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Old 12-03-2015, 08:23 PM   #11976
suited fours
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I appreciate the input and insight squid.

When we use the term downswing, I think the implication is losing stretch due to variance. It's helpful to me when a crusher says their downswing wasn't all variance.

When I dropped 6k in 40 hours at 2-5 ($500 buy in) a few years ago, I thought it was mostly variance at that time. I had a sufficient track record to establish that I was a winning 2-5 player and the creative ways people were cracking my big pairs was remarkable.

With hindsight, I realize that I didn't understand what my edge was at the time (lol weak tight ABC against a very soft pool) and my mental game went to total crap in a heartbeat.

Instead of downswing, I should call that stretch an education.
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Old 12-03-2015, 08:38 PM   #11977
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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post

With hindsight, I realize that I didn't understand what my edge was at the time (lol weak tight ABC against a very soft pool) and my mental game went to total crap in a heartbeat.

Instead of downswing, I should call that stretch an education.

Very well said. Best post I've read in awhile. Exact same epiphany came to me and helped me on so many levels. Just wish I was self aware enough to learn the lessons sooner.

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Old 12-03-2015, 10:38 PM   #11978
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Variance doesn't stop at the cards. There is always variance in your decision making and your mental state.
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Old 12-03-2015, 11:12 PM   #11979
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Usual downswings at 500 max 2/5 was under 4K, swings at deeper games are much much higher, probably closer to 7/8k
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Old 12-03-2015, 11:20 PM   #11980
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Variance doesn't stop at the cards. There is always variance in your decision making and your mental state.
And that of your fellow players!

I have experienced periods of strange variance on where stone cold nits seem to show up with winning garbage and the sort
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Old 12-03-2015, 11:52 PM   #11981
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Semi regularly I see good 2/5 players drop 2.5-3k in one session. I mean That's only 2.5-3BI's! Maybe Vegas games are just very different? How often are you getting all in pf or OTF with 200bb? Do you get whales blind shoving 100+BB?
Value of blinds is different in each game, and sometime even just one player can change that.

If a whale sits down in my game, I have no problem going from folding to 10bb with TPTK to calling 100bb with ace-high.
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Old 12-04-2015, 04:22 PM   #11982
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@44dd

the beautiful thing about poker is the fact that people are able to lie to themselves and actually believe it. "God I run sooooo bad...no one runs worse than me...etc". I am extremly lucky. EVERY one of my poker buddies is smarter than I am. SPC is massively smarter. I am constantly discussing hands and mistakes that I make. 2 nights ago I made a 360$ mistake. I am still pissed at myself...but the good news is I will not make that same mistake for a very very long time

variance happens and cant be controlled. Bad play can.

I have said this before and will give it up again B/c I think it it that important. In my current locale I have never ever seen sooo much entitlement tilt. It is nuts. I realized that it was starting to creep in on me. Boom got up took a walk - problem solved.

I dont really talk about it but I have had too many concussions from my athletic career and I have quite a few issues with the effects of them and they have been increasing over the years. I now take a mandatory orbit off every 1.5-2 hours depending on how I am feeling. Even if I did not have these issues now that I have been doing it for quite some time I would do it and highly advise it. It accomplishes sooooo much

clears my head
eliminates entitlement tilt
gets body in motion
enables me to refocus
prevents autopilot
the list of benefits is long
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:00 PM   #11983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
In my current locale I have never ever seen sooo much entitlement tilt.
You're livin' in poker heaven! I'm so jealous
Is this down south where the Hard Rock Cafe is?

Where I play, we have a helluva' lotta' "I ain't gonna' bother with goin' to the cashier's cage with this chump change [<$100] ALL-IN!" tilt.

Last night, actually early this morning, guy straddles [UTG] all-in for his last $105.00. Needed to beat the rush hour traffic & the $105 was chump change compared to what he had already lost.
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:57 PM   #11984
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So how are you jealous of squid when guys are throwing away $105 and it's chump change?
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Old 12-05-2015, 06:26 AM   #11985
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
@44dd

the beautiful thing about poker is the fact that people are able to lie to themselves and actually believe it. "God I run sooooo bad...no one runs worse than me...etc". I am extremly lucky. EVERY one of my poker buddies is smarter than I am. SPC is massively smarter. I am constantly discussing hands and mistakes that I make. 2 nights ago I made a 360$ mistake. I am still pissed at myself...but the good news is I will not make that same mistake for a very very long time

variance happens and cant be controlled. Bad play can.

I have said this before and will give it up again B/c I think it it that important. In my current locale I have never ever seen sooo much entitlement tilt. It is nuts. I realized that it was starting to creep in on me. Boom got up took a walk - problem solved.

I dont really talk about it but I have had too many concussions from my athletic career and I have quite a few issues with the effects of them and they have been increasing over the years. I now take a mandatory orbit off every 1.5-2 hours depending on how I am feeling. Even if I did not have these issues now that I have been doing it for quite some time I would do it and highly advise it. It accomplishes sooooo much

clears my head
eliminates entitlement tilt
gets body in motion
enables me to refocus
prevents autopilot
the list of benefits is long
Great stuff squid, I take breaks, but I'd benefit from being stricter with myself on the regularity.

I'm reminded of a guy who I coolered months ago at 2-5 (in FL, perhaps not coincidently) . Decent player. After the cooler, he started going on about his quota is $2000, he never leaves a session until he's up $2000. He really sounded so sincere as he bought back in for $200.
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Old 12-05-2015, 07:40 AM   #11986
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I'm similar to that guy - I just never leave till I'm down 400bb
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Old 12-05-2015, 01:09 PM   #11987
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
@44dd

the beautiful thing about poker is the fact that people are able to lie to themselves and actually believe it. "God I run sooooo bad...no one runs worse than me...etc". I am extremly lucky. EVERY one of my poker buddies is smarter than I am. SPC is massively smarter. I am constantly discussing hands and mistakes that I make. 2 nights ago I made a 360$ mistake. I am still pissed at myself...but the good news is I will not make that same mistake for a very very long time

variance happens and cant be controlled. Bad play can.

I have said this before and will give it up again B/c I think it it that important. In my current locale I have never ever seen sooo much entitlement tilt. It is nuts. I realized that it was starting to creep in on me. Boom got up took a walk - problem solved.

I dont really talk about it but I have had too many concussions from my athletic career and I have quite a few issues with the effects of them and they have been increasing over the years. I now take a mandatory orbit off every 1.5-2 hours depending on how I am feeling. Even if I did not have these issues now that I have been doing it for quite some time I would do it and highly advise it. It accomplishes sooooo much

clears my head
eliminates entitlement tilt
gets body in motion
enables me to refocus
prevents autopilot
the list of benefits is long
Good post. I definitely have noticed entitlement tilt is much easier to creep in when playing live compared to online.

Just curious, what do you mean when you say you made a $360 mistake? Did you calculate it cost you $360 of EV, or is it something like you bluffed off $360?

Mind sharing the hand, btw? Obv no prob if you would rather not.
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Old 12-05-2015, 05:49 PM   #11988
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Originally Posted by Ragequit99 View Post
I'm similar to that guy - I just never leave till I'm down 400bb
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

and then you rage quit obviously
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Old 12-06-2015, 06:09 AM   #11989
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Almost at 500 tracked hours in a db started March 2014, though as people always say, I think I'm a much better player now than I was at the start.



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Old 12-06-2015, 06:25 AM   #11990
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
+2600 over 5 sessions
-2600 over 2 sessions

Da fking pokerz man
+5200 over 5 sessions
-1800 in one session

Why does the 1 session feel so much worse always than the 5 sessions? If you had told me a week ago that I'd be up 3400 in a week, I'd say, hell yeah, bring it.
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Old 12-06-2015, 06:36 AM   #11991
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Mixture of entitlement and regret.

You feel that you're entitled to win more money, because you had won in previous 5 sessions.

You feel regret because you thought that weird sensation between your toes was an obvious sign that you will have a losing session, and yet you ignored it.

Spoiler:
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Old 12-06-2015, 09:13 AM   #11992
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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

and then you rage quit obviously
Is there another way to quit?
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:18 PM   #11993
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Couldn't disagree more for 1/2 player. If your at a great table, and you have a 4k bankroll. Spin a $200 buy-in up to $600 I am never leaving, because of a stupid 10% rule.

Your risk of ruin is hardly effected. Having $3800 or having $4400 with $600 in play.

Most of the time effective stacks will be much lower than your stack.

The benefits of table image, and running well, (plus it highly likely you are playing well), just out weigh the chances of going broke.

Obviously depends on your winrate. But ROR are fairly close if you have 19 buyins or 22.

When building a bankroll. The big nights you can have at great 1/2 games are paramount.

For a rec player (with a bankroll), capping your wins while building bankroll is foolish.

If-
-your winning player
-if your at great table
-if you have 15+ buy-in bankroll

I am about to get hammered for this. So here is disclaimer.

Don't play 1/2 as pro. Get a job, play recreationaly. If you are so worried about losing 20 buy-in, that you have to cap your winnings. Then move down stakes.

Losing 20 buy-ins at 1/2 is highly unlikely for winning player live.
I think people who think the bolded either have no idea how much a solid winning player can make at 1/2, or how difficult getting and keeping a good job is these days.

The fact is that compared to your run of the mill part-time job, if you have a winrate of 5bb/hour you're coming out ahead. Compared to the most common (worst paid) full-time jobs, you're ahead of the curve at about 8bb/hour. At 10bb/hour you're making more than most jobs with less than an associate's degree pay, and more than most small businesses make per hour. And the fact is that most people with degrees are emerging into saturated marketplaces and not finding jobs.

And that's all without a boss, a dress code, or a schedule.

Obviously if you do have a job you should keep it as long as possible (zero-variance income) until your bankroll and play level surpass your regular earnings, but stating that one shouldn't under any circumstances go pro at 1/2 is silly. It handily beats the sh*t out of retail hell, or being a janitor or working at a warehouse.

Last edited by Aleksei; 12-06-2015 at 01:40 PM.
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:45 PM   #11994
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The employment gap is also potentially not really a problem. If you actually socialize at the table (as opposed to sitting quietly with headphones on), you will likely meet some reasonably successful people (presumably most people who have $200-1000 to dump at a poker game in a night, and aren't doing it professionally or semi-professionally, will be doing well in life). Which means at least some will be in a position to employ you, or recommend you to someone that will just because you're friends with so-and-so.
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:46 PM   #11995
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Think about the future though. Not everyone can "climb the ladder" in poker. More people fall off than move up. Or the games could dry up or whatever. Not saying they will but you don't know they won't.

At least with the minimum wage job, if you get laid off you've got a line on your resume and a reference. And you actually know you're out of a job, and don't spend six months thinking you're "downswinging" playing -EV.
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:53 PM   #11996
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The employment gap is also potentially not really a problem. If you actually socialize at the table (as opposed to sitting quietly with headphones on), you will likely meet some reasonably successful people (presumably most people who have $200-1000 to dump at a poker game in a night, and aren't doing it professionally or semi-professionally, will be doing well in life). Which means at least some will be in a position to employ you, or recommend you to someone that will just because you're friends with so-and-so.

Hope you're not serious...
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Old 12-06-2015, 01:57 PM   #11997
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Landing a decent job is more about meeting the right person and impressing them than about what your resume says. Plus embellishing a resume isn't that difficult -- find some form of self-employment you can do for a few hours a week, or just spend time volunteering for something (preferably a cause you believe in).

And yes I am serious. Lotgrinder has an entire rolodex of business contacts, many of them obtained at 1/2 -- and he grinds possibly the sh*ttiest 1/2 in America (Detroit).
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Old 12-06-2015, 02:03 PM   #11998
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Now I know you're joking when you're citing Lotgrinder as reference.

If your idea of job reference is at a poker table, then you probably should really reevaluate your 5-year plan.
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Old 12-06-2015, 02:45 PM   #11999
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I really agree with aleksei when he says people underestimate how much money you can make playing 1/2 fulltime.

As a disclaimer my game is 1/3 with a MS straddle but that only became my main game about 1/2 way into my career.

In the 2 years I've been a professional gambler I've managed to buy a house, acquire a second dog, go on at least half a dozen mini vacations and overall live a pretty cushy life!

With that being said I am infact a ruthless cheapskate and am able to live on much less then the average guy
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Old 12-06-2015, 02:55 PM   #12000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
Almost at 500 tracked hours in a db started March 2014, though as people always say, I think I'm a much better player now than I was at the start.



Can I quote you as saying:

"I can say with full confidence that if it were not for Two Plus Two Publishing and their website, I would not have been able to proudly post my rapid improvement in cash games over the last year."
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