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Old 03-05-2014, 10:20 PM   #6626
Atmu2006
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My record is 60 hours and it was idiotic.
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:25 PM   #6627
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Coming up on 700 hours live 2/5nl. Meaningfulness of winrate?
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:41 PM   #6628
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Coming up on 700 hours live 2/5nl. Meaningfulness of winrate?
3.5x as meaningful as my near 200 hours at $1/2 NL
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:41 PM   #6629
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Coming up on 700 hours live 2/5nl. Meaningfulness of winrate?


Better than nothing. But not terribly meaningful. Think I've had break even streaks (500 hours) that are nearly as long as your sample. But I also play mostly omaha.
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:56 PM   #6630
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Coming up on 700 hours live 2/5nl. Meaningfulness of winrate?
Almost worthless but you'll have a good idea if you are a winning player
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:56 PM   #6631
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Better than nothing. But not terribly meaningful. Think I've had break even streaks (500 hours) that are nearly as long as your sample. But I also play mostly omaha.
From what I understand variance in those two are entirely different beasts. Just starting to learn plo
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Old 03-06-2014, 06:04 PM   #6632
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Almost worthless but you'll have a good idea if you are a winning player
How many hours at live to determine if you are a winning player? With nearly 200 hours my WR still jumps all over the place depending on the session. Currently running well at $40/hr over my last 50 hours.
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Old 03-06-2014, 06:34 PM   #6633
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How many hours at live to determine if you are a winning player? With nearly 200 hours my WR still jumps all over the place depending on the session. Currently running well at $40/hr over my last 50 hours.
maybe 600 hours but I just wouldn't worry about winrate.
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Old 03-06-2014, 07:11 PM   #6634
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Almost worthless but you'll have a good idea if you are a winning player
My Guess: 95% winrate accuracy brackets +- ~$10 at 1000 hours live 2/5nl?

Any idea how to mathematically calculate this, and anyone else's take?
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Old 03-06-2014, 07:47 PM   #6635
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My Guess: 95% winrate accuracy brackets +- ~$10 at 1000 hours live 2/5nl?

Any idea how to mathematically calculate this, and anyone else's take?
Can be done but 1000 hours is like 20,000 to 30,000 hands. I'd suggest looking playing around with this.
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:25 AM   #6636
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just about hit the 1000 hour mark with PokerJournal. Didn't think early w/r was sustainable, but have been averaging a pretty consistent 15bb/hr at 2/5.

Granted my local casino is a bit behind the times when it comes to poker theorists and innovative minds, so not fully sure if results would be similar in Vegas/AC (granted I wouldn't be playing 2/5 if there was a bigger option, but still...)

Anyway, here are some quick screen grabs of data.









I'll go more in depth if anyone cares when time permits and answer any questions I can. Have already posted a bit about my style earlier ITT.
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:32 AM   #6637
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sick results
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:55 AM   #6638
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Very nice work wj94 and King Fish! Thanks for the link 11t
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:57 AM   #6639
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Thanks for the link 11t. Well done kingfish
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Old 03-07-2014, 03:25 AM   #6640
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How do I figure out my standard deviation? I don't have poker journal, just an excel sheet with session results.
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Old 03-07-2014, 03:49 AM   #6641
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nasty results king fish. That is absolutely crushing. Well done sir
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Old 03-07-2014, 03:58 AM   #6642
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Originally Posted by King Fish View Post
Just about hit the 1000 hour mark with PokerJournal. Didn't think early w/r was sustainable, but have been averaging a pretty consistent 15bb/hr at 2/5.

Granted my local casino is a bit behind the times when it comes to poker theorists and innovative minds, so not fully sure if results would be similar in Vegas/AC (granted I wouldn't be playing 2/5 if there was a bigger option, but still...)

Anyway, here are some quick screen grabs of data.









I'll go more in depth if anyone cares when time permits and answer any questions I can. Have already posted a bit about my style earlier ITT.
Congrats.

That's an amazing rate over that sample in hold em Any plo?
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Old 03-07-2014, 04:00 AM   #6643
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Originally Posted by ECGrinder View Post
My Guess: 95% winrate accuracy brackets +- ~$10 at 1000 hours live 2/5nl?

Any idea how to mathematically calculate this, and anyone else's take?
Yea I think it would be 1.96*std/sqrt(n), n = number of hours played
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Old 03-07-2014, 04:03 AM   #6644
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Originally Posted by corlath View Post
How do I figure out my standard deviation? I don't have poker journal, just an excel sheet with session results.
I use this post

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25.../#post12876896

and I think it gives the same number as poker journal
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Old 03-07-2014, 04:08 AM   #6645
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Originally Posted by King Fish View Post
Just about hit the 1000 hour mark with PokerJournal. Didn't think early w/r was sustainable, but have been averaging a pretty consistent 15bb/hr at 2/5.

Granted my local casino is a bit behind the times when it comes to poker theorists and innovative minds, so not fully sure if results would be similar in Vegas/AC (granted I wouldn't be playing 2/5 if there was a bigger option, but still...)

Anyway, here are some quick screen grabs of data.









I'll go more in depth if anyone cares when time permits and answer any questions I can. Have already posted a bit about my style earlier ITT.
Where do you play?
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Old 03-07-2014, 06:16 AM   #6646
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lol. Sick 70% winning sessions - do they just close their eyes and push their chips around???

It's always been my impression that without playing super long average sessions, winning players tend to have somewhere around 55:45 or 60:40 wins:losses. (Looks like you average 3.6 hours/session, which isn't really that long.)
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Old 03-07-2014, 06:44 AM   #6647
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Lol. Sick 70% winning sessions - do they just close their eyes and push their chips around???

It's always been my impression that without playing super long average sessions, winning players tend to have somewhere around 55:45 or 60:40 wins:losses. (Looks like you average 3.6 hours/session, which isn't really that long.)

55 seems low. I'm at 64% over a reasonably relevant sample. Average session is 6-7 hours. In theory, the longer your session, the more likely your % winning sessions rises. Assuming you don't tilt. =]. That being said. My longest session was 17 hours and I got smoked.
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Old 03-07-2014, 06:46 AM   #6648
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Originally Posted by scourrge View Post
Lol. Sick 70% winning sessions - do they just close their eyes and push their chips around???

It's always been my impression that without playing super long average sessions, winning players tend to have somewhere around 55:45 or 60:40 wins:losses. (Looks like you average 3.6 hours/session, which isn't really that long.)
I think good players should be around 65-75% winning sessions. I think I had 72% over like 300 sessions last year. Around 67% this year
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:29 AM   #6649
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Originally Posted by King Fish View Post
Just about hit the 1000 hour mark with PokerJournal. Didn't think early w/r was sustainable, but have been averaging a pretty consistent 15bb/hr at 2/5.

Granted my local casino is a bit behind the times when it comes to poker theorists and innovative minds, so not fully sure if results would be similar in Vegas/AC (granted I wouldn't be playing 2/5 if there was a bigger option, but still...)

Anyway, here are some quick screen grabs of data.









I'll go more in depth if anyone cares when time permits and answer any questions I can. Have already posted a bit about my style earlier ITT.
How in the hell do you avg $70+ hr 1/2 in that sample. Did you seperate the red sea? Walk on water?
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:49 AM   #6650
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Where do you play?
North east US. Easy enough to figure out my primary casino from posting history (when not trolling BBV )

Quote:
Originally Posted by scourrge View Post
Lol. Sick 70% winning sessions - do they just close their eyes and push their chips around???

It's always been my impression that without playing super long average sessions, winning players tend to have somewhere around 55:45 or 60:40 wins:losses. (Looks like you average 3.6 hours/session, which isn't really that long.)
Answer to part A: pretty much yes.
Results somewhat skewed by 1/2 (which included a 20- game WS and another in the high teens). 2/5 WR is about 66%.

Season averages are also probably skewed by 1/2, as I generally leave the table when a 2/5 gets going and sessions there tend to be shorter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dajugganot View Post
How in the hell do you avg $70+ hr 1/2 in that sample. Did you seperate the red sea? Walk on water?
I usually only play 1/2 while waiting on a 2/5 seat, and this is the softest 1/2 I have ever played. Hands are played fairly face up.

Also I am quite aggro in general in 2/5 (as the SD seems to show), and players just assume I play the same game every day no adjustments. In truth I know the players well enough now to tailor my game to specific tables, players, instances etc.

At 1/2 I generally just build lots of small pots IP, abandon as needed, then jam and get called (because of false image) when I have the nuts. A decent number of players fear me because they know every confrontation could be playing for stacks and they let me walk over them. Others use that perception to try to get it all in with me light as they think I'll just call everything with any pair or draw.

Truth is the room is in a bit of a poker time warp and the players think they are exploiting my tendencies when in fact it is the other way around. I even get bumhunted sometimes by absolutely awful players who just don't grasp or understand what I am doing and how I manage to be so consistently "lucky."

I do what I can to give each player the desired image of me he/she wants. But reality and perception have no real correlation to each other. I consider this "marketing."

While I don't think the WR is sustainable over a significant sample, I do think $50/hr is doable AT THIS PARTICULAR CASINO.

It really is like playing them with their cards exposed. It takes a decent amount of bad luck to lose at 1/2 there, IMO.
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