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Old 09-21-2020, 05:38 PM   #11601
pollywog1
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I think I saw Justin tweet that he was taking bets on the accuracy of Postle's money won. He seems pretty confident it's more than 100k off, so if anyone were so inclined, I would highly advise taking the under.

I also highly advise escrow, for... reasons.
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:49 PM   #11602
Dreamer
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by pollywog1 View Post
I think I saw Justin tweet that he was taking bets on the accuracy of Postle's money won. He seems pretty confident it's more than 100k off, so if anyone were so inclined, I would highly advise taking the under.

I also highly advise escrow, for... reasons.
Maybe Mike screwed Justin (out of his cut) and he really thinks he won less than he did?
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:52 PM   #11603
persianpunisher
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The exact amount he won is completely irrelevant to the fact that he cheated. Idk why people are focusing in on that.
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Old 09-21-2020, 06:25 PM   #11604
Mr Spyutastic
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by persianpunisher View Post
The exact amount he won is completely irrelevant to the fact that he cheated. Idk why people are focusing in on that.
Yeah it definitely shouldn't be the focus for sure. People are commenting though because that's the thing JFK keeps harping on because it's the only thing he has any hope to grasp on to.

But yeah there are plenty of hands where he cheated, but still lost the hand. He just lost much less $ than a non-cheater would've.

For some reason this seems to be lost on people like JFK and the few other supporters they have.
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Old 09-21-2020, 06:42 PM   #11605
MJ_Syd_Aus
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

When somebody breaks into a bank, upon scoping the bank floor the first thing they do is ascertain: "Who's the manager running this joint?" Well, MP found his manager - Justin. Something tells me (Twitter to be precise) Justin is such a potato, MP's first thought was: "Sheez, look at that guy. I can work around him."

MP probably had help with the tech - just not sure Justin is crafty enough (or criminal) to be involved with it.

So, here's Justin, who's running this room. This stream. Yet here's what seems to be the case based on what we know:

1) Internal security was poor;
2) Tech protocols were not followed;
3) He built a regular grinder into a "God" on stream;
4) RFID irregularities were present;
5) He brought in pros, and they were cheated;
6) He shook hands with Sacramento regs, and their hard earned money was cheated;
7) Veronica was treated poorly;
8) He performed an "investigation", but nobody knows what was investigated; and
9) The very spirit of the game (and therefore entire poker room) was a complete mirage under his watch.

(and more)

And instead of answering questions from Wired, he uses a one-way platform (Twitter) to blast off like a teenager. I think he's defending himself / throwing "Stones" as less co-conspirator, more "I failed #1-9 above, but I will defend myself to the end."

What's next? Who knows. I think this is all just gossip / entertainment until Phil Galfond's research sparks the next round(s) of debate.

I wonder what the vibe is at Stones these days, is Justin walking around there working as normal? I wouldn't spend a dollar there on the tables unless it was stacked with discounted Buffalo Wings and a few beers for Monday Night Football.
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:12 PM   #11606
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Hi Kilowatt:

I agree completely. It's shameful, and I'm sure you'll agree, when people write things about others which are not true and are designed to make someone look bad. For example. here's a post that was written about me (and the foundation my wife and I have) on another web site:

Honestly I thought the $270k figure he dropped was very un-Mason-like.

Mason is known to be an extremely selfish and greedy person. That's why he did outrageous things such as restrict strategy discussions on 2+2 because he was afraid people wouldn't buy his books if they could discuss strategy for free (seriously).

He's also obsessed with "spam" and doesn't allow anyone to link anything to their own site, no matter how relevant their material is to the discussion. Even if your site broke the story being discussed on 2+2, you can't link to it.

He is a hard-ass who only cares about himself, which is why I was shocked at the claim that he handed out $270k to charity.

Tennis lessons are a very strange thing to give away for "charity", as well. Do you know of any impoverished kids whose dream it is to play tennis? No. What's next? Golf and polo for poor kids?

I am assuming there has to be some angle to this. If there isn't, LOL @ wasting $270k on charity tennis lessons, when you could be using that money to feed and clothe the poor.


By my count it contains six false statements, and for those interested, it's Post #8 in this thread:

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ason+Charmaine

Best wishes,
Mason
I think you should take any personal gripes with me from 4+ years ago and discuss them privately, rather than hijack important threads on your own site with such nonsense.
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:13 PM   #11607
Mason Malmuth
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
I think Phil Galfond and Bart Hanson have the correct approach.

You statistically analyze his actions.

If he shoved 50 times into a weak range and never into strong hands....
That would be almost statistically impossible.

If he shoved/raised 100% of chopped hands then its pretty clear also.

If he folds or only calls against a strong range with a strong hand....

I watched Bart Hanson's recent analysis video and one thing that struck me
from the 54o hand..... I don't know if Mike is smart enough to know the equities in that spot.
He doesn't strike me as a math guy.
I wonder if there was outside help plugging in the numbers, telling him what to do in various spots?

I would analyze if he made many equity mistakes, especially close decisions.
Hi Dreamer:

Let me use your post to make a couple of comments.

While people such as Phil Galfond and Bart Hansen are certainly highly capable, convincing poker players who understand how poker is played is a lot different than convincing people on a jury, who at best know little about poker, that there was a problem here. That is this should be a much tougher nut to crack. The question will be whether Galfond (or Hansen) can break things down to a simple enough level that non-poker players will understand what actually happened. In my opinion this is a tough task and while someone like Phil is certainly very capable, it won't be easy.

Also, the idea that Postle made plays several standard deviations out is probably the wrong approach. All Postle has to say, given all these poker shows, is that someone has to be the luckiest. If this last statement isn't true, then every major lottery winner should go to jail.

So, what needs to be shown is not that he was x number of standard deviations away from the mean but that his results are somehow beyond what a very lucky person would show. And this is where a Phil Galfond type person can come in. Now, instead of looking at how unlikely a certain event was from a probability standpoint, he might be able to show illogical patterns in how the hands were played in many places. Again, this will be much more difficult to do and the explanation would need to be clear to non-poker players.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:19 PM   #11608
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I’m at the point now where I just want to see Galfond destroy Justin in all conceivable ways. Just wreck that clown.
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:22 PM   #11609
Mason Malmuth
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kilowatt View Post
I think you should take any personal gripes with me from 4+ years ago and discuss them privately, rather than hijack important threads on your own site with such nonsense.
But you put yourself in the middle of this as someone who can be relied upon. Don't you think that people, perhaps someone like Veronica/angry-polak, should know a little more about you.

Perhaps I should put up some more links to your website.

MM
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:23 PM   #11610
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I think the easiest analogy(which I have used several times to explain to people who don't play poker) is that of chess.

Imagine some guy you've kind of seen around on the chess scene for years floating at like a 1400-1600 rating overnight starts winning tournaments that are held at a certain venue. Before each decision he looks into his lap.(What's in his lap is a mystery.)

He goes on to win every tournament in the next 3 months beating all comers even several highly ranked GMs. Often times taking unorthodox lines that no human expert would think to use. He is never able to replicate these results in any other setting.

When asked to break down his lines and thinking at several points in various games his answers remain vague and demonstrate he has not the slightest deep knowledge of the game.

However he maintains his innocence and cries out that there's no proof he cheated and people are just jealous, since no one can prove how he cheated. Several players of the chess community took him to court and the case was thrown out on some technicality with the evidence never having been reviewed.

The tournament director and the chess "master" do victory dances saying there was no cheating because the courts said so. Instead of continuing to play and prove the doubters wrong, the chess "master" decides to quit the game forever.

Last edited by Mr Spyutastic; 09-21-2020 at 07:31 PM.
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Old 09-21-2020, 07:34 PM   #11611
AKyouwin
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I personally feel that JFK is so adamantly claiming the numbers are 100k off is because that is what Postle told him, and he's just working out Postles win by multiplying his cut.

Obv Postle saw a way to scam this complete idiot. Claim you had to rebuy/addon a couple of times as JFK will have been doing his regular work and unable to see the stream/game every minute. Quickly adds up.
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Old 09-21-2020, 08:13 PM   #11612
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by AKyouwin View Post
I personally feel that JFK is so adamantly claiming the numbers are 100k off is because that is what Postle told him, and he's just working out Postles win by multiplying his cut.

Obv Postle saw a way to scam this complete idiot. Claim you had to rebuy/addon a couple of times as JFK will have been doing his regular work and unable to see the stream/game every minute. Quickly adds up.

There does seem to be some confusion over the numbers. This is the only part where JFK may have a point. We should know within reason what he won.
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:08 PM   #11613
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by Eponymous View Post
Very much worth a read. Thank you for linking to it.

Here's a Tweet by Brendan I. Koerner, who wrote the article.

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Old 09-21-2020, 09:22 PM   #11614
pocket_zeros
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Hi Dreamer:

Let me use your post to make a couple of comments.

While people such as Phil Galfond and Bart Hansen are certainly highly capable, convincing poker players who understand how poker is played is a lot different than convincing people on a jury, who at best know little about poker, that there was a problem here. That is this should be a much tougher nut to crack. The question will be whether Galfond (or Hansen) can break things down to a simple enough level that non-poker players will understand what actually happened. In my opinion this is a tough task and while someone like Phil is certainly very capable, it won't be easy.

Also, the idea that Postle made plays several standard deviations out is probably the wrong approach. All Postle has to say, given all these poker shows, is that someone has to be the luckiest. If this last statement isn't true, then every major lottery winner should go to jail.

So, what needs to be shown is not that he was x number of standard deviations away from the mean but that his results are somehow beyond what a very lucky person would show. And this is where a Phil Galfond type person can come in. Now, instead of looking at how unlikely a certain event was from a probability standpoint, he might be able to show illogical patterns in how the hands were played in many places. Again, this will be much more difficult to do and the explanation would need to be clear to non-poker players.

Best wishes,
Mason
There's a much easier way to reason with a layman about why Postle must have been cheating - the simple fact he only played in the livestream game rather than taking his supposed talents elsewhere to fully utilize his money-making potential. Ask them if they had the ability to print their own money if they would choose to print pennies instead of $100 bills. And then ask them if given the choice they would choose to print those pennies on a national live stream vs in a more private setting where others wouldn't have the opportunity to discover what you're doing.
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:39 PM   #11615
Mason Malmuth
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by pocket_zeros View Post
There's a much easier way to reason with a layman about why Postle must have been cheating - the simple fact he only played in the livestream game rather than taking his supposed talents elsewhere to fully utilize his money-making potential. Ask them if they had the ability to print their own money if they would choose to print pennies instead of $100 bills. And then ask them if given the choice they would choose to print those pennies on a national live stream vs in a more private setting where others wouldn't have the opportunity to discover what you're doing.
Hi pocket:

I don’t agree. I think players at higher stakes would quickly pick up that something was wrong.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:52 PM   #11616
pocket_zeros
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Hi pocket:

I don’t agree. I think players at higher stakes would quickly pick up that something was wrong.

Best wishes,
Mason
Hi Mason,

That was the point of the second question - why would he choose to do this on a live stream where his actions could be discovered unless had to, ie he only had access to the hole cards on the livestream, which is why that's the only place he chose to play.
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:53 PM   #11617
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

The fellas he played against were dupes. They deserved what they got.
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:58 PM   #11618
Ataman
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Hi pocket:

I don’t agree. I think players at higher stakes would quickly pick up that something was wrong.

Best wishes,
Mason
Berkey didn’t, and he plays high stakes. Sure he’s a fish, but he plays those stakes.
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Old 09-21-2020, 10:36 PM   #11619
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Wow, that Kevin Racks video...

It still makes me laugh (in a sad clown sort of way) that the collective criticisms of the work done by Joey, Doug, Andreas, et al are that they "cherry-picked" hands to make Postle look guilty. And to show this, JFK and RounderLife cherry-pick hands that make him look innocent.

There was a made-for-TV HBO movie about the early years of the AIDS epidemic called And The Band Played On in which the characters categorized information into two subgroups: "things we think but don't know," and "things we know, but can't prove." They were pivotal descriptions governing the scientists' collective ability to convince the public and/or enact legislation.

I often think about those designations in areas that have nothing to do with that film (the current COVID pandemic providing ample opportunities). This Postle saga is precisely one of those areas, particularly when it comes to "know but can't prove."

Even if Galfond (or Bart Hanson or anyone else) meticulously logged every single hand, every single transaction for every single session, the toughest hurdle – whether in the court of law or the court of public opinion – is satisfying those who are not poker-savvy enough to understand what is being presented.

Breaking it down into probabilities – e.g. the chances of a player achieving this is 1 in [insert large number] - merely turns into preaching to the choir. Someone will inevitably use as a defense a strange occurrence that is equally improbable, like the various people who have won multiple lotteries or the crazy case of former park ranger Roy Sullivan. The people who take a Lloyd Christmas "so you're saying there's a chance" approach will never be convinced.

Anyway, talk about preaching to the choir... I'm doing that myself with this very post. Just frustrating. It's as if someone used the "Ask The Audience" lifeline on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, 99.8 percent of the audience selected A but the contestant opted for D. Only in this case, the question is "Did Mike Postle cheat," the audience consists solely of experienced poker players, and the four choices are "A) Definitely, B) Probably, C) Probably Not and D) I'm An Assclown."
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Old 09-21-2020, 10:38 PM   #11620
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataman View Post
Berkey didn’t, and he plays high stakes. Sure he’s a fish, but he plays those stakes.
What's interesting about that stream is that he doesn't start cheating until a little past halfway through it.
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Old 09-21-2020, 10:42 PM   #11621
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Hi Dreamer:

Let me use your post to make a couple of comments.

While people such as Phil Galfond and Bart Hansen are certainly highly capable, convincing poker players who understand how poker is played is a lot different than convincing people on a jury, who at best know little about poker, that there was a problem here. That is this should be a much tougher nut to crack. The question will be whether Galfond (or Hansen) can break things down to a simple enough level that non-poker players will understand what actually happened. In my opinion this is a tough task and while someone like Phil is certainly very capable, it won't be easy.

Also, the idea that Postle made plays several standard deviations out is probably the wrong approach. All Postle has to say, given all these poker shows, is that someone has to be the luckiest. If this last statement isn't true, then every major lottery winner should go to jail.

So, what needs to be shown is not that he was x number of standard deviations away from the mean but that his results are somehow beyond what a very lucky person would show. And this is where a Phil Galfond type person can come in. Now, instead of looking at how unlikely a certain event was from a probability standpoint, he might be able to show illogical patterns in how the hands were played in many places. Again, this will be much more difficult to do and the explanation would need to be clear to non-poker players.

Best wishes,
Mason
Hi Mason, I totally agree with everything you just said, In fact I said the very same things much earlier in the thread.
I don't think we are at the point of convincing a jury. That ship has sailed.

We need to show the poker community that these people cheated and that any future players or casinos who think about working with these people have the correct evidence to show they are untrustworthy at the very least.
Its clear people in this scenario are brazen.
The smart thing for them to do would have been to walk away quietly.

It has to be clear that cheating has consequences even if all it does is warn others not to do business with such people in the future.
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Old 09-22-2020, 12:02 AM   #11622
MicroDonkYT
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic View Post
Yeah if I was him and really innocent and that good, I would try to get back on stream and crush as soon as possible. Best player ever, but decided to quit instead of proving everyone wrong while making money. Makes total sense.
Yeah, his story is compelling. Best poker player on the face of the planet playing 1/3 and 2/5 in a random casino in Norcal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
Its so bizarre that instead of Justin saying he didn't know what was going on he is spending vast resources trying to "prove" Postle was innocent.

Whoever told you this was a good idea is an idiot.

Its just going to make people angry who will then work harder to find stuff against you.

Well done you.

Low IQ. Obviously, his alcoholism pickled his brain.
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Old 09-22-2020, 02:34 AM   #11623
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
But you put yourself in the middle of this as someone who can be relied upon. Don't you think that people, perhaps someone like Veronica/angry-polak, should know a little more about you.

Perhaps I should put up some more links to your website.

MM
Hard to believe you're around 70 years old and still act like this.

What is wrong with you?

We are trying to deal with a cheating scandal here, and nobody has time for the petty grudges of a bitter curmudgeon.

Please stop hijacking this thread with nonsense.
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Old 09-22-2020, 03:17 AM   #11624
OldManDecaf
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

^^

You appear to be getting the worst of this. He has merely indicated with some supporting evidence that you appear to be a hypocrite.

Now you are just throwing insults back.

And also, in attempting to have the last word, amplifying the derail.

Just ignore and move on...then the derail ends.

Last edited by OldManDecaf; 09-22-2020 at 03:39 AM.
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Old 09-22-2020, 03:49 AM   #11625
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Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

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Originally Posted by persianpunisher View Post
The exact amount he won is completely irrelevant to the fact that he cheated. Idk why people are focusing in on that.
Because its relevant to how many standard deviations from the mean his results were.
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