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Old 01-06-2014, 11:29 AM   #6126
oh-nahhh
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

sigh I need to step my game up then... I'm barely at 100 hours lol

after I hit 500, are we posting screen shots/giraffes ITT?
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Old 01-06-2014, 11:48 AM   #6127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
im not sure you understand the "mathmatics"... your statement is untrue.
Sick how much I've been getting leveled on this forum lately. I build linear regression models 10 hours a day dude.

The general consensus for mean win rate is that the CLT applies at a sample of about 100K hands. That is to say your distribution approaches a normal curve around 100K mark. When online fr cash players looked at their databases, 100K samples accurately reflected their 1 million plus hands. 30K hands, even 50K hands still were not as normally distributed as one would desire. There is a lot of variance in a 10K spree of hands.

That said, even then your mean wr is not entirely accurate. As you improve your game over time your bb/100 can increase, so the mean for an improving player actually constantly moves to the right of the curve. This of course has quickly diminishing returns, but it is still important to note.

1000 hours is about 30K hands, so yea.

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500 hours is not sufficient to provide a very high level of confidence or pinpoint your precise winrate, but it is certainly statistically meaningful.
No.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:34 PM   #6128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Sick how much I've been getting leveled on this forum lately. I build linear regression models 10 hours a day dude.

The general consensus for mean win rate is that the CLT applies at a sample of about 100K hands. That is to say your distribution approaches a normal curve around 100K mark. When online fr cash players looked at their databases, 100K samples accurately reflected their 1 million plus hands. 30K hands, even 50K hands still were not as normally distributed as one would desire. There is a lot of variance in a 10K spree of hands.

That said, even then your mean wr is not entirely accurate. As you improve your game over time your bb/100 can increase, so the mean for an improving player actually constantly moves to the right of the curve. This of course has quickly diminishing returns, but it is still important to note.

1000 hours is about 30K hands, so yea.



No.

Assuming hands/hour estimations are correct for live play, this post is true at p < .001.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:41 PM   #6129
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LOL, my 500 hour blocks could vary as much as 7bb/hr from one to another, and that's within one year period.

Good luck, guys.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:41 PM   #6130
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Also, as an aside, there's something I've been considering lately. I'm not sure if it's been discussed elsewhere. If it has, I haven't seen it.

Of course, total profit in poker can (and should) be linear. However, it seems to me that when talking about winrate only (e.g., $/hour) for a particular game (e.g., 1/2 only), when moving up the poker ladder, that winrate takes on a nonlinear trend -- particularly logistic -- as a player approaches the time in which he or she should move up to the next stakes game. In other words, their winrate will asymptote at some relative ceiling. I don't know if this is true in practice, or if it has any practical applications to modeling a player's performance as they move up, but it's something I've been thinking about lately.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:43 PM   #6131
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LOL, my 500 hour blocks could vary as much as 7bb/hr from one to another.
This is likely due to differences in variance as a function of individual player differences. I've thought for a long time that poker trends should be modeled as multilevel regression models (which takes into account trends over time as a function of individual differences) as opposed to basic linear regression (which essentially assumes that all players are equal).
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:59 PM   #6132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Sick how much I've been getting leveled on this forum lately. I build linear regression models 10 hours a day dude.

The general consensus for mean win rate is that the CLT applies at a sample of about 100K hands. That is to say your distribution approaches a normal curve around 100K mark. When online fr cash players looked at their databases, 100K samples accurately reflected their 1 million plus hands. 30K hands, even 50K hands still were not as normally distributed as one would desire. There is a lot of variance in a 10K spree of hands.

That said, even then your mean wr is not entirely accurate. As you improve your game over time your bb/100 can increase, so the mean for an improving player actually constantly moves to the right of the curve. This of course has quickly diminishing returns, but it is still important to note.

1000 hours is about 30K hands, so yea.



No.
online players have a much lower winrate, and consequently a much higher relative standard deviation, and that means they need a much larger sample size to get meaningful results, no?
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Old 01-06-2014, 03:43 PM   #6133
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Total for the year 2013....





Just 2/5 NL...clearly playing mixed games and PLO is killing my win rate!



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Old 01-06-2014, 03:55 PM   #6134
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^^^^

16.5 bb/hr, sweet 2/5 NL winrate Slim!

Too bad your other games you're "only" winning at ~$20.50/hr.

GniceresultsG
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Old 01-06-2014, 04:02 PM   #6135
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Total for the year 2013....





Just 2/5 NL...clearly playing mixed games and PLO is killing my win rate!



Can't imagine PLO ever killing a win rate. Limit games are of course understandable.
Very nice work.
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Old 01-06-2014, 04:26 PM   #6136
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^^^^

16.5 bb/hr, sweet 2/5 NL winrate Slim!

Too bad your other games you're "only" winning at ~$20.50/hr.

GniceresultsG
Thanks obv fish on a heater

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Can't imagine PLO ever killing a win rate. Limit games are of course understandable.
Very nice work.
Thanks. Yeah I ran poorly in some big PLO pots the last 2 months or so and yeah I played some 10/20 and 20/40 limit games through the middle of the year.
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Old 01-06-2014, 04:38 PM   #6137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
In terms of actual mathmatics 1,500 to 2,000 hours would provide a meaningful sample

In terns of realizing if you can beat droolers in live poker, you should have a good feel at 500 hours imo. Feel and win rate are two different things here. Your wr is meaningless at 500 hours.
Trying to figure out the mathematics of a winrate in poker is damn near impossible because the variables are always changing. What we're actually looking for are common sense approximations and even then, what does 500 hours really tell you?

Do you know how I know I'm a winner in my games? It's not based on hours played, profits, standard deviations, or any formulas. It's because players say things like "I always move allin with aces so they don't get cracked" or "I know you got a full house, but I got to see it" followed by me showing them a full house and taking most of their stack and online I've had two different donks CALL and lose their 100bb stack allin on a double paired board because they couldn't fold a flush. You get the idea ...

Truth be told, with the right players, there's probably a live 1/2 game somewhere at some point in time that's so tough, 99% of the players here couldn't beat it on average. On the other side of the coin, there's probably a 10/20 game somewhere at some point that's so easy that 99% of the people here can beat it. Poker is about beating players or in some cases just A player.

Again, unless you play in live or online games where the variables don't change much, you're just making a best guess outside of a vacuum.

The key to winning imo is #1 having a bankroll and #2 game selecting. You may be rolled for 2/5 and a winner in that game, but the best game may be a 1/3 game. 5/10 may be your standard/winning game and TWICE you've tried to take a shot at 10/20 and failed, but if you have the bankroll and the RIGHT, good, juicy game opens up, you should take a seat imo.

Bankroll is just so important so you can #1 handle the swings and #2 not be affected by moving up or down. If you have $50k, there's no 2/5 game that should ever intimidate you since you have 100 buy-ins. Now, if you only have $10k ... well, it better be a very juicy game and even if it is, variance in the short term can sometimes take out a player making all the right moves.
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Old 01-06-2014, 06:17 PM   #6138
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wow the average IQ level ITT is definitely a good 20 points higher than in the strat threads.... let's start posting hands here and having a password to access this thread imo
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Old 01-06-2014, 06:29 PM   #6139
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wow the average IQ level ITT is definitely a good 20 points higher than in the strat threads.... let's start posting hands here and having a password to access this thread imo
Just stalk Avaritia and pay attention to everything.
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Old 01-11-2014, 03:38 AM   #6140
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Originally Posted by Phatty View Post
Trying to figure out the mathematics of a winrate in poker is damn near impossible because the variables are always changing. What we're actually looking for are common sense approximations and even then, what does 500 hours really tell you?

Do you know how I know I'm a winner in my games? It's not based on hours played, profits, standard deviations, or any formulas. It's because players say things like "I always move allin with aces so they don't get cracked" or "I know you got a full house, but I got to see it" followed by me showing them a full house and taking most of their stack and online I've had two different donks CALL and lose their 100bb stack allin on a double paired board because they couldn't fold a flush. You get the idea ...

Truth be told, with the right players, there's probably a live 1/2 game somewhere at some point in time that's so tough, 99% of the players here couldn't beat it on average. On the other side of the coin, there's probably a 10/20 game somewhere at some point that's so easy that 99% of the people here can beat it. Poker is about beating players or in some cases just A player.

Again, unless you play in live or online games where the variables don't change much, you're just making a best guess outside of a vacuum.

The key to winning imo is #1 having a bankroll and #2 game selecting. You may be rolled for 2/5 and a winner in that game, but the best game may be a 1/3 game. 5/10 may be your standard/winning game and TWICE you've tried to take a shot at 10/20 and failed, but if you have the bankroll and the RIGHT, good, juicy game opens up, you should take a seat imo.

Bankroll is just so important so you can #1 handle the swings and #2 not be affected by moving up or down. If you have $50k, there's no 2/5 game that should ever intimidate you since you have 100 buy-ins. Now, if you only have $10k ... well, it better be a very juicy game and even if it is, variance in the short term can sometimes take out a player making all the right moves.
Wonderful post.
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Old 01-13-2014, 11:03 PM   #6141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
In terms of actual mathmatics 1,500 to 2,000 hours would provide a meaningful sample
In terns of realizing if you can beat droolers in live poker, you should have a good feel at 500 hours imo. Feel and win rate are two different things here. Your wr is meaningless at 500 hours.
So a couple questions for you or anyone. I imagine the minimum meaningful sample size should change depending on if you are playing NL vs Limit correct? What are your thoughts on this? I presume you are saying 500/1.5k-2.5k for no limit correct?
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Old 01-13-2014, 11:11 PM   #6142
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So a couple questions for you or anyone. I imagine the minimum meaningful sample size should change depending on if you are playing NL vs Limit correct? What are your thoughts on this? I presume you are saying 500/1.5k-2.5k for no limit correct?
I'd have to presume that getting a meaningful sample at limit is much easier as your win/loss per hand is much much lower. You can't have -200BB hands in limit (well, you can but that just seems stupid...) and obv you won't have +200 BB hands either. Therefor variance is lower, so your sample size has to be smaller to get a more accurate result.

And yes, the 1.5k+ is for no limit.
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Old 01-13-2014, 11:19 PM   #6143
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ok so. for a limit how many are we thinking?

Specifically for me Im thinking of my 2/5-100 Spread Limit game. It's a lower variance game (with expected lower winrate... more on this later maybe)... any ideas? I started keeping good records with pokerjournal only 3 months ago <300hrs and I have a feel that I am a winning player.
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Old 01-14-2014, 01:25 AM   #6144
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Variance is not lower in LHE fwiw
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Old 01-14-2014, 11:50 AM   #6145
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Yeah - limit is higher variance per win rate compared to NLHE... so it actually takes longer to determine any meaningful stats.
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:33 PM   #6146
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what? no limit by definition has more variance... if variance has anything to do with SD of returns... 1/2 limit will have less variance then returns then 1/2 NL... you can't compare 2/5 NL with 30/60 limit and say that 30/60 has more variance? its apples to oranges... I know for a fact that my 2/5 100 spread returns certainly show less variance then my 2/5 NL returns just from a life of poker without having really a huge data set.
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:35 PM   #6147
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Limit is much higher variance ainec

Like the swings for 30 $/hr for nlhe vs limit, limit is way way higher
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:43 PM   #6148
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hmmm. i guess im wrong. i don't know how. It seems I face a few sick all in situations in day seemingly every time I play NLHE and seem to take massive beatings and massive wins in NL.... I've played way more hours in spread games and for it to go bad huge one way or the other its really an outlier... not sure what im missing though
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:45 PM   #6149
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Slippery....Read again... "per winrate".

Variance by itself means squat... variance / WR is what determines downswing potential.

20/40 limit player with a $50/hr WR is going to require a bigger bankroll than 2/5 NL player with a $50/hr WR.

NL is not a swingy game when compared to many other forms of +EV gambling. Although, LO8 is about the most BR friendly game...
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Old 01-14-2014, 12:54 PM   #6150
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ok, maybe i get it now... so a 2/5 100 Spread game is a lower win rate, lower bankroll game then 2/5 NL... so while the SD of 2/5 NL will be larger then 2/5 100 spread... the 2/5 100 spread will have a higher variance then a comparable maybe 1/2 NL game?
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