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Old 10-19-2015, 07:23 PM   #11476
Drrr.Gonzo
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Amit Mahija [with 2.6M in live tournament winnings & 3M in online tournament winnings] has this to say about the pro poker lifestyle & he isn't the only one whose comments are similar:

There are some negative aspects to life as a poker pro. It's a very isolating experience. There are people who you are good friends with that you need to beat day in & day out. It seems that people are never fully happy for you either.. Your upswing is their downswing & even if they aren't running that bad, they are depressing because they are not doing quite as well as you. Nobody is ever at the same place, mentally."

I can relate to this 100% at the 1/2 NL level! I shall give one quick example, in the event anyone cares:

So, I developed a poker bond with a much younger guy who has been studying his ass off trying to improve. He is a good player, but he has an ego problem. When he's running bad [or gaining no traction] on a given day, he will ignore the fact that I have entered the poker room, which is small & fail to initiate a hello, or call me out.

See, he is one of those who is hard to easily spot in the room & sometimes I'll miss him but when I do spot him I'll stop by & say hello.

Anyway, the other night I arrive at the room late in the evening & get seated at a table not far from his. I have yet to realize he is there but I can see that his friend is at the table & wave when I see him looking my way but I guess he didn't see me.

Shortly thereafter, the two get up from the table & walk away from their table to chat & are standing not 5 feet from me. I say hello, but they are talking & not looking my way but there is no way in hell they didn't notice me. Plus, I am sitting on ~$350, so I'm not stuck so they shouldn't think that by coming over they'd be embarrassing me, which many players feel when someone comes by when they are stuck.

On to 2 days later when I see him. I again arrive after he does & get seated at a table down from his. I recognize him, & despite the previous occurrence, I say hello as I'm walking by & I get a nod in response.

Fast forward 2 hrs later when I'm going to have dinner with another friend. After the dealer change & I get up, I stop by my the guy's table I'm having dinner with to let him know where I'll be & walk out of the poker room. I have to walk by the table of the guy I'm talking about & he calls me out by name. LOUD. He must really want to talk to me.

Now he must really want to talk to me, because I can't remember him doing that. I'm not even sure it was my name I heard, because it's so loud in there, but it sounded like his voice. So I turn around.

He's waving me over. So, I walk over & he asks if I am "putting anything together over there" ....... I tell him no, that I'm just floating along. He nods his head up & down like one of those head bobbing toys.

He has nothing else to say. That's it. Just bobbing his head, acknowledging what I've told him, waiting for me to recognize the fact that he's sitting on ~$600.00. He usually buys in for $200.

Finally, I realize he went thru all that trouble to call me over for no other reason but to show off his stack. He has nothing else to say. I thought he had some news or something, so, I told him I was going to dinner & keep on hammerin' 'em & left.

His ego is so bad, that when he pulled off a bluff on the river, OOP, by betting ~$140 otr into 2 players & they folded, that he tossed his hand face up into the middle of the table showing he had nothing but king high.

Now I know another guy, ~47 yrs old, that is the exact opposite. He'll come over to my table to tell me that he is at an action table & I should also get over there as quick as possible. He'll then tell me "I'm already stuck $400 but I know I'll get it back" and "You should get over there asap before the fish go broke."

However, he's a rare bird.

He'll even stop by on his way out to say: "Man they ate me alive tonight! I've gotta' give up for today."
+1 thank for sharing this attitude is kind of why I have trouble making friends in the poker world a lot of players i met arent humble and they're a piece of ish... those players have a limited ceiling for they feel they are already good enough so its hard for them to improve their game, you tell them their reasoning doesnt make sense but they rebuttle with idiosycrasies and bro science(like the auto shuffler is rigged), whats sad about these types of players is you know how its going to end for them and you arent suprised by the situations they often find themselves in, IE broke.... I was hoping to just pull one of my good friends into poker so we can grow and learn together but they're too smart to get involved in poker lol
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Old 10-19-2015, 07:28 PM   #11477
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Feds currently taking the (false) position that my FT $ was affiliate income I am not entitled to (it was actually coaching income, mainly). My appeal of that determination is pending, but I expect to lose, as they told me I had to prove it wasn't affiliate income, and lol, proving a negative.
Ugh.

