Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

News, Views, and Gossip For poker news, views and gossip.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-12-2020, 03:57 PM   #12451
Jay Why
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Lundun
Posts: 945
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimM View Post
This case is like a nurse being in a hospital where lots of perfectly healthy babies die under her watch, and it's a huge statistical anomaly compared to death rates all other hospitals. Also there is hallway security camera footage showing her going into rooms and being alone with each baby before it died. But we don't know how she did it so we can't do or say anything, right?
Correct. And that is Postle's position too, that it is wrong to accuse without definitive evidence.
Jay Why is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2020, 04:04 PM   #12452
Wilbury Twist
Pooh-Bah
 
Wilbury Twist's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: 4977 miles from Kells
Posts: 5,331
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

For what it's worth, what TimM drew up in his example would be pretty strong evidence. Circumstantial, yes, but strong as hell. As you know, circumstantial doesn't mean weak, in the same way that direct evidence doesn't mean strong.
Wilbury Twist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2020, 04:49 PM   #12453
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,538
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The analogy gets a bit contrived if I try to come up with a way the nurse could financially benefit from these babies dying, and then someone unearths an old video of her sister saying "my sister is so greedy she would kill babies if it would make her a buck".

And yet, there are real cases like this, where medical professionals get accused and investigated on very thin evidence, and then real evidence is found. I remember this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Angelo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_...y_(criminology)
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2020, 05:08 PM   #12454
WotPeed
adept
 
WotPeed's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Gettin' Paid
Posts: 881
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Don't forget the nurse stares at her crotch for 15 seconds before every baby dies.
WotPeed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2020, 05:26 PM   #12455
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,538
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by WotPeed View Post
Don't forget the nurse stares at her crotch for 15 seconds before every baby dies.
I've gone down a bad internet rabbit hole...

Quote:
One such killer was nurse Jane Toppan, who admitted during her murder trial that she was sexually aroused by death. She would administer a drug mixture to patients she chose as her victims, lie in bed with them and hold them close to her body as they died.
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 01:16 AM   #12456
executiveauto
centurion
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Boston
Posts: 155
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
As quoted, you are completely 100% incorrect. Most people accusing someone of a crime actual have complete immunity in the U.S., regardless if the accused is found guilty or not. Thanks for sharing your incorrect opinion so late in the game though. It was really beneficial.
What I have been saying is 100% correct. no need to get c*nty. If you accuse someone the way they didit opens you up to Defamation, Slander, and Libel. I am sorry i assumed you could have figured out what i mean after the posts I made. All my fault. I forget some people can't go form A to D without stopping off twice. Thanks for sharing your uneducated opinion this late in the game though. It was very beneficial.
executiveauto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 01:30 AM   #12457
executiveauto
centurion
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Boston
Posts: 155
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist View Post
For starters, my point was simply to refute this part of your previous post:



I'm unsure why you're unsure, as I specifically wrote the inverse of your own words:



My point is the sentence as written, particularly in context to your sentence as written. Shouldn't be a lot of gray area here, but I'll leave it to others to decide if I was being cryptic or ambiguous. (And mea culpa, apologies, etc. if I was.)

Not for nothing, when it comes to the hypothetical accusation that I like to sleep with dogs, it would be relatively easy for me to prove it wrong. (Okay, pretty difficult here in an online forum, but easy in the real world.) I'm allergic to dogs, there is zero evidence that I have ever slept with a dog, and plenty of evidence that i.e. my residence, and by extension, my actual place of sleep is and has been dog-free.

Still, that's a fair larger point on your part: there are plenty of hypothetical accusations you could have raised that would be nearly impossible for me to disprove. You just happened to stumble upon a poor example. Not your fault, you didn't know.

As for this...



It is now. The burden shifted on him when he became the plaintiff in a defamation action. When he was the defendant in the previous complaint, he had no legal obligation to prove his innocence. Rather, the burden was on Verstandig to prove that he cheated. But by flipping it around, Postle, or his representation, now has to show that "all the ppl" are guilty of making false accusations, which means he has to – wait for it – prove them wrong.

