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Old 12-02-2019, 12:30 AM   #9951
zica
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Natamus View Post
Letís be realistic:

No county or State DA in California is going to spend time and tax dollars on Postle when they canít even manage the case loads of all the violent crimes being prosecuted. This is straight civil and everything else is nerds enjoy reading themselves type
I'm not a lawyer but I think, without more evidence than what we've seen on stream there is no chance of a criminal charge, zero, like less than zero but, if they find more evidence and are confident of a conviction they will certainly pursue it despite case loads, etc, because it does threaten tax revenue. If people lose confidence in California casino's the government will lose some business to other states. It may be that few know about this incident now but once investigations are completed, it may get a lot more press and even if it doesn't, the reputation can spread organically and hurt business.
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:35 AM   #9952
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by zica View Post
I'm not a lawyer but I think, without more evidence than what we've seen on stream there is no chance of a criminal charge, zero, like less than zero but, if they find more evidence and are confident of a conviction they will certainly pursue it despite case loads, etc, because it does threaten tax revenue. If people lose confidence in California casino's the government will lose some business to other states. It may be that few know about this incident now but once investigations are completed, it may get a lot more press and even if it doesn't, the reputation can spread organically and hurt business.


I agree with most of what you said and yes some savvy players will just wait til they can go to Vegas to play vs playing in CA. However the most common CA player is a total degen who just plays to play and they will keep gladly filling commerce, Hustler, Bay 101 and the other major rooms and paying their absurd rake to see flops
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Old 12-02-2019, 04:51 AM   #9953
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

erry1 Please stop paying dividends to troll posts.
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Old 12-02-2019, 05:14 AM   #9954
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I agree that it is unlikely there will be criminal prosecution. However, the civil case is not just going to be based on how Postle played hands. I am sure a big part of the defense will be to try to confuse jurors who don't understand poker. However, it is really unlikely Stones will not settle the case thinking it can win at trial.
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Old 12-02-2019, 06:24 AM   #9955
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Arguing with someone who thinks Postle is innocent is an act of total futility, as if they can't already clearly see his guilt for themself, their judgment is so poor their opinion is worthless, so that convincing them of his guilt isn't worthwhile, as even if they then agree he is guilty, their opinion is worthless.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:05 AM   #9956
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
Arguing with someone who thinks Postle is innocent is an act of total futility, as if they can't already clearly see his guilt for themself, their judgment is so poor their opinion is worthless, so that convincing them of his guilt isn't worthwhile, as even if they then agree he is guilty, their opinion is worthless.


I donít think anyone (that I can tell) thinks he is completely innocent.

The debatable part is if he would even be find guilty based only on statistical evidence and professional poker testimony. Too many unanswered questions from his odd playing style, lack of concrete evidence and no corroborating witnesses.

Given the public info alone, I donít think there is a chance he goes to jail or even is found guilty civilly. Iíll wager on it. Too many way to cast doubt. And itís not like he stole from retired Grandmas. Probably not that much sympathy for degenerate poker players.

And he isnít the prize anyway. He is worthless. Itís the casino they are after. A jury may not like a big, bad company and believe they failed in their duty to properly investigate.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:09 AM   #9957
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by rtd353 View Post
This is live at the bike. Looks like a low stakes game. You'd have to be really stupid to cheat while you are on a poker tv show.
been taking a trip down memory lane and found this gem from 2016 https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...erica-1591640/
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:17 AM   #9958
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

https://youtu.be/JOew5mNY9XY?t=14694

lol! this is from the 10/19/18 stream. still with a year of these shenanigans yet to come
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:43 AM   #9959
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Jay Why View Post
Arguing with someone who thinks Postle is innocent is an act of total futility, as if they can't already clearly see his guilt for themself, their judgment is so poor their opinion is worthless, so that convincing them of his guilt isn't worthwhile, as even if they then agree he is guilty, their opinion is worthless.
Please educate us on the facts that prove clearly and convincingly (a middle of the road standard of proof) that Postle is "guilty" of cheating so that we can all agree with your worthwhile opinion.
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Old 12-02-2019, 11:16 AM   #9960
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Please educate us on the facts that prove clearly and convincingly (a middle of the road standard of proof) that Postle is "guilty" of cheating so that we can all agree with your worthwhile opinion.
Try typing in "youtube" and then "Postle poker"
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Old 12-02-2019, 11:42 AM   #9961
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
I think the 54 hand is more supportive that he is a wild player than a cheater. Why would you play a preflop game when you know the other players hole cards?
He called off with 5 high, knowing the player behind would call and give him pot odds of 3 to 1 with a 40% chance of winning. He knew he was obviously behind with 5 high but somehow ended up against the only combo of hands that two good players get all in pre 3 ways that his 5 high is + EV against. 99+% of the time heís at best 20% to win in that spot but no, the time he actually did it heís 40% to 3 x his stack.
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Old 12-02-2019, 11:59 AM   #9962
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Anonnumba View Post
He called off with 5 high, knowing the player behind would call and give him pot odds of 3 to 1 with a 40% chance of winning. He knew he was obviously behind with 5 high but somehow ended up against the only combo of hands that two good players get all in pre 3 ways that his 5 high is + EV against. 99+% of the time heís at best 20% to win in that spot but no, the time he actually did it heís 40% to 3 x his stack.
What were stack sizes? Obv. Postle is a cheat but my only hesitation with this play is what prevents the last player to act with AK to shove it in? Then what .. I mean you still have 5 high and need to hit. Even being able to see everyone cards it's stupid play imo
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:49 PM   #9963
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
What were stack sizes? Obv. Postle is a cheat but my only hesitation with this play is what prevents the last player to act with AK to shove it in? Then what .. I mean you still have 5 high and need to hit. Even being able to see everyone cards it's stupid play imo
3k, 4K and Postle on 7k+. IIRC it was Postle button raise, moneymaker small blind 3 bet, big blind shoves, Postle calls, moneymaker calls.

If it helps your thinking the last to call with AK will be thinking he has to hit against potentially 10 10 and QQ having a win percentage of 36% in a 3 way pot. Yet this joker manages to find 40% 3 ways with 5 4? No...
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:54 PM   #9964
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Lawyer here. The civil case is 99.9% likely to result in a confidential settlement agreement. Not a question of if, but when that will happen. I would expect Stones to pay most of it, mainly to protect its reputation. Sadly, that means we will never learn much if anything that is uncovered in discovery.
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Old 12-02-2019, 02:06 PM   #9965
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Also, I am too lazy to figure out where this case is venued, but it should be fairly easy to keep tabs on how the case is developing through the state court website or through PACER for federal courts.
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Old 12-02-2019, 02:18 PM   #9966
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by HensonLosesLots View Post
What were stack sizes? Obv. Postle is a cheat but my only hesitation with this play is what prevents the last player to act with AK to shove it in? Then what .. I mean you still have 5 high and need to hit. Even being able to see everyone cards it's stupid play imo

I think it has been determined that this play is +EV and he made the correct call.

There are other situations where though where he played -EV cards.

Reasons:
A) He thought he could outplay them on later streets
B) He was disguising his play by intentionally losing hands
C) He was told to play loose
D) He made mistakes
E) He wasnít receiving the correct info

He clearly did something. This is where the casino failed because they didnít do an investigation while in progress considering the reports and suspicious play. He could (and should) have been caught red-handed along with any confederates.

Now though, the casino is in the awkward position of having to defend someone who obviously manipulated the game (even if not to the maximum potential possible). A jury wonít feel bad about punishing a business, especially one whose business is taking money.
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Old 12-02-2019, 03:29 PM   #9967
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
There was a two month period starting on May 5, 2019 where he went:
+800
+1400
+1300
-5700
-200
+500
+4,200
+400
-200

How is this God-mode? The average buy-in is ~$2k. I would think God would make far more money than this. There are many long sessions where he barely makes money.

He was told to play loose for the cameras. He said so himself.

I definitely agree though that there is something going on.

I think Iíve been trolled.

This was a made-for-TV event that got of control. Like the movie Quiz Show with the Game 21. History repeats.

They were setting it up with this guy as the perennial winner like Charlie Van Doren. Feeding him what to do. Make it entertaining but still win. And of course you want it close. AK-AK-54 is awesome tv. That is absolutely the ďgoĒ button. It isnít a +EV calculator at the table. It translates into viewers and a story. The local pro takes on the WSOP champ.

THIS WASNíT A NORMAL POKER GAME. It is being recorded. There are commentators. People were wearing costumes one day. There was a lady doing a disco dance after winning a hand. I felt like I was watching the Price is Right.

This was a fix more than a fraud. He didnít destroy the games. He certainly didnít use God-mode to his full advantage. He played a style that was going to attract audiences.

And yes, he was given some info to win hands. Or he would have gotten destroyed. Just enough on those critical hands.

Prove me wrong that this was God-mode or a Superuser trying to take as much money as possible. He is a very experienced player. Top 1% of 1%. Elite. He would annihilate rookies if he knew their hole cards. Crushed them.

He didnít.

He played along with them. He didnít win that much money. Just enough. Toyed with them.

This was Entertainment-mode+. Made for the cameras.
This is the most interesting and viable alternative to the current narrative.
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Old 12-02-2019, 03:34 PM   #9968
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by 5050 View Post
This is the most interesting and viable alternative to the current narrative.


Be careful. You are called a troll if you interfere with the narrative that he was a massive cheat.

He was a MASSIVE manipulator and a mini-cheat.
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Old 12-02-2019, 03:45 PM   #9969
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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He was a MASSIVE manipulator and a mini-cheat.
This characterization makes it sound like you believe he would have gotten the vast majority of winnings without knowing his opponents hole cards. Is that what you're saying by "mini-cheat"? He could have had most of that win rate but decided to cheat (and risk losing that ongoing windfall) to just bump it up a little?

And your premise for his motivation to do that is what again? That he did it as a favor to Stones to be able to play in those juicy games?

And no, you're labeled a troll when you conclude things like the thread only has shown evidence that is statistics based, which is only one small element of one part of the evidence provided.
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Old 12-02-2019, 04:15 PM   #9970
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Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
This characterization makes it sound like you believe he would have gotten the vast majority of winnings without knowing his opponents hole cards. Is that what you're saying by "mini-cheat"? He could have had most of that win rate but decided to cheat (and risk losing that ongoing windfall) to just bump it up a little?
Yes, he would have won somewhat in the same range. He is an experienced pro that is used to playing in front of the cameras vs. a bunch of fish. His sessions would be far different but he would definitely be the biggest winner.

Quote:
And your premise for his motivation to do that is what again? That he did it as a favor to Stones to be able to play in those juicy games?
Mutual. They may have paid him like a prop. He took a lot of risk with his playing style and he was lucky he was playing against bad players with his playing style.

Quote:
And no, you're labeled a troll when you conclude things like the thread only has shown evidence that is statistics based, which is only one small element of one part of the evidence provided.

The way he played hands and the statistics do not add up to a person who is solely interested in maximizing profit. It shows an elite poker player that took unnecessary risk for also a lower return.
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Old 12-02-2019, 04:22 PM   #9971
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by hardinthepaint View Post
Lawyer here. The civil case is 99.9% likely to result in a confidential settlement agreement. Not a question of if, but when that will happen. I would expect Stones to pay most of it, mainly to protect its reputation. Sadly, that means we will never learn much if anything that is uncovered in discovery.
I would assume Stones does not want anything made public. I don't know why people are assuming they don't have additional technical and eye witness evidence.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hardinthepaint View Post
Also, I am too lazy to figure out where this case is venued, but it should be fairly easy to keep tabs on how the case is developing through the state court website or through PACER for federal courts.
They made a federal case of it.
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Old 12-02-2019, 04:44 PM   #9972
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Yes, he would have won somewhat in the same range.
OK. Thanks. I don't know why it took me this long to confirm to myself that you should not be taken at all seriously, but this does it.

To make clear to others: golfnutt has concluded that Mike Postle did in fact cheat but he would have won an amount in the same range even if he did not see the hole cards of the other players.

I won't be reading your posts anymore. Carry on.
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Old 12-02-2019, 04:53 PM   #9973
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

This thread seems constantly infected by trolls defending Postle. Perhaps someone has an interest in confusing the issue.
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Old 12-02-2019, 04:58 PM   #9974
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by golfnutt View Post
Yes, he would have won somewhat in the same range. He is an experienced pro that is used to playing in front of the cameras vs. a bunch of fish. His sessions would be far different but he would definitely be the biggest winner.

Mutual. They may have paid him like a prop. He took a lot of risk with his playing style and he was lucky he was playing against bad players with his playing style.




The way he played hands and the statistics do not add up to a person who is solely interested in maximizing profit. It shows an elite poker player that took unnecessary risk for also a lower return.
He took a risk playing this style ?

Did I miss something ? He played this style because he knew what cards everyone had and knew when they missed a flop he could bet them off. Or if had kk and a flopped could bet them off.

Are you trying to say he should of played tighter even though he knew what cards everyone had ?
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Old 12-02-2019, 05:19 PM   #9975
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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I'm laying 8/5 Postle never sees a courtroom.
He, or his lawyers, will be in the courtroom many times for pre-trial motions. You should rephrase this that it won't go to trial/summary judgment.
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