Showing proof that you had students and agreements to pay (presumably via email or forums) must not be enough then. What a disaster. Good luck.
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Old 10-19-2015, 07:29 PM   #11478
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That one guy describes so many poker players.
I've talked about the "Peacock Walk" before, where both young, middle aged, & older players take a tour of the room with their 2 racks of winning to stop off & see their friends, but don't do the same thing when they have less than their winnings to cash out.

Well, this guy did the same thing, only from his seat at the table!

Now, if he had ever gone thru that much trouble to call me over to give me some news about something in the past, it would be different. However, this was an isolated event with this guy.

It describes life in the poker world, for the most part, perfectly.
dont respond to a grown man that uses the term CrayCray wtf happened to peoples brain cells cray cray oh my F
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Old 10-19-2015, 07:37 PM   #11479
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Less than you might think, actually. We have retirement money--that is off limits, period. We just don't touch it. But when I was lawyering, I had huge expenses--we didn't quit until we were out from under most of those.

The other thing was Black Friday for online poker. The Monday before Black Friday, we had over $100K in cash on hand. Then we wrote a big check to the IRS for taxes on my income (which was all on Full Tilt), a big check for our house here in Vegas, and then the Feds seized the rest on Full Tilt. On April 13, I was here with a $100K cushion. On April 14, I was here with nothing more than the $700 I had in my pocket. That $700 became my poker roll and my life roll, and it is the foundation we have lived on for 4 years plus, now.
PLease please tell me you have a thread on how you ran $700 up playing live,did you borrow did your wife have a savings did you grind online,how is this possible assuming your being literal, could you get your return back since the funds technically were not claimed yet,oh and how long have you been playing FT
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Old 10-19-2015, 07:56 PM   #11480
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+1!!!! Haha I'd subbed to that
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Old 10-19-2015, 08:00 PM   #11481
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I've heard quarter life crisis is actual a thing for the millenials nowadays.
+1 lol hey bro im 26 and young money makes me feel like if i dont have at least a million to my name by now i aint ish,,, but seriously I feel super behind , especially in poker,even though black friday hit and my only options were live games i couldnt afford especially as a noob, i feel my progression in poker isnt where it should be,but I feel pressure equivalent to a 36 year old and I dont know why, i do but i dont
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Old 10-19-2015, 08:03 PM   #11482
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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PLease please tell me you have a thread on how you ran $700 up playing live,did you borrow did your wife have a savings did you grind online,how is this possible assuming your being literal, could you get your return back since the funds technically were not claimed yet,oh and how long have you been playing FT
The $700 in my pocket is a literally accurate statement, yes. We closed on our house in July and we moved into it empty of anything--no furniture, no dishes, nothing, because all our stuff was back in Virginia and we could not afford to go back there. It was a few months before I was able to win enough at the tables for us to go back to Virginia and haul our stuff here.

I didn't make a thread about it, because all I did was play. Eventually, I think it was after about two years, my wife found a job. But for the first two years, all we lived on came from the winnings I was able to make (and that was also during some of the worst run bad ). So, yeah, it has been a struggle.

But that was my whole point of mentioning what a struggle it was. We slept on the floor for a month before we had a spare $200 to go buy a cheap ass bed. We ate Ramen and comped pastrami sandwiches. And we both agree that we'd do the last 4 years all over again rather than be miserable with 8 times as much money, like we were back in Virginia.

Which is why I would never presume to tell another person "don't go pro." There are tons of ways to be happy, and ime, they dont include "making as much money as possible." For us, for example, there has been enormous satisfaction in surviving absurd levels of adversity and managing to avoid touching that retirement nest egg.

Nobody knows better than Johnny buzz what will give him satisfaction in life. So if he thinks happiness is taking a huge pay cut to grind, then that's what he should do. But, like everything else, I think he should be smart about it.

One thing I should mention that I haven't is that my wife and I first started talking about moving here in 2005, I quit practicing law in 2008 and we didn't move here until 2011. Some of the reasons for the delay were a daughter in college, looking after my dad in Virginia, we recognized the real estate bubble here in Vegas and waited for it to burst, and stuff like that. So we did exercise the patience I am encouraging buzz to exercise.
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Old 10-19-2015, 08:07 PM   #11483
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Less than you might think, actually. We have retirement money--that is off limits, period. We just don't touch it. But when I was lawyering, I had huge expenses--we didn't quit until we were out from under most of those.

The other thing was Black Friday for online poker. The Monday before Black Friday, we had over $100K in cash on hand. Then we wrote a big check to the IRS for taxes on my income (which was all on Full Tilt), a big check for our house here in Vegas, and then the Feds seized the rest on Full Tilt. On April 13, I was here with a $100K cushion. On April 14, I was here with nothing more than the $700 I had in my pocket. That $700 became my poker roll and my life roll, and it is the foundation we have lived on for 4 years plus, now.
If I learned anything from this post it is to never pay your taxes early. Black Friday was April 15th, 2011. The tax deadline that year was Monday April 18th. Eeeeeek
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Old 10-19-2015, 08:42 PM   #11484
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If I learned anything from this post it is to never pay your taxes early. Black Friday was April 15th, 2011. The tax deadline that year was Monday April 18th. Eeeeeek

So, don't pay it and face back taxes or prosecution?


Also, mpethy, were you not in the service long enough to receive a pension?
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Old 10-19-2015, 08:50 PM   #11485
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So, don't pay it and face back taxes or prosecution?


Also, mpethy, were you not in the service long enough to receive a pension?
Nah, I only did one tour as an enlisted guy back in the day.
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Old 10-20-2015, 12:00 AM   #11486
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
If I learned anything from this post it is to never pay your taxes early. Black Friday was April 15th, 2011. The tax deadline that year was Monday April 18th. Eeeeeek

The fact that the money was seized (confiscated w/e you want to call it) had no relevance to the fact that it was still due by 4/15. Paying it "later" or not paying it at all would have simply brought forth interest and penalties in addition to the tax.

Remember the tax was generated based on income earned in calendar 2010. Just so happened that the event occurred so close to Tax Day.
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Old 10-20-2015, 01:56 AM   #11487
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Very cool attitude and story mpethy
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Old 10-20-2015, 03:09 AM   #11488
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Hi guys!

I play $2/$3 live at a local casino where they rake 10% capped at $10 with a $5 "time charge" once every hour. I am generally top 2 or 3 player at a 9 handed table, playing a very straight forward ABC style with minimal bluffs and max aggression. I'm winning $50 p/h over a lol sample of 200 hours. I am considering playing full time 5 days a week 10 hours per day. Given the skill level plus rake what is a realistic win rate for said game? FYI I have played a lot more in this casino and other venues that's just my logged hours over the past 2 months. Thanks in advance!
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Old 10-20-2015, 03:21 AM   #11489
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What are you doing with all of the 6 figures you're getting paid through the year?? if you can't build financial independence with a 6 figure job, no spouse, no kids, you have some major life leaks. Playing poker will not change that, it might only exasperate the situation.
I highly doubt he is actually making six figures. The average starting salary in finance is $40-50K and a Financial Analyst II only makes on average $65K. Unless he is an investment banker living in New York, which is highly unlikely, or somehow more successful than 95% of the population of mid-twenties people in finance, his claim of having a six figure job with great benefits sounds a lot like those my winrate is 25 BB/hr brags.
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Old 10-20-2015, 03:55 AM   #11490
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Hi guys!

I play $2/$3 live at a local casino where they rake 10% capped at $10 with a $5 "time charge" once every hour. I am generally top 2 or 3 player at a 9 handed table, playing a very straight forward ABC style with minimal bluffs and max aggression. I'm winning $50 p/h over a lol sample of 200 hours. I am considering playing full time 5 days a week 10 hours per day. Given the skill level plus rake what is a realistic win rate for said game? FYI I have played a lot more in this casino and other venues that's just my logged hours over the past 2 months. Thanks in advance!
That is a tough rake to beat. You did not mention anything about the buy-in structure, but I am going to assume it is 100bb. I would guess that for a top 2 or 3 player your winrate would be something like 10$ an hour. A player who is one of the best in the player pool (aka almost always best player at any table) could probably make something like 20 or 25, but that is for a very good player (who at that point should be playing 2/5 or higher)

Last edited by D.M.O.U.; 10-20-2015 at 04:00 AM.
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Old 10-20-2015, 04:41 AM   #11491
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Hi guys!

I play $2/$3 live at a local casino where they rake 10% capped at $10 with a $5 "time charge" once every hour. I am generally top 2 or 3 player at a 9 handed table, playing a very straight forward ABC style with minimal bluffs and max aggression. I'm winning $50 p/h over a lol sample of 200 hours. I am considering playing full time 5 days a week 10 hours per day. Given the skill level plus rake what is a realistic win rate for said game? FYI I have played a lot more in this casino and other venues that's just my logged hours over the past 2 months. Thanks in advance!
Does anyone here think Phil Galfond or Ivey could make a nice living in this game with the rake vs. the top 8 players on 2+2 at the table with them all the time?

I highly doubt it. But I don't know how to crunch the numbers.

I'm a conservative tipper & due to variance, I've thrown ~15% of winnings to the dealers.

But then I don't play deep stack poker, as I get up once my stack gets to $800 & several players at the table can hurt me in one hand.
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Old 10-20-2015, 04:49 AM   #11492
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Does anyone here think Phil Galfond or Ivey could make a nice living in this game with the rake vs. the top 8 players on 2+2 at the table with them all the time?

I highly doubt it. But I don't know how to crunch the numbers.

I'm a conservative tipper & due to variance, I've thrown ~15% of winnings to the dealers.

But then I don't play deep stack poker, as I get up once my stack gets to $800 & several players at the table can hurt me in one hand.
There's a lot of variables you'd have to define here to give anyone a reasonable chance of answering this. I'll assume by Phil Galfond or Ivey you mean a player who will play with world class skill in the game, and by the top 8 players on 2+2 you mean players who will be thinly edged out by the world class player. Let's assume a living is $20/hour. They'd have no chance of getting there. Profits in live poker come from massive mistakes due to the lack of volume. Even though the player is world class, if his edges are thin it would be difficult for him to make much at all with such low volume at such low stakes. With that rake though a world class player may not even be a winner under those conditions.
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Old 10-20-2015, 04:53 AM   #11493
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Just to clarify competition is very soft & as said I definitely have an edge on 75% of any given table. Also there is no tipping (Australia). $100-$300 Cap can play deep depending on night/dynamic but average stack is usually around the 90-150 BB.
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Old 10-20-2015, 05:01 AM   #11494
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Does anyone here think Phil Galfond or Ivey could make a nice living in this game with the rake vs. the top 8 players on 2+2 at the table with them all the time?
The top 8 players on 2p2 all make 10-25 BB/hour, Galfond and Ivey would need to be the fish.
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Old 10-20-2015, 05:32 AM   #11495
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The fact that the money was seized (confiscated w/e you want to call it) had no relevance to the fact that it was still due by 4/15. Paying it "later" or not paying it at all would have simply brought forth interest and penalties in addition to the tax.
Yes of course, but it seems he could have really used that money after Black Friday. I would much rather have paid penalties and interest and dealt with the IRS when I got back on my feet rather than trying to grind poker on a $700 life roll.
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Old 10-20-2015, 05:37 AM   #11496
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Just to clarify competition is very soft & as said I definitely have an edge on 75% of any given table. Also there is no tipping (Australia). $100-$300 Cap can play deep depending on night/dynamic but average stack is usually around the 90-150 BB.
Ok. However, if it takes playing 50 hrs a week to make the wage you want, how healthly will you be in 2 years?

How are you going to eat right & get the exercise? Do you live close by?

I know a grinder ~28 yrs old, who, when he was playing in the house games 10 years ago, weighed at least 50lbs less than he does today.

