Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

News, Views, and Gossip For poker news, views and gossip.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-01-2020, 11:36 PM   #11351
Badreg2017
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,900
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Are people still seriously debating if he cheated? He had double the winrate of someone who could literally see his opponent’s hole cards. He was making 1000 bb/100 pot ripper was making 500bb/100.

The winrate was always very suspicious, but I didn’t realize how suspicious it was until I had the opportunity recently to play in what had to be one of the softest regularly running games in the U.S. Two guys with deep pockets would regularly raise blind and just play awful post flop. There was only one other competent pro in the lineup. The minimum buy in for the game was 200 bb’s so it was deep as well. I made around 200bb/100 in that game over a sample of around 10k hands. I’m not the greatest pro in the world, but lifetime I’m over 10 bb/hr at 2/5 and over 10bb/100 at 50-100NL so I’m at least competent. The idea that he could beat his game for 1000bb/100 without cheating is absurd.

I put it in a poker variance calculator. Even if we use a standard deviation of 200, and even if he’s way way way better than me and could make 400bb/100, the odds of winning 1000bb/100 is 0.000%. It can’t happen. No one is making that much without cheating.

The lines he took would also be absolutely horrendous in a lot of cases if he didn’t know his opponents hold cards. He plays like an absolute fish half the time. Some of the lines I take in live poker would admittedly look fishy but I’m doing them as an exploit. I’m not the GTO police, I understand why people might take weird lines, but his ridiculous lines were just straight up spew.

Has anyone even found a hand yet where he made one of his ridiculous spew bluffs when his opponent was super nutted? I don’t care how good he is at live reads, even if he’s the ****ing GOAT, the second best player in the world bluffs into the nuts all the time. He’s not 10x better than the best player in the world.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 08-01-2020 at 11:52 PM.
Badreg2017 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2020, 11:52 PM   #11352
Eeyorefora
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,855
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjb511 View Post
Kharma.
More like his Carma hit a Dogma, amirite?

Sent from my LM-V600 using Tapatalk
Eeyorefora is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2020, 11:30 AM   #11353
TimM
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TimM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 9,540
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Are people still seriously debating if he cheated? He had double the winrate of someone who could literally see his opponent’s hole cards. He was making 1000 bb/100 pot ripper was making 500bb/100.

The winrate was always very suspicious, but I didn’t realize how suspicious it was until I had the opportunity recently to play in what had to be one of the softest regularly running games in the U.S. Two guys with deep pockets would regularly raise blind and just play awful post flop. There was only one other competent pro in the lineup. The minimum buy in for the game was 200 bb’s so it was deep as well. I made around 200bb/100 in that game over a sample of around 10k hands. I’m not the greatest pro in the world, but lifetime I’m over 10 bb/hr at 2/5 and over 10bb/100 at 50-100NL so I’m at least competent. The idea that he could beat his game for 1000bb/100 without cheating is absurd.

I put it in a poker variance calculator. Even if we use a standard deviation of 200, and even if he’s way way way better than me and could make 400bb/100, the odds of winning 1000bb/100 is 0.000%. It can’t happen. No one is making that much without cheating.

The lines he took would also be absolutely horrendous in a lot of cases if he didn’t know his opponents hold cards. He plays like an absolute fish half the time. Some of the lines I take in live poker would admittedly look fishy but I’m doing them as an exploit. I’m not the GTO police, I understand why people might take weird lines, but his ridiculous lines were just straight up spew.

Has anyone even found a hand yet where he made one of his ridiculous spew bluffs when his opponent was super nutted? I don’t care how good he is at live reads, even if he’s the ****ing GOAT, the second best player in the world bluffs into the nuts all the time. He’s not 10x better than the best player in the world.
The people still debating if he cheated are not swayed by such logic. They essentially argue that any statistical analysis cannot completely exclude the possibility of chance producing his results, even if that possibility can be shown to be arbitrarily small. They argue that he wasn't so much on a heater with his cards, but instead with his decisions, either always guessing right about the strength of his opponent's hand by pure chance, or by sick soul reads, or both. That is, if you're really good at hand reading, but not perfect, it just takes a little luck to get them all correct.

Also most or all of the statistical analysis in this thread, including yours above, is not terribly rigorous. This may be because we don't have all the data in an easy format. For example, what was the sample size used to determine Mike's win rate? So there is work that can be done here for the mathematically inclined, but I don't think it's needed. What convinces me is the coincidence between the godlike play and the suspicious behavior, as well as the absence of godlike play when the suspicious behavior is not there.
TimM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2020, 12:16 PM   #11354
Badreg2017
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,900
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

I strongly disagree with them, but I guess if he didn’t play his hands in a ridiculous manner it might have merit. And that’s what initially convinced me and what I mentioned at the bottom of my wall of text. For all of the ridiculous spew lines he takes, why is it always against the middle or bottom of people’s ranges? He literally never from what I’ve seen punts into the nuts or effective nuts. Why is it so hard to find someone with a like 80% VPIP making the occasional bluffing mistake or incorrect hero call? I think I saw like one hand where he had like second nuts vs nuts where he called incorrectly called a normal bet size because it probably would’ve looked way too ridiculous to fold. His play is also really nonsensical and inconsistent. His play is perfectly correlated with his opponent’s hole cards as opposed to any kind of general exploit or strategy.

I’ve played thousands of hours of live poker, including some T/20 so I’m playing with the occasional good player and it’s rare to even see someone in one session make all the right decisions like Postle does. I’ve never seen anyone do it on any kind of consistent basis where they just get every bluff through and never call down incorrectly

His play wouldn’t make him the Michael Jordan of poker, he wouldn’t just be the GOAT. He’s playing on the level of if Wilt Chamberlain has Steph Curry’s shooting and free throw ability. This would be the most dominant I’ve seen any human be at any activity.

800 bb/hr would also be like $1300/hr at 2/5 which helps put it into context. How many people here have ever even had an 8 hour 10k 2/5 session? I’ve seen it done a few times but it’s pretty damn rare. Imagine doing that every day.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 08-02-2020 at 12:32 PM.
Badreg2017 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 01:26 AM   #11355
CheckCheckFold
old hand
 
CheckCheckFold's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 1,579
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

What's the latest update on this?
Has his money been confiscated? Is he in jail yet?
CheckCheckFold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 03:29 AM   #11356
chopstick
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
chopstick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: where the weather suits my clothes
Posts: 9,156
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Yes, they took all his money and put him in jail.

Veronica owns Stones now. MacLaw is celebrating their $30m victory. Marle's suit is still ongoing.
chopstick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 03:43 AM   #11357
Tuma
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Tuma's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: maybe today
Posts: 15,041
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Tbh, Mac's tweeting kinda wore on me.
Tuma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 02:37 PM   #11358
TPeck
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 272
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckCheckFold View Post
What's the latest update on this?
Has his money been confiscated? Is he in jail yet?
Same thing that happened to every other poker player who did something scummy over the years.
TPeck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 02:41 PM   #11359
Mr Spyutastic
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Mr Spyutastic's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 12,219
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TPeck View Post
Same thing that happened to every other poker player who did something scummy over the years.
He got staked for a $10k tourney and won it?
Mr Spyutastic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 12:53 PM   #11360
that_pope
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
that_pope's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: At Casino AZ Again
Posts: 31,797
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

that_pope is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 01:10 PM   #11361
persianpunisher
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 2,421
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope View Post
Was she his wife during the scandal!?!?
persianpunisher is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 01:50 PM   #11362
Alpha Fish
Pooh-Bah
 
Alpha Fish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,515
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

obv she was

now the gravy train stopped rolling and she wants 50% of that sweet scam money she's hoping is hidden somewhere
Alpha Fish is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 03:48 PM   #11363
pokerashich
centurion
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 118
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by persianpunisher View Post
Was she his wife during the scandal!?!?
No. He had to stay in California because of her otherwise he would've been in Vegas crushing the biggest games there.

Sent from my SM-A205YN using Tapatalk
pokerashich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 04:11 PM   #11364
ejames209
adept
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: 6bet me's no. 1 fan's no. 1 fan
Posts: 1,174
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckCheckFold View Post
What's the latest update on this?
Has his money been confiscated? Is he in jail yet?
Can't say specifics. All I say is if you knew, you'd be sorely disappointed.
ejames209 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 04:17 PM   #11365
Trixie2
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Vegas Baby
Posts: 423
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

This should all be a matter of public record IF it goes to court. (and that is a BIG IF) As there are no minors involved nothing should be sealed by the courts.

But chances of this seeing the inside of a courtroom are about 10%
Trixie2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 04:33 PM   #11366
jjjou812
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 3,580
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

No, it’s been sealed by the court along with the Epstein stuff. But stay on top of this thing if it goes to court!
jjjou812 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2020, 06:30 AM   #11367
noon
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 758
Re: Mike Postle cheating settlement

Is this a 'big deal' or a 'meh' ?

Quote:
Settlement Reached In Court Case Surrounding Mike Postle Poker Cheating Allegations
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-new...ng-allegations
noon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 10:42 AM   #11368
Trixie2
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Vegas Baby
Posts: 423
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

So Mike is paying all legal fees and agreeing not to play at stones ever again apparently.

Way more than I thought would happen.
Trixie2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 10:50 AM   #11369
AngusThermopyle
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AngusThermopyle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: 乱
Posts: 14,926
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trixie2 View Post
So Mike is paying all legal fees and agreeing not to play at stones ever again apparently.

Source?
AngusThermopyle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 11:23 AM   #11370
AngusThermopyle
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
AngusThermopyle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: 乱
Posts: 14,926
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

And Marle Cordeiro's lawsuit against Postle filed by VerStandig in Nevada has been thrown out for lack of jurisdiction.


Article
AngusThermopyle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 11:51 AM   #11371
PLIKITYPLAK
veteran
 
PLIKITYPLAK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,512
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by AngusThermopyle View Post
And Marle Cordeiro's lawsuit against Postle filed by VerStandig in Nevada has been thrown out for lack of jurisdiction.


Article
Dang, not much is going good for Marbles.
PLIKITYPLAK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2020, 08:23 PM   #11372
Wilbury Twist
Pooh-Bah
 
Wilbury Twist's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: 4977 miles from Kells
Posts: 5,333
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope View Post

Ah, so THAT'S why this came up:

Wilbury Twist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2020, 08:46 PM   #11373
Dick Tracy
old hand
 
Dick Tracy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Mid-West
Posts: 1,413
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpha Fish View Post
obv she was

now the gravy train stopped rolling and she wants 50% of that sweet scam money she's hoping is hidden somewhere
Depends on her moral code.

If Mike has no problem bamboozling other humans out of large quantities of money live on the Internet, there's a good chance she was just another one of his victims at home in different ways.

I mean, there's no way this is the first sh*tty thing he's ever done up to this point in his life.

Never trust a man who dresses as generic as Mike. He should be wearing a red devil costume but instead he dresses like milktoast middle-class sports fan cornball dad #5,192,592
Dick Tracy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-18-2020, 09:42 PM   #11374
deuceblocker
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,263
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Stones presumably paid the plaintiffs some, but probably about actual losses. The plaintiffs weren't in great negotiating shape after the first case was thrown out.
deuceblocker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-19-2020, 07:43 PM   #11375
ejames209
adept
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: 6bet me's no. 1 fan's no. 1 fan
Posts: 1,174
Re: Mike Postle cheating allegations (FAQ in first post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trixie2 View Post
So Mike is paying all legal fees and agreeing not to play at stones ever again apparently.

Way more than I thought would happen.
I'm not allowed to say what the the terms are but I can say that this is not one of them, unless you are referring to something else. Feel free to drop the sauce
ejames209 is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive