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Old 12-22-2015, 02:17 PM   #12226
mikko
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I know I posted this recently, but I'll do again quickly: my winrate over my past 821 hours is 1/3rd of what it was in the first 1,774 hours. Sure, I've broken out those rates at a particular spot which shows the greatest difference, but the overall point is:

1000 hours? Lol sample size, imo.

Gaddanotherzeroandthenmaybeyou'llstartgettingabett eridea,imoG
1000 hrs is approximately 30000 hands.

I was 8.2BB/100 winner over 94,000 hands online (micros). Last 7,200 hands I am running -17BB/100, and I have improved immensely.

It would take years to ever find a true winrate, for rec player like us. It is fun to track. But true winrate live is almost laughable. Live players will never understand it until they see 100k hands.

Pipedreamer, your sample is painfully small. You can deduce nothing from it other than, at this moment you are crushing.
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:34 PM   #12227
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko View Post
It would take years to ever find a true winrate, for rec player like us. It is fun to track. But true winrate live is almost laughable. Live players will never understand it until they see 100k hands.
Replace "years" with "likely several lifetimes" (especially when dealing with us rec players who only play 500 hours = ~15,000 hands / year) and I think you might be spot on.

A big winrate / lossrate probably gives a decent indication if we're a winning / losing player in our live game (although lol at idea our game will remain the same over time), but yeah, reading much more than that into winrates is probably lol.

Gcuebip!andhisstandarddeviationstufftoattempttomak eusfeelbetterG
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:41 PM   #12228
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Gcuebip!andhisstandarddeviationstufftoattempttomak eusfeelbetterG
NSFW

Spoiler:
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Old 12-22-2015, 03:26 PM   #12229
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
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Old 12-22-2015, 05:17 PM   #12230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zuneit
t_roy, Do you play in Vegas where it's harder to grind it out? I don't do 10bbs+ but I know 3 guys who claim they do. 1 says $26 & the other $29 over 1200 hrs this year. Think they're fibbin'?

Max buy-in @ 1/2 in this area's casinos is $300.00. MDL 1/2 & Horseshoe 1/3 both, as well as the ones in Philly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
I play at MDL. I don't know if the guys are lying. The 1/2 pool in this area is pretty big, so I'm sure there are a decent number of people over 10bbs. I would be skeptical of their claims if they are playing for profit and haven't moved up yet though. I know of multiple people that don't record bad sessions where they go on tilt.
And, since there are multiple people who don't record those type sessions, there has to be multiple people who edit their sessions, so that their loss is not as much as it really was.

I could probably start editing losing sessions right now, cutting the amount I lost in half, & in an hour have a $21 WR for the year.
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Old 12-22-2015, 05:40 PM   #12231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I don't do 10bbs+ but I know 3 guys who claim they do. 1 says $26 & the other $29 over 1200 hrs this year. Think they're fibbin'?
yes
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Old 12-22-2015, 05:52 PM   #12232
bodybuilder32
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If someone studies 2+2, and actually implements the advice they receive from the highly regarded posters, then that person can expect to make atleast $20 hr playing 1-2, and most likely closer to $25 over 1000 hours and beyond. I am living proof of this.
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Old 12-22-2015, 05:56 PM   #12233
ZippyThePinhead
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
Using the above formula,

I'm 95% confident my win rate at 1/2 300 cap is between $14.04 and $23.03



Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums
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Old 12-22-2015, 06:12 PM   #12234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
If someone studies 2+2, and actually implements the advice they receive from the highly regarded posters, then that person can expect to make atleast $20 hr playing 1-2, and most likely closer to $25 over 1000 hours and beyond. I am living proof of this.
You're welcome.
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Old 12-22-2015, 06:48 PM   #12235
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This guy

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-here-1283096/

Has made over 40k each of the last 3 years playing solely 1/2, he only plays about 25 hrs a week. 15bb/hr is not unreasonable, usually you won't hear about it because the ones good enough to win this rate(def not me) are already playing at higher stakes
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Old 12-22-2015, 07:39 PM   #12236
suited fours
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
Agree, except that's an estimated confidence interval on what your win rate was for that period. Likely a good predictor of your current win rate, but not necessarily so.
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Old 12-22-2015, 07:40 PM   #12237
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rtd353 View Post
This guy

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-here-1283096/

Has made over 40k each of the last 3 years playing solely 1/2, he only plays about 25 hrs a week. 15bb/hr is not unreasonable, usually you won't hear about it because the ones good enough to win this rate(def not me) are already playing at higher stakes
And they won't necessarily talk about it
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Old 12-22-2015, 07:49 PM   #12238
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No sense bragging to people performing under you.
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Old 12-22-2015, 08:06 PM   #12239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
No sense bragging to people performing under you.

But aren't those the ones most likely to be impressed
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Old 12-22-2015, 08:08 PM   #12240
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
If I were still a mod in this forum, this would absolutely be a rule in this thread. Great idea.

Sadly, I have no idea what my standard deviation is; don't track it.
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Old 12-22-2015, 08:11 PM   #12241
Sneaky Pete
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
But aren't those the ones most likely to be impressed

It's true, but if I want fans, I'll ask some kid to draw pretty charts and post them in my PG&C.
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Old 12-23-2015, 12:32 AM   #12242
ZuneIt
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rtd353 View Post
This guy

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-here-1283096/

Has made over 40k each of the last 3 years playing solely 1/2, he only plays about 25 hrs a week. 15bb/hr is not unreasonable, usually you won't hear about it because the ones good enough to win this rate(def not me) are already playing at higher stakes
He is playing at a casino that affords the opportunity to turn a 1/2 game into a much bigger game. You can buy-in for as much as 1/2 the biggest stack at the table.

Go to page 2. He sits down at a table where a guy has a 2k stack & he buys in for $800.00

That my friends, is not 1/2 NLHE that we find throughout the country.

He is not going to average 40k a year at a casino where the max buy-in is $300, the rake is $7 on $50 with the BBJ & the average stack seen at the table during the week is $225 or so.
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Old 12-23-2015, 06:11 AM   #12243
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
He is playing at a casino that affords the opportunity to turn a 1/2 game into a much bigger game. You can buy-in for as much as 1/2 the biggest stack at the table.

Go to page 2. He sits down at a table where a guy has a 2k stack & he buys in for $800.00

That my friends, is not 1/2 NLHE that we find throughout the country.

He is not going to average 40k a year at a casino where the max buy-in is $300, the rake is $7 on $50 with the BBJ & the average stack seen at the table during the week is $225 or so.
This is why I think some people find my advice in strat threads a bit odd. This is my home casino. When he talks about people straddling for everything they have on the table, it's no joke, happens quite frequently.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:04 PM   #12244
IntheNow
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
Great idea! I think this would really help everyone, and make this thread much better. Excellent suggestion.

One more thing I'd add is for everyone to explain the structure of the game where they have logged the majority of their hours at. For example, HappyLuckBox, you often post hands played at deep buy in 2-3-5 nl games that play closer to 5-10nl than regular 500 max buy in games. Were your numbers posted just total hours logged at all games with a $5 big blind?

Anyway, I think this would further help others get an even more realistic picture of accurate win rates.
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Old 12-23-2015, 02:50 PM   #12245
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Using Happy's formula, mine at 1/3 NL ($300 maximum BI) is:

PokerJournals Standard Deviation per hour: $170.98
Current Hours Played: 2594:55
Current Winrate: $23.71/hr

(2*(170.98/3))/sqrt(2594.9)
= (113.987/50.940)
= +/- 2.24 bbs = +/- $6.72

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 1/3 NL is between:

$16.99 and $30.43 (5.66 bb/hr and 10.14 bb/hr)

Gandyet,forsomereason,I'mnotreallyconfidentinthata tall,especiallyconsideringI'verunat2.32bb/hrover550hoursthisyearG
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Old 12-23-2015, 03:52 PM   #12246
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What is the minimum # of hours you guys think is enough for the confidence interval to start being statistically relevant? I feel like I definitely don't have enough hours logged yet (probably why my range is so wide) but still interesting to calculate.

Mine for 1/2 $300 Max BI:
Win Rate Std Dev according to Poker Charts: $118.70/hr
Total Hours Played: 383.25 hrs
Current Win Rate: $31.21/hr

(2*(118.70/2))/sqrt(383.25)
=(118.7/18.577)
= +/- 6.06 bbs = +/- $12.13

95% Confidence Interval for 1/2 NL winrate is between:
$19.08 and $43.33 (9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr)
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Old 12-23-2015, 04:18 PM   #12247
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A CI is by definition "statistically relevant." A CI will become narrower as sample size increases, all else equal. But it's based on frequentist theory.
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Old 12-23-2015, 04:20 PM   #12248
bip!
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
If I were still a mod in this forum, this would absolutely be a rule in this thread. Great idea.



Sadly, I have no idea what my standard deviation is; don't track it.

You don't have to track stdev. As long as you have session logs with hours played and result - you're in!
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Old 12-23-2015, 04:29 PM   #12249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
You don't have to track stdev. As long as you have session logs with hours played and result - you're in!
Yeah, I know I could calculate it from my existing spreadsheet. Not quite sure I have the spreadsheet skills. Guess I'll go take a look.
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Old 12-23-2015, 04:32 PM   #12250
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
Great idea! I think this would really help everyone, and make this thread much better. Excellent suggestion.

One more thing I'd add is for everyone to explain the structure of the game where they have logged the majority of their hours at. For example, HappyLuckBox, you often post hands played at deep buy in 2-3-5 nl games that play closer to 5-10nl than regular 500 max buy in games. Were your numbers posted just total hours logged at all games with a $5 big blind?

Anyway, I think this would further help others get an even more realistic picture of accurate win rates.

For my posted CI, i only filtered for games at 2-3-5 (500cap)

Ive since played a larger variant they spread around here called 2-3-5 deepstack (2000cap) which usually has a straddle running too. I log these sessions in my poker journal seperately, and have a decent chunk of hrs logged for deepstack. I also play some 5-10-10 and 10-25 occasionally, in total over 3000 hours of poker logged.


as long as you filter games correctly in poker journal- you can obtain your CI for a specific blind level.
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