Also...



This is also a conditional, with the condition being "if you caused damages." Postle will have to prove that, too. Of course, this part should go without saying, but I thought I'd mention it, since you were previously "unsure" about the meaning of my previous post.
New to the forum. I'll keep in mind that some of you have nothing better to do than nitpick each word instead of being able to get the gist of it. I must say I am enjoying posting and reading posts. The same bs nonsense I overhear at the poker table is very prevalent here.

Of course there needs to be damage caused by all the players that bashed MP, that should go without saying along with other things but that doesn't seem to be the way here.
This seems to be a more, lets see if so and so leaves out a meaningless detail so I can pounce on him, then waste my life trying to show my intellectual superiority. And of course the posts miss the entire point, but thank you for the lesson.
executiveauto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 06:18 AM   #12458
tiltnation
stranger
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 1
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
This case is like a nurse being in a hospital where lots of babies die under her watch, which would raise suspicions, but with no firm evidence that is all there would be, suspicion, and so to call the nurse a murderer, in the same way that Postle was called a cheater, is dangerous, even if mathematically and circumstantially it is most probable.
Hi, new user who has lurked in the forums for a while, and have read every single post in this thread.

I think you are from the UK like me, in which case you are probably aware of this exact case in the news right now. Probably a case worth following..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...yside-54913047
tiltnation is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 02:16 PM   #12459
jjjou812
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,551
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by executiveauto View Post
What I have been saying is 100% correct. no need to get c*nty. If you accuse someone the way they didit opens you up to Defamation, Slander, and Libel. I am sorry i assumed you could have figured out what i mean after the posts I made. All my fault. I forget some people can't go form A to D without stopping off twice. Thanks for sharing your uneducated opinion this late in the game though. It was very beneficial.

We will see if the lawsuit is successful and opened them up to your three causes of action. The filing of the lawsuit does not determine if he will succeed with his claims. If he loses the lawsuit, were you 100% wrong?

You don’t communicate very well because you lack understanding of the issues, misuse and misunderstand terminology and you clearly lack any ambition to waste your life proving any intellectual superiority. And, of course, you don’t seem to learn anything from being corrected by every poster in this thread that responded to you.
jjjou812 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 05:01 PM   #12460
Jay Why
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Lundun
Posts: 945
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltnation View Post
Hi, new user who has lurked in the forums for a while, and have read every single post in this thread.

I think you are from the UK like me, in which case you are probably aware of this exact case in the news right now. Probably a case worth following..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...yside-54913047
Yes, that case was on my mind when I made the original comparison. I think people have got so filled with self righteous anger against Postle, they have lost sight of the fact that accusations should have evidence in order to be taken seriously, otherwise it is just circumstantial suspicion, which is not persuasive. The point that people have made about high levels of surveillance in hospitals is well made, but that is because of the heightened awareness from rogue medical staff. Postle may be the same, in future if any player has impossibly high win rates in a series of games, people now may think it is possible the player is cheating, and they may try to find evidence of this before openly accusing that player.
Jay Why is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 05:05 PM   #12461
PLIKITYPLAK
veteran
 
PLIKITYPLAK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,512
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
Yes, that case was on my mind when I made the original comparison. I think people have got so filled with self righteous anger against Postle, they have lost sight of the fact that accusations should have evidence in order to be taken seriously, otherwise it is just circumstantial suspicion, which is not persuasive. The point that people have made about high levels of surveillance in hospitals is well made, but that is because of the heightened awareness from rogue medical staff. Postle may be the same, in future if any player has impossibly high win rates in a series of games, people now may think it is possible the player is cheating, and they may try to find evidence of this before openly accusing that player.
Evidence against Postle, even being circumstantial, has been irrefutable sooooo....
PLIKITYPLAK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 05:24 PM   #12462
Wilbury Twist
Pooh-Bah
 
Wilbury Twist's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: 4977 miles from Kells
Posts: 5,331
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PLIKITYPLAK View Post
Evidence against Postle, even being circumstantial, has been irrefutable sooooo....
Meh, not necessarily.

For example, the exact dollar figure he won is somewhat questionable because it often did not account for add-ons, which the person compiling even admitted. As a result, there are also some estimations of win rates that are based on this data PLUS they don't account for things like straddles.

So irrefutable? No. Still damning, though. As Todd Witteles said on his own podcast, you could cut the total winnings in half, and it would still be a highly unlikely figure in light of many other factors.

Of course, other circumstantial things, like the placement of the phone before and after his uptick, are not in question. He certainly moved the phone from the rail to his lap at a very specific point, and the video certainly shows that he repeated look down (ostensibly at his cards, but realistically into his lap) in a way that he didn't do before.

One thing I'd like to do, and maybe will do at some point, is to quantify how much he looked at his phone during hands back when he kept the device on the rail. Then compare that to the amount of time spent looking at his phone during the year in question. After all, this would either support or refute the idea that he was merely checking sports scores or dick pics or whatever was on that screen.
Wilbury Twist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 05:36 PM   #12463
PLIKITYPLAK
veteran
 
PLIKITYPLAK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,512
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist View Post
Meh, not necessarily.

For example, the exact dollar figure he won is somewhat questionable because it often did not account for add-ons, which the person compiling even admitted. As a result, there are also some estimations of win rates that are based on this data PLUS they don't account for things like straddles.

So irrefutable? No. Still damning, though. As Todd Witteles said on his own podcast, you could cut the total winnings in half, and it would still be a highly unlikely figure in light of many other factors.

Of course, other circumstantial things, like the placement of the phone before and after his uptick, are not in question. He certainly moved the phone from the rail to his lap at a very specific point, and the video certainly shows that he repeated look down (ostensibly at his cards, but realistically into his lap) in a way that he didn't do before.

One thing I'd like to do, and maybe will do at some point, is to quantify how much he looked at his phone during hands back when he kept the device on the rail. Then compare that to the amount of time spent looking at his phone during the year in question. After all, this would either support or refute the idea that he was merely checking sports scores or dick pics or whatever was on that screen.
nah, it is a slam dunk. Whether he cheated people out of $200K or $250K because add ons or whatever wasn't accounted doesn't change that.
PLIKITYPLAK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2020, 06:11 PM   #12464
Wilbury Twist
Pooh-Bah
 
Wilbury Twist's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: 4977 miles from Kells
Posts: 5,331
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PLIKITYPLAK View Post
nah, it is a slam dunk. Whether he cheated people out of $200K or $250K because add ons or whatever wasn't accounted doesn't change that.
Yeah, that's fair... that it's some large amount is not in question.

And not for nothing, it's why I look forward to Team Galfond's research (if he ends up doing it). I'll be very curious to see the exact figures, statistics, etc. I often go back to that Postle vs. Potripper graphic -- interesting to see exactly where it puts him on there.
Wilbury Twist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 12:08 AM   #12465
GreatBigRedOne
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 618
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
Yes, that case was on my mind when I made the original comparison. I think people have got so filled with self righteous anger against Postle, they have lost sight of the fact that accusations should have evidence in order to be taken seriously, otherwise it is just circumstantial suspicion, which is not persuasive. The point that people have made about high levels of surveillance in hospitals is well made, but that is because of the heightened awareness from rogue medical staff. Postle may be the same, in future if any player has impossibly high win rates in a series of games, people now may think it is possible the player is cheating, and they may try to find evidence of this before openly accusing that player.
How long before this ridiculous myth of impossible win rate is put to bed? You don't calculate standard deviation for 1/3 when your playing 10/25. You don't get to input variance as nitty 500 zoom when your calculating for loose game full of fish. You don't get to exclude rebuys and add ons. The single bit of unconflicted evidence in this case is crotch staring.
GreatBigRedOne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 01:43 AM   #12466
Jay Why
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Lundun
Posts: 945
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreatBigRedOne View Post
How long before this ridiculous myth of impossible win rate is put to bed? You don't calculate standard deviation for 1/3 when your playing 10/25. You don't get to input variance as nitty 500 zoom when your calculating for loose game full of fish. You don't get to exclude rebuys and add ons. The single bit of unconflicted evidence in this case is crotch staring.
OK, this case boils down to two big questions.

1 What is the evidence against Postle?

2 How strongly does the US law take that evidence into account when deciding if it is fair to say Postle cheated?

This thread has explored 1, and found the evidence in total that he looked at his crotch before playing an hand and had a astoundingly high win rate in streamed games, that contrasted with his results in non streamed games.

This threads legal minds have looked at the above evidence to explore 2, but do not seem to have a consensus on whether or not the evidence is strong enough to show on the balance of probabilities Postle cheated, so it is legitimate for people to make that accusation against him.
Jay Why is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 02:56 AM   #12467
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,538
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
OK, this case boils down to two big questions.

1 What is the evidence against Postle?

2 How strongly does the US law take that evidence into account when deciding if it is fair to say Postle cheated?

This thread has explored 1, and found the evidence in total that he looked at his crotch before playing an hand and had a astoundingly high win rate in streamed games, that contrasted with his results in non streamed games.

This threads legal minds have looked at the above evidence to explore 2, but do not seem to have a consensus on whether or not the evidence is strong enough to show on the balance of probabilities Postle cheated, so it is legitimate for people to make that accusation against him.
https://firstamendmentwatch.org/libe...-sets-standard

Quote:
5. Falsity: Public officials and public figures must prove that the defamatory statement was false. Private persons must prove falsity when the defamatory statement involves a matter of public concern. Minor errors such as wrong dates or places are generally not considered substantial enough themselves to meet this standard of falsity as long as the overall statement is substantially true.

6. Fault: Even false, defamatory statements are protected under the First Amendment unless the plaintiff can also prove that the statements were published with fault. Public officials and public figures must prove a very high level of fault—that the defendant knew it was false and published it anyway (intentional falsehood) or had a high degree of awareness of probable falsehood and published anyway (reckless disregard). By contrast, a private person must prove a lower level of fault that may vary depending on the state, but not less than negligence or carelessness. Given fault requirements, public officials and public figures have a difficult time winning a libel case; private persons, having to prove only careless false statements, have an easier time.
Looks like what you think matters, doesn't actually matter in the US.

Were any of the defendants making intentionally false statements? No.

Did any of the defendants believe they were making probably false statements? No.

Is he a public figure or is it a matter of public concern? That seems to be what will set the bar.
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 11:41 AM   #12468
oliveras19
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 15
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

SUPERIOR COURT OF CALIFORNIA
County of Sacramento
720 Ninth Street, Room 102
Sacramento, CA 95814-1311
PETITIONER.o!'I.AllolilFF: Michael Postle
RESPONDENT/DEFENDANT: Veronica Brill

ORDER RE: DELAY IN SCHEDULING
INITIAL CASE MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE CASE NUMBER:
34-2020-00286265

The Court finds good cause to delay the scheduling of the initial Case Management Conference for this case given the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on court-wide operations. Among the affected operations is the Court's Case Management Program (CMP). The Court's CMP calendars have been and remain suspended until further notice. After the CMP Departments resume operations, the Court will schedule the initial Case Management Conference in this case and issue a Notice of Case Management Conference and Order to Appear.

The deadline for filing and service of the Case Management Conference Statements will be based upon the date for the initial Case Management Conference once it has been scheduled.

Parties shall continue to accomplish service of all parties named in the action.

Parties shall continue to ensure that all defendants and cross-defendants have answered, been dismissed, or had their defaults entered.