I know another grinder, who has never had a job, quit college, played poker in house games since he was 14 & now, 10 years later, in the local casinos, he wears nothing but oversized sweatshirts of some kind to hide his excess weight.

I'd rather get a p/t job that requires physical activity & play poker p/t. At least that way, I'd get some exercise on a daily basis.

But then, for me, after 100 weeks of playing poker * 50 hrs pr week, I'd be sick of poker. And that's with 2 weeks vacation a year.

Plus, where's the time to continually work on your game away from the table?

Plus, how large a pool of players do you have? I ran really good the 1st 10 weeks [avg 25 hrs per week] I started playing in the local casino. Really freakin' good. And not because I was getting hit over the head with the deck. Then they figured me out.

You will become their target. They will work together as a team, discussing how you play and play cautiously until they've got you pegged. The regulars will anyways.
1 or 2 will try & establish a rapport. Invite you to dinner & then steer the conversation towards poker strat after talking sports, etc.
Then they'll share the info with their real friends.

They aren't going to roll over & hand their money over to you 50 hours a week. If nothing else, they just won't sit at your table.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 10-20-2015 at 05:49 AM.
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Old 10-20-2015, 06:16 AM   #11497
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You will become their target. They will work together as a team, discussing how you play and play cautiously until they've got you pegged. The regulars will anyways.
1 or 2 will try & establish a rapport. Invite you to dinner & then steer the conversation towards poker strat after talking sports, etc.
Then they'll share the info with their real friends.

They aren't going to roll over & hand their money over to you 50 hours a week. If nothing else, they just won't sit at your table.
Yeah, no one beats a live low stakes game for long before the regulars organize a committee to put a stop to it.
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Old 10-20-2015, 06:24 AM   #11498
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Yeah, no one beats a live low stakes game for long before the regulars organize a committee to put a stop to it.
THIS! LOL... Appreciate the advice but please don't digress on your conspiracy theory's.
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Old 10-20-2015, 06:24 AM   #11499
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Originally Posted by zuneit
You will become their target. They will work together as a team, discussing how you play and play cautiously until they've got you pegged. The regulars will anyways.
1 or 2 will try & establish a rapport. Invite you to dinner & then steer the conversation towards poker strat after talking sports, etc.
Then they'll share the info with their real friends.

They aren't going to roll over & hand their money over to you 50 hours a week. If nothing else, they just won't sit at your table.
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Yeah, no one beats a live low stakes game for long before the regulars organize a committee to put a stop to it.
I know you were being facetious, but my poker room has a small pool of Regs & some real degens that stick together. Avg # of tables during the weekday b4 5pm is five. That may increase to 8 tables by 9pm.

So, once you've become a Reg & they have history on you, you've got to be at a table with a number of Recs/Fish/Loose players who don't know what they're doing. Then you've usually got 3 Regs trying to feed off of them along with you & you've got to angle around them.

It's a tough world in a small fish bowl............especially when your game is average.
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Old 10-20-2015, 07:29 AM   #11500
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Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101 View Post
Hi guys!

I play $2/$3 live at a local casino where they rake 10% capped at $10 with a $5 "time charge" once every hour. I am generally top 2 or 3 player at a 9 handed table, playing a very straight forward ABC style with minimal bluffs and max aggression. I'm winning $50 p/h over a lol sample of 200 hours. I am considering playing full time 5 days a week 10 hours per day. Given the skill level plus rake what is a realistic win rate for said game? FYI I have played a lot more in this casino and other venues that's just my logged hours over the past 2 months. Thanks in advance!
I don't think the Star $2/$3 game is beatable for more then about $15 per hour. Yes no one knows how to play but the rake is just to large and way to many short stacks to get a larger winrate then this.
I would put in way more hours before you decide to go pro in this game. Yes its awesome to crush for 200 hours and I did the same thing but then came a 300 hour stretch where I flopped a set twice out of 82 pocket pairs and the hourly rate took a huge hit.

The game is 10 handed and the pots are so multiway that its hard to do anything except wait for premium hands, and trust me at 50 hours a week the amount of card dead times will really mess with your mind.
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