His AKo has 38.8% equity vs a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo. His call is totally standard.
Ok! 2.95% overlay.

How nasty can the variance be to our bankroll in a situation like this?
Reason I ask: Chan, on his way to win his 2nd WSOP in a row, won 12 coin flips in a row when it was down to 2 tables.

He did this when either he or his opponent was all-in, one of them had a PP & the other AK. Those 12 coin flips he won helped build his huge chip lead he had going into the final table.

Does anyone know how to do the math to compute the required bankroll to chase these 3% overlays? What if we make a mistake once every 9 occurrences & our opponent would only do this with AKs?
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:21 PM   #11640
Love2Win
stranger
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 14
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
The first 1,774 hours (admittedly stopping right before my worst downswing): 10.12 bb/hr

The last 732 hours (admittedly including my two poor downswings): 3.45 bb/hr
You can prove most things with stats, but you're decision to split 1774/732 for the purposes of this post is presumably based on that being the start of a major downswing.

Why not compare 1250v1250?
Love2Win is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:21 PM   #11641
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The thing is you can't calculate bankroll requirements on what you're suggesting.

We're not only flipping coins when playing poker. This is just a very very small part of the variance involved when playing a solid aggressive game.

That being said 3% is a pretty nice equity edge. Def don't pass these up in cash games when properly rolled.

Casino corporations build empires on much less of an edge.

And to your last statement it comes down to understanding your opponents range. Is he competent? Aggressive? A regular? At 5/10 or 10/10 if these things are true he never has only Aks or AA.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:27 PM   #11642
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPrince View Post
You're playing with 48bb's because of the straddle. It costs your opponent $710 to win a pot of (1980 * (960+960+10+10+20+20). He needs 35.85% equity to break even on a call. His AKo has 38.8% equity vs a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo. His call is totally standard.
FWIW, your equity calculation is including 7 combos of AKo that I wouldn't be shoving with (only the 2 remaining AKs)

Idk ... if I am putting my stack in the middle with AK, I would like to be the one MAKING the all-in bet, not simply calling and hoping I'm not completely ****ed
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:32 PM   #11643
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If you're not willing to call off your 100bbs Pre with AK in a 5/10 or bigger game at times then you're probably not properly rolled for the game. Strong players will eat you alive.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:53 PM   #11644
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Love2Win View Post
You can prove most things with stats, but you're decision to split 1774/732 for the purposes of this post is presumably based on that being the start of a major downswing.

Why not compare 1250v1250?
Ya, I was more posting these just to show the different runs you can go on. The split point was absolutely purposely chosen to illustrate this (right before my worst downswing), so admittedly not a fair arbitrary split point. Still, I do believe the game I'm playing in is headed in a worse direction as these results suggest.

Basically, I've posted a lot of poker-is-easy winrates in this thread, so I thought it was my duty to also post the poker-ain't-necessarily-easy ones as well to be fair.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:54 PM   #11645
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale View Post
If you're not willing to call off your 100bbs Pre with AK in a 5/10 or bigger game at times then you're probably not properly rolled for the game. Strong players will eat you alive.
Key phrase being "at times."

I don't think calling a 5! from a guy that has VPIP three times in 75 minutes would qualify as one of those times though.

You're right, I am not rolled for 10/10. However, I'm glad to see that once I get there I can still expect to see the loose sloppy play that occurs at 1/2 and 2/5.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 05:58 PM   #11646
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerprince
You're playing with 48bb's because of the straddle. It costs your opponent $710 to win a pot of $1980(960+960+10+10+20+20). He needs 35.85% equity to break even on a call. His AKo has 38.8% equity vs a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo. His call is totally standard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zuneit
Ok! 2.95% overlay.

How nasty can the variance be to our bankroll in a situation like this?
Reason I ask: Chan, on his way to win his 2nd WSOP in a row, won 12 coin flips in a row when it was down to 2 tables.

He did this when either he or his opponent was all-in, one of them had a PP & the other AK. Those 12 coin flips he won helped build his huge chip lead he had going into the final table.

Does anyone know how to do the math to compute the required bankroll to chase these 3% overlays? What if we make a mistake once every 9 occurrences & our opponent would only do this with AKs?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pots-For-Sale View Post
The thing is you can't calculate bankroll requirements on what you're suggesting.

We're not only flipping coins when playing poker. This is just a very very small part of the variance involved when playing a solid aggressive game.

That being said 3% is a pretty nice equity edge. Def don't pass these up in cash games when properly rolled.


Why would one pass it up if they are properly rolled?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pots-for-sale
Casino corporations build empires on much less of an edge.
They have a decent bankroll, no?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pots-for-sale
And to your last statement it comes down to understanding your opponents range. Is he competent? Aggressive? A regular? At 5/10 or 10/10 if these things are true he never has only Aks or AA.
I understand this. Who, other than rich recreational players, play 5/10 NLHE without that understanding?

I gather from your answer, that you don't know what size bankroll you need to withstand the variance? Chan has already proven that you can lose 12 coin flips in a row * 100BBs is 1200 BBs * $10.00 = $12,000.00

Now add that to the variance of being on a downswing........ and we come 360 degrees back to my question:

How large of a bankroll do you need to be chasing these small edges that is nothing but a guesstimate?

You talk about how they'll eat you alive if you're not properly rolled, but can you tell me what a proper roll is?
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 06:07 PM   #11647
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Key phrase being "at times."

I don't think calling a 5! from a guy that has VPIP three times in 75 minutes would qualify as one of those times though.

You're right, I am not rolled for 10/10. However, I'm glad to see that once I get there I can still expect to see the loose sloppy play that occurs at 1/2 and 2/5.

Apparently he was correct no? Did u or did you not 5! All in with QQ? If you're only stacking off KK+ and AKs or something you're leaving money on the table 100bbs deep. That's why the guy snapped called you. It's the most standard spot in the whole wide world. What's insane is that you were surprised he snap called u with AK.

Good luck sitting around in a $10 blind game and nut peddling your way to a nice winrate.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 06:09 PM   #11648
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
[/B][/I]

Why would one pass it up if they are properly rolled?



They have a decent bankroll, no?



I understand this. Who, other than rich recreational players, play 5/10 NLHE without that understanding?

I gather from your answer, that you don't know what size bankroll you need to withstand the variance? Chan has already proven that you can lose 12 coin flips in a row * 100BBs is 1200 BBs * $10.00 = $12,000.00

Now add that to the variance of being on a downswing........ and we come 360 degrees back to my question:

How large of a bankroll do you need to be chasing these small edges that is nothing but a guesstimate?

You talk about how they'll eat you alive if you're not properly rolled, but can you tell me what a proper roll is?

It's different for everybody. And the universal answer is it depends...

There are questions that need to be answered. Such as is the player playing for a living as his sole income? Is he able to replenish his bankroll? Some players are def more aggressive with their bankrolls than others. How are the games he's playing in and how often does said player play... The list goes on.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 06:13 PM   #11649
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd say for the average serious rec player who has other games he can drop down to if disciplined can start taking shots at 5/10 around $20-$25k bankroll.

For the pro who is playing for a living he probably needs anywhere from 50-100k to play this game for a living day In and day out.

I'm a bankroll nit so I like the higher side of this number as I've been on a $30k downswing playing live 5/10. Not to mention the stronger players with proper bankrolls aren't buying in for 100bbs. Usually 300 or more.
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2015, 06:16 PM   #11650
Pots-For-Sale
old hand
 
Pots-For-Sale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tx
Posts: 1,827
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I stand corrected some 10/25 added to those losses at that time. But very few hours...
Pots-For-Sale is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:34 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive