Quote:
Originally Posted by pure_aggression
Seems unlikely but, if we are talking about an infinite amount of sessions it is assured. Everyone who has tried the martingale system thinks well it is unlikely to lose like 20 times in a row but if you keep playing eventually it happens.
Im not sure this is correct, you are implying we are assured of going busto when playing an infinite amount of sessions, which implies that risk of ruin is always 100% when playing an infinite amount of sessions.
If this is the case why calculate ror, why even play poker in the first place, were all assured of going busto, no matter our winrate, standard deviation, or bankroll size
Martingale is 50/50 and always doubling down your bet, so obviously it will have a 100% chance of busting, poor comparison...
Say we could make $1 everytime a dice will roll 6,5,4,3, or 2, and we lose $1 everytime it rolls 1. We have a $1000 bankroll. We project this scenario into infinity. Im pretty sure our risk of ruin is not 100%.
Risk of ruin means what is our risk of going busto, given 3 variables:
Winrate
Standard deviation
Bankroll
Lets use my numbers for example:
Wr 42
Std 292
Br 35000
And we come up with 3% ror
Now lets say i plan to play an infinite amount of sessions, but i must withdraw my winnings from my poker roll IF my roll exceeds 35000. Note i can still add profit to my roll, it just cannot exceed 35000. (This may be where our confusion stems from?)
Also i must play the same stakes and never move down, even if my roll gets dangerously low.
This forces the equation to remain static, and the 3% ror may then project into an infinite # of sessions.
I believe in that scenario, given an infinite # of sessions, my chance of going busto would be 3%, not 100% as you claim.
Like i said im not very knowledgeable regarding risk of ruin, this is just how i believe it works. I could be wrong. Im trying to make sense of what a 3% chance of going busto means. Does it mean 3% if i planned to play an infinite # of sessions given my parameters? Thats what i think it means, am i wrong?
I hope nobody takes what i posted as "truth" im just trying to make sense of ror. I could be totally wrong
Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 02-14-2014 at 04:32 AM.