Plaintiff shall serve a copy of this order on any party to the complaint. The cross-complainant shall have the same obligation with respect to the cross-complaint


Dated: I0/01/2020

RICHARD K. SUEYOSHI

Richard K. Sueyoshi, Judge of the Superior Court
oliveras19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 11:45 AM   #12469
OFA
old hand
 
OFA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,708
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Joe Ingram has vanished since Postle started legal proceedings. Sad to see so many good people getting ****ed by this
OFA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 11:57 AM   #12470
Wilbury Twist
Pooh-Bah
 
Wilbury Twist's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: 4977 miles from Kells
Posts: 5,331
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by oliveras19 View Post

RICHARD K. SUEYOSHI

Richard K. Sueyoshi, Judge of the Superior Court
A Japanese-American guy in Sacramento? Probably a 30 percent chance one of my parents knows him.

Okay, that number is certainly an exaggeration, but that's how that community is, at least for their generation. I think the internment bonded everyone. My mom was born in the Tule Lake camp. She could meet someone whose sister's college roommate's parents best friends were interned there, and they'll become instant friends.
Wilbury Twist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 01:07 PM   #12471
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,538
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OFA View Post
Joe Ingram has vanished since Postle started legal proceedings. Sad to see so many good people getting ****ed by this
He's been active on twitter for the last few days.
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 01:40 PM   #12472
madlex
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 12,599
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by executiveauto View Post
just lol, he'll never get another game in his life. especially on a live steam or tv. and his rep is that of a cheater, have 100 plus pages on twoplustwo onlne calling him such, plus youtube and other places im sure i do now know about.
Ae you new to poker? Both live and online games are full of known cheaters. Casinos don't really care and therefore don't 86 them and other players don't care too much either.

If Mike Postle walked into the Bellagio poker room today, I'm not even sure if anyone would say a word to him.
madlex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 05:01 PM   #12473
inmyrav
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 1,641
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist View Post
A Japanese-American guy in Sacramento? Probably a 30 percent chance one of my parents knows him.

Okay, that number is certainly an exaggeration, but that's how that community is, at least for their generation. I think the internment bonded everyone. My mom was born in the Tule Lake camp. She could meet someone whose sister's college roommate's parents best friends were interned there, and they'll become instant friends.
That is such a wonderful thing to hear. Thank you for sharing that.
inmyrav is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 05:07 PM   #12474
inmyrav
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 1,641
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by oliveras19 View Post
SUPERIOR COURT OF CALIFORNIA
County of Sacramento
720 Ninth Street, Room 102
Sacramento, CA 95814-1311
PETITIONER.o!'I.AllolilFF: Michael Postle
RESPONDENT/DEFENDANT: Veronica Brill

ORDER RE: DELAY IN SCHEDULING
INITIAL CASE MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE CASE NUMBER:
34-2020-00286265

The Court finds good cause to delay the scheduling
/case got got
/close thread
inmyrav is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2020, 05:33 PM   #12475
blankoblanco
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
blankoblanco's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,410
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreatBigRedOne View Post
How long before this ridiculous myth of impossible win rate is put to bed? You don't calculate standard deviation for 1/3 when your playing 10/25. You don't get to input variance as nitty 500 zoom when your calculating for loose game full of fish. You don't get to exclude rebuys and add ons. The single bit of unconflicted evidence in this case is crotch staring.
Is your standard based on what is impossible? DNA tests are "only" 99 point some amount of additional 9s percent accurate. They still prove guilt in a court of law

Statistically, I'm pretty certain you could break down Mike Postle's play to a similar level. Did you see the graph of his VPIP/winnings that compared him vs. Potripper vs. the rest of the population? All it takes is for someone to see that graph and actually understand enough about poker. Then there are like god knows how many other compounding factors on top of that that make it even more certain he cheated

He's guilty well beyond a reasonable doubt, times about a hundred. Courts (and many in this thread) just likely don't have the understanding to know what that looks like in this situation
blankoblanco is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive