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 02-17-2014, 04:01 AM #6451 scourrge centurion     Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 175 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Well we kind of have to deal with infinity. Or, estimate how many hands you are going to play over the rest of your life. The infinity, as I already said, is a theoretical. But saying that P(going bust) =/= 1 at time = infinity just because infinity isn't "practical" doesn't make sense. But just for ****s'n'giggles, let's say I play 30 hands/hr for 40 hrs/wk for 50 wks/year for the next 50 yrs of my life: 30hands/hr x 40 hrs/wk x 50 wks/year x 50 years = 3,000,000 hands, or for hourly stuffs, = 100,000 hours Now you can have a blast deciding how likely it is you go bust if you maintain whatever exact win-rate for the rest of your life.
 02-17-2014, 04:13 AM #6452 scourrge centurion     Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 175 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances For whatever it's worth, I just looked at a variance calculator, plugging in: 3,000,000 hands, a win-rate of 30bb/100 (~\$18/hr at 1/2 for example), and a standard deviation of 300bb/100 (no idea how realistic this is though, since I guess I'd have to have data on the standard deviation of approximately 3 and 1/3 hour sessions). Probabilities of downswing >= 50 BI's was ~10%.
02-17-2014, 05:25 AM   #6453
Tumaterminator
HOCKEY!

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 26,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GoodSteak There really aren't any "elite" 1/2 players. Even if there were playing elite hours in elite games would be a lot more important at that level. That said about 3500.
That's what I thought.

02-17-2014, 11:17 PM   #6454
DrChesspain
Guest

Posts: n/a
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Phatty Yes, given enough time, a monkey sitting at a typewriter will eventually, yet randomly, type out the complete works of Shakespeare.
I knew one of these monkeys, and he typed Hamlet.

But there was typo in Act III, Scene1.

Careless ****in monkey!

 02-18-2014, 02:26 PM #6455 Dubey old hand   Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,844 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances how many hours/sessions before Standard deviation/hour becomes a useable statistic?
02-18-2014, 02:35 PM   #6456
iraisetoomuch
banned

Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dubey how many hours/sessions before anyone cares about Standard deviation/hour?
FYP bruh.

Pretty sure if you're making money, you're making money.

If you are trying to use this to predict future gains / losses / swings, don't.
That leads to people putting too much stock into short term results normally.

[x] Keep playing well.
..
..
[x] Profit.
[x] Do coke off a hooker boobs.
[x] Die.

It's a solid plan.

02-20-2014, 02:54 PM   #6457
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,667
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dubey how many hours/sessions before Standard deviation/hour becomes a useable statistic?
Stdev will converge to an accurate number much faster than winrate. But stdev by itself without an accurate winrate really does not mean squat... any useful analysis (downswing potential, etc,) requires an accurate winrate.

 02-20-2014, 04:32 PM #6458 11t Bo Pelini's #1 Fan     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Spewville Posts: 31,421 Is 100 bb/100 a fairly average std dev?
02-20-2014, 04:56 PM   #6459
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,667
Quote:
 Originally Posted by 11t Is 100 bb/100 a fairly average std dev?
I don't have a wide range of samples, but I honestly think that 100bb/100 is low for most games & players (live).

I always thought a compilation of many players / games / stakes would be an interesting analysis to see how variance changes with:

- player style
- buy in structure / depth
- level of game (stakes, etc)

... however, at the end of the day, I think most people are close enough just using the 20+ buy-in rule without even understanding the underlying factors.

 02-20-2014, 04:59 PM #6460 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,667 Plus any real statistician will puke at the notion that we consider poker results to be normally distributed. .. although when left with no other way to analyze expectation / variance, I assert those traditional stats methods are *good enough* vs claiming poker is impossible to trend
02-20-2014, 05:09 PM   #6461
nutinsider
journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 342
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! Plus any real statistician will puke at the notion that we consider poker results to be normally distributed. .. although when left with no other way to analyze expectation / variance, I assert those traditional stats methods are *good enough* vs claiming poker is impossible to trend
Hey bip, assume a 20 dollar straddle every hand in a omaha high only game. Lets say the average stack is 3-5k and their are zero sharks, all droolers. What would you estimate is a healthy roll to withstand the volatility of a 20 dollar bring in with 3-5k stacks?

150kish?

What's the minimum you would say?

 02-20-2014, 05:21 PM #6462 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,667 If playing that game for a living - I would want at least a \$150k roll... but no science behind that - just really a "feel" figure. The RoR scenarios really leave out the fact that when you burn 50% of your roll... you usually aren't going to play well with the remainder - or - if we are smart, we can move down and have X buyins for however many levels down.. To me the bigger factor in roll size is emotional stability and comfort - not risk of ruin... in the game you described you will have \$20k intrasession swings - nevermind what can happen in a bad week or month. The "all droolers" thing - if true - would allow you to play a thinner BR... but that is just a hypothetical table - you won't be the only shark for long if such a game existed.
 02-20-2014, 05:26 PM #6463 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,667 * To be clear - I am not a full time player and I violate bankroll "guidelines" all the time...
 02-20-2014, 05:39 PM #6464 11t Bo Pelini's #1 Fan     Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Spewville Posts: 31,421 Yeah that's why I basically stopped keeping track of stats beyond gubbmint purposes
 02-21-2014, 07:03 AM #6465 jakevegas79 enthusiast     Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 50 \$1-2 game as a side job Hello all. I'm sure this question has been asked a dozen times, but I'm not sure how to properly search for it to find the answers I'm seeking. Just curious if anyone out there is consistently making a profit playing live 1-2 NL? There is a casino I pass on my way home from work (Majestic Star-- Gary, IN) that seems to have a pretty loose 1-2 game judging by other posts on this forum and just from what I saw sitting down at a table last weekend. I've played online micro-stakes for years and have been fairly successful, but I'd like to jump into the live game at this casino as it seems to have profit potential. I'm aware that I'll have to adjust my game to cater to the dynamic of playing the 1-2 game live. Wondering if anyone plays this limit live and if they're making any side cash doing so and also-- if I prove to be a good player in this game-- what my expected win rate could be?
 02-21-2014, 07:15 AM #6466 Gilmour Pooh-Bah     Join Date: May 2013 Location: Norway Posts: 3,930 Re: \$1-2 game as a side job This post maybe belongs in the official winrate thread, but i can answer here anyway and share my thoughts. I have played 1/2 for an extra source of income over the last two years now. It took a long time before i was sure i was really a winning player, but after steady profit over 2 years and many hours played i dont feel like i have to prove anything more to myself. How much you can expect making playing 1/2 at casinogames i probably cant tell you. But you could make good money here as a sidejob, thats no doubt. It all depends on how good of a player you are/will become, and your ability to beat the games. I much prefer juicy homegames, and from my experience homegames are much softer than many casinogames. Also well organized raked homegames is the nutz when it comes to comfort, with better chairs, free drinks and the host making homemade food. By the way i had an online background just as you have, and it took me some time for sure to adapt to live play and dynamics, its a completely different game than online poker. Last year i ended up around 9 k, playing approximetely 3 eight hour sessions a month. Last edited by Gilmour; 02-21-2014 at 07:25 AM.
 02-21-2014, 09:01 AM #6467 jakevegas79 enthusiast     Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 50 Re: \$1-2 game as a side job I appreciate the info. I'm not aware of any home games in my area otherwise I'd probably jump in. The game at this casino I've heard is nice and soft, but its kind of in a bad area which inhibits alot of players from going to it. I've been a gambler at this casino for years and there's always 2 tables of 1-2 going on. I am fairly confidant that over time I can be profitable in this game. Not looking to go pro or anything, just want to make a little extra side cash. I'd rather make that money playing poker instead of getting an actual part time job with a set schedule and bosses and all that other nonsense
02-21-2014, 09:27 AM   #6468
Gilmour
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,930
Re: \$1-2 game as a side job

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jakevegas79 I appreciate the info. I'm not aware of any home games in my area otherwise I'd probably jump in. The game at this casino I've heard is nice and soft, but its kind of in a bad area which inhibits alot of players from going to it. I've been a gambler at this casino for years and there's always 2 tables of 1-2 going on. I am fairly confidant that over time I can be profitable in this game. Not looking to go pro or anything, just want to make a little extra side cash. I'd rather make that money playing poker instead of getting an actual part time job with a set schedule and bosses and all that other nonsense
Yeah, i understand that- much prefer to make some money from poker

All i can advocate is to play to get some experience, and be active in this forum and be open minded to learn from players that are better than you.

Sometimes i have gotten flamed in my hand histories threads, wich can feel harsh for sure. But thats what really got some important learning processes going for me.

 02-23-2014, 08:56 AM #6469 JungleJim123 stranger   Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 4 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Since Jan 20th my run bad I am up \$3k and down \$9k in EV since I started recording. 22.5 Buy ins over 164 hours. This is my 2nd year playing full time and I never thought this would be possible. Not only that I have hit 4 sets this year and lost every time. When I am ahead on the flop. I haven't won a single all in over \$1k this year. I don't think I will ever run good enough to make up for this run bad even over the next few years. Some people Ive now realised are just born unlucky. On top of this I am down another \$20k in EV from live PLO during Oct/Nov/Dec last year. Ive now dropped this game completely as there is way to much luck involved.
 02-23-2014, 09:42 AM #6470 wj94 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 7,718 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances How exactly does one calculate EV in live games? Are you really keeping track of every hand and figuring it all out afterward? Seems like a big waste of time.
02-23-2014, 09:58 AM   #6471
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,037
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JungleJim123 Since Jan 20th my run bad I am up \$3k and down \$9k in EV since I started recording. 22.5 Buy ins over 164 hours. This is my 2nd year playing full time and I never thought this would be possible. Not only that I have hit 4 sets this year and lost every time. When I am ahead on the flop. I haven't won a single all in over \$1k this year. I don't think I will ever run good enough to make up for this run bad even over the next few years. Some people Ive now realised are just born unlucky. On top of this I am down another \$20k in EV from live PLO during Oct/Nov/Dec last year. Ive now dropped this game completely as there is way to much luck involved.
lol...Live EV? Doubt you are calculating it right.

 02-23-2014, 10:39 AM #6472 ashes to ashes veteran     Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 2,137 . Last edited by ashes to ashes; 02-23-2014 at 10:59 AM.
 02-23-2014, 10:54 AM #6473 ashes to ashes veteran     Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 2,137 .
 02-23-2014, 01:49 PM #6474 MackCorl grinder     Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: MI Posts: 456 I don't doubt the variance in this game, but also people (not saying you) really also overestimate how big 1 bad play can multitude on later streets, too many times I have seen a tilting players go broke on a limped pot where they should have never been in the situation in the first place. An article by (I think Ed Miller) talks about these compounding mistakes and the true damage they do. If I am sensing some tilt come on and the blinds are coming to me I get up and go for a walk, hitting awkward pots in the blinds with a tad of entitlement tilt is a disaster waiting to happen.
 02-23-2014, 02:13 PM #6475 BenT07891 old hand     Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Chicago Suburbs, IL Posts: 1,641 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Am I ready for \$2/5? ~\$13/hour over 1300 hours of live \$1/2 full ring. \$10,000 in the bank. My poker BR is the same as my living expenses BR. Stable job that pays \$25/hour with future anticipated pay jump to \$33/hour. 20k in debt for student loans, but the months payment is tiny. Total monthly expenses = ~\$1300.

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