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Old 11-09-2015, 12:15 PM   #11726
NeverLosesAtPoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd recommend staying away from 2/5 PLO unless you have a really big roll.
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Old 11-09-2015, 02:09 PM   #11727
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ill go 1 step further and advise playing 1/2 plo as much as possible
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Old 11-09-2015, 02:19 PM   #11728
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LoL, I'm just saying in general 5/5 PLO plays bigger than 5/T NL. People play it because the blinds are small and lol short buyin but the variance is HUGE.
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Old 11-09-2015, 03:56 PM   #11729
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Or people just play it for fun because they can afford it?
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:08 PM   #11730
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Or people just play it for fun because they can afford it?
Ah no, friends don't let friends play plolol
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Old 11-09-2015, 04:47 PM   #11731
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
LoL, I'm just saying in general 5/5 PLO plays bigger than 5/T NL. People play it because the blinds are small and lol short buyin but the variance is HUGE.
The negative money is really all just one hand when a very bad river card hit for me in a very big pot.

I've built up a decent sized bankroll the last couple years through work and poker but the reason I play mostly 1-2 and 1-3 is that's normally all that's available in my area, only on weekends do the PLO games run, and for 2-5 the only game around is 100 miles away.
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Old 11-16-2015, 01:26 PM   #11732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I remember when I first read your strategy post, I asked if you always shove the nuts otr, how long did you think it'd be until people noticed. Are you still doing it as often and getting fewer calls?, or seeing face up folds you used to not get. I haven't prison raped since April, guys just seem to love folding and showing how "good" they are. I'd say you probably need to get value a little at a time now not all at once, and increase your non-SD winnings.
I think there are lots of reasons for the differences in my winrates, but right near the top are (a) the overall play of the player pool (from long time whales to long time fish to randoms as well as new regs with which I have no history) has improved *dramatically*, and (b) the good regs with whom I do have history know my play book pretty well (and I'm trying to change my game vs them).

Gitiswhatitis,I'mcurioustoseehowallthisplaysoutlon gtermG
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Old 11-16-2015, 01:33 PM   #11733
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The reason I know his edge in the 1/3 game is because I've played in it myself and it's an unbelievable game, rake free and some of the worst players you can imagine.
Games change. Just something to keep in mind if he's attempting to take a long term view.

GmrpessimistG
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Old 11-16-2015, 03:45 PM   #11734
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I think there are lots of reasons for the differences in my winrates, but right near the top are (a) the overall play of the player pool (from long time whales to long time fish to randoms as well as new regs with which I have no history) has improved *dramatically*, and (b) the good regs with whom I do have history know my play book pretty well (and I'm trying to change my game vs them).

Gitiswhatitis,I'mcurioustoseehowallthisplaysoutlon gtermG
GG, no offense intended but based on your WR trajectory, it seems like you started out hot and your game has caught up to you. I've noticed I disagree with a lot of your strategy posts because you usually recommend a more passive line then I would take (and I think you miss a healthy amount of value bets). I would imagine you are rarely getting paid on your nutted hands because your player pool knows you always have it when the money goes in.
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Old 11-16-2015, 04:00 PM   #11735
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GG, no offense intended but based on your WR trajectory, it seems like you started out hot and your game has caught up to you. I've noticed I disagree with a lot of your strategy posts because you usually recommend a more passive line then I would take (and I think you miss a healthy amount of value bets). I would imagine you are rarely getting paid on your nutted hands because your player pool knows you always have it when the money goes in.
Definitely another part of the equation is that I believe I probably did run pretty well for those first ~1800 hours and so it's unfair to compare my more recent results to those since those might be inflated. Although, honestly, I kinda thought ~1800 hours was a decent sample size and so you can understand why I would continue with a if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it strategy.

At the same time, I think I'm beginning to really get a better grasp of "variance" and all the forms it takes. There are still lots and lots and lots of players in my pool where anyone shoving with the nuts on the river is going to get paid off (I see it multiple times every session); a big part of variance is who you end up on the river against when you finally do make a hand.

Would really be interesting to see Atsai's overall 14K hour graph to see the ups/downs I'm guessing he's experienced over that run.

Gstillchalkingupalargepartofthisto"variance"(admit tedly,thecrutchofeverylosingpokerplayer)G
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Old 11-16-2015, 04:53 PM   #11736
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I've tried to play dumb and ignorant when it comes to variance, telling myself things like "variance doesn't matter live, the edges are bigger, every session is different" etc. but the more hours I put in the more I notice it.

I can't say I've had a soul crushing bad streak for 6 months or anything, but the last few months have been a slog of 2 steps forward, one step back and sometimes 2 steps forward, 3 steps back. Poker has a way of constantly keeping your ego in check and knocking you down a few pegs on the totem pole.
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Old 11-16-2015, 05:25 PM   #11737
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Poker has a way of constantly keeping your ego in check and knocking you down a few pegs on the totem pole.
+1

One thing I'm looking forward to in the next month (especially since I'll be sneaking in an extra daytime Friday session every week) is that the local competing neighbouring room has temporarily shut down for renovations, which means table selection will now improve in my room. Even noticed a huge difference this last session (where I saw more tables going during a day shift on a Saturday than I had all year: 3 and was 4 by the time I left).

GputteringalongG
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Old 11-16-2015, 05:45 PM   #11738
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I've tried to play dumb and ignorant when it comes to variance, telling myself things like "variance doesn't matter live, the edges are bigger, every session is different" etc. but the more hours I put in the more I notice it.

I can't say I've had a soul crushing bad streak for 6 months or anything, but the last few months have been a slog of 2 steps forward, one step back and sometimes 2 steps forward, 3 steps back. Poker has a way of constantly keeping your ego in check and knocking you down a few pegs on the totem pole.

Has it changed your mind in any way about turning pro? Or is your current hours played per week going to be the same anyways?
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Old 11-17-2015, 12:45 AM   #11739
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I think there are lots of reasons for the differences in my winrates, but right near the top are (a) the overall play of the player pool (from long time whales to long time fish to randoms as well as new regs with which I have no history) has improved *dramatically*, and (b) the good regs with whom I do have history know my play book pretty well (and I'm trying to change my game vs them).

Gitiswhatitis,I'mcurioustoseehowallthisplaysoutlon gtermG
Do you keep a journal on the regs?

I started doing this around 3 months ago. Figuring out their ranges from various positions and what various pf sizing means should be pretty useful. Also been spending time away from the table coming up with some exploitive lines against specific regs: eg. plan to bluff raise a bet/folde, 3 bet light against the old guy who will give me too much respect, float ''one and done c betters'', double barrel the guy that calls the flop light and folds the turn, etc etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I've tried to play dumb and ignorant when it comes to variance, telling myself things like "variance doesn't matter live, the edges are bigger, every session is different" etc. but the more hours I put in the more I notice it.

I can't say I've had a soul crushing bad streak for 6 months or anything, but the last few months have been a slog of 2 steps forward, one step back and sometimes 2 steps forward, 3 steps back. Poker has a way of constantly keeping your ego in check and knocking you down a few pegs on the totem pole.
I feel ya. I´m down almost $5K at $1/2 in the last couple of weeks. When you start expecting to lose as the favorite, well, poker just isn´t fun anymore. Luckily I had some big wins at $2/5 and $5/10 leading up to this.

I actually went to Church on Sunday for the first time in many years. If it doesn´t help I´ll probably try another faith next Sunday.
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Old 11-17-2015, 12:50 AM   #11740
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2500bb at 1/2 just cannot be all variance.
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Old 11-17-2015, 12:54 AM   #11741
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What he doesn't tell you is that it isn't a typical 100bb 1/2 game.

For whatever reason, even though some of these posters know that their games aren't standard 100bb games, they make comparison as if they are the same.
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Old 11-17-2015, 01:56 AM   #11742
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Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if KM had a 500ish per hour stddev. But also agree that variance wouldn't be my first guess at explaining a downswing of that size.
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Old 11-17-2015, 01:58 AM   #11743
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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
What he doesn't tell you is that it isn't a typical 100bb 1/2 game.

For whatever reason, even though some of these posters know that their games aren't standard 100bb games, they make comparison as if they are the same.


500max game.

Last edited by kookiemonster; 11-17-2015 at 02:07 AM.
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Old 11-17-2015, 02:05 AM   #11744
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I dropped 6k in 40 hours once at 2-5. The further that gets in my rear view mirror, the more it looks like spew to me.
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Old 11-17-2015, 02:11 AM   #11745
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500max game.
Exactly my point.
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Old 11-17-2015, 02:13 AM   #11746
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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Do you keep a journal on the regs?

I started doing this around 3 months ago. Figuring out their ranges from various positions and what various pf sizing means should be pretty useful. Also been spending time away from the table coming up with some exploitive lines against specific regs: eg. plan to bluff raise a bet/folde, 3 bet light against the old guy who will give me too much respect, float ''one and done c betters'', double barrel the guy that calls the flop light and folds the turn, etc etc.
Journals/logs are a good idea. I started taking notes on all the bad 2/5 regs I thought I'd be able to exploit and sadly many of them have disappeared. I guess I know why. The regs that remain are tougher to crack so 2/5 has been a work in progress.

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I feel ya. I´m down almost $5K at $1/2 in the last couple of weeks. When you start expecting to lose as the favorite, well, poker just isn´t fun anymore. Luckily I had some big wins at $2/5 and $5/10 leading up to this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post


500max game.
What is your 2/5 and 10/10 max BI?

I guess if I had a 500 max 1/2 I would play that more often. I rarely play 1/2 anymore, once a month maybe. But my room has a 500 max 1/3 so it's fairly similar and very juicy. My 1/3 WR (limited sample size) is absolutely ridiculous and blows my 2/5 (run bad I hope) out of the water.

How often are you playing 2/5? 10/10?
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Old 11-17-2015, 02:28 AM   #11747
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Exactly my point.
Obv. I was trying to mislead everyone.
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Old 11-17-2015, 03:10 AM   #11748
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What is your 2/5 and 10/10 max BI?

I guess if I had a 500 max 1/2 I would play that more often. I rarely play 1/2 anymore, once a month maybe. But my room has a 500 max 1/3 so it's fairly similar and very juicy. My 1/3 WR (limited sample size) is absolutely ridiculous and blows my 2/5 (run bad I hope) out of the water.

How often are you playing 2/5? 10/10?
$2/5 is $1K
$5/10 is $2K

I´d say once a week on average. Honestly, I only play if I see bad $1/2 players sitting.
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Old 11-17-2015, 10:23 AM   #11749
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Has it changed your mind in any way about turning pro? Or is your current hours played per week going to be the same anyways?
It hasn't changed my mind, but I do intend to put in a significantly larger number of hours at 2/5 before making a decision. At least 1,000 or so (while continuing to save from my primary job). No need to make a rash decision and jump the gun.
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Old 11-17-2015, 10:26 AM   #11750
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It hasn't changed my mind, but I do intend to put in a significantly larger number of hours at 2/5 before making a decision. At least 1,000 or so (while continuing to save from my primary job). No need to make a rash decision and jump the gun.
Are you happy in your life currently johny?
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