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Old 02-23-2014, 02:16 PM   #6476
MackCorl
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Am I ready for $2/5?

~$13/hour over 1300 hours of live $1/2 full ring.

$10,000 in the bank. My poker BR is the same as my living expenses BR.

Stable job that pays $25/hour with future anticipated pay jump to $33/hour.

20k in debt for student loans, but the months payment is tiny. Total monthly expenses = ~$1300.
10k living and 10k poker BR?

Should be good, take a 5-6 BI shot and if you drop to 7k grind back up and take another shot IMO.
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Old 02-23-2014, 02:19 PM   #6477
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You should be able to win more than $13/hr at 1/2. I would try improving your w/r there first but that's just me.
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Old 02-23-2014, 04:28 PM   #6478
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by JungleJim123 View Post
Since Jan 20th my run bad I am up $3k and down $9k in EV since I started recording. 22.5 Buy ins over 164 hours. This is my 2nd year playing full time and I never thought this would be possible. Not only that I have hit 4 sets this year and lost every time. When I am ahead on the flop.

I haven't won a single all in over $1k this year.

I don't think I will ever run good enough to make up for this run bad even over the next few years.

Some people Ive now realised are just born unlucky. On top of this I am down another $20k in EV from live PLO during Oct/Nov/Dec last year. Ive now dropped this game completely as there is way to much luck involved.
LMFAO you are up 3k in 164 hours this year!?!?! and are whining about runbad. Get back to me after you play another 5k hours or so and then tell me about some serious runbad

most live poker players have zero clue about how bad run bad can get. This is the reason why people tell you to have 6 mos living set aside blah blah blah. Not trying to be a tool here - just giving you a heads up on how sick it can get
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Old 02-23-2014, 05:20 PM   #6479
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Am I ready for $2/5?

~$13/hour over 1300 hours of live $1/2 full ring.

$10,000 in the bank. My poker BR is the same as my living expenses BR.

Stable job that pays $25/hour with future anticipated pay jump to $33/hour.

20k in debt for student loans, but the months payment is tiny. Total monthly expenses = ~$1300.
i'd focus on being a better player
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Old 02-23-2014, 05:51 PM   #6480
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
LMFAO you are up 3k in 164 hours this year!?!?! and are whining about runbad. Get back to me after you play another 5k hours or so and then tell me about some serious runbad

most live poker players have zero clue about how bad run bad can get. This is the reason why people tell you to have 6 mos living set aside blah blah blah. Not trying to be a tool here - just giving you a heads up on how sick it can get
This is so very very true. Most people have no clue how sick and soul crushing a downswing can get. There's nothing that can really prepare you for it until you go through it. But you just have to remind yourself of the massive short term variance in this game.
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Old 02-23-2014, 05:53 PM   #6481
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Originally Posted by BenT07891 View Post
Am I ready for $2/5?

~$13/hour over 1300 hours of live $1/2 full ring.

$10,000 in the bank. My poker BR is the same as my living expenses BR.

Stable job that pays $25/hour with future anticipated pay jump to $33/hour.

20k in debt for student loans, but the months payment is tiny. Total monthly expenses = ~$1300.
How have you improved over the +1k hours? Were you a break even player then gradually improved or do you think that you are a 6.5bb/hr player? If the latter is the case I'm sure you can find leaks in your game that need to be plugged before moving up stakes.

I do suggest that you separate your BR from your life roll in either case.
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Old 02-23-2014, 09:11 PM   #6482
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
You should be able to win more than $13/hr at 1/2. I would try improving your w/r there first but that's just me.
I don't have many poker options where I live, and I am pretty sure the place I play at is tougher than the average poker room. I've come to this conclusion after talking w/ other players who play there and after trying other rooms, including in Vegas.
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Old 02-23-2014, 09:30 PM   #6483
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by captainondeck View Post
How have you improved over the +1k hours? Were you a break even player then gradually improved or do you think that you are a 6.5bb/hr player? If the latter is the case I'm sure you can find leaks in your game that need to be plugged before moving up stakes.

I do suggest that you separate your BR from your life roll in either case.
I definitely have improved over that time. No, I've always been a winning player, started online.
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Old 02-23-2014, 09:35 PM   #6484
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Your rolled easy for most 2/5. Since your a rec player with good job. Dam $1300 nut would be nice.

But $13 hr is a poor winrate. Missing some leaks. Unless the rake is killer.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:17 PM   #6485
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Your rolled easy for most 2/5. Since your a rec player with good job. Dam $1300 nut would be nice.

But $13 hr is a poor winrate. Missing some leaks. Unless the rake is killer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
You should be able to win more than $13/hr at 1/2. I would try improving your w/r there first but that's just me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t View Post
i'd focus on being a better player
Bad advice itt.

criticisms are absurd. Youre telling him what his winrate should be in a game thats you know nothing about -- rake, toughness, how deep it plays, etc.

Even if you are correct, and his winrate "should be" higher than it is, the fact is irrelevant. The only relevant facts to whether it is correct to move up are the effect on his hourly and if the increase in stakes would put past an acceptable threshold of RoR.

It is not a matter of focus. There is no reason that he would be less likely to become a better player if he moves up. (One might argue, in fact, that it is more likely).

Since he is only playing part time, it is quite unlikely that he could make a significant change to his winrate in under a year. The idea of a winning player staying at 1-2 for a year plus when he has sufficient bankroll to move up is pretty ridiculous.
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Old 02-23-2014, 10:59 PM   #6486
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
Bad advice itt.

criticisms are absurd. Youre telling him what his winrate should be in a game thats you know nothing about -- rake, toughness, how deep it plays, etc.

Even if you are correct, and his winrate "should be" higher than it is, the fact is irrelevant. The only relevant facts to whether it is correct to move up are the effect on his hourly and if the increase in stakes would put past an acceptable threshold of RoR.

It is not a matter of focus. There is no reason that he would be less likely to become a better player if he moves up. (One might argue, in fact, that it is more likely).

Since he is only playing part time, it is quite unlikely that he could make a significant change to his winrate in under a year. The idea of a winning player staying at 1-2 for a year plus when he has sufficient bankroll to move up is pretty ridiculous.
I didn't say not to play 2/5, I said if it were me I'd work on improving my w/r at 1/2 first. A solid player should be able to win at least $18-20/hr in any 1/2 game with at least $200 cap and less than $6 rake.
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Old 02-23-2014, 11:00 PM   #6487
mikko
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I stand by my advice.
- low nut
-good job
-10k in bank
-10k roll
-1000hrs of play

If you think your ready for 2/5 then take a stab.

Also stand by fact that $13 winrate is not crushing 1/2. Unless there is super high rake. Obviously variance can play a huge roll to.

Have fun
Hope it works out for you.
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Old 02-23-2014, 11:17 PM   #6488
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by scourrge View Post
For whatever it's worth, I just looked at a variance calculator, plugging in: 3,000,000 hands, a win-rate of 30bb/100 (~$18/hr at 1/2 for example), and a standard deviation of 300bb/100 (no idea how realistic this is though, since I guess I'd have to have data on the standard deviation of approximately 3 and 1/3 hour sessions).

Probabilities of downswing >= 50 BI's was ~10%.
300/100 is insane. I don't think even HU games are that high-variance unless you play a ridiculous lagtard style.

60-80/100 is closer to the mark I think.
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Old 02-24-2014, 12:12 AM   #6489
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by JungleJim123 View Post
Since Jan 20th my run bad I am up $3k and down $9k in EV since I started recording. 22.5 Buy ins over 164 hours. This is my 2nd year playing full time and I never thought this would be possible. Not only that I have hit 4 sets this year and lost every time. When I am ahead on the flop.

I haven't won a single all in over $1k this year.

I don't think I will ever run good enough to make up for this run bad even over the next few years.

Some people Ive now realised are just born unlucky. On top of this I am down another $20k in EV from live PLO during Oct/Nov/Dec last year. Ive now dropped this game completely as there is way to much luck involved.
Lol, up 3k over 164 hours. I'd kill to be up half that. Try going on a $10k in 500 hours downswing and then get back to me. Believe me, it's possible to lose every big pot.
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Old 02-24-2014, 12:27 AM   #6490
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Bad advice itt.

criticisms are absurd. Youre telling him what his winrate should be in a game thats you know nothing about -- rake, toughness, how deep it plays, etc.

Even if you are correct, and his winrate "should be" higher than it is, the fact is irrelevant. The only relevant facts to whether it is correct to move up are the effect on his hourly and if the increase in stakes would put past an acceptable threshold of RoR.

It is not a matter of focus. There is no reason that he would be less likely to become a better player if he moves up. (One might argue, in fact, that it is more likely).

Since he is only playing part time, it is quite unlikely that he could make a significant change to his winrate in under a year. The idea of a winning player staying at 1-2 for a year plus when he has sufficient bankroll to move up is pretty ridiculous.
Your advice is ridiculous imo, he'd be better off taking his excess bankroll and taking a vacation
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Old 02-24-2014, 11:46 AM   #6491
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Aleksei View Post
300/100 is insane. I don't think even HU games are that high-variance unless you play a ridiculous lagtard style.

60-80/100 is closer to the mark I think.
Except that 100bb/hr is a fairly normal/low standard deviation for live low-stakes no limit. You get about 25 hands/hr in a casino, so it takes about 4 hours to get 100 hands in. Not saying I know it would scale like that from 100bb/hr to 300bb/4 hours (it probably doesn't), but it was a conservative estimate.

That the standard deviation would be lower over a 4-hour period than a 1-hour period (live) seems questionable to me.
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Old 02-24-2014, 03:36 PM   #6492
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Originally Posted by scourrge View Post
Except that 100bb/hr is a fairly normal/low standard deviation for live low-stakes no limit. You get about 25 hands/hr in a casino, so it takes about 4 hours to get 100 hands in. Not saying I know it would scale like that from 100bb/hr to 300bb/4 hours (it probably doesn't), but it was a conservative estimate.

That the standard deviation would be lower over a 4-hour period than a 1-hour period (live) seems questionable to me.
It doesnt work that way.

In the example above, you square it, multiply by four then take the square root of the product.

root[(100^2)x4]
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Old 02-24-2014, 04:10 PM   #6493
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Except that 100bb/hr is a fairly normal/low standard deviation for live low-stakes no limit. You get about 25 hands/hr in a casino, so it takes about 4 hours to get 100 hands in. Not saying I know it would scale like that from 100bb/hr to 300bb/4 hours (it probably doesn't), but it was a conservative estimate.

That the standard deviation would be lower over a 4-hour period than a 1-hour period (live) seems questionable to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
It doesnt work that way.

In the example above, you square it, multiply by four then take the square root of the product.

root[(100^2)x4]
I was making a gut-estimation, as I stated. Thanks for point out the math though - I was just being lazy in the moment.
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:44 AM   #6494
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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
lol...Live EV? Doubt you are calculating it right.

Sorry for the runbad though
Yes live EV pretty simple to calculate. Just where your stack should end up based on equites after the hand vs where your stack does end up. Not many ppl know this calculation but its straight from Will Tiptons book.

Much easier to calculate this way. Ive seen every persons hand in an all in this year. Mostly because I have lost.
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Old 02-25-2014, 12:50 AM   #6495
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LMFAO you are up 3k in 164 hours this year!?!?! and are whining about runbad. Get back to me after you play another 5k hours or so and then tell me about some serious runbad

most live poker players have zero clue about how bad run bad can get. This is the reason why people tell you to have 6 mos living set aside blah blah blah. Not trying to be a tool here - just giving you a heads up on how sick it can get
I see what you are saying, and even tried to do some research of online people running this bad. $9k (22.5 buy ins) under EV in like 2000-3000 hands, even that was hard to find.


I do not see how it could get worse than this. So you think 50 buy ins below EV will happen. I highly doubt that and I even checked via the variance calculator and from what I remember that is next to impossible in live, considering a certain win rate.
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Old 02-25-2014, 02:20 AM   #6496
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Originally Posted by JungleJim123 View Post
I see what you are saying, and even tried to do some research of online people running this bad. $9k (22.5 buy ins) under EV in like 2000-3000 hands, even that was hard to find.


I do not see how it could get worse than this. So you think 50 buy ins below EV will happen. I highly doubt that and I even checked via the variance calculator and from what I remember that is next to impossible in live, considering a certain win rate.
I don't think squid was saying specifically that your AIEV was not that bad.

However, in llnl AIEV simply is not that important of a stat. You are clearly running OK enough otherwise so that you are still in the black.
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Old 02-25-2014, 11:10 AM   #6497
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
Bad advice itt.

criticisms are absurd. Youre telling him what his winrate should be in a game thats you know nothing about -- rake, toughness, how deep it plays, etc.

Even if you are correct, and his winrate "should be" higher than it is, the fact is irrelevant. The only relevant facts to whether it is correct to move up are the effect on his hourly and if the increase in stakes would put past an acceptable threshold of RoR.

It is not a matter of focus. There is no reason that he would be less likely to become a better player if he moves up. (One might argue, in fact, that it is more likely).

Since he is only playing part time, it is quite unlikely that he could make a significant change to his winrate in under a year. The idea of a winning player staying at 1-2 for a year plus when he has sufficient bankroll to move up is pretty ridiculous.
+1

Ben,

You never have to play either 1/2 or 2/5. You can always just show up and look at the games and decide to sit in the better one.

I would certainly not wait any longer to test the waters of the 2/5 pool. Play 10% of your sessions at 2/5 until you see how well you do.

Saying that you need to bet 1/2 for X win rate before you can (occasionally) play in bigger games is not helpful.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If your living expenses are $1300/mo, and you have $10k in a savings account (that you never, ever, ever, touch), you have just a bare minimum in emergency funds, IMO. 6 months of emergency funds was considered a good buffer for monsoon season, however, the world seems to be working against you now so I would encourage you to save another $5k as soon as possible. Try to get like 12-15 months of expenses saved up and safe.
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Old 02-25-2014, 02:55 PM   #6498
Turyia
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Your advice is ridiculous imo, he'd be better off taking his excess bankroll and taking a vacation
the only advice that i gave is that he should play the game that figures to make him the most money without crossing a threshold of acceptable RoR. This seems like good advice to me. Certainly better than selecting the game he plays based on the opinions of a bunch of people on the internet that his winrate in a game they have never played in and know nothing about except the amount of the blinds does not make him worthy to move up in stakes.

He certainly could use his "excess bankroll" to take a vacation. He could use it as a down payment on gender re-assignment surgery. Or to buy about 2.25 ounces of cocaine. Or he could use it to play 2/5. What he would be "better off" doing seems like it would be a function of what is more important to him. Based on his post, i assumed that was moving up and seeing if he could beat 2/5.

If he had posted. "Man, i really need a vaction, do you guys think I can spend couple of grand out of my bankroll to take one." or "Wow. I sure wish I had a vagina and ample breasts rather than this penis" or "The DT's are starting to kick in, i could sure use some nose candy" i probably would have posted that he should pursue these interests.

That said, its unlikely that a 6bb/hr winner at 1/2 would figure to have a negative expectation at 2/5. So hes only "spending" this money by moving up in the sense that it would continue to be tied up in his bankroll.
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Old 02-25-2014, 06:45 PM   #6499
SammyZ
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Total Won: $8,035
Hours: 175
Edit: graph doesn't show the -$800 over the last 10.5HRS

That's from 1/22-2/23 mostly playing $2/$3 $1-$300 buy in (130hrs +7.3k), and 27hrs was at $1/$2 $40-$100 buy in (-$71). I dislike the $1/$2 and only played it while waiting for the $2/$3 or if the $2/3 game looked really bad. I will probably stay away from it & just wait from now on..
I plan to grind this game for a while (200-800 more hrs) to build up my bankroll and get a decent idea of what my true win rate is in the game.
After that I want to try out the $3-$500 buy in games in LA (bicycle/commerce) and take some shots at live Mtts.
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Old 02-25-2014, 09:26 PM   #6500
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How big does that $2/$3 game play? It's only 100bb max buy-in, so I'm guessing you're either on a big heater, or people are rebuying like mad and letting stacks get really deep (or some combination). Congrats on a sick win-rate so far.

Also, what is the blind structure for the $300-$500 buyin games in LA? $2/$5? I remember hearing something about them, and the fact that they are referred to by the buyin range, but I don't remember what that limit would be.
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