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Old 11-05-2015, 06:21 PM   #11651
Pots-For-Sale
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also play around with a variance calculator here...

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Gives you a better idea of how brutal it can be instead of talking about one guys smoking hot run in the ME decades ago.
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:32 PM   #11652
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Apparently he was correct no? Did u or did you not 5! All in with QQ? If you're only stacking off KK+ and AKs or something you're leaving money on the table 100bbs deep. That's why the guy snapped called you. It's the most standard spot in the whole wide world. What's insane is that you were surprised he snap called u with AK.

Good luck sitting around in a $10 blind game and nut peddling your way to a nice winrate.
Not sure why you are getting so worked up over this. I made it pretty clear I was taking a one-time shot at T/T due to no other games being available and was just expressing my thoughts on how the game played.

I'm not sure why you are asking me rhetorical questions about my HH. Yes - of course I 5! QQ, and you said he was correct to call with AKo because I had 9 combos of AK and I merely corrected you and said I only have 2 combos of AKs. AKo I probably just flat call and shove all flops. So if you adjust your calculation for only two AKs I'm guessing it will spit out he did not have the equity needed.

But enough of a thread derail...
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:38 PM   #11653
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
FWIW, your equity calculation is including 7 combos of AKo that I wouldn't be shoving with (only the 2 remaining AKs)

Idk ... if I am putting my stack in the middle with AK, I would like to be the one MAKING the all-in bet, not simply calling and hoping I'm not completely ****ed
I mean.. they did just see you shipping and showing down 77 on 9 high
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:40 PM   #11654
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You were saying you are glad to see the same sloppy play at 10/10 for later when the guys call was completely and utterly correct and standard. If anything your play with 65ss was sloppy tbh.

So I'm not following you? You're saying you're only jamming there with 2 combos of AKs and calling every combo of AKo and jamming flop instead? That is your strategy with AK? What about the other 2 combos of suited AK? I just want to learn more about how you're saying you're constructing you range in this spot.

And where did this "9" combos come from? I'm not getting worked up. Just trying to understand how you're thinking about this spot. You were obviously looking for feed back and discussion when posting the hands ITT. I'm just trying to oblige.
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:41 PM   #11655
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You know there are 16 combos of AK total right?
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:49 PM   #11656
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AK is blocked from villain's perspective...
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:56 PM   #11657
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You want V to believe your range is narrow and yet clearly your range isn't...
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Old 11-05-2015, 06:58 PM   #11658
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AK is blocked from villain's perspective...

Ah yes of course.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:00 PM   #11659
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FWIW, I think it's one of those backwards logic that V is somehow one level below instead one above.

Johnny didn't want to accept that V could be better and therefore he could only be worse.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:43 PM   #11660
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I mean.. they did just see you shipping and showing down 77 on 9 high
So what's your point? I thought I had the best hand so I shipped it (and was correct). I'd think the table should be more excited by the guy that called me off with (what I'm guessing was) AK. The table saw all 3 hands I played - AQo (called value bet won at showdown), AQs (called bluff lost at showdown) 77 (called shove won at showdown) so I don't think he can make some crazy assumption that I am 5! shoving light after playing tight up to that point.

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FWIW, I think it's one of those backwards logic that V is somehow one level below instead one above.

Johnny didn't want to accept that V could be better and therefore he could only be worse.
The whole point I was trying to make was that if I had to guess whether the villain was some wizard that did the mental math in his head and instantly knew his equity, or just looked at his cards and said "I have AK, **** it" - then I would go with the latter.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:46 PM   #11661
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So if you were in villain's shoes, you would fold AK and then feel ok when he shows you that his range is wider than you think?
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Old 11-05-2015, 08:14 PM   #11662
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Past the 2,500 hour mark at live 1/3 NL last night.

Overall, the picture looks fine: 8.17 bb/hr

But, on closer inspection, the writing might be on the wall (???)...

The first 1,774 hours (admittedly stopping right before my worst downswing): 10.12 bb/hr

The last 732 hours (admittedly including my two poor downswings): 3.45 bb/hr

Ouch!

GnotcompletelysureIknowhowtobeatmygameforareasonab lerateanymoreG
I remember when I first read your strategy post, I asked if you always shove the nuts otr, how long did you think it'd be until people noticed. Are you still doing it as often and getting fewer calls?, or seeing face up folds you used to not get. I haven't prison raped since April, guys just seem to love folding and showing how "good" they are. I'd say you probably need to get value a little at a time now not all at once, and increase your non-SD winnings.
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Old 11-05-2015, 10:18 PM   #11663
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
So what's your point? I thought I had the best hand so I shipped it (and was correct). I'd think the table should be more excited by the guy that called me off with (what I'm guessing was) AK. The table saw all 3 hands I played - AQo (called value bet won at showdown), AQs (called bluff lost at showdown) 77 (called shove won at showdown) so I don't think he can make some crazy assumption that I am 5! shoving light after playing tight up to that point.



The whole point I was trying to make was that if I had to guess whether the villain was some wizard that did the mental math in his head and instantly knew his equity, or just looked at his cards and said "I have AK, **** it" - then I would go with the latter.

You don't have to be a wizard. This is the easiest level 1 math in the game. I'd be willing to bet he didn't think about it further once he 4 bet you. He decides before he put any more money in that he was calling a shove. Why would your jam change that decision? I can't remember the last time I 3/4/5 bet some one without thinking what to do next if this or that happens.

And the 77 hand demonstrates to the table you're somewhat thinking about the game and what your opponents have and that you probably are not a nit.
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Old 11-05-2015, 10:28 PM   #11664
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You don't have to be a wizard. This is the easiest level 1 math in the game. I'd be willing to bet he didn't think about it further once he 4 bet you. He decides before he put any more money in that he was calling a shove. Why would your jam change that decision? I can't remember the last time I 3/4/5 bet some one without thinking what to do next if this or that happens.

And the 77 hand demonstrates to the table you're somewhat thinking about the game and what your opponents have and that you probably are not a nit.
Do you think he was right to 4!?

And if I know (in the future) that I have no FE there, am I better off just flatting his 4! and shoving (or check/shoving) all flops since I'm committed to my hand but would rather he doesn't see 5 cards?

Sorry for thread derail can answer by pm if you want.
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Old 11-05-2015, 10:37 PM   #11665
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JB: I honestly think the hand is totally standard. You are playing 50bb poker here. You are in the CO he is button. He has a "real hand". When he makes it 250 he is never ever ever folding.
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Old 11-05-2015, 11:32 PM   #11666
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I finally take another peek at this thread and-

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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
One of the slumber party pros .
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:56 AM   #11667
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Do you think he was right to 4!?

And if I know (in the future) that I have no FE there, am I better off just flatting his 4! and shoving (or check/shoving) all flops since I'm committed to my hand but would rather he doesn't see 5 cards?

Sorry for thread derail can answer by pm if you want.
Even if you call he is never bet/folding the flop..

He is either shoving for a PSB, or bet/calling. Nobody folds AK pre in an aggressive game johnny.
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:07 AM   #11668
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Where are the best 5/T games in the country if a player wants to improve his win rate and bankroll
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Old 11-06-2015, 09:26 AM   #11669
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Where are the best 5/T games in the country if a player wants to improve his win rate and bankroll
Depends on whether or not a player has a life roll to deal with a higher cost of living.
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Old 11-06-2015, 10:22 AM   #11670
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I remember when I first read your strategy post, I asked if you always shove the nuts otr, how long did you think it'd be until people noticed. Are you still doing it as often and getting fewer calls?, or seeing face up folds you used to not get. I haven't prison raped since April, guys just seem to love folding and showing how "good" they are. I'd say you probably need to get value a little at a time now not all at once, and increase your non-SD winnings.
There is an interesting dynamic where people love to show their folds. Showing a few big bluffs usually remedies this for a long time. Only problem is making the big bluffs
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Old 11-06-2015, 10:41 AM   #11671
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got meself back on track with a 14 hundo session at 2/5 last night. wild week so far

+1400 (1/3)
-2000 (T/T)
+1400 (2/5)
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:18 AM   #11672
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If you think his range is basically AKo+, then the most optimal line is probably flatting pre and check/folding if an A or K flop, and check/shoving any other flop -- extracts the most value from AK while denying him like 20% equity, loses the minimum when we get out-flopped, and does the same thing for when he has KK/AA.

It can also extract some extra value if he ever has bluffs here -- this is somewhat contradicting logic though, because me saying that be more reason as to why we should be shoving pre if he does in fact have bluffs and our plan is to fold on A or K high flops.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:39 AM   #11673
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Live poker variance is just dumb sometimes. I have played a ton of live poker (14k+ hours), and I am seeing things now that I have never seen before. I have never been exiled to the soul-crushing abyss that others have visited before, but I am currently experiencing the opposite. Feels like a dream from which I never want to wake up.
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Old 11-06-2015, 12:30 PM   #11674
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Live poker variance is just dumb sometimes. I have played a ton of live poker (14k+ hours), and I am seeing things now that I have never seen before. I have never been exiled to the soul-crushing abyss that others have visited before, but I am currently experiencing the opposite. Feels like a dream from which I never want to wake up.
Nice barg.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:18 PM   #11675
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Do you think he was right to 4!?

And if I know (in the future) that I have no FE there, am I better off just flatting his 4! and shoving (or check/shoving) all flops since I'm committed to my hand but would rather he doesn't see 5 cards?

Sorry for thread derail can answer by pm if you want.

He 3-bet you after you raised one limper of the straddle. You 4-bet shipped.
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