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Old 04-13-2015, 03:05 PM   #9226
Richard Parker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There is a poker journal thread in these forums.
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Old 04-14-2015, 11:06 AM   #9227
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So I've been tracking results from January 1, 2014. I have played 1/2 (100-300 cap) for about 2.5 years until I moved up to 2/5 (200-500 cap) in March 2015 playing at Maryland Live.

My hourly rate was around $9.8/hr at 1/2 tracking results from Jan 1, 2014 - Mar 1, 2015. Since moving up to 2/5 I have been making 6x what I normally do. I feel like I've been running super hot, but I also notice there is much more money to be made at 2/5.

Can 2/5 really be this much better of a game compared to 1/2 where I'm making 62-73 an hour and only having a losing session 1 out of every 6 sessions or so? Or am I just running like God and should be prepared for a massive downswing to push me back down? I've never experienced an upswing for this long.

Take a look at my stats and let me know your thoughts:



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Old 04-14-2015, 03:43 PM   #9228
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Sample size is still really small,so there's not a perfect answer. It's likely a combination of you running really hot and playing better/less splashing around in the bigger game. Winning 85% of your sessions isnt typically sustainable so expect that to go down in thethe long run.

Tldr don't be results oriented and focus on playing well/improving. Good luck

Also wanted to add that its really good that you're aware you are running good,and that winning a lot right off the bat didn't get to your head.
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Old 04-14-2015, 03:53 PM   #9229
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keep it up thats awesome. Would be pretty outrageous if your anything but a winner in this game. As to how much, gotta still be up in the air. good luck
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Old 04-14-2015, 04:45 PM   #9230
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Thanks guys. Can anyone share with me their hourly winrate at a similar 500 cap 2/5 game? I know all rooms are different but I'd like to see what the norm and what the peak high end of expectation is out there.
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Old 04-14-2015, 07:28 PM   #9231
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I've played 50 sessions of 1/2 500max with almost 270 hours and im at +$6002

This is a bit over $22/hour so it seems above expected
But I have only won 56% of my sessions too so its odd

What do you guys think is a high winning hrly at 1/2?

Heres my graph:

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Old 04-14-2015, 08:15 PM   #9232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khangura175 View Post
I've played 50 sessions of 1/2 500max with almost 270 hours and im at +$6002

This is a bit over $22/hour so it seems above expected
But I have only won 56% of my sessions too so its odd

What do you guys think is a high winning hrly at 1/2?

Heres my graph:


With this large bi structure I think its probably reasonable to suggest a top player can sustain 40/hr if and only if players are buying in full frequently and regularly
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Old 04-14-2015, 08:43 PM   #9233
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wow..

so basically if ur really good, u can make a living at the lowest limit of live poker lol
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Old 04-14-2015, 08:59 PM   #9234
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wow..

so basically if ur really good, u can make a living at the lowest limit of live poker lol
Your 1/2 has an abnormally large cap.

If the rake is reasonable, players are bad, you are good, and the stack sizes large enough often enough I don't see why you couldn't.

At that point, depending on the avg opening size your almost playing 2/5 with smaller blinds if that makes any sense.
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Old 04-14-2015, 09:39 PM   #9235
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Your 1/2 has an abnormally large cap.

If the rake is reasonable, players are bad, you are good, and the stack sizes large enough often enough I don't see why you couldn't.

At that point, depending on the avg opening size your almost playing 2/5 with smaller blinds if that makes any sense.
I play in Khangura's games. The rake is reasonable ($5 + $2 is the highest in the city), the players are bad and stack sizes are somewhat higher on average than a $200 cap 1/2 game. Players buying in for $500 is the exception, the average buyin I'd say would be $250 - $300. There will typically be one table in the room that has an average stack of ~$500 at any given time, however.

Khangura, $22 is a very healthy winrate. I believe $30/hr to be a functional maximum in our games for a very good player, $35/hr for an elite player who should be playing higher since he's crushing it. Anything between $20-$30/hr over 1000 hours is very solid.
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:38 AM   #9236
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I know this is the NLHE forum, but how does live PLO compare to live NLHE in terms of BRM? Would 15 buyins be enough to try 1/2 PLO? I am a winner at 25PLO and 50PLO online but I have never played live PLO. Are the live games as swingy as online where stack offs are regularly 60/40's or are they going to be stacking off with a 7 hi flush? I've heard some of these games are ridiculously soft... I guess I'll have to wait and see.
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Old 04-16-2015, 02:56 PM   #9237
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For PLO, you'll typically want about double the corresponding NLH bankroll to play if you aren't adding to your roll. For 1/2 PLO, you'd be looking at around $8k to play it comfortably and even that is probably not enough. That said, there's nothing saying you can't take a shot with 15 buyins.

Expect a lot of multiway pots and a **** ton of variance. While guys will be stacking off with non-nut draws, the sheer amount of cards you need to dodge on any given hand will mean big swings. It should be quite profitable given break-even or better luck.
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Old 04-16-2015, 03:56 PM   #9238
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Originally Posted by GrinningBuddha View Post
I play in Khangura's games. The rake is reasonable ($5 + $2 is the highest in the city), the players are bad and stack sizes are somewhat higher on average than a $200 cap 1/2 game. Players buying in for $500 is the exception, the average buyin I'd say would be $250 - $300. There will typically be one table in the room that has an average stack of ~$500 at any given time, however.

Khangura, $22 is a very healthy winrate. I believe $30/hr to be a functional maximum in our games for a very good player, $35/hr for an elite player who should be playing higher since he's crushing it. Anything between $20-$30/hr over 1000 hours is very solid.
1000 hours seems to be the bare minimum for wr. At 300 hours I had a 50%increase in my wr in 1 session.

Oh variance.
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:01 PM   #9239
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Live low stakes PLO is nuts. Especially if you're playing with primarily NLHE players that love to gambool.

The $1/2 PLO I've played in plays more like $2/5 NLHE depthwise, with bigger swings. So I'd think you really need to go 2x or 4x your $1/2 NLHE BR requirement. But that's if you're playing full time at that stake.

Many times the game is so juicy you should sit and take a shot anyway. Players are really, really bad at PLO. They draw to non-nut hands, shovel money in with undersets and small straights getting SMASHED by a reasonable hand. Lots of multi-way preflop hands for $10-50/each with stack sizes in the $200-300 range. If you can fold marginal hands OOP and get a little lucky to hold up when you put the money in, you can make a lot in those games.
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:26 PM   #9240
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1/2 PLO is typically 1/2 5 bring in PLO... it is a sneaky big game, especially if:
- straddles are allowed, BTN straddle especially
- how are the blinds added for a "pot" open.
- what is the buy in cap
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:31 PM   #9241
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
1/2 PLO is typically 1/2 5 bring in PLO... it is a sneaky big game, especially if:
- straddles are allowed, BTN straddle especially
- how are the blinds added for a "pot" open.
- what is the buy in cap
Yea, the one I play in you *can* limp for $2. But you can always make it $10 preflop, even from first position or as the straddle. Max buy in $500 (although not many do that at the start of the game).

I love seeing "pot face". When someone says "POT", then gets told that it's $275 instead of the $100ish they expected. It's fun watching them gulp and turn green a bit.
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Old 04-17-2015, 11:31 AM   #9242
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Originally Posted by Havax View Post
So I've been tracking results from January 1, 2014. I have played 1/2 (100-300 cap) for about 2.5 years until I moved up to 2/5 (200-500 cap) in March 2015 playing at Maryland Live.

My hourly rate was around $9.8/hr at 1/2 tracking results from Jan 1, 2014 - Mar 1, 2015. Since moving up to 2/5 I have been making 6x what I normally do. I feel like I've been running super hot, but I also notice there is much more money to be made at 2/5.

Can 2/5 really be this much better of a game compared to 1/2 where I'm making 62-73 an hour and only having a losing session 1 out of every 6 sessions or so? Or am I just running like God and should be prepared for a massive downswing to push me back down? I've never experienced an upswing for this long.

Take a look at my stats and let me know your thoughts:
You're running like god. Based on your 1/2 winrate, you're more likely looking at something like $20-$30 an hour. I play in the same game as you and I do think $60-$70/hour is attainable, playing only at the prime times and playing very deep. However, there probably aren't 5 players in the room that have sustained that winrate over a large sample.

Fwiw, my stats at MDL 2/5:



Was on a massive heater for a while, now on a dumb breakeven stretch so idk. Probably still on the hot side overall.

Last edited by t_roy; 04-17-2015 at 11:46 AM.
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Old 04-17-2015, 08:51 PM   #9243
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how is $70/hr attainable playing full time with a 500 max buy-in?
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Old 04-17-2015, 09:01 PM   #9244
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how is $70/hr attainable playing full time with a 500 max buy-in?
How good are you?
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Old 04-17-2015, 09:08 PM   #9245
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how is $70/hr attainable playing full time with a 500 max buy-in?
Well first of all, I said playing only at prime times. That's not a full time schedule. Secondly, the games at mdl often play very deep over the weekend.
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Old 04-17-2015, 11:18 PM   #9246
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how is $70/hr attainable playing full time with a 500 max buy-in?
Not sure how to answer your question except to say that it is most certainly possible if you are very skilled and the games are very soft. Also, I think too much emphasis is put on the buyin cap. The best 2/5 games i've ever played have been $500 cap. If players are giving away money stack depths will become quite deep regardless.
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Old 04-17-2015, 11:27 PM   #9247
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Not sure how to answer your question except to say that it is most certainly possible if you are very skilled and the games are very soft. Also, I think too much emphasis is put on the buyin cap. The best 2/5 games i've ever played have been $500 cap. If players are giving away money stack depths will become quite deep regardless.
+1

To add:

Alot of times when games have a 100bb cap you can get deep with a guy who has absolutely no idea what to do and plays 400bb the same as 100bb
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Old 04-18-2015, 05:50 PM   #9248
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The point of deep buy ins vs winrates is not how deep stacks can get - it is the fact the hero can't buy in to cover the fish... if you are a rule follower that is.
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Old 04-18-2015, 06:07 PM   #9249
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Typical stack depth of the table has a big effect even if you cant buy in to cover. At a huge room like mdl, you can easily find very deep games to sit in. Gotta build a stack first to take advantage but it still adds to the overall potential winrate.
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Old 04-18-2015, 06:20 PM   #9250
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The point of deep buy ins vs winrates is not how deep stacks can get - it is the fact the hero can't buy in to cover the fish... if you are a rule follower that is.
I would still contend that more fish sit under the cap then above it.

I mean yeah, we've all seen the guy; he's drunk and has vomit on his shirt and spewing it up 500bb deep and sun running.

But for every one of those guys is 10 fish who are sitting there with 50-80bb.

As an anecdote, one of the prime tells of a fish before he even plays a hand is how much he buys in for and IME and I'm sure others will agree it is rarely 100bb or the cap
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